Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016

NoXInNixon

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Kind of a crazy idea, but I wonder if the Lakers would take some of the Celtics' glut of picks for the right to swap the Nets pick for the Lakers pick.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Kind of a crazy idea, but I wonder if the Lakers would take some of the Celtics' glut of picks for the right to swap the Nets pick for the Lakers pick.
Lakers wouldn't throw away their chance at the top pick, and Ainge wouldn't take the chance of the Lakers falling out of the top 3 and having nothing to show for whatever assets he traded.

Another good result was New Orleans winning their third straight last night to pass the Nets after a brutal start. As long as the Brow is healthy they shouldn't be a threat. Still a clear bottom three, though it'll be tough for Brooklyn to crack the bottom 2 without an injury to Young or Lopez.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Not a bad couple days (well except for the two bad losses) on the pick front.
Wins for Minny turns the 2nds to 1st.
Nets stay 3rd.
Dallas slides.

As of today we would have:

3, 14, 15, 20, 31, 49, 56, 58
Last night was a good night for the draft pick watch. Gotta hope Minny stays hot and Dallas gets cold. It's early, but I don't like a lot of the teams behind Dallas. If they could fall to 8th in the West, I'd be happy.

Mavs next 6 games: vs Den, @Sac, @Por, vs Hou, @Was, vs NYK, so a pretty easy upcoming schedule. Wouldn't be surprised if they went 5-1 here.
Minny's next 6: @Sac, @LAC, vs Orl, vs Por, vs LAC, vs LAL, so some winnable games, but anything over 500 would be unexpected.

Luckily the C's righted the ship vs Philly yesterday.
Next 6 for the C's: vs Was, @Orl, @Mia, @Sac, @SA, @NO. 3-3 would be acceptable, considering the road games.

And for our Ben Simmons watch:
Next 6 for Brooklyn: @Cle, vs Det, vs Pho, @NYK, vs GS, vs HOU. Maybe 1-5? Can they beat Houston or New York?

Edit: Wins are in green. Loses in Red. I'll update periodically as the teams go through this stretch. Good start so far.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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This will be a telling stretch. Pistons, Suns, Knicks and Rockets are all hypothetically winnable games.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Pistons with a heinous 4th to blow the game. Some shoe salesman named Aron Baynes snuck onto the floor for maybe the worst 11 minutes I've ever seen. Drummond is great but the FT shooting is pathetic, and about 18 of Reggie's 20 shots were wild and/or contested. Teams are just losing their shit against the Nets lately.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Not a good night for the tankathon. Dallas is beating Portland right now in a close game, Minny loses to Orlando and Brooklyn beats Phoenix. Only good thing is the 76ers got their first win, but it was to the Lakers, who are also in contention for the #1 pick.
 

BigSoxFan

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I've already conceded the top 2 spots to Philly and LA. The teams we need to be concerned with are the Pelicans and Nuggets so that we don't fall too much further. Have no idea how you go 4-14 with Anthony Davis.
 

Cellar-Door

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I've already conceded the top 2 spots to Philly and LA. The teams we need to be concerned with are the Pelicans and Nuggets so that we don't fall too much further. Have no idea how you go 4-14 with Anthony Davis.
Well 4-10 (really 9 he got hurt 6 minutes into one game) with him in the lineup. It's not a great team anyway, but between AD injuries and having by far the toughest schedule in the league so far (including GS twice), it's been a rough start. Asik and Jrue Holliday both fell off a cliff, so there is reason to think they can turn it around to be a mediocre team.
 

bowiac

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Opponents are shooting over 40% against New Orleans from 3. They're going to improve simply because of that.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Quick update:

Projected 1st Round Picks: 4 (BKL), 15 (MIN), 21 (DAL), 22
New Orleans continues to suck and is projected 3rd, but Brooklyn only has 2 more losses than the Lakers who sit at #2.

Who we want to win:
BOS next 6 games: : vs Was, @Orl, @Mia, @Sac, @SA, @NO. 3-3 would be acceptable, considering the road games. 3-1 so far, great start. 4-2 looks likely.
MIN next 6 games: @Sac, @LAC, vs Orl, vs Por, vs LAC, vs LAL, some winnable games, but anything over 500 would be unexpected. 1-2 so far with two winnable games ahead.
Who we want to lose:
DAL next 6 games: vs Den, @Sac, @Por, vs Hou, @Was, vs NYK, pretty easy upcoming schedule. Wouldn't be surprised if they went 5-1. 2-1, on pace for initial projection. Can they win @WAS?
BKL next 6 games: @Cle, vs Det, vs Pho, @NYK, vs GS, vs HOU. Maybe 1-5? Can they beat Houston or New York? 2-3 so far. Need them to stop winning.

Wins are in green. Loses in Red.
 
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jmcc5400

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Nice night. Brooklyn loses. Dallas loses at home. Even Phoenix's loss has a marginal benefit to the Minnesota pick.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Nice night. Brooklyn loses. Dallas loses at home. Even Phoenix's loss has a marginal benefit to the Minnesota pick.
Pelicans grab a win against Cleveland as well for their 5th win. Better days ahead for them.

Denver gets Philly today, plus a couple win-win scenarios with Sac @ Houston and Portland @ Minny.

Always worry about teams on a long winning streak but I'm hoping Golden State comes out much harder against the Nets tomorrow after nearly dropping one to them at home a couple weeks ago. Need BK to drop as many games as possible now that their home/road disparity is about to even out in their favor (though they'll still be dogs in most of their match ups).

As always, it's worth noting that Brooklyn is 5-14 despite near-perfect health all season.
 
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BigSoxFan

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Today's pick position:

Nets: 4th
Wolves: 10th (top 12 protected - no pick)
Mavericks: 18th (top 7 protected)
Celtics: 20th

Following the Wolves' pick will be a roller coaster ride. They figure to be right in that 10-15 range.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Rondae Hollis-Jefferson missed last night's game with an ankle injury. Severity unknown but he was seen on crutches last night.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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The Nets have an interesting rest of the month. The GS game kicked off their first homestand of the year. Now through mid-February may decide their fate because the last two months of the season are very road-heavy and it could get ugly if they hit that point with a "what are we still playing for" attitude.

12/8 vs. Houston
12/10 vs. Philly
12/12 vs. LAC
12/14 vs. Orlando
12/16 vs. Miami
12/18 @ Indy
12/20 vs. Minny
12/21 @ Chicago
12/23 vs. Dallas
12/26 vs. Washington
12/28 @ Miami
12/30 @ Orlando

Some winnable games for sure but I still don't see them putting a streak together. It's tough to project a team that plays hard and looks good for stretches but can't really out-talent anybody (except the obvious). Basically when their opponent plays well, they don't win, and when their opponent plays like crap, the games are still only a toss-up at best.

We're in great shape as long as they continue to tread water well below .500. With so many East teams in the playoff mix this year (and a draft without several transformative talents) I'm holding out hope we don't see the usual barrage of mid-season tankers who could potentially hand the Nets a bunch of late wins.
 

bowiac

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Assuming the 76ers are out of the picture, and the Lakers will do whatever it takes to keep their pick, I'm not quite sure who the Nets are competing with for the #3 seed in the lottery. My projections say it's Milwaukee (whatever happened to those people who thought they were a tier above the Celtics anyway?), but I have to imagine they right the ship eventually. The same goes for the Pelicans. Denver will be down there all year I suppose given, but it's certainly interesting how quickly the bottom has shaken out.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Fucking Rockets drop one to Brooklyn, 110-105. James Harden shots 2-8, 10 points, 9 assists, 7 turnovers.

This game was close at the end, but the only reason Brooklyn didn't win going away was old friend Marcus Thornton, who put up a game high 32 points in 25 minutes off the bench.
 

ishmael

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Nets shoot 55% vs. the lackluster Rockets. Move back past the Pelicans and into the #4 slot.

Nets get Philly at home on Thursday, before heading into a tougher stretch through the middle of January (14 of 16 games against teams over .500)...
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Final update from the previous 6 game stretch:

Who we want to win:
BOS next 6 games: : vs Was, @Orl, @Mia, @Sac, @SA, @NO. 3-3 would be acceptable, considering the road games. 4-2, solid stretch for the C's.
MIN next 6 games: @Sac, @LAC, vs Orl, vs Por, vs LAC, vs LAL, some winnable games, but anything over 500 would be unexpected. Need to beat the Lakers tonight to finish 2-4. Disappointing.
Who we want to lose:
DAL next 6 games: vs Den, @Sac, @Por, vs Hou, @Was, vs NYK, pretty easy upcoming schedule. Wouldn't be surprised if they went 5-1. 4-2, beating the good teams and losing to the bad. Strange.
BKL next 6 games: @Cle, vs Det, vs Pho, @NYK, vs GS, vs HOU. Maybe 1-5? Can they beat Houston or New York? 3-3. Better than we all hoped for.

Wins are in green. Loses in Red.[/QUOTE]

Picks are starting to go in the wrong direction. BKL pick is currently 4, C's at 14, DAL at 22 and MIN at 8 which would turn their pick into 2 2nds.
 

bowiac

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I run standings for the APBR projection contest. Here are projected season-end standings based on year-to-date results averaged from 4 different systems (538, Basketball-Reference, TeamRankings, and an SRS-method I prefer):

 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Man, the East is crowded right now. 2 games separate #1 from 8.

Good night for the tankathon and C's playoff hopes last night, as the C's beat Chicago at home in a nice come from behind victory. Minny beat the Lakers by 1 in overtime and Atlanta beat Dallas.

Pick update:

4- BKL
17- DAL
20- BOS
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Man, the East is crowded right now. 2 games separate #1 from 8.

Good night for the tankathon and C's playoff hopes last night, as the C's beat Chicago at home in a nice come from behind victory. Minny beat the Lakers by 1 in overtime and Atlanta beat Dallas.

Pick update:

4- BKL
17- DAL
20- BOS
Great to see that Brooklyn is actually closer to having the worst record in the league than they are to a playoff spot (though that probably changes tonight). At the same point last season their record would probably have been only 2 or 3 games back of the 7/8 seed.

I'm refusing to get my hopes up at any point today about Brooklyn losing to Philly but it would be amazing for sure. They have already lost to LAL so you never know.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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They won't lose because Philly has no composure (about 8 too easy and-1s given up) but Brooklyn is having a really hard time with the Sixers.

This Okafor/Bargnani matchup is one for the ages though.
 
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Fishy1

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They won't lose because Philly has no composure (about 8 too easy and-1s given up) but Brooklyn is having a really hard time with the Sixers.

This Okafor/Bargnani matchup is one for the ages though.
My god, you didnt actually watch that game, did you?
 

Jed Zeppelin

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My god, you didnt actually watch that game, did you?
I had it on my computer just to glance at. Morbid curiosity. And it was rewarded. Bargnani had his best game in probably 5 years going against Okafor. It was amazing.
 

Cellar-Door

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I wouldn't bet on MIN 11th in the West, and no real incentive to win. A lot of other teams ahead of them likely to trade to improve.
 

moondog80

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I wouldn't bet on MIN 11th in the West, and no real incentive to win. A lot of other teams ahead of them likely to trade to improve.

????

I'm pretty sure a team that hasn't seen the postseason since 2004 would much rather make the playoffs than end up with like the 10th pick in the lottery. Energize the fan base, give Towns/Wiggins/Lavine a taste of the playoffs. I don't think they'll make short-sighted trades in order to do so, nor should they, but there's no reason they can't stay around .500 this year and contend for a spot in a West that suddenly looks mediocre outside of San Antonio and Golden State.
 

Cellar-Door

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????

I'm pretty sure a team that hasn't seen the postseason since 2004 would much rather make the playoffs than end up with like the 10th pick in the lottery. Energize the fan base, give Towns/Wiggins/Lavine a taste of the playoffs. I don't think they'll make short-sighted trades in order to do so, nor should they, but there's no reason they can't stay around .500 this year and contend for a spot in a West that suddenly looks mediocre outside of San Antonio and Golden State.
Only if they are stupid. They are currently looking at a top 7 draft pick, with an 18% chance at top 3, and 5% chance at #1, and there are 2 teams within a half game of them. If they get a top 10 pick it would be good for them, a top 7 better, top 3? HUGE. The idea that an outside chance at the #7 or #8 seed and the right to be destroyed in a 4 game sweep is worth not having a first round pick this year is CRAZY. A top 10 pick is a great way to get young cheap talent locked up long term, any team willing to give that up for the negligible benefits of selling 2 games of playoff tickets and the likely non-existent value of "playoff experience" is a poorly run franchise. This isn't a case like say the Celtics of the difference between 10 and 14, this is top 10 or nothing at all.
 

moondog80

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Only if they are stupid. They are currently looking at a top 7 draft pick, with an 18% chance at top 3, and 5% chance at #1, and there are 2 teams within a half game of them. If they get a top 10 pick it would be good for them, a top 7 better, top 3? HUGE. The idea that an outside chance at the #7 or #8 seed and the right to be destroyed in a 4 game sweep is worth not having a first round pick this year is CRAZY. A top 10 pick is a great way to get young cheap talent locked up long term, any team willing to give that up for the negligible benefits of selling 2 games of playoff tickets and the likely non-existent value of "playoff experience" is a poorly run franchise. This isn't a case like say the Celtics of the difference between 10 and 14, this is top 10 or nothing at all.

So what are you advocating for them? Suppressing the development of KAT/Wiggins? If those guys take big steps and keep them in the hunt for the 8 seed, they're not going to hold them back. The right play is to not make any crazy, short sighted roster moves, but go all out with the team you have and try and win every game.
 

Devizier

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Well, by that token, the Celtics have been stupid and the Sixers have been smart. I think there's something to be said about pushing for success, especially when you have an elite young talent like Towns (nevermind Wiggins and Lavine).

You don't want to commit to a Pelicans-esque path, with stupid moves like trading for Jrue Holiday and giving Eric Gordon a max contract, but there's a lot of daylight between those two paths.
 

moondog80

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Well, by that token, the Celtics have been stupid and the Sixers have been smart. I think there's something to be said about pushing for success, especially when you have an elite young talent like Towns (nevermind Wiggins and Lavine).

You don't want to commit to a Pelicans-esque path, with stupid moves like trading for Jrue Holiday and giving Eric Gordon a max contract, but there's a lot of daylight between those two paths.
I don't want to lead us too far astray, but I liked the Jrue Holliday trade for NO. He was a good young player who hadn't really had injury issues. Obviously it hasn't worked out, but worth noting that Nerlens Noel has taken a big step back this year, and we still haven't seen Dario Saric.
 

bowiac

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You have to really think highly of Jrue Holiday to defend that trade. Given his low efficiency, and high TO rate, I can't see it.
 

Cellar-Door

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So what are you advocating for them? Suppressing the development of KAT/Wiggins? If those guys take big steps and keep them in the hunt for the 8 seed, they're not going to hold them back. The right play is to not make any crazy, short sighted roster moves, but go all out with the team you have and try and win every game.
They don't need to suppress their development. As high talent as those guys are that team still isn't very good. They'll probably finish 10 worst all on their own, however I do think if they can they should be looking to trade Martin (and maybe even Rubio) and getting more minutes for LaVIne and Jones. Also they should be moving Pekovic as soon as he shows he's healthy.
My point is more that they aren't a good team, and so they have no incentive down the stretch to 1. Make moves to get better this year, 2. Keep anyone outside the core 3/4 players, 3. Play the rotations that are best for winning rather than development.


Well, by that token, the Celtics have been stupid and the Sixers have been smart. I think there's something to be said about pushing for success, especially when you have an elite young talent like Towns (nevermind Wiggins and Lavine).

You don't want to commit to a Pelicans-esque path, with stupid moves like trading for Jrue Holiday and giving Eric Gordon a max contract, but there's a lot of daylight between those two paths.
The Celtics pushed it for a change of a few draft places and acquiring young talent on good contracts which is very different from losing a pick entirely. Also part of the problem was that by that point the Celtics already knew they were a borderline playoff team, and no worse than 9-10 in the draft if they missed because the East was bad. MIN still is likely to finish top 7 or so in the draft, and the odds of a playoff berth without making moves is low.
 

moondog80

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You have to really think highly of Jrue Holiday to defend that trade. Given his low efficiency, and high TO rate, I can't see it.

But what did they give up? The 6th pick in a draft that everyone hated at the time? Cleveland couldn't even find a good deal for the #1 pick, never mind the #6. What are the chances they would have ended up with someone better than Holiday? We're in year 3 of Nerlens Noel and he's regressed. And if they didn't have awful injury luck with Holiday and Ryan Anderson both missing most of the season, the 10 pick in 2014 is more like 15 or 16, which is another longshot. If not for unforeseeable injury, I'll take my chances with (non-injured) Jrue Holiday being the best player in that trade.