2013-14 Bracketology

mabrowndog · Mar 14, 2014

Yeah, I'm with WBV here. Cal is toast.

They've been mediocre all season, and happened to put together a nice little 6-game winning streak between Christmas & mid-January. To their credit, they pulled off the huge W over Arizona, but if not for that we wouldn't even be talking about them. The Bears won just 2 of their last 7, with one of the W's over last-place USC. And a month ago they needed OT to beat 11th-place WASU. So really, since that upset over the Wildcats, the only things they can point to are a 14-pt win at Washington and an OT win over the Buffs at home.

mabrowndog · Mar 14, 2014

I posted about this in the conference tournament thread, but is anyone else here bothered by the Nebraska-Minnesota issue? The Huskers finished 3 games ahead in the standings. But two of those games can arguably be attributed to the unbalanced schedule. Nebraska played its 2 extra games against Illinois & Indiana, while Minnesota had its two extras against Iowa and Wisconsin. The Huskers' head-to-head win over UM was at home, and by just 4 pts. Play that game in Minneapolis, and there's no guarantee the outcome is the same. So there's your 3-game advantage.

The kicker is how it affected the tournament bracket. The Gophers had to win a first-round game (over PSU), and are rewarded for that with their third game of the season against Wisconsin, a near-lock for a national 2-seed. The Huskers not only get a bye, but play Ohio State in their opener.

The Gophers should be in regardless of how they do against the Badgers, but because of the scheduling anomalies, most observers merely see a sub-.500, 7th-place team in the standings.

twothousandone · Mar 14, 2014

mabrowndog said:
I posted about this in the conference tournament thread, but is anyone else here bothered by the Nebraska-Minnesota issue? The Huskers finished 3 games ahead in the standings. But two of those games can arguably be attributed to the unbalanced schedule. Nebraska played its 2 extra games against Illinois & Indiana, while Minnesota had its two extras against Iowa and Wisconsin. The Huskers' head-to-head win over UM was at home, and by just 4 pts. Play that game in Minneapolis, and there's no guarantee the outcome is the same. So there's your 3-game advantage.

The kicker is how it affected the tournament bracket. The Gophers had to win a first-round game (over PSU), and are rewarded for that with their third game of the season against Wisconsin, a near-lock for a national 2-seed. The Huskers not only get a bye, but play Ohio State in their opener.

The Gophers should be in regardless of how they do against the Badgers, but because of the scheduling anomalies, most observers merely see a sub-.500, 7th-place team in the standings.

You'r saying if they both lose today, Nebraska is in, Minnesota is out, and the unbalanced schedule unfairly hurts Minnesota?

I'm not all that bothered by it. I'll argue that Nebraska played their way into a much better tournament situation by beating Wisconsin. Minnesota split against Wisconsin.It was only that second Wisconsin game made Minnesota's road tougher (versus Nebraska against Indiana). Iowa and Illinois aren't all that different If it was a single game in the standings, I might feel bad for Minnesota (nah. I have no feelings for Minnesota, at all. That'll never change.)

Minnesota was 2-6 against top 25 teams. They get a ton of opportunities given the strength of the Big Ten. Nebraska was 3-6.
St, Joe's is 2-4 against top 25.
Dayton is 3-2.
Xavier is 2-3.
Providence is 1-5.

Minnesota had chances, more chances than many, and didn't take advantage of enough of them. They also split with Purdue and Northwestern.

tims4wins · Mar 14, 2014

Dgilpin said:
1: Wichita St., 2: Duke, 3: Iowa St., 4: San Diego St.

Obviously this will never happen, but holy crap is that a dream scenario for Duke

tims4wins · Mar 14, 2014

So cross off KU and Cuse. Down to Duke UVa Michigan and Wisconsin.

DukeSox · Mar 14, 2014

Big 10 guy won't get it

tims4wins · Mar 15, 2014

With losses in 2 of last 4 is Arizona in any danger of losing a 1 seed? Could Louisville and Duke snatch it away?

tims4wins · Mar 15, 2014

Dgilpin said:
Doubtful , Louisville has 5 top 50 wins and 3 of them are against UConn.

Even with this loss Zona will have top 10 - RPI & SOS . And will be 11-3 vs the top 50 and 17-4 vs the top 100 . Body of work is too great

If Duke wins tomorrow are they the last one, with Louisville the first two? Or is Michigan 5 on the S curve if they win?

tims4wins · Mar 16, 2014

That 3 seed line is crazy. All of those teams had a shot at a one seed on Thursday.

mabrowndog · Mar 16, 2014

Any discussion about dropping Kansas behind Iowa State is utter nonsense. Such a move overemphasizes the conference tournament. ISU might qualify as a three, but more likely they're a very deserving four. The Jayhawks have the far better overall resume, especially in winning a conference that's going to put 7 of its 10 teams in the field and finishing 3 games ahead of the Cyclones. It also ignores that KU beat them 2 out of 3 head to head. ISU's non-conference tally includes wins over Michigan, Boise, Akron & at BYU. Kansas played Florida, Duke, Villanova, San Diego St, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgetown, MAC runner-up Toledo, and MAAC regular season winner Iona. It's not even a debate at this point. Frankly, if Michigan and Duke both lose, I'd still give Kansas the #1 over Virginia. Hell, even if Michigan or Duke win neither of them are solidly ahead of Kansas in my book.

Also, somebody's going to have to explain to me how the math of Sagarin (2) & KenPom (2) yields such vastly different evaluations of Louisville than the various incarnations of RPI do (NCAA 24, Palm/CBS 18, Lunardi/ESPN 18). I understand how RPI works, but the others are Spam-like mystery meats where I have no idea what they're looking at.

Using my own litmus test, I see a school that had only two challenging non-conference teams on its schedule -- KY & UNC -- and both were losses. While RPI views Southern Miss as a Top 50 opponent, I certainly don't. The rest of their N/C slate: LA-Lafayette, Missouri St, Western Kentucky, FIU, Hartford, Charleston, UMKC, Hofstra, Fairfield & Cornell. In other words, nothing but garbage. I see a team that swept all three games from UConn, which is nothing to sneeze it, but it's a rather one-dimensional "look what we did" facet. I also see a team that lost twice to Memphis. What else is in their favor? Well, they didn't lose any of the games they were supposed to win. How much does that matter? To me, not enough to be a #3 seed, let alone a 1 or a 2.

Greg29fan · Mar 16, 2014

Do you have UNC as a 5 or a 6 Dg? I had seen nothing but 5s until this morning when CBS dropped them to a 6.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 16, 2014

mabrowndog said:
Any discussion about dropping Kansas behind Iowa State is utter nonsense. Such a move overemphasizes the conference tournament. ISU might qualify as a three, but more likely they're a very deserving four. The Jayhawks have the far better overall resume, especially in winning a conference that's going to put 7 of its 10 teams in the field and finishing 3 games ahead of the Cyclones. It also ignores that KU beat them 2 out of 3 head to head. ISU's non-conference tally includes wins over Michigan, Boise, Akron & at BYU. Kansas played Florida, Duke, Villanova, San Diego St, New Mexico, Colorado, Georgetown, MAC runner-up Toledo, and MAAC regular season winner Iona. It's not even a debate at this point. Frankly, if Michigan and Duke both lose, I'd still give Kansas the #1 over Virginia. Hell, even if Michigan or Duke win neither of them are solidly ahead of Kansas in my book.

Also, somebody's going to have to explain to me how the math of Sagarin (2) & KenPom (2) yields such vastly different evaluations of Louisville than the various incarnations of RPI do (NCAA 24, Palm/CBS 18, Lunardi/ESPN 18). I understand how RPI works, but the others are Spam-like mystery meats where I have no idea what they're looking at.

Using my own litmus test, I see a school that had only two challenging non-conference teams on its schedule -- KY & UNC -- and both were losses. While RPI views Southern Miss as a Top 50 opponent, I certainly don't. The rest of their N/C slate: LA-Lafayette, Missouri St, Western Kentucky, FIU, Hartford, Charleston, UMKC, Hofstra, Fairfield & Cornell. In other words, nothing but garbage. I see a team that swept all three games from UConn, which is nothing to sneeze it, but it's a rather one-dimensional "look what we did" facet. I also see a team that lost twice to Memphis. What else is in their favor? Well, they didn't lose any of the games they were supposed to win. How much does that matter? To me, not enough to be a #3 seed, let alone a 1 or a 2.

They had 26 double-digit wins, and not a single double-digit loss. Think of it in terms of how some people still think a pitcher's win-loss record is the most important thing. They had a bad record in close games, that's it. Otherwise, they have been dominant. Compare them to Villanova for example. They played 4 teams in the RPI top 35. They got blown out in 3 of those games, and the one they won, they were losing with 30 seconds to go.

Now, I can understand that your response may be, okay, well, that might be important for predictive power going forward, but that's not what the committee is doing. But 1) it is. That's why they consider injuries and the like; and 2) that's the same thing you're really doing by considering strength of schedule, etc.

mabrowndog · Mar 16, 2014

Dgilpin said:
There is no argument Kansas doesn't have a resume clearly deserving of a 2 seed. However they are clearly not the same team without Joel Embiid, and with him out for at least the first weekend if not more I could see Kansas potentially getting dropped a seed line because of it. That being said I could definitely see Iowa St and Kansas being swapped , but the team that complied Kansas's lofty resume is most likely not the team you will be seeing in the tournament.

Villanova is the team I don't agree with most bracket projectors on. Going in to yesterday afternoon they were still being considered for a 1 seed and most ppl have them as a solid 2 seed . They were 6-3 vs the RPI top 50 , and had a SOS of 51. Compare that with a team like Iowa St who was 9-5 vs the top 50 and had a 26 SOS plus won the conference tournament of the number RPI conference. Yet Iowa st will more than likely be a 3 seed and Nova is a solid 2 in most peoples bracket

Good point on Embiid's injury. And I completely agree with you and WBV on Nova.

mabrowndog · Mar 16, 2014

WayBackVazquez said:
They had 26 double-digit wins, and not a single double-digit loss. Think of it in terms of how some people still think a pitcher's win-loss record is the most important thing. They had a bad record in close games, that's it. Otherwise, they have been dominant.

I appreciate the explanation, and the math makes sense even if I still see it as conceptually misapplied. My answer to Pomeroy and Sagarin is that it's easy to be dominant when you're rarely tested. It's also easy to be dominant when you run up the score against weaklings, which Pitino does any chance he gets unless it's one of his buddies or coaching progeny. Had Louisville lined up 2 or 3 more upper-tier non-conference programs instead of the parade of dreck they faced aside from UNC, KY and S. Miss, I'd be far more agreeable with the "they blew everyone out, never got blown out themselves, and only lost close games" argument. And I'm not just talking about national powers. Give me a George Washington, an Arkansas, an Oregon, a Toledo. Anything other than the tripe Pitino passed off. Because absent that, no matter how they slice it, Louisville went 4-3 against the next best three teams in its conference, including beating the same team 3 times, and failed to beat either of the only two Top 50 non-AAC squads on their slate. And that's the entirety of the extent to which they were tested this season.

And just to be consistent, I don't really think Wichita deserves a #1 either based on the underwhelming aspects of the schedule they played, but I'm more amenable to a special dispensation for any team that won every single game it played AND sought out and beat some challenging opponents (BYU, St. Louis, Tennessee, Tulsa, and a down-year Alabama). The Shockers were able to completely avoid the human frailty element that can pop up on any night against any given opponent where the calls and/or bounces don't go your way, or the players aren't in synch, or their shots aren't dropping. So I can shrug and look past the media and committee sentiment that elevates them. I can't do that with Louisville, even if Pitino's one of the 5 coaches I'd least want to face in the NCAAs.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 16, 2014

My top 16

1's: Florida, Witchita State, Arizona, Michigan
2's: Louisville, Virginia, Villanova, Duke
3's: Kansas, Wisconsin, Syracuse, San Diego State
4's: Creighton, Iowa State, Michigan State, UConn

WayBackVazquez · Mar 16, 2014

tims4wins said:
With losses in 2 of last 4 is Arizona in any danger of losing a 1 seed? Could Louisville and Duke snatch it away?

Committee chairman just said 3 of the 1-seeds are already determined, and the entrants have been determined as well.

tims4wins · Mar 16, 2014

Well there ya go

WayBackVazquez · Mar 16, 2014

In my view, there are five real bubble teams; three will be in, two are out:

Louisiana Tech
Nebraska
Dayton
Southern Miss.
FSU

I'm predicting FSU, Dayton and Southern Miss.

The following "bubble" teams, I also see as in:

Tennessee (not even close)
BYU
SMU
St. Joe's
ASU
Xavier

WayBackVazquez · Mar 16, 2014

Dgilpin said:
Probably could add Minnesota to that list , but I agree with WBV . Dayton and Nebraska are the 2 that make it in from that list and would be hard to make an argument for one of the other teams over those two.

I'm actually predicting Nebraska out. I know it goes against the consensus, but I think the committee throws So. Miss. a bone this year.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 16, 2014

Dgilpin said:
Sorry , I miss read that. 11-7 in the B1G is pretty impressive, I think it will be enough to get them in.

I doubt the committee's blind to the fact that 6 of those 11 wins were against Indiana, Northwestern, PSU, and Purdue. And if So. Miss. hadn't gotten snubbed with a 34 RPI last year, I could see them losing out; but it'll be really hard for the committee to do it twice in a row.

HomeRunBaker · Mar 16, 2014

mabrowndog said:
I appreciate the explanation, and the math makes sense even if I still see it as conceptually misapplied. My answer to Pomeroy and Sagarin is that it's easy to be dominant when you're rarely tested. It's also easy to be dominant when you run up the score against weaklings, which Pitino does any chance he gets unless it's one of his buddies or coaching progeny. Had Louisville lined up 2 or 3 more upper-tier non-conference programs instead of the parade of dreck they faced aside from UNC, KY and S. Miss, I'd be far more agreeable with the "they blew everyone out, never got blown out themselves, and only lost close games" argument. And I'm not just talking about national powers. Give me a George Washington, an Arkansas, an Oregon, a Toledo. Anything other than the tripe Pitino passed off. Because absent that, no matter how they slice it, Louisville went 4-3 against the next best three teams in its conference, including beating the same team 3 times, and failed to beat either of the only two Top 50 non-AAC squads on their slate. And that's the entirety of the extent to which they were tested this season.

And just to be consistent, I don't really think Wichita deserves a #1 either based on the underwhelming aspects of the schedule they played, but I'm more amenable to a special dispensation for any team that won every single game it played AND sought out and beat some challenging opponents (BYU, St. Louis, Tennessee, Tulsa, and a down-year Alabama). The Shockers were able to completely avoid the human frailty element that can pop up on any night against any given opponent where the calls and/or bounces don't go your way, or the players aren't in synch, or their shots aren't dropping. So I can shrug and look past the media and committee sentiment that elevates them. I can't do that with Louisville, even if Pitino's one of the 5 coaches I'd least want to face in the NCAAs.

There are other factors to be considered also. As has been said the Shockers DID schedule real live NCAA schools (BYU, Tulsa, St Louis, Alabama and Tennessee) and beat them all including on the road........

They also lost the two Top-20 games when Creighton left the conference, two more quality opponents at the last minute without having time to fill them when ESPN ditched the "bracket buster" games, and The Mountain West Challenge was terminated that cost them another Top-20 game against either SD State or New Mexico.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 16, 2014

Dgilpin said:
I don't think CUSA is a 2 bid league , but if another team had to be considered I would go with LaTech not southern Miss. Regular season champ, (I know 4 teams were tied at 13-3) made it to the conference finals and picked up a nice win @ Oklahoma. South Miss has nice RPI but not much else , their lone quality win was North Dakota St.

Oh, I agree La. Tech has a better resume, but if the committee wants to continue using the RPI as its main "statistical" tool, it can't just ignore a top 35 RPI against a ~60.

tims4wins · Mar 16, 2014

So if MSU hangs on, what does the S curve look like? I think I would have Florida, WSU, Arizona, and UVA as the ones (in that order), with Louisville as 5, Michigan 6, Nova 7, and Duke 8. I think Kansas drops to the third line.

As a Duke fan would rather see us matched with WSU than Florida, but geographically Florida's region would be good.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 16, 2014

How awesome would an East Regional of Duke, Syracuse, UConn, and say Michigan State be at MSG? Make it happen.

tims4wins · Mar 16, 2014

They won't put Duke and Cuse in the same region

mabrowndog · Mar 16, 2014

tims4wins said:
So if MSU hangs on, what does the S curve look like? I think I would have Florida, WSU, Arizona, and UVA as the ones (in that order), with Louisville as 5, Michigan 6, Nova 7, and Duke 8. I think Kansas drops to the third line.

See my posts upthread. If this happens, it'll basically be telling every D-I institution in the country, "Hey! Just schedule a bunch of shitbag schools along with maybe a couple of Top 50 programs to keep the critics honest, because that's what Louisville did. And we won't give a fuck if you play Villanova, Florida, Duke, San Diego St, New Mexico, Georgetown & Colorado, and we also won't care if you finish first in a conference with 7 of its 10 teams getting bids."

With Duke already having lost and Michigan on the way to an L, if Kansas is ANYTHING lower than the first #2 seed (5th overall), it'll be a clear sign of ignorance and idiocy on the committee's part. Injury or no injury.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 16, 2014

tims4wins said:
They won't put Duke and Cuse in the same region

They can play each other in the Sweet 16

tims4wins · Mar 16, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
They can play each other in the Sweet 16

Right technically they can. Just can't see the committee making them a 2-3 in a region.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Mar 16, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
They can play each other in the Sweet 16

No they can't. Not with only 5, possibly 6 teams in the tourney. Same conference teams are split until the Elite Eight.

They can both be put in the same pod, but there is no way they're going to lined up to meet in a potential S16.

tims4wins · Mar 16, 2014

Dog, respectfully disagree on KU. They have lost 3 of 5 and don't look like the same team post injury. I think they absolutely deserve a top two seed but think the committee will drop them a line.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 16, 2014

Dan to Theo to Ben said:
No they can't. Not with only 5, possibly 6 teams in the tourney. Same conference teams are split until the Elite Eight.

They can both be put in the same pod, but there is no way they're going to lined up to meet in a potential S16.

There is no absolute rule against it anymore as it was changed a few years ago. They can play as early as the 2nd round now. Obviously, that won't happen but S16 is more realistic.

Dan to Theo to Ben · Mar 16, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
There is no absolute rule against it anymore as it was changed a few years ago. They can play as early as the 2nd round now. Obviously, that won't happen but S16 is more realistic.

It's, still, a very very strong guideline. Maybe they consider going against it with a 7 (or 8) team Big12 (nee) (or Pac12 in other years) to reduce travel/increase attendance etc., but it's 99.9% not gonna happen in a 5 team ACC year., where there's absolutely no reason to do it. There is zero realism in Duke facing Syracuse in the Sweet 16 round this year. Zero

HomeRunBaker · Mar 16, 2014

tims4wins said:
Dog, respectfully disagree on KU. They have lost 3 of 5 and don't look like the same team post injury. I think they absolutely deserve a top two seed but think the committee will drop them a line.

The committee does take into account that these losses came without Embiid. His availability or what the committee views as his availability will determine their seed. If they feel he'll be playing those losses matter very little and they will retain their high seed.

mabrowndog · Mar 16, 2014

Here's how I'd seed things (not a prediction):

1 - Arizona, Florida, Virginia, Wichita St
2 - Kansas, Michigan, Duke, Villanova
3 - Syracuse, Wisconsin, Michigan St, Creighton
4 - Iowa St, UCLA, Louisville, San Diego St

Last 4 in: Arizona St, Dayton, BYU, Nebraska (had to flip a coin between the Huskers & Gophers)
First 4 out: Minnesota, Florida St, Arkansas, LA Tech

Dan to Theo to Ben · Mar 16, 2014

Guess for top 16:

Anaheim:
Arizona
Duke
Iowa State
~~San Diego State~~ Michigan State (AZ high seed home court protection principle)

Indy:
Wichita State
Michigan
Syracuse
Creighton
(Now there's an epic S16 1-4 matchup)

NY:
Virginia
Wisconsin
Villanova
UCLA

Memphis:
Florida
Kansas
Louisville
~~Michigan State~~ San Diego State (AZ high seed home court protection principle)

Greg29fan · Mar 16, 2014

Lunardi has UVA as the 4th 1 seed

Dan to Theo to Ben · Mar 16, 2014

Greg29fan said:
Lunardi has UVA as the 4th 1 seed

about time. He had them as a 3 last night . . .

2013-14 Bracketology

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