Thankfully the Sox and Mariners are a good matchup because we would probably be trading redundant offensive talent for their (not redundant but maybe surplus?) pitching.
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Trying to put vampire theory to rest. New theory: when Bello pitches during the day he just wants to be at the beach & can't focus.
Sox need at least two more very good/excellent starters to even be competitive in al east. frankly Sox offense is not good enough to win if we do not have elite pitching and our defense costs us several games. Add to that we are probably trading the player with the best defensive stats on our roster in 2023.
Who? Neither Verdugo nor Duran makes a ton of sense for them, and if Suarez was too pricey for them, then I can’t imagine Yoshida or Story would be acceptable. That leaves Casas I guess? I don’t think people would be too keen on that, but maybe I’m wrong.
Duran in a big outfield? Teoscar is gone, Moore is nothing special, and they have no DH after Mike Ford and what's left of AJ Pollock. They could use a graduating prospect like Wilyer too.
Dylan Cease talks have intensified and a deal could happen before the WM per Jon Morosi. I really hope the Red Sox are in on him.
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1729971354307645907?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1729971354307645907?s=20
They’ve got a lot of LH outfielders already, though, not sure Duran is a clear upgrade on any of them. Abreu is definitely the kind of player Jerry goes for, but that’s kind of a light return for one of their SPs.
Duran also has some legit concerns that probably drag down his value. Maybe they find some team that loves him and wants him as a key part of a trade for a pitcher, but I’m skeptical.
Prospects? Anyone other than Mayer/Anthony/Tell should be available for pitching, and I would argue that any of those three should be available for the right pitching (though I don't think there is anyone like that even rumored to be available).
Sox still had one of the best offenses last season. It was streaky but still very good. Looking to have a great bullpen. Defense is already improved.
Really just adding Montgomery would probably add 4 wins…. Yamamoto likely 6 more.
Two good SP’s if they do nothing else and they’re an 88-92 win team IMO
I guess maybe? They’ve made some questionable/infuriating decisions recently, but I’d still hope that if they’re really going to sign Snell and trade (logically but not necessarily) Gilbert, it would be to maximize their current window with Castillo/Cal/Kirby/Crawford and not to get a lotto ticket like Bleis or a maybe-in-a-year type like Yorke.
They’re going to trade him for Abreu and Yorke, aren’t they.
.797 OPS at home, .700 on the road.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=BOS&year=2023
When park adjusted they had an exactly average offense last year. There is definitely room for improvement.
Severino to the Mets, 1 year 13 mil. I'm a patient man and trust that the Sox will improve the rotation, but that does make 6 notable FA starters off the board. All were ranked in the Fangraphs top 50.
Nola
Gray
Maeda
Gibson
Lynn
Severino
Nola
Gray
Maeda
Gibson
Lynn
Severino
At three positions: 2b, SS and C.; the other 6 spots in the order had OPS+ marks of 100 or better. I think we can expect upgrades at two of those, with any injury luck. Not sure Wong can top his 2023 but maybe? And then there is the likely advancement of Casas... anyway, back to this being the SP thread.
Sure. I didn't want Luis Severino or Lance Lynn. But lose out on Yamamoto, and Nola and Gray and perhaps even Maeda being signed cut down the viable plan Bs. And bearing in mind that they want two starters (at least), if too many more Kyle Gibsons and Lance Lynns get signed, those options will shrink too. (As will the number of buyers of course but as I mentioned, the demand for starters seems to outstrip the supply.)
I love getting to hear the Latin players speak Spanish. You get a much better sense of who these guys are as individuals.
On that topic, OMG Bello’s daughter is adorable.
View: https://twitter.com/redsox/status/1729940288720830538?s=46&t=SzrdSkggdLnlBb_l7iGXpg
View: https://twitter.com/redsox/status/1729940288720830538?s=46&t=SzrdSkggdLnlBb_l7iGXpg
The demand for good starters is always going to outstrip supply. That's why Luis Severino is getting $13M despite how poorly he performed last season. The free agent market, particularly at the very top, isn't close to being exhausted yet. And there's still the possibility of a trade (or two). The winter meetings haven't even begun yet. If those end with a bunch more pitchers signed/moved and the Sox still looking, then it might be time for concern. November isn't the time for concern though.
My best guess is a little less than Sevy just got. Possibly the same if a team were desperate for SPs. Neither of them have been at all healthy the past 3 seasons, but Sevy has started 37 games over that time frame whereas Sale has started 31. Sale was better last year, but he's also 5 years older. They're both complete crapshoots at this point though that shouldn't be expected for more than half a season of starts.
To the question of starters coming off the market, I'm a bit more "nervous" than others. Not because of 90% of the pitching transactions that have taken place (though I think I'd have taken the shot on Gray at 3/$75m to be SP3 if that were possible - but he wanted to go to StL it seems like), but because I really wanted Nola.
It also seems there like he was going back to Philly no matter what and just wanted the best possible deal from them, but he was the FA SP this year I really hoped the Sox would land.
Obviously Yamamoto and Montgomery are still out there, but at a certain level, the interest is so high in Yamamoto that I've kind of written him off to another team already.
As to the Mariners and that side of things, a trade I think makes sense for both teams would be Mayer and Verdugo for Logan Gilbert (and for whatever it's worth, this matches on BTV). Though I've been pushing to acquire Gilbert for the better part of a calendar year now.
However, Seattle gets a RF for this year to cover losing Teoscar and since it looks like Mayer will be closer to two years away he coincides nicely with when Crawford's deal would be up. Boston gets the cost controlled top half of the rotation starter it desperately needs. (I think of Gilbert more like a 2 than a 1 and certainly than a true ace, but I really like the pitcher).
Ultimately, I'd try like heck (from the Red Sox perspective) to make that something like Bleis, Yorke and Abreu (which Sea shouldn't do) and I think Seattle would try and make that Duran and Mayer (which the Sox would likely balk on) and thus meet in the middle.
*If they prefer Abreu to Verdugo, so be it.
I'm a bit worried they are playing from behind too. But then I look at that list and see only 2 guys I thought would be decent fits (Nola, Maeda)
I'm worried they are putting all their eggs into the Yamamoto basket and if they miss out will settle for Snell/ERod whom I don't like in Boston.
Hopefully I am wrong and the rumors of them being really motivated to make a big splash is true.
“Strikes are everything,” Bailey said. “Stuff in the zone plays. Limiting walks, being aggressive and ahead in counts. Obviously there’s been a big change in stuff and swing-and-miss and velo and all that. There’s a handful of things, but identifying the KPIs (key performance indicators) that we can hold ourselves accountable for is really a priority.”
This quote from The Athletic would seem to rule out Blake Snell in my view.
This quote from The Athletic would seem to rule out Blake Snell in my view.
I am fine with a couple of tier 2 guys if the Yamamoto bidding gets crazy. My worry is that Stroman/ERod/Montgomery sign elsewhere in the next few days and all of a sudden the secondary options are down to Snell, who scares me given the deal he will get, and guys like Giloito and Imanaga.
The trade market seems more robust than usual such that there's a bit less downside to going all-in on Yamamoto. Maybe they just prefer an extended Burnes, Bieber, or Cease as a back-up rather than the other free agents. Sure, they're gonna cost prospects, but hey if you're going to pay $150M+ anyways may as well get the younger and better pitchers.
I do wonder what a Burnes extension would look like. He's a Boars client, so there would be no "discount" but I do think that (even as a Boras client) if the Red Sox - or any team - traded for Burnes now and subsequently offered him the same deal Nola just signed (or even a bit higher), I'd have to assume he'd instruct Boras to seriously consider that.
One guy that seems like a bit of a sleeper is Jack Flaherty. He gave up a lot of runs after getting traded to the Orioles, but some of the metrics looked pretty sharp, and I kinda trust their staff's (a bunch of ex-Astros analysts and coaches) interest in him.
Breslow mentioned that getting whiffs in the zone was a key performance indicator, and despite Flaherty's struggles, he sure got a lot of them.
Lowest zone contact %, 2023 overall
1. Strider 77.1
2. Ryan 79.7
3. McClanahan 79.9
4. Peralta 80.4
5. Castillo 80.7
6. Snell 80.8
7. Sale 81.2
8. Lynn 81.5
9. Ober 81.5
10. Greene 81.9
Now here's Flaherty's, compared with previous marks.
Jack Flaherty zone contact % / Swinging strike %
2017 STL 80.8 / 13.1
2018 STL 79.8 / 13.4
2019 STL 80.2 / 13.7
2020 STL 81.7 / 14.3
2021 STL 83.2 / 11.6
2022 STL 84.5 / 10.4
2023 STL 85.9 / 10.2
2023 BAL 80.5 / 12.2
If you isolate some other key performance indicators, it seems like the Orioles found something that worked. The results may not have been fully recuperated to his dominant 2018-19, but it looks like we're on their way. After his injuries, it's plausible he just wasn't all the way back. He's 28.
Jack Flaherty K/BB rate
2017 STL 2.00
2018 STL 3.08
2019 STL 4.20
2020 STL 3.06
2021 STL 3.27
2022 STL 1.50
2023 STL 1.96
2023 BAL 3.50
A 3.50 K/BB rate is what Berrios, Montgomery and Sonny Gray put up last year. It's really hard to be a bad pitcher with a 3.5 K/BB rate.
Breslow mentioned that getting whiffs in the zone was a key performance indicator, and despite Flaherty's struggles, he sure got a lot of them.
Lowest zone contact %, 2023 overall
1. Strider 77.1
2. Ryan 79.7
3. McClanahan 79.9
4. Peralta 80.4
5. Castillo 80.7
6. Snell 80.8
7. Sale 81.2
8. Lynn 81.5
9. Ober 81.5
10. Greene 81.9
Now here's Flaherty's, compared with previous marks.
Jack Flaherty zone contact % / Swinging strike %
2017 STL 80.8 / 13.1
2018 STL 79.8 / 13.4
2019 STL 80.2 / 13.7
2020 STL 81.7 / 14.3
2021 STL 83.2 / 11.6
2022 STL 84.5 / 10.4
2023 STL 85.9 / 10.2
2023 BAL 80.5 / 12.2
If you isolate some other key performance indicators, it seems like the Orioles found something that worked. The results may not have been fully recuperated to his dominant 2018-19, but it looks like we're on their way. After his injuries, it's plausible he just wasn't all the way back. He's 28.
Jack Flaherty K/BB rate
2017 STL 2.00
2018 STL 3.08
2019 STL 4.20
2020 STL 3.06
2021 STL 3.27
2022 STL 1.50
2023 STL 1.96
2023 BAL 3.50
A 3.50 K/BB rate is what Berrios, Montgomery and Sonny Gray put up last year. It's really hard to be a bad pitcher with a 3.5 K/BB rate.
Fully endorse. Flaherty would be a great target and likely would even be in addition to the top two starters they aim to acquire.
Yeah I think we may be planning to sign one and trade for one from our surplus outfield supply plus prospects.
I would be fine if our off season pitching additions are Yamamoto + Flaherty.
Jack Flaherty has some weird stuff going on & hasn't been actually good since 2019...but there are some interesting pitch mix things that seem pretty fixable.
He only threw a changeup 86 times this year...but it was by far his most effective pitch. This was actually the most he's ever thrown it, as he has ranged from 8 last year to 77 previously in his career. He also had a really good sinker through '21, including having it being his best pitch in his best season, 2019, when he threw it 12% of the time. This year he threw it 2% of the time & it sucked.
He went to a cutter for the 1st time in '22 & only threw a few of them, but this season he threw it 9% of the time & it was 1 of his worst 2 pitches along with his slider which he threw 25% of the time & has never been effective since '20.
His fastball is pretty slow (93), but has some movement & has not been as ineffective as his cutter & slider. His curveball has been his most successful pitch that he throws regularly (19%) & has been a good pitch for him the last few years.
So his pitch mix last year was:
4-seam fastball: 41.7%
Slider: 24.6%
Curveball: 19.4%
Cutter: 9.1%
Changeup: 3.3%
Sinker: 2%
I think he would be a much better pitcher simply by switching to something like this...
4-seam fastball: 38%
Curveball: 25%
Changeup: 14%
Sinker: 12%
Slider: 11%
I would also consider completely replacing whatever is going on with his slider/cutter with some sort of sweeper.
Jack Flaherty has some weird stuff going on & hasn't been actually good since 2019...but there are some interesting pitch mix things that seem pretty fixable.
He only threw a changeup 86 times this year...but it was by far his most effective pitch. This was actually the most he's ever thrown it, as he has ranged from 8 last year to 77 previously in his career. He also had a really good sinker through '21, including having it being his best pitch in his best season, 2019, when he threw it 12% of the time. This year he threw it 2% of the time & it sucked.
He went to a cutter for the 1st time in '22 & only threw a few of them, but this season he threw it 9% of the time & it was 1 of his worst 2 pitches along with his slider which he threw 25% of the time & has never been effective since '20.
His fastball is pretty slow (93), but has some movement & has not been as ineffective as his cutter & slider. His curveball has been his most successful pitch that he throws regularly (19%) & has been a good pitch for him the last few years.
So his pitch mix last year was:
4-seam fastball: 41.7%
Slider: 24.6%
Curveball: 19.4%
Cutter: 9.1%
Changeup: 3.3%
Sinker: 2%
I think he would be a much better pitcher simply by switching to something like this...
4-seam fastball: 38%
Curveball: 25%
Changeup: 14%
Sinker: 12%
Slider: 11%
I would also consider completely replacing whatever is going on with his slider/cutter with some sort of sweeper.
Jen McCaffrey had kind of a non-update regarding the Red Sox starting pitching search:
That reminds me, time to cancel my Athletic free trial lol
https://theathletic.com/5097406/2023/11/30/red-sox-starting-pitching-search/
That reminds me, time to cancel my Athletic free trial lol
Seeing a Red Sox coach use "KPIs" sets me all a-tingle. Baseball is so much about the process, more than other sports, and measuring KPIs that predict the best outcomes is such a mature approach.
"About the process": Hitting the most line drives yields the most hits, even if some hits are dribblers and some line drives are caught. So use line drives as a KPI, not batting average.
I saw Craig Breslow and his family at the Rudoph musical over the weekend. I hope it doesn't indicate that he's going to be shopping at the Island of Misfit Toys for starting pitching with Chaim Bloom. You might really love your development process, but that can't be the entirety of the staff, especially in year one.
It's a minor point, but I suspect Sale would get more. If you are talking a short deal -- which you would be -- then their ages wouldn't matter. I would argue Sale's reasonable trends (e.g. 11.0 k/9 still) are much more promising than Severino's cratering numbers (k/9, h/9) and his recent injuries aren't as terrifying as Severino's, although obviously both have been through a lot.
Nick Martinez is also off the table for 2/$26m to the Reds.
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1730121551100383686
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1730121551100383686
Could be. I was looking at the short term deals so far this year, and relative youth (Sevy) has gotten more than older and better (at least last year) pitchers.
Basically I was looking at Lynn getting $10m from StL; Maeda getting an average of $12m (granted two years), Gibson getting 1/$12m and Sevy getting $13m and assuming Sale would get a bit more than Maeda and Gibson but a bit less than Sevy. Not that it really matters because Sale isn't a free agent and I can't imagine the Sox getting any offers on him at his current deal.
The Lynn & Gibson contracts are a bit more complicated than that.
Lynn is guaranteed at least $11m due to the team option in '25 with a $1m buyout, & there are up to $3m in incentives available.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/cardinals-sign-lance-lynn.html
Gibson is guaranteed at least $13m due to to the team option in '25 with a $1m buyout, can earn $500k if he pitches 175 innings, & has a $1m trade kicker.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/details-on-sonny-gray-kyle-gibson-contracts.html
I would be surprised if Sale didn't get more than all of those guys on a 1-year contract, but yeah, it's all pretty moot.
Severino does have an additional $2m available in performance bonuses on his contract, too.
What do we have to add to Justin Turner to get them to bite...
In all seriousness, he's a piece I'd like the Sox to be involved with. He seems to get hurt every year so he's a natural fit for the Red Sox rotation, but that's also probably why they're likely to listen on him. I basically see him as another version of Tanner Houck, and I'd be really happy to have multiples of Tanner Houck (in terms of value, age, control, decent prospect pedigree and the like, I'm not talking about their arsenal), if for no other reason than it makes it easier to acquire better SPs if you have controllable MLB pitching to include.
Much like the Mariners, the Marlins have pitching coming out of every orifice of their organization but very little in the way of position players. That is a spot where I could see a deal of Yorke for Cabrera making sense for both teams.
I suspect their top two choices are Yamamoto and Montgomery. If they could get both of them, they probably would, and that would be great. But even one of them would be good, but they'd still need another, which might be through a trade (Burnes, Gilbert, Bieber, etc.) if they can find a match. If not, they'll probably move to the next tier of FAs, like E-Rod and Imanaga (who frankly intrigues me after seeing some video of him that I think was posted on MassLive a couple of weeks ago - not a ton of velocity but his stuff looks nasty).
If they lose out on both YY and Monty, they could probably live with getting two out of the remaining group (by trade or FA, although I agree that Snell is probably not who they want). But I'm reasonably optimistic they can get at least one of YY or Monty.
If they lose out on both YY and Monty, they could probably live with getting two out of the remaining group (by trade or FA, although I agree that Snell is probably not who they want). But I'm reasonably optimistic they can get at least one of YY or Monty.
On the bright side, we're already deep in mid-tier pitchers.
I've been diving into xERA lately:
& it should get rid of things like the park effects of playing in Fenway & the Red Sox being awful at defense.
So let's sort all the Red Sox guys (Red), some remaining FAs (Blue), some guys who have already signed (Green), & some potential trade targets (Gold), in order by their xERA in '23, with their career best in parens (* for guys who probably are going to be out for at least a lot of '24).
Brandon Woodruff 2.86 (2.86)*
Kutter Crawford 3.30 (3.30)
Corbin Burnes 3.40 (2.00)
Bryan Woo 3.48 (3.48)
Tyler Mahle 3.49 ['22] (3.37)*
Tyler Glasnow 3.63 (3.31)
Sonny Gray 3.69 (3.25)
Logan Gilbert 3.69 (3.69)
Chris Sale 3.71 (2.26)
Chris Murphy 3.71 (3.71)
Aaron Nola 3.77 (2.74)
Kenta Maeda 3.77 (2.75)
Blake Snell 3.77 (3.04)
Edward Cabrera 3.79 (3.79)
Clayton Kershaw 3.82 (2.05)*
James Paxton 3.82 (2.76)
Shohei Ohtani 3.85 (2.68)*
Hyun Jin Ryu 3.93 (3.01)
Nick Pivetta 3.98 (3.52)
Frankie Montas 4.00 ['22] (3.43)
Eduardo Rodriguez 4.04 (3.47)
Jordan Montgomery 4.04 (3.90)
Dylan Cease 4.07 (2.70)
Nick Martinez 4.10 (3.83)
Vince Velasquez 4.13 (3.68)*
Marcus Stroman 4.18 (3.44)
Sean Manaea 4.18 (3.96)
Brayan Bello 4.21 (3.80)
Tanner Houck 4.30 (3.20)
Michael Wacha 4.30 (3.72)
Wade Miley 4.36 (3.99)
Paul Blackburn 4.45 (4.14)
Brandon Walter 4.45 (4.45)
Seth Lugo 4.48 (2.43)
Michael Lorenzen 4.55 (3.18)
Lucas Giolito 4.61 (3.04)
Alex Wood 4.64 (3.32)
Garrett Whitlock 4.67 (2.94)
Kyle Gibson 4.73 (3.84)
Shane Bieber 4.77 (2.62)
Bryce Miller 4.83 (4.83)
Lance Lynn 4.86 (2.72)
Martin Perez 4.86 (3.59)
Zack Greinke 5.06 (2.64)
Jack Flaherty 5.10 (3.25)
Rich Hill 5.70 (2.78)
Luis Severino 5.96 (2.94)
Dakota Hudson 6.08 (3.60)
Corey Kluber 6.24 (2.59)
Not included because idk if there is xERA data from Japan & it wouldn't be apples to apples anyway: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, Trevor Bauer & Yariel Rodriguez.
Kind of random that the top 3 available FA by xERA who are available to pitch in '24 (Snell is tied with 2 of them), have already signed. Anyway, there are still a ton of pitchers left. & Kutter Crawford had a remarkably good xERA season.
Eh, I mean there aren't a lot of 3-team trades in baseball, but we have plenty of prospect capital, & the Mariners could use that, or their own prospect capital which they would replenish in the trade with us, to flip for the type of hitters they want, especially if they sign Blake Snell. But most of these people aren't really likely to go to the Red Sox for one reason or another (including the fact we don't need 53 starting pitchers), & I was mostly just grabbing info for guys I've seen circulated in trade rumors one place or another. So not really any point in taking them off the list.