Update: 3/14
Well the race for the one seeds is starting to clear up, for me Villanova's loss yesterday took them out of the running absent a huge run of upsets in the conference tournaments. The first 3 teams (Arizona, Florida, and Wichita St.) are all locked in, for the last spot I give the slight edge to the ACC tournament winner assuming its one of the (Syracuse, Duke, and UVA) after that I think if Michigan or WIsconsin win the B1G tournament the committee will give them strong consideration.
Arizona: 29-3 RPI: 1, SOS: 8, 10-2 vs RPI Top 50, 16-3 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 1, Sagarin: 1
Florida: 29-2 RPI: 2, SOS: 23, 7-2 vs RPI Top 50, 14-2 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 3, Sagarin: 3
Wichita St: 33-0 RPI: 4, SOS: 109, 3-0 vs RPI Top 50, 10-0 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 4, Sagarin: 12
Contenders:
Wisconsin 25-6, RPI: 5, SOS: 4, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 16-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 12, Sagarin; 10
Michigan 23-7 RPI: 11, SOS: 9, 9-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 13-6 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 10, Sagarin: 7
Syracuse: 27-4 RPI: 9, SOS: 72, 7-2 vs RPI Top 50, 15-2 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom:11, Sagarin: 16
Virginia: 25-6 RPI: 12, SOS: 43, 4-3 vs RPI Top 50, 11-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom:5, Sagarin: 9
Duke: 24-7 RPI: 7, SOS: 6, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 7, Sagarin: 4
As of 3/14 my S-Curve for the top 20 would be as follows:
1 seeds - 1: Florida 2: Arizona 3: Wichita St. 4: Michigan
2 seeds - 5:Syracuse 6: Duke 7:Kansas 8:Wisconsin
3 seeds - 9: Virginia 10: Louisville 11:Iowa St. 12: Villanova
4 seeds - 13:Creighton 14:San Diego St. 15: Cincinnati 16: UNC
Leaving the Regions to set up:
1: Florida, 2: Wisconsin. 3: Virginia, 4: UNC
1: Arizona, 2: Kansas 3: Louisville. 4: Cincinnati
1: Wichita St., 2: Duke, 3: Iowa St., 4: San Diego St.
1: Michigan., 2: Syracuse, 3: Villanova., 4:Creighton
UNC 23-8, RPI: 20, SOS: 17, 5-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 11-5 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 23, Sagarin: 25 - Projections: Lunardi - 4 seed, Palm - 5 seed
-Big game for UNC today against Pitt, a win there would place them solidly in he top 16 setting them up for a opportunity to play UVA/FSU for a chance to go to the ACC title game.
UMass 24-7 RPI: 16, SOS: 49, 6-3 vs. RPI Top 50, 13-6 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 48, Sagarin: 47 - Projections: Lunardi - 8 seed, Palm - 7 seed
-UMass avoided what would have been a terrible loss yesterday, storming back to beat Rhode Island. While a loss yesterday wouldn't have put their tournament future at risk, it would have killed their seeding. UMass plays GW today in the A10 quarterfinals, a win or a loss their shouldn't move where they are seeded too muc. UMass would likely need to make to the conference finals if they want to drastically improve their seed.
UConn 24-7 RPI: 26, SOS: 63, 6-4 vs. RPI Top 50, 10-6 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom: 22, Sagarin: 24 - Projections: Lunardi - 6 seed, Palm - 5 seed
-While UConn wasn't able to knock off Louisville on the road last week, the Huskies were able to pick up a quality win last night against Memphis. Their win last night sets up another match up against Cincinnati, a win there and UConn will likely start to sniff a 4 seed. A loss would leave them in their current 5/6 range.
Providence 21-11 RPI: 51, SOS: 76, 2-6 vs. RPI Top 50, 7-10 vs. RPI Top 100, KenPom:49, Sagarin: 50 - Projections: Lunardi - 12 seed (Play-in), Palm - 12 seed (Play-in game)
-There's been a ton of discussion regarding the Friars tournament worthiness. It was assumed if the Providence was able to pick up 2 Big East tournament wins they would pick up that last quality win and be in but Seton Hall threw a wrench into that plan. While a win over the Pirates today wouldn't guarantee them a spot, a loss would almost definitely send them to the NIT. If Providence does win they should be rooting for teams like FSU and Minnesota to lose today, as both of those teams have a chance to pick up quality wins that should move them ahead of the Friars.
Other Bubble games today
Missouri vs. Florida - A Missouri win over Florida wouldn't put the Tigers into the field but it would at least bring them into the conversation.
Michigan vs. Illinois - While Michigan can keep their hopes for a 1 seed alive with a win today, a win over the Wolverines would make them 5-8 vs the top 50 and keep their slim hopes alive. Realistically Illinois would need to make the conference tournament finals to really be in the conversation.
Florida St. vs UVA - The Seminoles, currently in Lunardi's first four out, won't have much time to savor their last second win over Maryland. A win over UVA today would put the FSU safely in the field. A loss will more than likely end their tournament dreams
Minnesota vs. Wisconsin - While I think the Gophers and their Top 10 SOS warrant a tournament berth, guys like Lunardi and Palm don't agree. Minnesota is currently listed in Lunardi's first four out and like FSU have a opportunity to pick up a quality win that should move them into the field.