To save folks a click, here's the only relevant line of this garbage link:
Thats where I am. I dont think that getting Stanton and re-signing CC gets the NYY past 160 wins.Totally, and let’s not forget that Pomeranz was the 10th best pitcher in the AL by fWAR last year (and a better ERA than every Yankee starter except Severino).
Plus, we’ve heard a lot about the end of the Yankees pen, but I think people are sleeping on the back of the Red Sox pen. The 7th/8th/9th crew of Kimbrel, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith, and Joe Kelly could be among the best in the league.
Obviously adding JDM’s bat would be good for the team, but I think a lot of the sports radio crowd is losing sight of how fundamentally good this team already is.
I would have guessed this came from ESPN. All click bait, no content. This article had absolutely nothing of substance.
The one catch with rolling with what they've got is there is nobody to platoon with Hanley to keep his option from vesting. I feel fairly certain that they don't want his option to vest. If they sign JDM, he plays DH and Hanley platoons at first with Two-bags, maybe gets some at-bats at DH if JDM plays a little left field. If they don't sign JDM, then Hanley is the full-time DH with nobody else to grab some of those at-bats. (Brentz is also a RHH, as is Sam Travis. Maybe, if he's hitting well, they could justify Swihart taking some of those ABs).I think he's prepared to go into the season with what he has except for the one loose end of Martinez. If he gets him, great, he's upgraded the DH spot with the best available option. If he doesn't, then he rolls on as is because nothing left on the market represents a significant enough upgrade of the roster to be worth the cost.
Hanley has played through injury the majority of his time here. Why would he suddenly ask to sit now that there's direct financial incentive for him to play?Hanley seems likely to be a problem if they go out and find a mediocre platoon partner to intentionally limit his at-bats from day one.
He can still hit when he's healthy, and he is nowhere near a lock to be available for 500 PAs even if they want that from him. I think you let him go out there and play to start the year, and take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option.
There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury, and if not, and he doesn't hit, you can find someone to platoon with him in July and still keep him short of 500 PAs.
I agree with all of this. Hanley is the full time DH for this team on Opening Day if they don't sign Martinez. He'll get every opportunity to prove he's healthy.Hanley seems likely to be a problem if they go out and find a mediocre platoon partner to intentionally limit his at-bats from day one.
He can still hit when he's healthy, and he is nowhere near a lock to be available for 500 PAs even if they want that from him. I think you let him go out there and play to start the year, and take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option.
There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury, and if not, and he doesn't hit, you can find someone to platoon with him in July and still keep him short of 500 PAs.
Maybe it really came from BORAS ?I would have guessed this came from ESPN. All click bait, no content. This article had absolutely nothing of substance.
Hanley has given the Red Sox 0.8, 3.2, and -0.1 oWAR* in his three years in Boston. A total of 3.9 oWAR for $66M. His slash lines were:Hanley seems likely to be a problem if they go out and find a mediocre platoon partner to intentionally limit his at-bats from day one.
He can still hit when he's healthy, and he is nowhere near a lock to be available for 500 PAs even if they want that from him. I think you let him go out there and play to start the year, and take the chance that he hits the hell out of the ball and ends up triggering the option.
There's a good chance he needs time off at some point due to injury, and if not, and he doesn't hit, you can find someone to platoon with him in July and still keep him short of 500 PAs.
This is where I am as well. If they don’t get JDM, then they’re really risking having all those trades backfire. It does not make a whole lot of sense to mortgage the farm and then leave the best producing field fallow. The early 2010s Tigers were great and all, but ...I guess I'd think that after trading four Top 20 prospects plus tiptoeing under the luxury tax last year that the team would go all in while they have Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Sale. If not, then holy shit what a weird set of decisions.
This is an aside, but I remember being stunned when the 2013 Red Sox came back to beat those 2013 Tigers, and every year that passes those Tigers seem even more impressive to me.This is where I am as well. If they don’t get JDM, then they’re really risking having all those trades backfire. It does not make a whole lot of sense to mortgage the farm and then leave the best producing field fallow. The early 2010s Tigers were great and all, but ...
Except their bullpen sucked. And defense was eh. And Leland’s pitching choices backfired repeatedly.This is an aside, but I remember being stunned when the 2013 Red Sox came back to beat those 2013 Tigers, and every year that passes those Tigers seem even more impressive to me.
Verlander/Scherzer as the 1 and 2 was wild, plus prime Fister, Anibal, and young Porcello. Miggy Cabrera repeating as MVP and nearly repeating the Triple Crown. That team’s Pythag had them winning 99 games — they were STACKED.
Yeah. Still, midway through Game 2 of that ALCS I wasn’t sure how many more times we were going to see their bullpen.Except their bullpen sucked. And defense was eh. And Leland’s pitching choices backfired repeatedly.
Thonburg - thoracic outlet syndrome ended up helping put Daniel Bard out of the league. this is a complete question markPlus, we’ve heard a lot about the end of the Yankees pen, but I think people are sleeping on the back of the Red Sox pen. The 7th/8th/9th crew of Kimbrel, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith, and Joe Kelly could be among the best in the league.
I'm expecting big numbers from Smith. Yes the turn around time on TJ surgery is much faster but that doesn't mean they are ready to pitch at a high level that quickly. He's going to have a full offseason and I'm expecting Smith of 2016Thonburg - thoracic outlet syndrome ended up helping put Daniel Bard out of the league. this is a complete question mark
Smith - looked OK out of TJ late last year, but again much uncertainty
Kelly - I've been burned too much to ever trust Joe
wow has it been that long? I need to stop drinking so much... point still stands thoughYou mean 2015. He has pitched exactly 9.1 innings in the last two years. I'm not too hopeful about him and Thornburg either.
Hey, is it correct if the Red Sox release Hanley during the 2018 season that his option automatically vests for 2019?
That is not correct. If we cut him we only have to pay this year's salaryYou mean 2015. He has pitched exactly 9.1 innings in the last two years. I'm not too hopeful about him and Thornburg either.
Hey, is it correct if the Red Sox release Hanley during the 2018 season that his option automatically vests for 2019?
Apologies for going off topic, but grouping Smith and Thornburg like this is ridiculous.You mean 2015. He has pitched exactly 9.1 innings in the last two years. I'm not too hopeful about him and Thornburg either.
This feels more likely by the day. The narrative has been that JDM is waiting for the Sox to up their offer closer to his original ask of $210M. But he could just be waiting for Arizona to get their offer up to a number comparable enough to the Sox’s offer that it doesn’t rupture the market.I've felt all along that JD's preference is to stay with AZ (was comfortable and well-liked there, played well, gets to play the OF), so he will sign there if the offer is competitive. I think it's roughly 50/50 on which place he signs at this point.
Smith - Some uncertainty, but I wouldn’t say “much” — as you say he looked good and had a normal offseason.Thonburg - thoracic outlet syndrome ended up helping put Daniel Bard out of the league. this is a complete question mark
Smith - looked OK out of TJ late last year, but again much uncertainty
Kelly - I've been burned too much to ever trust Joe
It's not about "winning" the negotiation, though. Given how close they will be to the secondary luxury tax cap (and more severe penalties) if they sign him, the difference of a couple million bucks per year could actually cost them a lot more than that. They've got to leave themselves some wiggle room to add to the roster mid-season and a couple million dollars could be huge for that.Groundhog day:
According to major league sources, the Red Sox’ current five-year offer remains in the vicinity of $100 million — closer to that mark than the $125 million figure that has been reported.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/13/stagnant-market-represents-huge-opportunity-for-red-sox/qk2tEt1rPUHpNBV5rXvuQP/story.html
I get not bidding against themselves, but at this point, after all the trades of prospects to open a "go for it now" window, are the Red Sox really going to jeopardize this window over a couple of million bucks per year? For the sake of "winning" a negotiation? That seems ridiculous in my opinion. Just up your offer to 5/$120 or change the structure to front load the contract for the guys ego and get it done.
Doesn't it depend on what Boras is doing on the other side? If the Sox offered 5/$100 and Boras countered with 7/$200, then what's the point of increasing a couple million per year? That really is the definition of bidding against themselves.Groundhog day:
According to major league sources, the Red Sox’ current five-year offer remains in the vicinity of $100 million — closer to that mark than the $125 million figure that has been reported.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/13/stagnant-market-represents-huge-opportunity-for-red-sox/qk2tEt1rPUHpNBV5rXvuQP/story.html
I get not bidding against themselves, but at this point, after all the trades of prospects to open a "go for it now" window, are the Red Sox really going to jeopardize this window over a couple of million bucks per year? For the sake of "winning" a negotiation? That seems ridiculous in my opinion. Just up your offer to 5/$120 or change the structure to front load the contract for the guys ego and get it done.
If those millions are that important to getting under the 2018 secondary tax, then why not explore trading someone on a high-AAV short-deal for a player of the same value stretched over multiple years?It's not about "winning" the negotiation, though. Given how close they will be to the secondary luxury tax cap (and more severe penalties) if they sign him, the difference of a couple million bucks per year could actually cost them a lot more than that. They've got to leave themselves some wiggle room to add to the roster mid-season and a couple million dollars could be huge for that.
Not getting Martinez does not "jeopardize the window" one bit, assuming that there really is a "window" at all. There are alternatives, including standing pat with the roster as is. A roster that was good enough to win the division last year despite down seasons from most of the lineup.
$80m. And a puppy. A really fluffy puppy.If Boston is ONLY offering $100m... what could Arizona have offered?
5/$100m on the table at this point is basically stating that we were never really serious about "winning" this negotiation with Boras in the first place. Which all things considered ultimately adds up and makes more overall sense imo then some notion that DD really wanted JDM and then went on to play the hand here that he did. Big assist to the media for basically writing in most of the 'they did try" narrative for us though.Groundhog day:
According to major league sources, the Red Sox’ current five-year offer remains in the vicinity of $100 million — closer to that mark than the $125 million figure that has been reported.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/02/13/stagnant-market-represents-huge-opportunity-for-red-sox/qk2tEt1rPUHpNBV5rXvuQP/story.html
I get not bidding against themselves, but at this point, after all the trades of prospects to open a "go for it now" window, are the Red Sox really going to jeopardize this window over a couple of million bucks per year? For the sake of "winning" a negotiation? That seems ridiculous in my opinion. Just up your offer to 5/$120 or change the structure to front load the contract for the guys ego and get it done.
Well, if the Brinks truck transporting it crashes into another moving vehicle it is. [emoji6]its amazing to me that 100 million dollars could ever be considered evidence of collision.
If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).5/$100m on the table at this point is basically stating that we were never really serious about "winning" this negotiation with Boras in the first place. Which all things considered ultimately adds up and makes more overall sense imo then some notion that DD really wanted JDM and then went on to play the hand here that he did. Big assist to the media for basically writing in most of the 'they did try" narrative for us though.
While I never ideally wanted JDM, I'm strongly guessing Arizona now swoops in and grabs him on a fairly decent "deal' for them. Since I still can't see Boras actually following through with the sit out threat.
If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).
I've never really been on the Martinez bandwagon either, but until someone actually outbids the Red Sox, I refuse to buy into the notion that Dombrowski is uninterested in signing him or that he intentionally made a low bid so as to not be competitive.
Yes, to all of this. They have the highest bid on the table. That's neither low ball nor non-serious.If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).
I've never really been on the Martinez bandwagon either, but until someone actually outbids the Red Sox, I refuse to buy into the notion that Dombrowski is uninterested in signing him or that he intentionally made a low bid so as to not be competitive.
For the record I don't think DD would be in the driver's seat of any "we tried" narrative. Passenger going along with the ride maybe. But again, the media has basically spent the winter doing just fine writing in that narrative for us.If the offer on the table truly is 5/$100M and no one has matched it in two months, is it really a low ball offer that was never a serious bid? What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who needs to appease fans/media with a "we tried" narrative to cover for simply not wanting a player? Dombrowski's always struck me as decisive and if he didn't really want Martinez at all, he'd never have made an offer in the first place (like last winter with Encarnacion).
I've never really been on the Martinez bandwagon either, but until someone actually outbids the Red Sox, I refuse to buy into the notion that Dombrowski is uninterested in signing him or that he intentionally made a low bid so as to not be competitive.
How is this DD not "being serious"? He has the highest offer on the table. Boras is pissed because he looks like an asshole, "JD, we're going to get $300M EASY." and so he's spinning everything to make it look like the Red Sox and the D'Backs are the ones that are crazy. Some reporters *cough*Nick Cafardo*cough* eat up everything that Boras gives them and regurgitate it.5/$100m on the table at this point is basically stating that we were never really serious about "winning" this negotiation with Boras in the first place. Which all things considered ultimately adds up and makes more overall sense imo then some notion that DD really wanted JDM and then went on to play the hand here that he did. Big assist to the media for basically writing in most of the 'they did try" narrative for us though.
While I never ideally wanted JDM, I'm strongly guessing Arizona now swoops in and grabs him on a fairly decent "deal' for them. Since I still can't see Boras actually following through with the sit out threat.
Considering that all reports have been that Boras/Martinez began the winter looking to break the bank with a long term deal (similar to Boras/Hosmer turning their nose up at reported 6 and 7 year offers), I have to think that until very very recently, the notion of shorting the offer to raise the AAV was a non-starter on both sides. And the only thing that's changed is that there are now reports from Boras mouthpieces like Heyman that other teams are getting "creative" with the suggestion being that "creative" = shorter terms, bigger AAV.For the record I don't think DD would be in the driver's seat of any "we tried" narrative. Passenger going along with the ride maybe. But again, the media has basically spent the winter doing just fine writing in that narrative for us.
Like I've been pointing out all winter the little details going in to this don't add up for me as well. Overpaying and committing that roster spot to Moreland as early as we did. The presented notion that we would turn around and release Hanley on the eve of ST, or not leaving yourself more time/opportunity to shop Bradley if that was the the after-play. The fact DD of all GMs would make an offer on a guy he really wanted and then sit on it all winter while negotiating with Boras (who would most certainly lay his client an the sacrificial table himself before ever advising them to put that type of absolute smear on his resume), and never say...at least get more aggressive on the per/year side long before now. Even if it meant shorting the offered years to end up at the same total money, since we were going to end up over the cap the next 2 years regardless with him and the flexibility going towards a 2nd tier LT would still be there. You can picture yourself liking JDM at $20/per over 5, but see him as a deal breaker at $25m/per over 4?
The same question applies here in reverse. What in Dombrowski's history, here and elsewhere, leads you to believe he is the kind of GM who plays a hand like this?
And for all of these reasons, I have gained respect for and confidence in DD as the Red Sox GM. He has played this perfectly, whether or not JDM signs with the Sox.Considering that all reports have been that Boras/Martinez began the winter looking to break the bank with a long term deal (similar to Boras/Hosmer turning their nose up at reported 6 and 7 year offers), I have to think that until very very recently, the notion of shorting the offer to raise the AAV was a non-starter on both sides. And the only thing that's changed is that there are now reports from Boras mouthpieces like Heyman that other teams are getting "creative" with the suggestion being that "creative" = shorter terms, bigger AAV.
As for Dombrowski's history, he strikes me as a guy who tends to read markets extremely well. He's no nonsense and doesn't try to get cute, but he doesn't get rolled either. We have no reason to think that Dombrowski wouldn't be very aggressive in pursuing Martinez, including significantly increasing his offer from the rumored 5/100, if there was a real need to be. Let's not confuse his usual aggressiveness with impatience. He was aggressive with Price two years ago because he had to be. There were other teams in active pursuit (remember that Price believed bidding was over and he was going to St. Louis until Dombrowski came over the top with his last offer). All evidence we have shows that is very much not the case with Martinez.
Dombrowski, evidently correctly, assessed Martinez's market value as way below what Boras was asking and banked on Boras scaring off some potential suitors. He's sitting on an offer that hasn't been matched because he's not in a position where he has to do anything else. He doesn't have to sweet talk Boras or overpay (either be adding years or adding AAV) to get the deal done because he doesn't desperately need to sign Martinez. He's in a position where he wants Martinez at the right price but is perfectly comfortable going into 2018 without him.
You truly have pointed this out now close to twenty times. I asked your ideal alternative last week, and you said LoMo, Duda, Adam Lind or Mike Moustakas.Like I've been pointing out all winter the little details going in to this don't add up for me as well. Overpaying and committing that roster spot to Moreland as early as we did.
And although some here don't like the signing, I think that is exactly why DD signed Moreland. Without Moreland or another ~league average first baseman, the RS would be much more desperate to sign JDM, since they would be left with only HRam/Swihart/Travis to fill DH/1B. In effect Moreland (and yes it could have been another similar 1B) probably saves them his complete salary in minimizing the pressure to sign JDM no matter what the price.Dombrowski, evidently correctly, assessed Martinez's market value as way below what Boras was asking and banked on Boras scaring off some potential suitors. He's sitting on an offer that hasn't been matched because he's not in a position where he has to do anything else. He doesn't have to sweet talk Boras or overpay (either be adding years or adding AAV) to get the deal done because he doesn't desperately need to sign Martinez. He's in a position where he wants Martinez at the right price but is perfectly comfortable going into 2018 without him.
The numbers say otherwise. He's a league-average defensive 1B. I think his offensive dip last year is concerning, but if he can bounce back from that, he's a better player than Moreland. (Not that that's really relevant to anything at this point.)Duda is somewhat interesting, but he’s a bad defensive player who hit .175 with a .285 OBP for the Rays last year.