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I don't see the Dbacks topping the Sox offer. Then again if Martinez is intent on spiting the Sox for some reason then maybe he agrees to a lesser contract to go to Arizona.
Right, if he's intent on spiting the Sox.

Or if he just really likes playing in Arizona and doesn't think the extra money is enough to entice him to move. Not everything is some evil conspiracy.
 
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soxhop411

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That's a bold statement
I honestly think Boras planted that 200Mil seed so far into JDM head that he sees anything not that as an insult... And if he was going to get 200Mil it
A: would have happened by now
B: Would require ARZ to have an offer close to the sox current offer (which would then cause BOS to up their offer)
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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I honestly think Boras planted that 200Mil seed so far into JDM head that he sees anything not that as an insult... And if he was going to get 200Mil it
A: would have happened by now
B: Would require ARZ to have an offer close to the sox current offer (which would then cause BOS to up their offer)
He's not going to get anything close to $200 million, even if Arizona matches Boston's current offer.
 

koufax32

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I don't see the Dbacks topping the Sox offer. Then again if Martinez is intent on spiting the Sox for some reason then maybe he agrees to a lesser contract to go to Arizona.
I don’t think that would happen out of spite. They’re a good team that play in a hitter’s park. He was already wildly successful there. If he could get a lesser contract with a 1-2 year opt out that might be as good as a 5 year with Boston. He gets another year or two of mashing then tries FA again in a non-correction “collusion” year.
 

BaseballJones

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So where are we, SOSH, on JDM? I'm leaning towards it simply not happening with Boston, and that the Sox are planning on rolling with what they have.
 

chawson

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So where are we, SOSH, on JDM? I'm leaning towards it simply not happening with Boston, and that the Sox are planning on rolling with what they have.
It would seem really bold to roll with what they have at this point. After X’s comments last April about how the team “misses Papi,“ plus DD‘s statements about not “providing the team with enough offense” after the playoffs last year, it would give the press a ton of ammo and may give the impression to players that ownership doesn’t care.
 

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I honestly think Boras planted that 200Mil seed so far into JDM head that he sees anything not that as an insult...
Seriously? JDM has been an All Star once, in 2015, his only full season. In no other year did he manage 500 at bats (460 was his next highest total). He’ll turn 31 this season. He’s a poor base runner, a mediocre fielder. Even coming off a career year, he’s never finished top 10 in MVP voting let alone won one. Even conceding that most players are confident in themselves, JDM has to realize that he’s not Mike Trout, if he has an ounce of self awareness. He’s not as good as Goldschmidt, the guy AZ actually needs to save its pennies to spend on.

JDM’s an excellent hitter but not a great player. That’s not a guy who gets paid top 5 money in baseball. Boras knows that.

I don’t know how much negotiating you do, but you don’t convince your client that he’s worth top of the market money unless you’re pretty sure he is and that others can objectively see that. Otherwise, you’re setting him up for disappointment, which he’ll blame on you. And if Boras DID think JDM should get $200M, then he’d have floated $250M as a way of setting the negotiating parameters. Mentioning $210M likely meant they were shooting for $175-180M, but Boras would have had JDM expecting even less - say, $150M. That way, if/when they get $160-170M, JDM is happy and thinks Boras did a great job.

The big problem is not that they aren’t getting $200M offers, it’s that the market overall is topping out lower than most people expected (and/or realizing the agents’ worst fears, as there’s some evidence that they recognized the MLBPA negotiated a bad deal and they saw this correction coming.)
 
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mauf

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It would seem really bold to roll with what they have at this point. After X’s comments last April about how the team “misses Papi,“ plus DD‘s statements about not “providing the team with enough offense” after the playoffs last year, it would give the press a ton of ammo and may give the impression to players that ownership doesn’t care.
Several of the team’s key players (Sale, Betts, Bogaerts, Kimbrel) will be looking to get paid in the next couple of years. Money that goes to JDM or another marquee free agent is money that can’t go to any of them. They’ll be fine if DD stands pat.
 

CurtieLeskanic

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So where are we, SOSH, on JDM? I'm leaning towards it simply not happening with Boston, and that the Sox are planning on rolling with what they have.
I think JD is an important piece we would do well to add, but as it continues to look murky, I'm fine with a Logan Morrison type to hit for power and focus on retaining the big pieces we have on the team right now.

This team was fully built out in April last year and I don't know if that's always the best way to go about it. We'll be in the running, barring any disaster, in June & July and be able to make moves accordingly (albeit without as much trading ammo)
 

mr_smith02

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So where are we, SOSH, on JDM? I'm leaning towards it simply not happening with Boston, and that the Sox are planning on rolling with what they have.
The longer this JDM saga is drawn out it is difficult not to imagine this turning into a Carl Crawford type signing, especially if JDM were to sign and then struggle.
 

nvalvo

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[snip]
For what it's worth, in terms of addressing 3B back when Sandoval was signed, trading for Donaldson was the correct answer.
I mean, sure. But Donaldson only became available after Sandoval was signed because he called his GM "Billy Boy" in an argument. I'm going to give Cherington a pass if he didn't see that one coming.

edited to anticipate responses: Before that trade, the A's were coming off 88 wins, a WC game loss, and their third consecutive postseason appearance. It would be kind of like approaching the Red Sox now in trade talks about Betts.

(The whole incident makes Beane look terrible, FWIW.)
 
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chawson

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Several of the team’s key players (Sale, Betts, Bogaerts, Kimbrel) will be looking to get paid in the next couple of years. Money that goes to JDM or another marquee free agent is money that can’t go to any of them. They’ll be fine if DD stands pat.
I don’t follow this. They’ll be paid anyway through the arb process, and would stand to make the same money through us or another team as FA.

If that’s their motivator, you could equally argue they’d want a Sox team that could go deep in the playoffs because that’d help their free agency valuation too.
 

soxeast

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I think JD is an important piece we would do well to add, but as it continues to look murky, I'm fine with a Logan Morrison type to hit for power and focus on retaining the big pieces we have on the team right now.

This team was fully built out in April last year and I don't know if that's always the best way to go about it. We'll be in the running, barring any disaster, in June & July and be able to make moves accordingly (albeit without as much trading ammo)
Please -- no Logan Morrison. You might as well go with Sam Travis and try to pick up something better during the season. Logan is awful vs good pitching late in games. .
 

soxeast

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It would seem really bold to roll with what they have at this point. After X’s comments last April about how the team “misses Papi,“ plus DD‘s statements about not “providing the team with enough offense” after the playoffs last year, it would give the press a ton of ammo and may give the impression to players that ownership doesn’t care.
Ownership doesn't care but they are spending near the tops of all of baseball? I live in CT. You should hear what the Mets fans and media have to say about their owner.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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The longer this JDM saga is drawn out it is difficult not to imagine this turning into a Carl Crawford type signing, especially if JDM were to sign and then struggle.
The Carl Crawford saga existed entirely because he got hurt and didn't perform. It had nothing to do with the courtship itself. The only thing that matters as far as fans will be concerned is whether Martinez performs. That's it. There are no other factors that will make the slightest bit of difference.

Several of the team’s key players (Sale, Betts, Bogaerts, Kimbrel) will be looking to get paid in the next couple of years. Money that goes to JDM or another marquee free agent is money that can’t go to any of them. They’ll be fine if DD stands pat.
I don't think they'll be fine if Dombrowski stands pat. Of course, I don't think he'll stand pat. If they don't sign Martinez, he'll trade for someone. Maybe not until the deadline, but he absolutely has to upgrade the lineup. Even if they get bounce back seasons from a bunch of players who struggled in 2017, they simply don't have the middle of the order threat they need to compete against the best teams in the league (ie... the playoffs). I don't like the idea of them relying on getting hot at the right time to try and win it all while they still have control of Sale and Pomeranz. And I don't think Dombrowski does either.

Martinez isn't the only possible fix, but he's the one they have right in front of them and he's exactly what they need. So I'm guessing this will get done and he'll be the opening day DH. And if he's anything like what he has been the last 4 years, he'll be an extremely popular player.
 

mr_smith02

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The Carl Crawford saga existed entirely because he got hurt and didn't perform. It had nothing to do with the courtship itself. The only thing that matters as far as fans will be concerned is whether Martinez performs. That's it. There are no other factors that will make the slightest bit of difference.
That was the point I was trying to make when I said "especially if he were to sign and then struggle". I do think this uniquely long courtship, including reports of JDM being frustrated with Boston's offers, followed by any type of "slow" start would lead to a very negative tenure in a Red Sox uniform (whether there are injuries involved or not). You are absolutely right though, if he comes in and solves Boston's offensive concerns then this abnormally long courtship process will be forgotten.
 

soxeast

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The Carl Crawford saga existed entirely because he got hurt and didn't perform. It had nothing to do with the courtship itself. The only thing that matters as far as fans will be concerned is whether Martinez performs. That's it. There are no other factors that will make the slightest bit of difference.



I don't think they'll be fine if Dombrowski stands pat. Of course, I don't think he'll stand pat. If they don't sign Martinez, he'll trade for someone. Maybe not until the deadline, but he absolutely has to upgrade the lineup. Even if they get bounce back seasons from a bunch of players who struggled in 2017, they simply don't have the middle of the order threat they need to compete against the best teams in the league (ie... the playoffs). I don't like the idea of them relying on getting hot at the right time to try and win it all while they still have control of Sale and Pomeranz. And I don't think Dombrowski does either.
You don't need a middle of the order threat if your pitching is terrific. As you mention Sale and Pomeranz. They can be terrific. Get another quality bat or two with one more reliever for the 8th inning -- you can win it all. If your lineup has 7 guys capable of hitting on average between 20-25 home runs - and the others - you'd get about 200 home runs. About 17/18. That's about what Cleveland was in 2016.

But definitely would like to see them with a big middle of the order bat.
 

johnnywayback

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I think people are missing just how good JD Martinez is, and how specifically his talents match up with our needs. Since he retooled his swing in 2014, his worst month at the plate by wRC+ was 1% below league average. Last year, he was the best power hitter in baseball. Obviously, there is no such thing as a guarantee that a player won't fall off a cliff, and he is on the wrong side of the aging curve -- but he has been remarkably consistent for the last three years, and he's entering his age-30 season, so it's unlikely a five- or even six-year deal will include too much deadweight.

He hasn't signed because he hasn't gotten the kind of offer he wants. But if he was going to get that offer, he would have gotten it by now. He's worth more to us than he is to Arizona because his worst attribute -- his defense -- is the one we need the least. There's no reason for us to get outbid. I suggest patience and optimism.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He hasn't signed because he hasn't gotten the kind of offer he wants. But if he was going to get that offer, he would have gotten it by now. He's worth more to us than he is to Arizona because his worst attribute -- his defense -- is the one we need the least. There's no reason for us to get outbid. I suggest patience and optimism.
I agree with this. At this point, I don't expect the Red Sox will be outbid. I mean, it's not like his skills have gotten better in the last two months, and no team has suddenly found a need for him and the available money to pay him in the last two months. His market is what it is. The Red Sox have the highest offer on the table. Of that, I am supremely optimistic.

What I'm less optimistic about is whether or not Martinez will chase that money. Reports may be that he's pouting because his offers aren't quite the embarrassment of riches Boras promised, but more and more I suspect he's holding out because he prefers to go somewhere other than Boston and is waiting for that team to step up and at least make a competitive offer. And when they break down and do it, he's signing there even if it means leaving money on the table.
 

Maximus

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I agree with this. At this point, I don't expect the Red Sox will be outbid. I mean, it's not like his skills have gotten better in the last two months, and no team has suddenly found a need for him and the available money to pay him in the last two months. His market is what it is. The Red Sox have the highest offer on the table. Of that, I am supremely optimistic.

What I'm less optimistic about is whether or not Martinez will chase that money. Reports may be that he's pouting because his offers aren't quite the embarrassment of riches Boras promised, but more and more I suspect he's holding out because he prefers to go somewhere other than Boston and is waiting for that team to step up and at least make a competitive offer. And when they break down and do it, he's signing there even if it means leaving money on the table.
This. Rosenthal also thinks he is not signing here. I hope DD has a good plan B in place.
 

BaseballJones

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This. Rosenthal also thinks he is not signing here. I hope DD has a good plan B in place.
Isn't it a little late for plan B? I ask that a bit facetiously because we're almost at the start of spring training. But there are still players on the market:

- Hosmer
- Moustakas
- Morrison
- C Gonzalez
- Nunez
- Duda

I'm not saying they should go after any of these guys. But I'm saying there are players available.
 

MikeM

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I can see them bringing Nunez back if JDM doesn't happen.
I was initially against this possibility due to the belief that Nunez would clearly land a more secure starting job somewhere else. But now and in this eliminating the stupid market? I can totally see it as the most likely Alternative B scenario here.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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So where are we, SOSH, on JDM? I'm leaning towards it simply not happening with Boston, and that the Sox are planning on rolling with what they have.
Eh. I still think DDski signing JDM is more likely than not, but the stare-down will probably last into the first week of ST.

Still, if JDM prefers not to play in Boston, there’s no forcing the situation. Sure it would stink for the Yankees to add Stanton in the same offseason the Sox lose out on JDM, but Stanton apparently wasn’t keen in playing in Boston, either.

And of course, they don’t hand out trophies for winning the offseason.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Isn't it a little late for plan B? I ask that a bit facetiously because we're almost at the start of spring training. But there are still players on the market:

- Hosmer
- Moustakas
- Morrison
- C Gonzalez
- Nunez
- Duda

I'm not saying they should go after any of these guys. But I'm saying there are players available.
Clearly with the way the market has unfolded, it isn't too late for plan B. However, I think given the way Dombrowski has operated pretty much since the moment he was hired, I don't see much likelihood that there is a plan B. By which I mean he is typically decisive and makes his move as quickly as possible. He doesn't wait around unless he has reason to do so.

I think he's prepared to go into the season with what he has except for the one loose end of Martinez. If he gets him, great, he's upgraded the DH spot with the best available option. If he doesn't, then he rolls on as is because nothing left on the market represents a significant enough upgrade of the roster to be worth the cost.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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...What I'm less optimistic about is whether or not Martinez will chase that money. Reports may be that he's pouting because his offers aren't quite the embarrassment of riches Boras promised, but more and more I suspect he's holding out because he prefers to go somewhere other than Boston and is waiting for that team to step up and at least make a competitive offer. And when they break down and do it, he's signing there even if it means leaving money on the table.
Yes, I'm beginning to worry about something similar. Maybe Boras convinces AZ to sign JDM to basically a one or two-year deal for a high dollar amount with a bunch of deferred money. JDM plays where he wants, for an annual number that looks good, and he can hope to sign another deal in 2 years. It's not the most prudent financial move, but it could happen.
 

chawson

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Isn't it a little late for plan B? I ask that a bit facetiously because we're almost at the start of spring training. But there are still players on the market:

- Hosmer
- Moustakas
- Morrison
- C Gonzalez
- Nunez
- Duda

I'm not saying they should go after any of these guys. But I'm saying there are players available.
Gotta think Plan B is a trade, and wouldn’t preclude a Nunez signing.
 

grimshaw

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If Nunez is signed for Howie Kendrick money (2 years 7.5), then sure sign him. I think he's more valuable than spending that money on a LOOGY

But I don't think he is plan B in terms of upgrading the offense. He really isn't a great hitter. That was very likely a ridiculous hot stretch that won't happen again.

I agree with Chawson as well that plan B is a trade. I'm guessing they wanted to just spend the money instead of using chips, but will have to move on at some point.

Tom Werner is on record as saying they would make a move, so something is going to happen eventually.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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If Nunez is signed for Howie Kendrick money (2 years 7.5), then sure sign him. I think he's more valuable than spending that money on a LOOGY

But I don't think he is plan B in terms of upgrading the offense. He really isn't a great hitter. That was very likely a ridiculous hot stretch that own't happen again.
Yeah, he's a league average bat who can cover a bunch of positions. Or what Brock Holt used to be.
 

Max Power

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I think people are missing just how good JD Martinez is, and how specifically his talents match up with our needs. Since he retooled his swing in 2014, his worst month at the plate by wRC+ was 1% below league average. Last year, he was the best power hitter in baseball. Obviously, there is no such thing as a guarantee that a player won't fall off a cliff, and he is on the wrong side of the aging curve -- but he has been remarkably consistent for the last three years, and he's entering his age-30 season, so it's unlikely a five- or even six-year deal will include too much deadweight.
He's as good as Edwin Encarnacion, three years younger, but less healthy. Edwin signed for $60 million over three years just last winter when nobody was crying about collusion. A five year $110 million deal is probably on the high side of what Martinez is worth, but half as much as he thinks he should get.
 

MikeM

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If Nunez is signed for Howie Kendrick money (2 years 7.5), then sure sign him. I think he's more valuable than spending that money on a LOOGY

But I don't think he is plan B in terms of upgrading the offense. He really isn't a great hitter. That was very likely a ridiculous hot stretch that won't happen again.

I agree with Chawson as well that plan B is a trade. I'm guessing they wanted to just spend the money instead of using chips, but will have to move on at some point.

Tom Werner is on record as saying they would make a move, so something is going to happen eventually.
Speaking for myself, I was referring to Nunez as Alternative B here more in the sense that we might then be less likely to roll the dice on the Marco Hernandez as a full time starter front.

Plus if Nunez is signed cheap enough you still preserve a reasonably visible get back under the LT plan if things go south in 2018.
 

chawson

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He's as good as Edwin Encarnacion, three years younger, but less healthy. Edwin signed for $60 million over three years just last winter when nobody was crying about collusion. A five year $110 million deal is probably on the high side of what Martinez is worth, but half as much as he thinks he should get.
Small quibble. JDM is nearly five years younger than Encarnacion.

Speaking for myself, I was referring to Nunez as Alternative B here more in the sense that we might then be less likely to roll the dice on the Marco Hernandez as a full time starter front.

Plus if Nunez is signed cheap enough you still preserve a reasonably visible get back under the LT plan if things go south in 2018.
I don't know, things would have to get mighty deep south by July for the Sox to hoist the white flag to the Rays/Twins/Mariners/Jays for a Wild Card seat. Anything can happen of course, but the Yankees, Indians, and Astros are as good as in. Likely the Angels too.
 

chawson

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Three and change at the time of signing. Even less if Martinez holds out until the All Star Break.
He's not holding out 'til the All Star Break and risk eroding his one baseball skill only to watch Cruz, Mauer, Donaldson, Machado, Smoak, Dozier, Harrison, McCutchen, Beltre, Headley, Adam Jones, and whomever else become available to an even smaller group of contending teams.

Wasn't clear that you meant at the time of signing, but we're on the same page. He's three years and four months younger than EE was when he signed. Still, age 30-34 seasons are worth a lot more than 34-36.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Is it either/or with Logan and JD? Couldn't they sign Logan now and then sign JD in June? I really doubt JD holds out that long, but if he does, why is it an either/or? I can't see Logan Morrison getting paid that much.

edit: Assuming Morrison only signs for 1 year, anyway. You can always cut bait if he sucks.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Is it either/or with Logan and JD? Couldn't they sign Logan now and then sign JD in June? I really doubt JD holds out that long, but if he does, why is it an either/or? I can't see Logan Morrison getting paid that much.

edit: Assuming Morrison only signs for 1 year, anyway. You can always cut bait if he sucks.
Logan Morrison doesn't have a spot on this team with or without Martinez. They already have 2 first baseman.
 

dynomite

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Ownership doesn't care but they are spending near the tops of all of baseball? I live in CT. You should hear what the Mets fans and media have to say about their owner.
I agree.

They’ve won 93 games and the AL East back-to-back years. They’ve got the #1 payroll in MLB, at just over $200 million. They’ve got a mix of young homegrown stars (Mookie, Devers, Benny, X) and veteran talent (Sale, Kimbrel, Price). PECOTA projects that they will win 87 games and the 1st Wild Card.

I’ve said it before in this thread, but I don’t think signing JDM is a necessity. They’re going to be a good team, and will be able to upgrade in June/July.
 

Maximus

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Isn't it a little late for plan B? I ask that a bit facetiously because we're almost at the start of spring training. But there are still players on the market:

- Hosmer
- Moustakas
- Morrison
- C Gonzalez
- Nunez
- Duda

I'm not saying they should go after any of these guys. But I'm saying there are players available.
For clarification, I think plan B for DD would be via a trade.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He’s played about a third of his career in LF. He could cover it just as well as JDM.
Morrison has only played about 100 innings total in the outfield since 2012, none since 2015. And he wasn't exactly a passable defensive outfielder then. Might as well argue that Hanley could cover LF if necessary.
 

BaseballJones

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I agree.

They’ve won 93 games and the AL East back-to-back years. They’ve got the #1 payroll in MLB, at just over $200 million. They’ve got a mix of young homegrown stars (Mookie, Devers, Benny, X) and veteran talent (Sale, Kimbrel, Price). PECOTA projects that they will win 87 games and the 1st Wild Card.

I’ve said it before in this thread, but I don’t think signing JDM is a necessity. They’re going to be a good team, and will be able to upgrade in June/July.
You'd like to think that a team with Sale and Price and Kimbrel and even Porcello (another former CYA winner) would stand a pretty respectable chance at advancing in the playoffs even against a NY Yankee team with all those sluggers. If only those guys pitched well in the playoffs....
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Morrison has only played about 100 innings total in the outfield since 2012, none since 2015. And he wasn't exactly a passable defensive outfielder then. Might as well argue that Hanley could cover LF if necessary.
With the exception of 2011, his dwar is pretty much the same as JDM and the same at 1B or LF. He was moved due to injury issues and then roster crunch when he went to SEA. Try not to misrepresent my point, which is that if one is comfortable putting JDM out there, there shouldn’t be reservations about LoMo. If the option is caving and giving JDM a monster contract or going short term on a reasonable deal for LoMo, I’d vote for the latter, but frankly I want nothing to do with paying JDM nine figures to DH and be a payroll suck for the next 5-6 years. People need to pump the brakes and have some patience.
 

sean1562

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At this point just wait until he inevitably caves. Him signing now vs signing in mid March isn’t worth increasing their offer
 

dynomite

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You'd like to think that a team with Sale and Price and Kimbrel and even Porcello (another former CYA winner) would stand a pretty respectable chance at advancing in the playoffs even against a NY Yankee team with all those sluggers. If only those guys pitched well in the playoffs....
Totally, and let’s not forget that Pomeranz was the 10th best pitcher in the AL by fWAR last year (and a better ERA than every Yankee starter except Severino).

Plus, we’ve heard a lot about the end of the Yankees pen, but I think people are sleeping on the back of the Red Sox pen. The 7th/8th/9th crew of Kimbrel, Tyler Thornburg, Carson Smith, and Joe Kelly could be among the best in the league.

Obviously adding JDM’s bat would be good for the team, but I think a lot of the sports radio crowd is losing sight of how fundamentally good this team already is.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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For me it’s either JDM or wait until July 31st to acquire a bat. It doesn’t make any sense for JDM to hold out. I still think he will sign a contract with the Red Sox in the next 30 days.
 

StuckOnYouk

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So if he signs here do we think that DD already has a trade all set up to make room for him? JBJ or Hanley?

I wonder if DD has also let a player or two know that if JDM falls through, he's got a contract offer for them ready to go immediately - most likely I'm thinking Nunez because of his versatility and his great performance while he was here last year..
 
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