Worse than Sandies Cookies LeonAre you aware of what Machado is hitting this year?
Worse than Sandies Cookies LeonAre you aware of what Machado is hitting this year?
That just means we should be able to get him for ERod, Groome and Benny and then we could play him in left which in Fenway is similar to deep 3rd.Are you aware of what Machado is hitting this year?
This is silly. Yes, the offense is infuriating at times and we lack a power bat in the middle of the lineup, but we are on pace for 765 runs. That is 12 less than the 2016 Indians, and 40 more than the 2015 Royals. With a playoff rotation of Sale/Price/Porcello/Pomeranz, I will take our chances. Giving up some combination of Devers/Edro/Groome/Chavis/etc for Stanton and his salary and injury history does not seem prudent to me.I dont see the team going deep in the post season with this offense. More likely a repeat of the LDS with the Indians and we had Papi then. Just too hard to string hits together in the post season against good pitching
Pitching is solid though. I'd consider moving E-Rod or Pomeranz and packaging one of them with Groome and whatever to get some elite offense with power. Maybe even Benintendi too if that comes in the OF
Marlins might listen on Stanton. Orioles may do the same on Machado. DD needs to think big and JWH needs to open up the wallet
Who is the last team the Dodgers would want to face?I don't know. Traditionally it's pitching, defense and speed that wins short winner-take-all series. Maybe I think too much of the old Red Sox teams that bashed their way into an early trip home.
Hitting comes and goes, particularly against good pitching. Facing Sale, Price, etc. in a short series is pretty scary. Facing Kimbrel in the 9th is daunting.
If the shoe were on the other foot, Boston's the last team I'd want to face...unless I was the Dodgers.
Nicely put, and I agree 100%.To be clear, I'm not saying do nothing, exactly. We could clearly use another bat who can play 3B, and we don't need to give up much to get one. We could clearly use another reliever who can insure us against Kelly's injury lingering and Hembree continuing to fall off a cliff, and we don't need to give up much to get one of those, either. I'm just saying that, if this team wins the World Series, it'll be primarily because of the players who are already on it. And if the players already on board aren't enough or almost enough to get us there, we ain't goin'.
Why even refer to such a tweet, if it's just a "random guy"?So, that random guy on twitter suggesting the Red Sox should offer Bogaerts AND Devers for Machado - without blinking - is out of his mind, right? Please tell me DD would never do that.
The 1998 Yankees?Who is the last team the Dodgers would want to face?
Was it Donald?So, that random guy on twitter suggesting the Red Sox should offer Bogaerts AND Devers for Machado - without blinking - is out of his mind, right? Please tell me DD would never do that.
Yeah what Workman showed today was impressive. SoxStats had his velo back to 2013 levels. If he's able to contribute in the back end that would be fantastic.I am hoping Workman will turn into that "Neshek/Wilson type", Carson Smith will come back in September and be an asset, and maybe we get a Devers call up in a few weeks? If Price and Pomeranz keep pitchng like they have been, I think we are in good shape. I dont think this team is necessarily a WS winner, but we could make a run, if everything falls into place.
This is all too true. If there's yet another trade out there that will enhance the probability of winning between 2017 and 2019, I think they will make it regardless of what it does to the outlook for 2020 and beyond.. The Sale trade effectively bought us into a 3 year window. Not going for it 100% each of these next 3 years is a huge disservice to future value traded away.
Chavis "power surge" is inflated by an entirely unsustainable 40% HR/FB ratio at High A. He is back to a 20% HR/FB ratio at AA (still high for career) and has generally struggled at AA. In almost 100 ABs he has a sub 300 OBP to go along with a .780 OPS.This is all too true. If there's yet another trade out there that will enhance the probability of winning between 2017 and 2019, I think they will make it regardless of what it does to the outlook for 2020 and beyond.
My guess is that Devers is untouchable because he's a key to 2018 and 2019. Chavis' power surge is also not something easily bought, and he could be ready mid-2018. Groome--probably not ready in that window. That's who I'd expect to headline a package to get the next Tyler Thornburg.
Ignores the fact he has a .236 BAbip in that time and only has 15 strikeouts in 96 PA when the big concern with him is strikeouts. He hasn't struggled in AA. He's been unlucky.Chavis "power surge" is inflated by an entirely unsustainable 40% HR/FB ratio at High A. He is back to a 20% HR/FB ratio at AA (still high for career) and has generally struggled at AA. In almost 100 ABs he has a sub 300 OBP to go along with a .780 OPS.
His position is 3B but he is 2yrs older than Devers so he really has no future in BOS.
If you can get something of value for him this year I think you have to pull the trigger. His value may never be higher and the chances he unseats Devers are miniscule. He is the one player we won't regret trading regardless of what he becomes.
12% LD rate says otherwise. BABIP is quickly becoming the most overused stat. BABIP is only as useful as the contact being made. Chavis LD % is half of what it was at high-A. Does that mean is unlucky or struggling with AA pitching? My guess is it is more the latter.Ignores the fact he has a .236 BAbip in that time and only has 15 strikeouts in 96 PA when the big concern with him is strikeouts. He hasn't struggled in AA. He's been unlucky.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I'm curious what it is about xFIP that you don't like in this context.Of that group I think I'm only interested in Neshek, based on likely cost of a rental vs years of control. DD worked some serious magic to get Ziegler for what he did last year; it would be lovely if he could do the same here, but the fact that Neshek is still in Philly makes me think there's just more competition this time around. I don't remember Ziegler really being high up on the trade radar before the deal.
I don't think xfip is a useful stat for discussing relievers over half a season; let's look at FIP instead:
Wilson: 2.97
Strickland: 3.26
Neshek: 2.07
Hand: 2.77
Reed: 2.83
Kimbrel: 1.11
Barnes: 3.07
Hembree: 3.73
Kelly: 3.39
I was drunk.98 PA seems like too small a sample to try to do much with component numbers, especially batted-ball numbers.
EDIT: Or, what Cuzitt said.
.....except, both the Sea Dogs website and the Sox Prospects wrapup credit Olt, not Chavis, with that 3-hit game at third base yesterday.
I might quibble with this a bit. The Yankees swiped the best option on the market for fixing 3B from the Sox at the last second (kind of old school Sox/Yanks stuff actually), and bolster an already really good pen. They prevented the Sox from getting better while improving themselves significantly, and I think the division is absolutely up for grabs if the Sox don't find a way to plug the 3B hole and improve their own pen.The Sox look pretty well set to make the playoffs, with a good chance to hold the division lead. With that in your pocket, I think I'd be thinking about what this team might need for the playoffs.
Impressive feat during an off dayOr, you know, both. Or neither (small sample size). All of these numbers probably look a lot different after his single, double, HR game yesterday.
Frazier has been a net negative for most of the year. I'm more concerned the Yankees got Robertson than anything. The best option for fixing 3rd is down in AAA right now. I'd argue that he was even the best option when Frazier was available.I might quibble with this a bit. The Yankees swiped the best option on the market for fixing 3B from the Sox at the last second (kind of old school Sox/Yanks stuff actually), and bolster an already really good pen. They prevented the Sox from getting better while improving themselves significantly, and I think the division is absolutely up for grabs if the Sox don't find a way to plug the 3B hole and improve their own pen.
We're going to talk about that in some detail on the next episode of the podcast, actually.
By what measure is he a net negative? He has a 102 wRC+ so he's league average with the bat. There aren't any defensive measures that have him as a negative, even if you want to tap into smaller than recommended samples for things like UZR. His plays completed percentage are all within the expected ranges for each type of play.Frazier has been a net negative for most of the year. I'm more concerned the Yankees got Robertson than anything. The best option for fixing 3rd is down in AAA right now. I'd argue that he was even the best option when Frazier was available.
Certainly a valid point to argue, and likely a good choice for the podcast. Since early in the season, once the Yanks rolled out fast, I have been positing that this is their version of a late-70's Red Sox team (among many others), a team built around power hitters who may fade down the stretch due to insufficient starting pitching.I might quibble with this a bit. The Yankees swiped the best option on the market for fixing 3B from the Sox at the last second (kind of old school Sox/Yanks stuff actually), and bolster an already really good pen. They prevented the Sox from getting better while improving themselves significantly, and I think the division is absolutely up for grabs if the Sox don't find a way to plug the 3B hole and improve their own pen.
We're going to talk about that in some detail on the next episode of the podcast, actually.
Sadly he's not a rental - and very expensive - I'm not sure we could fit his 18m salary under the LT threshold this year. Perhaps if the Rangers kicked some money in (in exchange for a better prospect package) . What's 1.4 years of Adrian Beltre - at $18m per year worth ? Have to think Chavis plus a couple of lesser prospects might get it done.Anything more then I'd say no thanks.I see the Rangers are gauging interest on Darvish. If they bow out of the race, wonder what it would take to land Beltre? Seems like the perfect fit...
They've also been on the road. Judge's home/road splits are huge.Could Judge be another victim of the Home Run Derby curse? He's 4 for 29 since then, with 11 Ks, 2 RBIs and 0 HRs.
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They really upgraded spots that didn't need to be upgraded. One has to wonder if their trades were more about blocking the Sox and less about what they need which is starting pitching badly.Certainly a valid point to argue, and likely a good choice for the podcast. Since early in the season, once the Yanks rolled out fast, I have been positing that this is their version of a late-70's Red Sox team (among many others), a team built around power hitters who may fade down the stretch due to insufficient starting pitching.
Could Judge be another victim of the Home Run Derby curse? He's 4 for 29 since then, with 11 Ks, 2 RBIs and 0 HRs.
Considering that the Yanks are only a game up on the second WC spot, I think they needed to make those moves simply to keep a hold on a WC.
I'm starting to think this is more ideal than nabbing a 3B who's a FA at the end of 2017. Trading for someone like Beltre (or Freese) who's under contract through 2018 would theoretically be able to fetch us a return if Devers is ready and if the market changes over the offseason, or by next deadline. Like how A.J. Preller magically got more for Kimbrel than he gave up to the Braves a year prior.Sadly he's not a rental - and very expensive - I'm not sure we could fit his 18m salary under the LT threshold this year. Perhaps if the Rangers kicked some money in (in exchange for a better prospect package) . What's 1.4 years of Adrian Beltre - at $18m per year worth ? Have to think Chavis plus a couple of lesser prospects might get it done.Anything more then I'd say no thanks.
He slots in at third this year and next with Devers knocking on the door - possibly into Moreland's spot - and then back to third in 2019.
Beltre's contract status
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/adrian-beltre-748/
I don't know about that. Kahnle has been ridiculously good and is a large upgrade over Clippard and a long term asset. If anything, having a bullpen that good helps mask a potential decline in their starting pitching. Good luck if you're down in the 6th. They have the best bullpen in baseball now (unless the Dodgers get Britton).They really upgraded spots that didn't need to be upgraded. One has to wonder if their trades were more about blocking the Sox and less about what they need which is starting pitching badly.
Agree. If Chavis ++ would get it done, I would be all over that. I know the LT is an issue, but they've already somewhat pushed their chips in on the next few years...it seems another smaller (relatively) bet here in terms of prospects and $$$ makes sense.I'm starting to think this is more ideal than nabbing a 3B who's a FA at the end of 2017. Trading for someone like Beltre (or Freese) who's under contract through 2018 would theoretically be able to fetch us a return if Devers is ready and if the market changes over the offseason, or by next deadline. Like how A.J. Preller magically got more for Kimbrel than he gave up to the Braves a year prior.
SSS mostly. Trusting 30-40 ip to establish a predictive stat seems extremely foolish to me.I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I'm curious what it is about xFIP that you don't like in this context.
I don't know. I think in a case like Kelly's, where he's got a 4.06 xFIP (a 2.57 difference from his ERA) paired with a 0.25 HR/9 rate (0.57 lower than his career rate, 0.88 lower than last year and 0.75 lower than 2015) it can be pretty instructive.SSS mostly. Trusting 30-40 ip to establish a predictive stat seems extremely foolish to me.
Me too, I like DD's operating style. He is surgical once he makes a decision and has knows elite talent, ie. Sale, Kimbrell, hopefully Carson Smith at some point, Pom has been good this year. On the downside, he does overpay. Devers and Groome are untouchable for me but so was Moncada last year and I'm good now with losing him for Sale.I'm enjoying watching Dombrowski operate. He defies easy characterization - we've seen him strike fast and not be afraid to (perhaps) overpay, but we're also seeing now that he doesn't panic and was willing to risk losing out on the Frazier trade rather than get held up by the White Sox. And while I don't want to see him ship off Devers or Groome for rentals or marginal upgrades, I do appreciate that he's not one to fall in love with his prospects and let them die on the vine the way Ben and even Theo would do at times.
I like Kinsler as a 3B option for this year, $5.5M for this year and $10M for next year. I think he could make the transition there defensively. Cozart is even more attractive with $2.65M left for this year and and a UFA in 2018.Ken Rosenthal wrote on his facebook blog (still sad he's resigned to that) that Dom was apparently "thinking outside the box" for 3B options. He said Cozart and **Ian Kinsler** would be interesting outside the box suggestions for us. Both would have to make a move to a position they've never played before, but would add a great deal of experience and stability.
Thoughts?
What happens to Devers if we acquire Kinsler?I like Kinsler as a 3B option for this year, $5.5M for this year and $10M for next year. I think he could make the transition there defensively. Cozart is even more attractive with $2.65M left for this year and and a UFA in 2018.
Nothing. If Kinsler can make the move to 3B without a hitch, Devers is able to stay down in Pawtucket for the forseeable future (probably until April 20, 2018 so we save a year of service time).What happens to Devers if we acquire Kinsler?
Kelly is tough to gauge IMO, he started out with a flukishly low K/9 over his first 5-6 appearances. Since April 23rd he has a roughly 9 K/9 4 BB/9 .34 HR rate and a 3.10 FIP, 3.55 xFIPI don't know. I think in a case like Kelly's, where he's got a 4.06 xFIP (a 2.57 difference from his ERA) paired with a 0.25 HR/9 rate (0.57 lower than his career rate, 0.88 lower than last year and 0.75 lower than 2015) it can be pretty instructive.
I think his xFIP is far more likely to be what he's gonna be going forward than his FIP. Especially since his xFIP matches up with who he's been for his entire career in FIP and xFIP. His career ERA isn't much lower, either.
Cozart is interesting, real breakout year for him at age 31. He would also give us some X insurance in case the hand continues to bother him. Nice thing about Cozart is he has no home/away split so his production isn't inflated by the CIN band box.I like Kinsler as a 3B option for this year, $5.5M for this year and $10M for next year. I think he could make the transition there defensively. Cozart is even more attractive with $2.65M left for this year and and a UFA in 2018.
Cozart said he's basically been taking batting lessons from Votto all offseason/year. Not a bad guy to take lessons from. Only thing that concerns me about him is sustainability. His 2017 batted ball stats are eerily identical to 2016's stats.Cozart is interesting, real breakout year for him at age 31. He would also give us some X insurance in case the hand continues to bother him. Nice thing about Cozart is he has no home/away split so his production isn't inflated by the CIN band box.