2013-14 Bracketology

RedOctober3829 · Feb 21, 2014

From a UConn perspective, if they can finish the regular season strong and make it to the AAC finals I think they could be in the market for a 3 or 4 seed. They have a win over Florida in their back pocket that is going to be huge come seeding time. If they are bunched up with a few teams that have similar resumes the Florida win will trump everybody.

WayBackVazquez · Feb 21, 2014

I haven't followed that Providence thread, but I don't see how they'd be in right now over for example, Baylor, who Lunardi has out. And I think if they lose to either Butler or Seton Hall, they'd need to probably make the final of the Big East tourney.

ivanvamp · Feb 21, 2014

UConn has the potential to be a real pain in the butt come tournament time. Excellent backcourt (always huge in the tourney), very good coaching.

Orel Miraculous · Feb 21, 2014

This phenomenal site combines all the bracket projections and gives an average seed for each team: http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Orel Miraculous · Feb 25, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
From a UConn perspective, if they can finish the regular season strong and make it to the AAC finals I think they could be in the market for a 3 or 4 seed. They have a win over Florida in their back pocket that is going to be huge come seeding time. If they are bunched up with a few teams that have similar resumes the Florida win will trump everybody.

Ehhhhhhh, I think you're really stretching things here talking about a 3 or 4 seed. UConn is a classic 8-10 team right now and at this point it's really hard to improve your resume by any more than 2 or 3 seeds. They only have one top 25 win, they're under .500 against top 50 teams, and they have a terrible Houston loss dragging them down. Sure, they could help their chances by winning out and getting to the AAC finals, but this ain't the Big East anymore, and such a run would likely only add one more top 25 win while saddling UConn with a couple more RPI drags in South Florida and Rutgers. The Florida win does get better and better every day though.

Edit: without even going to the resume, do you really think UConn is capable of going 6-1 in it's next 7 games when at least four of those are against Louisville, Cinci, and Memphis? That would be quite a run.

twibnotes · Feb 26, 2014

I'm biased (UVA '98), but I see the Cavs getting a 2 seed. Bennett has these guys playing awfully well. Syracuse will be a big litmus test Saturday.

[pinches self]

benhogan · Feb 26, 2014

twibnotes said:
I'm biased (UVA '98), but I see the Cavs getting a 2 seed. Bennett has these guys playing awfully well. Syracuse will be a big litmus test Saturday.

[pinches self]

Virginia is the team nobody is talking about, that has quietly gone about destroying the ACC this season. They have gone 15-1 in conference, with 11 double digit wins and a tight loss to Duke (in Duke). They had a terrible loss to Tennesse, but that was pre Jan.1

I suspect they are favored this Saturday (vs. Syracuse), and if they win that and the ACC tournament, they should easily get a #2 seed with the possibility of a #1 seed.

SumnerH · Feb 26, 2014

benhogan said:
Virginia is the team nobody is talking about, that has quietly gone about destroying the ACC this season. They have gone 15-1 in conference, with 11 double digit wins and a tight loss to Duke (in Duke). They had a terrible loss to Tennesse, but that was pre Jan.1

I suspect they are favored this Saturday (vs. Syracuse), and if they win that and the ACC tournament, they should easily get a #2 seed with the possibility of a #1 seed.

I usually think UVA is overrated going into the tournament, but this year they actually seem to have a chance to make some noise. I'm conflicted about that.

HomeRunBaker · Feb 27, 2014

WayBackVazquez said:
I haven't followed that Providence thread, but I don't see how they'd be in right now over for example, Baylor, who Lunardi has out. And I think if they lose to either Butler or Seton Hall, they'd need to probably make the final of the Big East tourney.

Discussed in PC thread but yeah.....6-9 vs Top-100 is atrocious and we haven't beaten a Top-100 team since mid-January. Our only wins in the past month weeks have been against DePaul and Butler, each team has 2 conference wins.

NIT bound barring winning out plus a couple tourney wins.

gmogmo · Feb 27, 2014

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

This site does a great nightly recap of the impact of the games on the bubble

TheDeuce222 · Feb 27, 2014

SumnerH said:
I usually think UVA is overrated going into the tournament, but this year they actually seem to have a chance to make some noise. I'm conflicted about that.

Overrated going into the tournament? Hell, we hardly ever make it to the Tournament - having gone once in 2007 (as a 4 seed) and once in 2012 (as a 10, playing with Mike Scott, an injured Joe Harris and a whole lot of crap, where we got roasted by a Bradley Beal and Patric Young-led Florida team) and that's it since 2001. I went to grad school at Virginia from 2007-10, and we really didn't even sniff the tourney any of those three years. This season has been a revelation - so overrated, underrated, hell I couldn't care less - we're a stone cold lock to go to the tourney and be a favorite in our first two games, and that is phenomenal based on the run Virginia has had.

I would agree with dgilpin that Virginia's resume is a bit light in terms of truly marquee wins, but we also don't have any truly bad losses (at Green Bay is marginal, but Green Bay is a good team that should go to the tournament if they win the Horizon.) A win against Syracuse is key to getting the bump up on the seed line to a 2 from the Committee, though. Huge game on Saturday - I feel very confident the way Virginia is playing right now and how sound the defense has been.

DukeSox · Feb 27, 2014

Reminds me of Miami's run last year, which resulted in a #2 seed....and out. Would love to see UVA make a real run this year.

TheDeuce222 · Feb 27, 2014

Some fair points BSF. They only score 65 points a game, but they only let in 55 a game (which is #1 in the country). Their slow pace is by design - they take a while and make sure they get a great shot. So, as long as they can continue to play the kind of defense they have been, there is no reason why they can't go deep only scoring 60-65 points per game.

The free throw percentage issues have been a huge concern all year - particularly with the fact that Akil Mitchell, a senior and our best big, shoots 43% from the line. Harris has also been unbelievably bad at the line this year, shooting only 62% after being up in the 70s the last few years. So I am fearful that we will see a close game come down to free throws and we will get burnt. The good news in that regard is that Malcolm Brogdon, our best free throw shooter, is tremendous at 90%, and they've been very good at getting the ball into him in the closing moments to ice out games. The other good news is that their free throw shooting has been better in the last three games, so hopefully that trend can continue through the postseason.

Completely disagree that UVA doesn't have much of a perimeter game. We're shooting 36.8% from the three point line (159/432), which is not as a good as an outside shooting-focused team like Duke 40.1 % (269/670), but better than Syracuse - 34.6% (141/407), who plays at a similar pace to UVA. Also disagree that Harris should be getting more looks - last year teams were completely keyed in on Harris, and if he faltered or was shut down, the rest of the team looked lost. This year, it's a much more balanced attack, and they've had five or six different guys lead the team in scoring, and who can go off on any given night. Harris also has more space.

Time will tell, but I'm pretty confident about this team. They're locked in.

Stevie1der · Feb 27, 2014

I'd like to cosign on both of TheDeuce222's posts. As my undergrad experience spanned the end of the Gillen era and the start of the Leitao regime, the current state of UVA basketball has me giddy. The team's overall and conference record has improved in Tony Bennett's first five years, and the current team is one of the deepest and most talented squads UVa's had in years. What excites me is that there are visible signs of a very deliberate process being undertaken to facilitate sustained success, which ACC schools beyond the Tobacco Road blue bloods have struggled with, and will continue to do so with the addition of two more blue bloods in Syracuse and Louisville. People are right to feel skeptical due to the shaky non-conference results, but this is a different team playing now. The defense has only improved, and the offense is more balanced with the decreased reliance on Harris and the emergence of London Perrantes at PG, who has had a similar stabilizing influence as fellow ACC freshman Tyler Ennis. Win or lose on Saturday and beyond, I'm enjoying this immensely.

mabrowndog · Feb 28, 2014

Last night's upset losses by Iowa, Kentucky, UCLA, Memphis, St. Louis & Ohio State could have a significant impact on the brackets, since they've been commonly projected for similar seed levels (5/6). It certainly bodes well for a school like UMass, making a win over St. Louis or a conference tournament championship far less important to be seeded at those levels, and it paves the way for the Minutemen to bypass all six of them to a 4 or higher seed should UMass somehow finish strong.

Greg29fan · Mar 1, 2014

congrats UVA fans. Great run for you guys and a well-earned regular season title.

twibnotes · Mar 1, 2014

Greg29fan said:
congrats UVA fans. Great run for you guys and a well-earned regular season title.

I was a freshman ("first year") there when they somehow made the elite 8. I'm still in shock - can't believe we're legit. Great performance today. Just not used to winning as a UVA fan!

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Mar 1, 2014

Their free throw shooting concerns me a little in the Tourney

RedOctober3829 · Mar 1, 2014

My 1 seeds as of now would be Florida, Witchita State, Arizona, and Kansas. 2 seeds are Cuse, Duke, Wisconsin, and Michigan

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Mar 1, 2014

I wouldn't be surprised to see Villanova slide in as a #2.

ivanvamp · Mar 1, 2014

If Virginia wins the ACC tournament, they have to be at least a 2 seed. Let's say Syracuse wins their last two (not an easy task with Grant hurt) and then goes 1-1 in the ACC tournament. What seed do they get? A 2 as well? Hard to see them as a 1 seed then, I think, especially if Grant is injured. I think they take that into consideration. But still, they'd be 29-4 and an excellent RPI. Still enough for them to be in Buffalo and then MSG?

tims4wins · Mar 8, 2014

What effect if any does this Kansas loss have?

tims4wins · Mar 8, 2014

Right, plus they will likely fall out of the top 10. Hard to see the committee giving a team with 8 losses and ranked somewhere below 8 a 1 seed.

tims4wins · Mar 9, 2014

So with recent losses by Cuse, Kansas, Arizona, Duke, Virginia, and Wisconsin...who are the 1 seeds? Florida and Wichita St are locks and Arizona is probably a 3rd. I think the last is wide open based on the conference tourneys.

twothousandone · Mar 13, 2014

On the bottom, are California-Colorado, Arkansas - Tennessee, St. John's - Providence and St. Joe's - Dayton win and you're in games? I think Colorado can lose and still make it, but I don't think any of the others can.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 13, 2014

I think Providence and SJU need two more wins. It's certainly lose and out for each, though.

Tennessee, St. joes, and Dayton are already in, IMO.

twothousandone · Mar 13, 2014

WayBackVazquez said:
I think Providence and SJU need two more wins. It's certainly lose and out for each, though.

You think St. Joe's or Dayton or Arkansas or Tennessee or Cal can lose and still top the winner? I think Providence probably has a better case with a win than St. John's, and I don't see anyway Arkansas gets in unless they win.

eh, now that I looked again, Florida State and Minnesota each have very winnable games that will get them something. I agree, SJU-PRO winner has to knock off 'Nova.

PC Drunken Friar · Mar 13, 2014

twothousandone said:
You think St. Joe's or Dayton or Arkansas or Tennessee or Cal can lose and still top the winner? I think Providence probably has a better case with a win than St. John's, and I don't see anyway Arkansas gets in unless they win.

eh, now that I looked again, Florida State and Minnesota each have very winnable games that will get them something. I agree, SJU-PRO winner has to knock off 'Nova.

PC might sneak in even with a loss vs. Nova, but that might be a very controversial decision. They probably wouldn't deserve it. Definitely need two wins, I think.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 13, 2014

twothousandone said:
You think St. Joe's or Dayton or Arkansas or Tennessee or Cal can lose and still top the winner?

I absolutely think Tennessee is in the tournament win or lose.

Dayton is definitely in unless it loses to Fordham, in which case it's probably in. St. Joe's is probably in win or lose.

Arkansas definitely needs at least one more win; Cal has work to do.

PC Drunken Friar · Mar 13, 2014

Dgilpin said:
Bracket Update

Florida State picks up a hard fought win against Maryland, setting them up for a match up against Virginia tomorrow. A win there and Florida St is in the tournament and also probably knocks Virginia down to a 3/4 seed depending how this weekend shakes out.

Villanova loses to Seton Hall, as I mentioned in the other thread this costs Nova any shot at a 1 seed. Lunardi had them as 3 on this S-curve going into day, I think come Sunday Nova is probably a 3 seed. The bigger impact is it costs the winner of Providence/St. Johns an opportunity to pick up a marquee win.

Illinois knocks off Indiana, both teams needed to win this conference tournament to make the field. However Illinois definitely has the better resume of the two, I guess if things got crazy this weekend and Illinois managed to get to the title game they might have shot but its not likely. Sets up a Michigan-Illinois match up tomorrow.

That sure would be a kick in the balls, to win 22 games, make the BE finals, and STILL not make the NCAAs...but it very well could happen.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 13, 2014

Dgilpin said:
I think they are likely in with a win tomorrow, but a win over Nova would have pushed them up past the last 4 in. If they do make it now they are likely looking at a play-in game in Dayton, assuming they don't win the BE.

I really don't know where you get that. #55 RPI (won't improve with a win over SJU); two wins against the top 50, neither on the road or neutral (won't improve with a win over SJU); 5 losses in their last 10 games; outside of the top 50 in KenPom, Sagarain, etc.

This team is not in the tournament with just one more win.

twothousandone · Mar 13, 2014

WayBackVazquez said:
I absolutely think Tennessee is in the tournament win or lose.

I'm curious how you see them in absolutely over Providence (if Tennessee loses, and now that Providence has won).
I think the number are right assuming Prov beats SH and Tennessee loses to Ark.

6-9 road/neutral vs. 8-8 road/neutral
43 vs. 55 (I think Providence goes up slightly with their victory and Tennessee will slip slightly if they lose to Ark)
Victory over UVA vs. victory over Crieghton
1-4 vs. 1-5 against top 25
7-9 vs. 7-10 against top 100 (after tournament games)
Bad losses to A&M (twice), Vanderbilt, vs. bad loss to Seton Hall

I can see a case For Tennessee, but I see as good a case for Providence, with OT loses to UMass and 'Nova.

And they both split against Xavier, so maybe it is a coin flip.

And, Dayton can play the play-in game in Dayton, right?

WayBackVazquez · Mar 13, 2014

twothousandone said:
I'm curious how you see them in absolutely over Providence (if Tennessee loses, and now that Providence has won).
I think the number are right assuming Prov beats SH and Tennessee loses to Ark.

Strength of schedule, lack of really bad losses (150+), scoring margin. Tennessee won most of its games convincingly, and only one of its losses was by double digits. Providence has four double-digit losses including one by 30. They're just a much better team, and the committee is not blind to that. TN is #13 in KenPom, with a 43 RPI. They're not really on the bubble.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 13, 2014

Dgilpin said:
So let's do a quick evaluation after today's games

Colorado - In
California - In
Tennessee - In (Although a loss to South Carolina would move them closer to the cut line than they want to be )
Dayton - In
St. Joseph's - Most likely in
Minnesota - In my opinion should be in , but probably needs a win over Wisconsin to remove any doubt.
Providence - it's been discussed a win tomorrow won't guarantee them a spot but a loss will definitely take them out of contention.
Florida St. - Needs a win over UVA to get them in , tough sell with a loss
Arkansas - out
St. John's - out
Utah - out

California is done. Finished. Out. NIT-bound.

WayBackVazquez · Mar 13, 2014

Dgilpin said:
Maybe not def in , but they aren't as dead as you make them out to be 19-13 RPI 53, SOS 29, 4-9 vs the RPU top 50 (@stanford , @oregon, vs Colorado , vs. Arizona) 8-11 vs top 100, KenPom numbers are ugly (73) but I think they stand a chance for the last 4 in .

Nine double-digit losses, too. I don't even have them as one of the last four out.

2013-14 Bracketology

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