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Round 2: Celtics vs. Bucks

Discussion in 'Mark Blount's Port Cellar: Celtics Forum' started by DrewDawg, Apr 22, 2019.

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Who wins?

Poll closed Apr 27, 2019.
  1. Celtics in 4

    1.6%
  2. Celtics in 5

    0.8%
  3. Celtics in 6

    38.1%
  4. Celtics in 7

    23.8%
  5. Bucks in 4

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  6. Bucks in 5

    5.6%
  7. Bucks in 6

    19.0%
  8. Bucks in 7

    11.1%
  1. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,360
    538 only giving Boston a 21% chance of beating Bucks.

    Of course, that's better than the 20% it gives Philly to beat Toronto.
     
  2. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    3,769
    Pretty sure 538 doesn’t have anything that captures Hayward being Hayward or players accepting their roles and playing way better defense.

    Bucks should/will be favorites, but those 538 numbers have basically zero information value.
     
  3. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    1,466
    The key to the Milwaukee series may be controlling Bledsoe, who did not play well last year and who is reportedly looking for redemption. The Celtics have to deal with George Hill as well.
     
  4. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,951
    I eagerly look forward to Celtics as large underdogs line is posted.
     
  5. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,360
    Well, when the series line comes out, I would bet it's pretty close to those numbers. That said, I agree with you. 538 doesn't account for injuries. If Giannis was hurt in Game 4, those numbers would not move.

    And we have a week off, it's gonna get boring...
     
  6. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,838
    Bledsoe had a good season but the reason he struggled was because the Cs defenders (mostly Rozay) shut him down. He may be seeking redemption but its not clear how he will find it.

    And if George Hill beats the Cs, they probably don't deserve to be in this round. He is pretty clearly washed/a shell of the player he used to be.

    Both guys are relatively poor three point shooters so aside from the obvious in Antetokounmpo, the guys the Cs will have a problem with are Middleton and Brogdon, if healthy.
     
  7. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    17,498
    How large are you thinking? I'm guessing we are +7 on the road (give or take a half pt/pt)......and around even at home. The Celtics have gotten much greater respect from the numbers all season than your typical 49-win team.
     
  8. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,951
    I think they'll probably be +225 or something similar for the series. That puts them around 30% odds, when it should be closer to 65% based my biased expectations. I'm just glad we don't have to deal with Thon Maker's ridiculous +24 +/-, 3 for 4 3-point shooting game this year. I like opening on the road, feels like we have a good chance to steal one. Gives us more flexibility if we come out slow and need to adjust in game 2, with some house money if we come out solid again.

    Here are minutes by game last year. Factor in Game 1 went to OT and game 3 was a blow out .

    Jaylen: 45 / 33 / 29 / 41 / 38 / 40 / 16
    Tatum: 44 / 30 / 27 / 36 / 25 / 32 / 39
    Al: 44 / 35 / 24 / 37 / 37 / 33 / 33
    Rozier: 40 / 38 / 31 / 36 / 33 / 37 / 36
    Baynes: 14 / 24 / 30 / 19 / (not starting) 10 / (n.s.) 9 / (n.s) 15
    Semi: 14 / 1 (!) / 13 / 17 / (starting) 31 (!) / (starting) 22 / (starting) 29
    Morris: 35 / 30 / 25 / 26 / 26 / 26 / 24
    Smart: DND (did not dress) / DND / DND / DND / 25 / 26 / 32
    Larkin (!): 16 / 20 / 19 / 16 / 14 / 9 / 14
    Monroe (!!): 10 / 16 / 23 / 5 / 0 / 3 / 0

    #1 - Holy crap, this current season's team is SO much more talented. Replacing Rozier's minutes with Kyrie, Larkin's minutes with Rozier, adding in Hayward and improvements for Tatum/Brown. This really is a completely different team.
    #2 - It's amazing that team won the first two games with Larkin, Monroe, and Morris getting so many minutes.
    #3 - not surprising how different the 3 pt shooting was if the Celtics were home (42% / 42% / 32% / 35%) vs away (33% / 34% / 28%) given the cast of characters.
    #4 - Clearly the pivot to Semi starting (over Baynes) in game 5 was the big move. Smart coming back for game 5 took minutes from Monroe and Larkin. Really, the Celtics just played smaller, with Baynes + Monroe's minutes significantly lower for those last 3 games.
    #5 - I expect a lot of Kyrie/Jaylen/Hayward/Tatum/Al in critical minutes, ideally with some time for Semi. But I think Brad's going to make Giannis kill us before he goes to Semi instead of planning to use him for 15 min a game.

    Can't wait.
     
  9. Saints Rest

    Saints Rest Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    7,052
    Will Theis pick up some of Monroe's minutes?

    Presumably Gordon gets most of Semi's minutes.

    What happened to Jaylen last year in G7? I can't recall.
     
  10. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,360
    Completely forgot that Smart missed those first 4 games against them last year.
     
  11. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,360
    Hurt his hammy. Missed game 1 against Sixers too.
     
  12. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

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    That was the game Jaylen hurt his hamstring. He came back in game 2 of the 76ers series.

    It's really amazing the narrative from last year was that the Celtics barely got by the Bucks instead of - the Celtics were without 2 of their max players (Kyrie / Hayward), their 6th man for 4 games (Smart), and in game 7 lost one of their key starters (Brown) and were able to still win the series because their coach completely changed the structure of their team within the same series to adapt.
     
  13. InstaFace

    InstaFace MDLzera

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    7,252
    What's the nature of the matchup advantage that makes Semi able to contain Giannis better than most? Is it just his strength being able to resist being backed down in the post? It's surely not footspeed and quickness, nor blocking ability at the rim. I just want to understand if I should be rooting for him to come in and be a "Giannis-banger" to tire him out for 10-15 per night, like how we used Baynes and Monroe against Embiid last year, or if he's too much of a black hole to see more than rare spot duty.
     
  14. Koufax

    Koufax Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,244
    He's strong and he doesn't leave his feet when his opponent tries a fake, so some moves that work against others don't work against him. He's also 6 extra fouls to give. He's not a Giannis killer by any means but he's useful.
     
  15. joe dokes

    joe dokes Member SoSH Member

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    12,559
    Whatever it was, Id guess that he'd be less effective at it this year simply because Giannis is a better player than he was last year. Giannis is like the Borg. Have to keep changing the configuration of the weaponry to slow him a bit. And if nothing else, Semi's unusual physical profile - strong, not short, doesn't jump -- is different than the others.
     
  16. tbrown_01923

    tbrown_01923 Member SoSH Member

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    401
    Semi moves his feet well and is able to cut off attack angles and his defensive weakness is contesting jump shots - which is less of a concern with the freak. If he beats them from outside - so be it.
     
  17. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,360
    If we started a Round 2 thread and listed the Bucks, would we be jinxing the Bucks?

    Let's find out.
     
  18. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,838
    Mark Blount Port Cellar Stars And Celebrities: What Do They Know? Do They Know Things?? Let's Find Out!
     
  19. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    1,466
    Well, you might be jinxing the Pistons. Will poor Dwayne Casey ever win a playoff game?
     
  20. Red Averages

    Red Averages owes you $50 SoSH Member

    Messages:
    4,951
    Interesting in looking at Giannis's shooting this year, vs the past few:

    Biggest difference? He is shooing 41% from 16 ft - 3 pt instead of ~34% the past few years...... BUT he is only taking 6% of his shots from that distance now. He's actually taking more 3s this year (16% vs 10% a year ago) and only hitting 25.6% from 3. His whole game is 0-3 feet (57% of shots / 77% makes).

    Shot percent by distance:
    0-3 ft = 77% (76% last year / 71% year before)
    3-10 ft = 34% (35% last year / 39% year before)
    10-16 ft = 38% (35% last year / 34% year before)
    16 - 3pt = 41% (34% last year / 34% year before)
    3pt = 25.6% (31% last year / 27% year before)

    And shot breakdown:
    0-3 ft = 57% (45% / 50%)
    3-10 ft = 15% (17% / 15%)
    10-16 ft = 5% (11% / 6%)
    16 - 3pt = 6% (16% / 15%)
    3pt = 16% (10% / 14%)

    So he's gotten better at hitting just inside of 3 pt shots, which is likely leading to more pump fake and drives into dunks.
     
  21. CoffeeNerdness

    CoffeeNerdness Member SoSH Member

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    3,425
    Love hearing this. Dude was 100% on tilt last year. I expect a repeat performance.
     
  22. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    17,498
    I don’t see the relevance to last year since the Bucks rotation and their systems are completely different as are ours with Kyrie and Haywood. The only pieces in place are Giannis, Bledsoe and Middleton.......every other rotation player and head coach is new. The Bucks offense under Kidd, where they hardly ever shot 3’s, doesn’t at all resemble it under Bud where 3’s and spacing for Giannis are the staples.

    I don’t really share the optimism I’m hearing here, on the streets and on the radio. Winning a playoff game in Wisconsin will be a tall order......if we don’t sweep at home then winning 2 out there figures to be near impossible. I think we’ll be very competitive in these games but to have a chance we’ll have to steal one of the first two.....otherwise this could end in 5.
     
  23. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    1,466
    I'm not at all optimistic about beating the Bucks. Budenholzer makes all the difference, together with a veteran bench. Maybe George Hill is on his last legs, but guys like Hill, Gasol, and Ilyasova aren't going to make dumb mistakes.

    Having said that, if they Celtics beat the Bucks the will likely beat the Raptors-- and so will the Bucks if they eliminate the Celtics. The EC finals are in the 2nd round.
     
    #23 Big John, Apr 22, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019
  24. HowBoutDemSox

    HowBoutDemSox Member SoSH Member

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    3,719
    He has 21 career playoff wins as a head coach.
    The Bucks are playing the Pistons currently. The winner of Celtics/Bucks plays the winner of the 76ers/Raptors, barring a major comeback.
     
  25. Big John

    Big John lurker

    Messages:
    1,466
    Misspoke. Meant the Raptors.

    I think either the Celtics or the Bucks will beat the Raptors, assuming that Toronto beats Philadelphia (which seems likely). I thought Marc Gasol would be the missing piece for the Raptors, but he hasn't been so far.
     
  26. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,068
    Celtics v Bucks went head to head 3X this season. Let's take a look at how the "new look" Bucks played the Celtics (box scores attached):

    Game 1 11/1 @Boston Celtics 117 Bucks 113
    The Celtics shoot lights out, set a team record w/24 3-pointers. C's almost blow a big 4th quarter lead, foreshadowing the rest of the regular season. Bucks fully healthy. Celtics played w/out Jaylen Brown, Semi started in his place.
    http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401070796

    Game 2 12/21 @Boston Bucks 120 Celtics 107
    Bucks easily handle the Celtics from the tip, C's down 17 at the Half.
    Bucks fully healthy. Celtics w/out Horford, Baynes, & Morris Sr.
    Brad starts Semi and Hayward as his 4/5. Theis, TL, Yabo play 37 mins put up a -9.
    http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071154

    Game 3 2/21 @Milwaukee Bucks 98 Celtics 97
    Kyrie misses an awkward last-second shot from 10 feet.
    Bucks at full strength. Celtics w/out Hayward and Baynes.
    Brad plays HRB favorites Yabu/Theis a total of 11 minutes and they produce a -13. We won't see either of them play meaningful minutes in this series.
    http://www.espn.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=401071543


    The finally healthy Celtics (well, no Smart) match up well with the Bucks. If Brogdon plays I see a rugged 7-game series. The Bucks haven't seen the new and improved Gordon Hayward. A healthy Baynes (20-25MPG) helps Horford clog the lane to slow down Giannis. Perimeter Lopez shouldn't really expose MaMo defensively. Rozier/Kyrie will be in Bledsoe's grill. Brown can somewhat handle Middleton. Horford w/Semi will try to keep Giannis around 30pgm.

    IMO Brogdon is huge IF he is out the Celtics win this in 6.
     
  27. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    3,769
    Wish I could share your optimism, and I will note that in that Game 2, the Celtics built a large early lead before getting completely rolled after.

    I think that the Celtics will need to make a ton of 3s in order to win this series, and I think the game-to-game variance, combined with the Cs tendency to drift to bad habits when shots don't fall, have Milwaukee winning this in 6.
     
  28. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    27,838
    Gasol isn't on the Bucks unless I am misunderstanding you.

    And please take a look at George Hill's numbers. The guy is the epitome of a savvy veteran but its not mistakes where he will cost the Bucks. He has lost a few steps and Stevens/the Cs will target him on the defensive end much the way Budenholzer will target the Celtics weaker defenders.

    You may know this better than most here but InstaFace and others have highlighted how these series are about match-ups given that teams only have to focus on one opponent. The Cs have a tall order stopping Milwaukee because Giannis cannot really be stopped and he has a guy like Middleton, who is a matchup nightmare given his length and skill set as well as Brogdon who can also make teams pay in multiple ways.

    Boston is going to have to play their best basketball this round to even win a game in Milwaukee. That said, given how they played down the stretch and in the first round, they have a shot. But the Bucks should be the favorite in this series imho.
     
  29. jon abbey

    jon abbey Shanghai Warrior Dope SoSH Member

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    40,989
    Pau is on MIL, Marc is on TOR.

    Edit: Pau is hurt, but they said ‘out for a month’ a month ago, so maybe back soon.
     
  30. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

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    33,360
    Oh no! Eric Bledsoe and George Hill!
     
  31. the moops

    the moops Member SoSH Member

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    2,064
    Pau Gasol, if healthy, would barely see the floor, if at all
     
  32. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    27,838
    Yeah, I apologize. I thought he was referencing Marc. Pau never crossed my mind because if George Hill is washed, Pau is basically a corpse who keeps getting them checks.
     
  33. lovegtm

    lovegtm Member SoSH Member

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    3,769
    Is that bizarre Spurs contract of his still going?
     
  34. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

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    27,838
    He got bought out for $22.7mm (this year's contract plus a partial guarantee of $6.7mm for next year) but gave the Spurs $2.5mm back. He then signed with the Bucks for $527+ thousand. Not bad work for a guy who likely has already played his last games in the NBA
     
  35. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

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    6,068
    Don't worry, we'll keep the lights on for you:)

    We were never close to being healthy in any game, especially that Game 2 ("large early lead"? Celtics up 10-1 in the first 2:44 minutes means next to nothing).

    Milwaukee was at full strength every game, let's see them w/a hobbled Brogdon.
     
  36. JohnnyTheBone

    JohnnyTheBone Member SoSH Member

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    14,765
    We should have this thread by now.

    Some good history in this series (Celtics win last year); some bad (Bucks sweep in 1983 that led to Bill Fitch getting sh!tcanned).

    I will be watching cautiously, having been burned multiple times by this frustrating Celtics group, thinking they had turned the corner, and finding out they had...not.

    Bottom line is, if they can't beat Milwaukee without home court advantage, they weren't winning a title. Hopefully Brad has a playoff rotation ready to go, and the C's send a message in round two.
     
    #36 JohnnyTheBone, Apr 22, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019
  37. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    16,222
    Not sure what you mean by MIL's "perimeter oriented game." Giannis lead the league with just shy of 8 restricted area buckets a game. And he shot something like 27% outside the restricted area. MIL also took 34 shots per game in the restricted area and made them at a 66% clip. They apparently became just the 2nd team to hit 56+% on 2P shots. https://www.reddit.com/r/MkeBucks/comments/bg8mfk/the_bucks_set_the_nba_record_for_2p_this_season/

    My initial reaction to the matchup is that BOS has to run Brook Lopez off the court. MIL doesn't swith on PnRs (at least they didn't) so the Cs big men are going to have to hit enough 3Ps to get MIL out of their drop coverage.

    Also, so long as Lopez is standing at the 3P line, I'm not guarding him with a big guy.

    This chess match will be fun. I expect game 6 to be played much differently than Game 1.
     
  38. Reardons Beard

    Reardons Beard Member SoSH Member

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    3,163
    Starts and ends with containing the Greek Freak.

    I believe Al has had good success in containing him, with success a relative term of course. I'd like to think between Al and Baynes with some help they can force outside shots versus close range, higher percentage.
     
  39. DrewDawg

    DrewDawg Dorito Dink SoSH Member

    Messages:
    33,360
    EDIT: Thanks
     
    #39 DrewDawg, Apr 22, 2019
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019
  40. RedOctober3829

    RedOctober3829 Member SoSH Member

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    37,747
    Pack the paint and make the Bucks hit jump shots. I'd start with Jaylen on Giannis.
     
  41. HomeRunBaker

    HomeRunBaker bet squelcher SoSH Member

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    17,498
    All 5 Bucks starters and every one of their bench players play face up from the perimeter. They were 2nd in the NBA in 3-pt attempts......everything they do is initiated on the perimeter. Even Giannis is most dangerous going downhill from 18-feet off the dribble and of course can dominate in the paint as well.
     
  42. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    16,222
    The single most interesting schematic theme to this series will be MIL's drop coverage on the PnR. That means if the other team is setting the screen, MIL's big - usually Lopez - is dropping down into the restricted area while the other defender trails the ball handler. The theory here is to (1) protect the rim and (2) force ordinarily worse shooting bigs into taking 3Ps. As such, MIL is really high in 3P attempts against and 3P makes against.

    This works well against teams like DET that don't have stretch 5s. We'll see how that fares against BOS. In their game. the only game when BOS was at full strength, BOS hit 40% if a ton of 3P and won.

    Here's a breakdown on the game in February that discusses the drop coverage (with video!): https://thebasketballplaybook.com/blog-posts/breakdown-milwaukee-bucks-vs-boston-celtics/.

    If Al and MaMo and GH are hitting 40+% from 3P at the end of the series, I would think BOS will be in the conference finals.
     
  43. benhogan

    benhogan Baynes Hogan SoSH Member

    Messages:
    6,068
    Yes pack the defensive paint

    Al Horford on Giannis

    Brown on Middleton

    Kyrie on Bledsoe

    Tatum on Sterling

    Baynes on Lopez
     
  44. Sprowl

    Sprowl Emile de Becque Dope

    Messages:
    31,009
    I have some even better history: Celtics beat Bucks in 1974 for all the marbles. It was the first Celtics' championship, and the last Oscar Robertson I can remember. The Celtics took game 7 by doubling-teaming Kareem, fronting him with Cowens and relying on Silas to root him out of his favorite positions. In an era where Kareem's post game was the deadliest weapon in sport, the Celtics found a way to neutralize the star by by giving Buck PF Cornell Warner a chance to make his name in history. Warner remains nearly anonymous to this day.

    Keeping the ball out of Giannis' hands would be a good start for the 2019 Celtics too.
     
  45. amarshal2

    amarshal2 Member SoSH Member

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    4,591
    Baynes would end up taking a lot of threes. As Jay King said on Twitter,I think you consider starting Hayward (or Morris) with this group.

    Some interesting tweets (click for threads/more)







     
  46. CoffeeNerdness

    CoffeeNerdness Member SoSH Member

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    3,425
    Here to ask an important question: Who are the TV announcers? Please don't say Hubie Brown. Please don't say Breen.
     
  47. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

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    16,222
    OK. To me, everything starts with Giannis and his attacks on the basket, whether it is the half court or transition. Giannis lead the league in 3P assists. If The Cs can build a wall in the restricted area, that will help them a lot.
     
  48. wade boggs chicken dinner

    wade boggs chicken dinner Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    16,222
  49. DeJesus Built My Hotrod

    DeJesus Built My Hotrod Well-Known Member Lifetime Member SoSH Member

    Messages:
    27,838
    Unless I am misunderstanding what HRB was saying in the other thread, Milwaukee isn't very efficient from deep. They were second in 3PA during the season but 15th in 3P%. Brogdon and Middleton are good outside shooters as is Snell in limited run. The rest of their cast includes Lopez who had uneven three point shooting and may have been a bit lucky/streaky from deep this season as well as role players. Ilyasova, Dellavedova and Brown are all decent but as anyone can recall, Ersan is a bit of a liability on defense (he looks half calcified on any given sequence).

    If the C's can slow Giannis a bit and contain Middleton on defense while Boston's bigs take advantage of the tendencies you've described, they have a decent shot. Interestingly (at least to me) the Celtics were seventh in 3PA and seventh in 3P%. Consistency!
     
  50. luckiestman

    luckiestman Son of the Harpy SoSH Member

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    11,168
    This team from Wisconsin is called Buck? I think I've heard of him.


    [​IMG]
     

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