Pretty sure 538 doesn’t have anything that captures Hayward being Hayward or players accepting their roles and playing way better defense.538 only giving Boston a 21% chance of beating Bucks.
Of course, that's better than the 20% it gives Philly to beat Toronto.
The key to the Milwaukee series may be controlling Bledsoe, who did not play well last year and who is reportedly looking for redemption. The Celtics have to deal with George Hill as well.538 only giving Boston a 21% chance of beating Bucks.
Of course, that's better than the 20% it gives Philly to beat Toronto.
Well, when the series line comes out, I would bet it's pretty close to those numbers. That said, I agree with you. 538 doesn't account for injuries. If Giannis was hurt in Game 4, those numbers would not move.Pretty sure 538 doesn’t have anything that captures Hayward being Hayward or players accepting their roles and playing way better defense.
Bucks should/will be favorites, but those 538 numbers have basically zero information value.
Bledsoe had a good season but the reason he struggled was because the Cs defenders (mostly Rozay) shut him down. He may be seeking redemption but its not clear how he will find it.The key to the Milwaukee series may be controlling Bledsoe, who did not play well last year and who is reportedly looking for redemption. The Celtics have to deal with George Hill as well.
How large are you thinking? I'm guessing we are +7 on the road (give or take a half pt/pt)......and around even at home. The Celtics have gotten much greater respect from the numbers all season than your typical 49-win team.I eagerly look forward to Celtics as large underdogs line is posted.
Hurt his hammy. Missed game 1 against Sixers too.Will Theis pick up some of Monroe's minutes?
Presumably Gordon gets most of Semi's minutes.
What happened to Jaylen last year in G7? I can't recall.
That was the game Jaylen hurt his hamstring. He came back in game 2 of the 76ers series.Will Theis pick up some of Monroe's minutes?
Presumably Gordon gets most of Semi's minutes.
What happened to Jaylen last year in G7? I can't recall.
Whatever it was, Id guess that he'd be less effective at it this year simply because Giannis is a better player than he was last year. Giannis is like the Borg. Have to keep changing the configuration of the weaponry to slow him a bit. And if nothing else, Semi's unusual physical profile - strong, not short, doesn't jump -- is different than the others.What's the nature of the matchup advantage that makes Semi able to contain Giannis better than most? Is it just his strength being able to resist being backed down in the post? It's surely not footspeed and quickness, nor blocking ability at the rim. I just want to understand if I should be rooting for him to come in and be a "Giannis-banger" to tire him out for 10-15 per night, like how we used Baynes and Monroe against Embiid last year, or if he's too much of a black hole to see more than rare spot duty.
Mark Blount Port Cellar Stars And Celebrities: What Do They Know? Do They Know Things?? Let's Find Out!If we started a Round 2 thread and listed the Bucks, would we be jinxing the Bucks?
Let's find out.
Well, you might be jinxing the Pistons. Will poor Dwayne Casey ever win a playoff game?If we started a Round 2 thread and listed the Bucks, would we be jinxing the Bucks?
Let's find out.
Love hearing this. Dude was 100% on tilt last year. I expect a repeat performance.who is reportedly looking for redemption.
I don’t see the relevance to last year since the Bucks rotation and their systems are completely different as are ours with Kyrie and Haywood. The only pieces in place are Giannis, Bledsoe and Middleton.......every other rotation player and head coach is new. The Bucks offense under Kidd, where they hardly ever shot 3’s, doesn’t at all resemble it under Bud where 3’s and spacing for Giannis are the staples.I think they'll probably be +225 or something similar for the series. That puts them around 30% odds, when it should be closer to 65% based my biased expectations. I'm just glad we don't have to deal with Thon Maker's ridiculous +24 +/-, 3 for 4 3-point shooting game this year. I like opening on the road, feels like we have a good chance to steal one. Gives us more flexibility if we come out slow and need to adjust in game 2, with some house money if we come out solid again.
Here are minutes by game last year. Factor in Game 1 went to OT and game 3 was a blow out .
Jaylen: 45 / 33 / 29 / 41 / 38 / 40 / 16
Tatum: 44 / 30 / 27 / 36 / 25 / 32 / 39
Al: 44 / 35 / 24 / 37 / 37 / 33 / 33
Rozier: 40 / 38 / 31 / 36 / 33 / 37 / 36
Baynes: 14 / 24 / 30 / 19 / (not starting) 10 / (n.s.) 9 / (n.s) 15
Semi: 14 / 1 (!) / 13 / 17 / (starting) 31 (!) / (starting) 22 / (starting) 29
Morris: 35 / 30 / 25 / 26 / 26 / 26 / 24
Smart: DND (did not dress) / DND / DND / DND / 25 / 26 / 32
Larkin (!): 16 / 20 / 19 / 16 / 14 / 9 / 14
Monroe (!!): 10 / 16 / 23 / 5 / 0 / 3 / 0
#1 - Holy crap, this current season's team is SO much more talented. Replacing Rozier's minutes with Kyrie, Larkin's minutes with Rozier, adding in Hayward and improvements for Tatum/Brown. This really is a completely different team.
#2 - It's amazing that team won the first two games with Larkin, Monroe, and Morris getting so many minutes.
#3 - not surprising how different the 3 pt shooting was if the Celtics were home (42% / 42% / 32% / 35%) vs away (33% / 34% / 28%) given the cast of characters.
#4 - Clearly the pivot to Semi starting (over Baynes) in game 5 was the big move. Smart coming back for game 5 took minutes from Monroe and Larkin. Really, the Celtics just played smaller, with Baynes + Monroe's minutes significantly lower for those last 3 games.
#5 - I expect a lot of Kyrie/Jaylen/Hayward/Tatum/Al in critical minutes, ideally with some time for Semi. But I think Brad's going to make Giannis kill us before he goes to Semi instead of planning to use him for 15 min a game.
Can't wait.
He has 21 career playoff wins as a head coach.Well, you might be jinxing the Pistons. Will poor Dwayne Casey ever win a playoff game?
The Bucks are playing the Pistons currently. The winner of Celtics/Bucks plays the winner of the 76ers/Raptors, barring a major comeback.Having said that, if they Celtics beat the Bucks they will likely beat the Pistons-- and so will the Bucks if they eliminate the Celtics. The EC finals are in the 2nd round.
Celtics v Bucks went head to head 3X this season. Let's take a look at how the "new look" Bucks played the Celtics (box scores attached):I don’t see the relevance to last year since the Bucks rotation and their systems are completely different as are ours with Kyrie and Haywood. The only pieces in place are Giannis, Bledsoe and Middleton.......every other rotation player and head coach is new. The Bucks offense under Kidd, where they hardly ever shot 3’s, doesn’t at all resemble it under Bud where 3’s and spacing for Giannis are the staples.
I don’t really share the optimism I’m hearing here, on the streets and on the radio. Winning a playoff game in Wisconsin will be a tall order......if we don’t sweep at home then winning 2 out there figures to be near impossible. I think we’ll be very competitive in these games but to have a chance we’ll have to steal one of the first two.....otherwise this could end in 5.
Wish I could share your optimism, and I will note that in that Game 2, the Celtics built a large early lead before getting completely rolled after.Celtics v Bucks went head to head 3X this season. Let's take a look at how the "new look" Bucks played the Celtics (box scores attached):
Game 1 Celtics 117 Bucks 113
The Celtics shoot lights out, set a team record w/24 3-pointers. C's almost blow a big 4th quarter lead, foreshadowing the rest of the regular season. Bucks fully healthy. Celtics played w/out Jaylen Brown, Semi started in his place.
http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401070796
Game 2 12/21 @Boston Bucks 120 Celtics 107
Bucks easily handle the Celtics from the tip, C's down 17 at the Half.
Bucks fully healthy. Celtics w/out Horford, Baynes, & Morris Sr.
Brad starts Semi and Hayward as his 4/5. Theis, TL, Yabo play 37 mins put up a -9.
http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071154
Game 3 2/21 @Milwaukee Bucks 98 Celtics 97
Kyrie misses an awkward last-second shot from 10 feet.
Bucks at full strength. Celtics w/out Hayward and Baynes.
Brad plays HRB favorites Yabu/Theis a total of 11 minutes and they produce a -13. We won't see either of them play meaningful minutes in this series.
http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071543
The finally healthy Celtics (well, no Smart) match up well with the Bucks. If Brogdon plays I see a rugged 7-game series. The Bucks haven't seen the new and improved Gordon Hayward. A healthy Baynes (20-25MPG) helps Horford clog the lane to slow down Giannis. Perimeter Lopez shouldn't really expose MaMo defensively. Rozier/Kyrie will be in Bledsoe's grill. Brown can somewhat handle Middleton. Horford w/Semi will try to keep Giannis around 30pgm.
IMO Brogdon is huge, IF he is out the Celtics win this in 6.
Gasol isn't on the Bucks unless I am misunderstanding you.I'm not at all optimistic about beating the Bucks. Budenholzer makes all the difference, together with a veteran bench. Maybe George Hill is on his last legs, but guys like Hill, Gasol, and Ilyasova aren't going to make dumb mistakes.
Having said that, if they Celtics beat the Bucks the will likely beat the Raptors-- and so will the Bucks if they eliminate the Celtics. The EC finals are in the 2nd round.
Oh no! Eric Bledsoe and George Hill!The key to the Milwaukee series may be controlling Bledsoe, who did not play well last year and who is reportedly looking for redemption. The Celtics have to deal with George Hill as well.
Yeah, I apologize. I thought he was referencing Marc. Pau never crossed my mind because if George Hill is washed, Pau is basically a corpse who keeps getting them checks.Pau Gasol, if healthy, would barely see the floor, if at all
Is that bizarre Spurs contract of his still going?Yeah, I apologize. I thought he was referencing Marc. Pau never crossed my mind because if George Hill is washed, Pau is basically a corpse who keeps getting them checks.
He got bought out for $22.7mm (this year's contract plus a partial guarantee of $6.7mm for next year) but gave the Spurs $2.5mm back. He then signed with the Bucks for $527+ thousand. Not bad work for a guy who likely has already played his last games in the NBAIs that bizarre Spurs contract of his still going?
Don't worry, we'll keep the lights on for youWish I could share your optimism, and I will note that in that Game 2, the Celtics built a large early lead before getting completely rolled after.
I think that the Celtics will need to make a ton of 3s in order to win this series, and I think the game-to-game variance, combined with the Cs tendency to drift to bad habits when shots don't fall, have Milwaukee winning this in 6.
Not sure what you mean by MIL's "perimeter oriented game." Giannis lead the league with just shy of 8 restricted area buckets a game. And he shot something like 27% outside the restricted area. MIL also took 34 shots per game in the restricted area and made them at a 66% clip. They apparently became just the 2nd team to hit 56+% on 2P shots. https://www.reddit.com/r/MkeBucks/comments/bg8mfk/the_bucks_set_the_nba_record_for_2p_this_season/.
where our wing depth will be much needed vs the Bucks fast pace and perimeter oriented game.
All 5 Bucks starters and every one of their bench players play face up from the perimeter. They were 2nd in the NBA in 3-pt attempts......everything they do is initiated on the perimeter. Even Giannis is most dangerous going downhill from 18-feet off the dribble and of course can dominate in the paint as well.Not sure what you mean by MIL's "perimeter oriented game." Giannis lead the league with just shy of 8 restricted area buckets a game. And he shot something like 27% outside the restricted area. MIL also took 34 shots per game in the restricted area and made them at a 66% clip. They apparently became just the 2nd team to hit 56+% on 2P shots. https://www.reddit.com/r/MkeBucks/comments/bg8mfk/the_bucks_set_the_nba_record_for_2p_this_season/
My initial reaction to the matchup is that BOS has to run Brook Lopez off the court. MIL doesn't swith on PnRs (at least they didn't) so the Cs big men are going to have to hit enough 3Ps to get MIL out of their drop coverage.
Also, so long as Lopez is standing at the 3P line, I'm not guarding him with a big guy.
This chess match will be fun. I expect game 6 to be played much differently than Game 1.
Yes pack the defensive paintPack the paint and make the Bucks hit jump shots. I'd start with Jaylen on Giannis.
I have some even better history: Celtics beat Bucks in 1974 for all the marbles. It was the first Celtics' championship, and the last Oscar Robertson I can remember. The Celtics took game 7 by doubling-teaming Kareem, fronting him with Cowens and relying on Silas to root him out of his favorite positions. In an era where Kareem's post game was the deadliest weapon in sport, the Celtics found a way to neutralize the star by by giving Buck PF Cornell Warner a chance to make his name in history. Warner remains nearly anonymous to this day.Some good history in this series (Celtics win last year); some bad (Bucks sweep in 1983 that led to Bill Fitch getting sh!tcanned).
Baynes would end up taking a lot of threes. As Jay King said on Twitter,I think you consider starting Hayward (or Morris) with this group.Yes pack the defensive paint
Al Horford on Giannis
Brown on Middleton
Kyrie on Bledsoe
Tatum on Sterling
Baynes on Lopez
OK. To me, everything starts with Giannis and his attacks on the basket, whether it is the half court or transition. Giannis lead the league in 3P assists. If The Cs can build a wall in the restricted area, that will help them a lot.All 5 Bucks starters and every one of their bench players play face up from the perimeter. They were 2nd in the NBA in 3-pt attempts......everything they do is initiated on the perimeter. Even Giannis is most dangerous going downhill from 18-feet off the dribble and of course can dominate in the paint as well.
Unless I am misunderstanding what HRB was saying in the other thread, Milwaukee isn't very efficient from deep. They were second in 3PA during the season but 15th in 3P%. Brogdon and Middleton are good outside shooters as is Snell in limited run. The rest of their cast includes Lopez who had uneven three point shooting and may have been a bit lucky/streaky from deep this season as well as role players. Ilyasova, Dellavedova and Brown are all decent but as anyone can recall, Ersan is a bit of a liability on defense (he looks half calcified on any given sequence).The single most interesting schematic theme to this series will be MIL's drop coverage on the PnR. That means if the other team is setting the screen, MIL's big - usually Lopez - is dropping down into the restricted area while the other defender trails the ball handler. The theory here is to (1) protect the rim and (2) force ordinarily worse shooting bigs into taking 3Ps. As such, MIL is really high in 3P attempts against and 3P makes against.
This works well against teams like DET that don't have stretch 5s. We'll see how that fares against BOS. In their game. the only game when BOS was at full strength, BOS hit 40% if a ton of 3P and won.
Here's a breakdown on the game in February that discusses the drop coverage (with video!): https://thebasketballplaybook.com/blog-posts/breakdown-milwaukee-bucks-vs-boston-celtics/.
If Al and MaMo and GH are hitting 40+% from 3P at the end of the series, I would think BOS will be in the conference finals.