2017-18 NBA Regular Season Game/Observation Thread
- Thread starter DeJesus Built My Hotrod
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Not successful at all if Lebron has to do this even once a week. But the team still has a lot of new parts and they should become better at finding their roles. But last night was an important game for the Cavs, so Lebron did everything he could to win it. And he's so good, he figuratively put the team on his back and won the game.
It was a pretty legendary regular season performance.
"Rumors of LeBron's demise" sounds like a bit of a strawman — he's still widely seen as the unquestioned best player in the world, and is coming off one of his best statistical seasons (offensively anyway) as well as an epic playoff and Finals performance (offensively anyway). It was pretty clear his elite playmaking, hoops IQ, finishing and ability to overpower people on the block would age well, and in recent years he's added an improved three ball to the mix, which should further extend his window of eliteness on the offensive end.
How many times did I stress "offensively" in that paragraph, though? I've been saying for a while that when the decline came it would happen first on the defensive end, and I think that decline is pretty clearly here. You can hear about it on any Cavs' blog, or just pull out recent anecdotes like Durant dropping 35 ppg on .700 true shooting on him in the Finals (fwiw, Gordon Hayward did a vastly better job on him defensively in the WC semi-finals). He's historically been a bit overrated as a full-time defender — by adjusted plus-minus measures he's nearly always top 2 or 3 in offense and closer to neutral defensively. But he's always been able to turn it up a notch or four defensively when he has needed to. I don't think he quite has that ability anymore. He can't hang with quick guards and wings on the perimeter the way he used to; and while he's less of a defensive liability defending PFs or protecting the rim from the weakside, I don't think he really has the size or inclination to be an elite, full-time interior defender.
Small samples, but as long were talking about the one-game sample of his legendary 57 point night...
Opponents this season with LeBron on the floor: 117.4 points per 100
Opponents this season with LeBron on the bench: 107.0 points per 100
Net: -10.4
I'm still fine considering LeBron the best player in the world, though I think it's probably safer to say he's in the top tier with Curry, Durant, Kawhi, and probably now Giannis.
For fun, per 36 minutes this season:
James: 27.8 pts on .681 true shooting / 7.3 reb / 8.3 ast / 4.1 tov / -8.8 pts per 100 on court / -3.4 pts net on-off
Curry: 29.7 pts on .690 true shooting / 5.3 reb / 6.7 ast / 2.8 tov / +21.7 pts per 100 on court / +25.6 pts net on-off
The Cavs are a 50-win team that would probably struggle to win 35 without LeBron; the Warriors are a 65-win team that would probably struggle to win 50 without Curry. Apples and oranges, but I think you can make a pretty simple plus-minus case for Curry as the top player in the league. Or a case for Kawhi and Durant, because of their better shooting and defensive impact (Kawhi cos he can lock down small players; KD in his newfound role as league's best shotblocker not named Gobert). Or a case for Giannis because he's such a complete all-around freak.
I see more of a gap between those five and the next tier down (Harden, Westbrook, Anthony Davis, maybe Draymond, anyone else?) than I do between LeBron and the other guys on his tier, but I may be in the minority in that assessment.
How many times did I stress "offensively" in that paragraph, though? I've been saying for a while that when the decline came it would happen first on the defensive end, and I think that decline is pretty clearly here. You can hear about it on any Cavs' blog, or just pull out recent anecdotes like Durant dropping 35 ppg on .700 true shooting on him in the Finals (fwiw, Gordon Hayward did a vastly better job on him defensively in the WC semi-finals). He's historically been a bit overrated as a full-time defender — by adjusted plus-minus measures he's nearly always top 2 or 3 in offense and closer to neutral defensively. But he's always been able to turn it up a notch or four defensively when he has needed to. I don't think he quite has that ability anymore. He can't hang with quick guards and wings on the perimeter the way he used to; and while he's less of a defensive liability defending PFs or protecting the rim from the weakside, I don't think he really has the size or inclination to be an elite, full-time interior defender.
Small samples, but as long were talking about the one-game sample of his legendary 57 point night...
Opponents this season with LeBron on the floor: 117.4 points per 100
Opponents this season with LeBron on the bench: 107.0 points per 100
Net: -10.4
I'm still fine considering LeBron the best player in the world, though I think it's probably safer to say he's in the top tier with Curry, Durant, Kawhi, and probably now Giannis.
For fun, per 36 minutes this season:
James: 27.8 pts on .681 true shooting / 7.3 reb / 8.3 ast / 4.1 tov / -8.8 pts per 100 on court / -3.4 pts net on-off
Curry: 29.7 pts on .690 true shooting / 5.3 reb / 6.7 ast / 2.8 tov / +21.7 pts per 100 on court / +25.6 pts net on-off
The Cavs are a 50-win team that would probably struggle to win 35 without LeBron; the Warriors are a 65-win team that would probably struggle to win 50 without Curry. Apples and oranges, but I think you can make a pretty simple plus-minus case for Curry as the top player in the league. Or a case for Kawhi and Durant, because of their better shooting and defensive impact (Kawhi cos he can lock down small players; KD in his newfound role as league's best shotblocker not named Gobert). Or a case for Giannis because he's such a complete all-around freak.
I see more of a gap between those five and the next tier down (Harden, Westbrook, Anthony Davis, maybe Draymond, anyone else?) than I do between LeBron and the other guys on his tier, but I may be in the minority in that assessment.
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In related news, I get the sense the media is now fully baiting Wall and Beal into spouting off arrogantly about how elite they are, but their recent chat with Rachel Nichols before the Cavs game was lame even by their standards: given a softball question about the Cavs in which I think most NBA players would have taken the opportunity to humbly praise LeBron's historic greatness by saying something like "he's been to the Finals seven freaking straight times, and he's still the Unquestioned King, but doggone it, we're gunning for his crown!" — Wall instead chose to turn the question around and talk about their own greatness, and how they need to stop playing down to all the lesser opponents who are so vastly inferior to them.
Confidence is great and all, but I find those two and their inflated egos pretty irritating.
Confidence is great and all, but I find those two and their inflated egos pretty irritating.
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There was talk in a thread about the Thunder allowing Westbrook to pad his stats last year...
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/how-okc-thunder-strategy-may-have-led-to-costly-kyrie-irving-5-point-play-for-celtics/
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/how-okc-thunder-strategy-may-have-led-to-costly-kyrie-irving-5-point-play-for-celtics/
I hear you, but isn't this upcoming draft supposed to be the best/deepest in recent memory? And of course, you have the opportunity cost of having to wait another year for that asset, whatever it might be. I know I'd rather just get a top 5 this season, and be done with it, than have to wait another year, and hope that another potentially improving team continues to suck (not saying I think the Kings won't continue to suck, because I think they will and regardless of where LA finishes this year, I think they'll have a better season than the Kings next year unless things change dramatically).
And FTR, I'm always, always going to root against the Lakers. Having their draft pick is just icing on the cake.
Still think it's very likely the Lakers are going to be terrible. They had a nice schedule to start the season, including 7 out of 10 games at home.
Their schedule through New Years is pretty brutal, save for a week long homestand in the middle of this month. Between Thanksgiving and Christmas they'll play Golden State and Houston three times each.
They're 4-5 now, I'd be surprised if they're better than 10-25 by New Years.
Wow. I had to look that up.
They also get the Clippers twice and the Cavs, in addition to an east coast road swing, all in that month or so.
On the road at BOS, WAS, and MIL next week.
To be clear, I was joking (and it clearly fell a bit flat) about LeBron's demise. SRN is right that his defense has slacked off but that happens with all players in their 30s. Its inescapable.
I also think the hand-wringing around the Cavs is a bit premature. Let's see where they are in late January before declaring them too old/not deep enough with scoring etc. The NBA season to-date is all small sample sizes.
That said, while LeBron may rub some people the wrong way, the guy has been about the best face-of-the-league player in a while. As HRB notes, he has had no run-ins with the law, no scandals (that we know of) off the court and generally comports himself as a classy, thoughtful guy in public.
I saw a quote on Twitter with a video of LeBron handing two young fans some of those bracelets he wears after a game that said something along the lines of "if you hate this guy, it says more about you than him". I think that's right. He is one of those guys you can root against but, at the same time, can also respect. Its really impressive in light of considering the guys who preceded him in terms of being the best player/face of the NBA.
I also think the hand-wringing around the Cavs is a bit premature. Let's see where they are in late January before declaring them too old/not deep enough with scoring etc. The NBA season to-date is all small sample sizes.
That said, while LeBron may rub some people the wrong way, the guy has been about the best face-of-the-league player in a while. As HRB notes, he has had no run-ins with the law, no scandals (that we know of) off the court and generally comports himself as a classy, thoughtful guy in public.
I saw a quote on Twitter with a video of LeBron handing two young fans some of those bracelets he wears after a game that said something along the lines of "if you hate this guy, it says more about you than him". I think that's right. He is one of those guys you can root against but, at the same time, can also respect. Its really impressive in light of considering the guys who preceded him in terms of being the best player/face of the NBA.
This class is top heavy --- there are 3-4 very, very elite prospects. One of them will fade but another currently in the 5-10 range will rise. But the depth, i.e. late lottery, teens and even into the early twenties, will not be as strong as the class we just witnessed.
It's too early to make any predictions whatsoever about the class after that. But, I do follow recruiting very closely so I'll take a stab and say that the class looks pretty damn weak. R.J. Barrett is a real prize, he just reclassified. Zion has played against no measurable competition and so he just dunks on 6'4 dudes all day long. Shittu looks to be very good. But, just as a "for example" if you combined the recruiting rankings of the next two classes, here is what I think you would get:
- Doncic (2018 draft)
- Marvin Bagley (2018 draft)
- Ayton (2018 draft)
- Michael Porter (2018 draft)
- R.J. Barrett (2019 draft)
- Wendell Carter (2018 draft)
- Bamba (2018 draft)
- Kevin Knox (2018 draft)
- Shittu (2019 draft)
- Cam Reddish (2019 draft)
Interesting. I don't follow prospects or rankings nearly as closely, but this is the first time that i've seen Doncic noted as being a clear cut #1. I thought his lack of superior athleticism (similar to Tatum in my mind?) would keep him from running away from the pack.
I think it is reasonably likely that one of Porter, Bagely, or Ayton passes him for whoever drafts number one. I think that is also quite likely to look like a major mistake 5 years from now.
Donecic has by far the highest floor. He'll be an instant contributor to whomever drafts him and will play in the NBA for years. But it's currently undetermined whether he is athletic enough to be a top tier NBA player.
Maybe...but this is also why some of these early season wins hurt so much. Brooklyn, for example, has played one of the softest schedules in the league, but only managed 3 wins. We'll know more by New Year's but the Lakers current ranking in SRS (0.56) seems to reflect reality and puts them on pace for 32-40 wins in the West.
GSW @ DEN through 3:
6 minutes without Curry: -15
30 minutes with Curry: +44
Warriors lead 103-76, despite getting outscored 20-3 in the first 7 minutes of the second quarter (i.e. the Curry off time).
6 minutes without Curry: -15
30 minutes with Curry: +44
Warriors lead 103-76, despite getting outscored 20-3 in the first 7 minutes of the second quarter (i.e. the Curry off time).
Brooklyn started last season 4-5. I'm not too worried about the Lakers' start. They definitely have a ten game losing streak in them. The standings right now are very weird. The end of season standings will look very different.
I'm pretty resigned to the Kings pick in 2019, but that's a bad team and I doubt even one of this year's studs improves the W-L record much next year. It also pushes the cap impact of another high lottery pick out another year if the Lakers pick doesn't convey, which should be enough to avoid the luxury tax for another year and may end up better in terms of spreading out when extensions are due. Plus they'd have 4 first rounders in 2019 (assuming the Clippers make the playoffs and Memphis is 9th or better) so any star that comes available they can offer an instant rebuild package.
Proper context. The minutes LeBron is on the bench is typically when opponents 2nd units are in the game with their top scorer(s) also on the bench. I'm guessing this stat would be similar with any starter who sits when opponents 2nd units are out there.
I’m sure that’s a factor, but it’s certainly not the case for all starters. For the sake of comparison:
GSW opponents with Durant on: 107.2 pts per 100
GSW opponents with Durant off: 118.9 (+11.7)
BOS opponents with Horford on: 95.5
BOS opponents with Horford off: 107.9 (+12.4)
Etc.
I mean, plus minus results from samples this small are pretty close to meaningless on their own — but LeBron’s results from this season confirm much larger recent samples of plus minus (even those adjusted for quality of opposition) as well as the eye test of most Cavs fans and observers.
As DeJesus says, it’s not breaking news that athletic wing players tend to start losing their fastball defensively in their early 30s. Same thing happened to Jordan, Kobe, Wade, now Iguodala (born the same year as LeBron, 11 months earlier), et al.
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Anyone think the Pistons are for real? It's not like their schedule has been a cake walk this year and they are 7-3.
Anyone been watching the Bucks at all? Why are they so terrible rebounding with all their length?
Anyone been watching the Bucks at all? Why are they so terrible rebounding with all their length?
If Drummond really is a 75% FT shooter then they're pretty comfortably in the 5/6 range in the East. Odds he keeps it up all year are remote, I buy he's improved but still think he's closer to ~55-60% by year end.
Brooklyn was actually half-decent last year when Lin was healthy.
I show the Lakers as being on-pace for 34 wins right now fwiw - a tier ahead of the Hawks, Bulls, Mavs, Suns and Kings.
The Cavs are down 25-11 with 4:52 left in the first to the Hawks at home. Schroder already has 6 assists and the Cavs have no answer inside.
As a team, 8 assists on 9 FGs, 9/11 shooting. Cleveland has 0 on 3-15 shooting.
edit: Wade decided to take the game over.
As a team, 8 assists on 9 FGs, 9/11 shooting. Cleveland has 0 on 3-15 shooting.
edit: Wade decided to take the game over.
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and at the half, its 54-45 Hawks. The Hawks should really be up by like 20+ right now if Taylor and Collins didn't miss all their easy layups and put backs.
edit: Clippers getting blown out at home, down 62-46 to the Heat. Spoke to soon on that, as it's 62-49. Hit a 3 at the buzzer.
Hawks up 76-64 with 5:10 left in the 3rd...
make that 80-64. 11-0 run. 11 points in 1:21. All 11 by Schroder and he's scored the Hawks last 13 points and has done so in less than 2 minutes.
edit: Clippers getting blown out at home, down 62-46 to the Heat. Spoke to soon on that, as it's 62-49. Hit a 3 at the buzzer.
Hawks up 76-64 with 5:10 left in the 3rd...
make that 80-64. 11-0 run. 11 points in 1:21. All 11 by Schroder and he's scored the Hawks last 13 points and has done so in less than 2 minutes.
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Where would you place Detroit if Drummond was still shooting 40%? The difference between him shooting 70% and 40% is around 1.0 to 1.5 points per game.
Absolutely, but it also means he can stay in the game at certain times, instead of replacing him if teams were employing "Hack an Andre".
Cavs down 91-78 after 3.
John Collins is a + 20 in 15 minutes. Crowder's been mostly invisible on the court.
The Cavs are not a very good team atm. Losing to the Hawks at home is pretty embarrassing if that ends up happening.
John Collins is a + 20 in 15 minutes. Crowder's been mostly invisible on the court.
The Cavs are not a very good team atm. Losing to the Hawks at home is pretty embarrassing if that ends up happening.
I’ve had this game on in the background while puttering around the house and I just cannot believe how bad the Cavs have looked on defense. Schroder and Taylor have absolutely carved them up on the perimeter and John Collins is just destroying them on the glass.
EDIT - And just like that Schroder just cut up Wade again.
DrewDawg hit the nail on the head, Drummond at 40% is unplayable late, requires a lot of offense-defense. At 60% he's contributing more offensively and can stay on the floor defensively close and late, that's a big boost in value. Coming into the season I had them fighting for a playoff spot, from there to 5/6 in the East isn't a huge leap given the state of the conference.
Cavs have cut it to 8 with 5 minutes left. Even if they come back to win this, it’s not been an impressive performance.
They don't seem for real to me at all. They fail the always-reliable eye test, for one thing, though maybe that's just because they start Reggie Jackson. But they're also just not particularly good at anything, and mostly average at everything. Offensive Rating is ninth, which is only borderline good -- and part of that is because Tobias Harris and Avery are shooting admirably but unsustainably well from deep -- and their Defensive Rating is 15th. The only thing that stands out from the stats is they're second in the league in forcing turnovers, but that's true of any team who's faced the Warriors because they play with a greased watermelon. If they end up top four in the East, they'll still get pasted in the playoffs by any one of the Bucks, Raptors, Celtics, etc.
Yeah I don't disagree on the strategic aspect in the future only how much of a factor Drummond's FT shooting has been to the Pistons this season with 6 of their 7 wins being by 8+ points and of the 3 wins which were close late Drummond took a combined 5 FT's in those games.
Wow. Hawks did their best to cough it up but the Cavs couldn’t fully close. Losing at home to a (previously) 1-8 squad is never a good look.
Clippers fell down 25 and went on a 29-4 run. Tie game. 27-4 4th quarter now.
edit: 31-4, now up 2. Wow.
edit: 31-4, now up 2. Wow.
So now the Knicks and the Hawks have gone into Cleveland and won.
If Lebron changes head coaches, who might replace Ty Lue?
Talk about putting all the pressure in the world on the little guy. This is Best case scenario for him. If he comes back and turns the Cavs around the Brinks truck just may back up for him.
If Lebron changes head coaches, who might replace Ty Lue?
Talk about putting all the pressure in the world on the little guy. This is Best case scenario for him. If he comes back and turns the Cavs around the Brinks truck just may back up for him.
Hawks win in Cleveland? I assume they must have had big nights from Horford, Millsap, Carroll, Teague and Korver.