This is true. I doubt they felt like they had much of a choice but to get the pitching straightened out first. A bad start from Johnson, without Velazquez around, could've set them back another week.
What will D-Dom do before the trade deadline?
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
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Devers is a 20 year old kid who hasn't even stepped foot in the majors yet. The fact you are even reaching for that one alone says enough to me about how much legitimate thought you've actually put into this possibility beyond the immediate dismissal generated out of extreme prospect humping.
Pretty sure it was you that helped me better understand those harsher penalties in the offseason too btw. But yeah, even factoring them in I still see us spending over the cap, giving up those picks, and ultimately ADDING to that top 5 overall prospect who can still have value playing somewhere else.
This has less to do with me being right btw, and more to do with DD being who he is rather then who you would prefer him to be. He's not falling short of a title again, clocking in with an offense that ranks among the league worst in homeruns, and not adding a legit upgrade bat in the off-season. Even if the alternative ends up hurting your own vision of how things should be far more then this would. Book that.
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If DD does something nuts like trade Chavis and Groome for Frazier and Robertson I'm going to lose it.
Snodgrass may be off above on where we end up placing our line in the sand priorities, but he was right imo in the underlying point that they'll still likely be a little more mindful to not just infinitely spend away and/or blow past a point of no possible return.
Robertson not only complicates the reset possibility this year, but that $13m salary on next year's payroll might not end up looking so hot when we still go into this winter with a need/desire to spend money tweaking the roster elsewhere. Unlike the "where is the middle of the order power coming from" question, the internal option to reasonably fall back on a "if one of Thornburg/Smith are healthy and rebound" will be there.
I can see DD getting his RP for the stretch and pissing you off in another way, but I just can't see it on Robertson.
Moreland was supposed to be a high floor, low ceiling play, which made sense for the Sox given that they were (and are) lined up for contention.
It's just that his floor has fallen out midseason. Hopefully he can go back to being what he was, but that's really all I'd expect.
His floor dropped out when he broke his toe. When he was healthy, he looked damn good. Lots of doubles, fair amount of home runs, he was better than fine. Then he broke his toe and his line nosedived. I don't know if broken, or fractured, or whatever toe heals very quickly when you play on it, but if it doesn't, he needs to be on the DL because he's not one of the solutions right now. Same for Xander, though an infield of Holt/Marerro/Lin, Pedroia, Travis makes me want to weep. But if you get Xander and Moreland healthy, there is no reason to freak out long term. They'll be back and useful again once they're healthy. It'd just be weathering the storm of a weak, weak lineup until they are back. Was Frazier a guy who would make the loss of those two guys better? I don't know. We need someone who can bang the hell out of the ball, play 3B and DH when Hanley is at 1B. But Texas isn't sending us Adrian Beltre.
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If Neil Walker is back in time from his hamstring thing and still able to play the position, he's the most attractive third base target available. There aren't even any cusp teams looking for second basemen (Blue Jays? Angels?).
DD seems linked to the Mets right now, but I'd rather his bat over Flores, Rivera, or Cabrera. Plus Reed.
DD seems linked to the Mets right now, but I'd rather his bat over Flores, Rivera, or Cabrera. Plus Reed.
If Mitchy doesn't turn it around before the end of the month, would the Sox look for help at 1B/DH to get some power back into the lineup? Something along the lines of Matt Adams?
Neil Walker has pretty much never played third base. 6 games in 2010, 9 games in 2009. He's not a third baseman target, much less an attractive one.
It's possible this is correct, but he did come up as a third baseman. Not exactly the most demanding switch.
Cabrera or Cozart have never played third either.
Edit: Walker says he's "up for the challenge" in this interview from last June, though "it would probably take several days" of practice at the position: https://www.sny.tv/video/topic/170114140/825374383/neil-walker-on-back-third-base
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I agree. I'm on board the "do nothing" train. I would prefer DD spends his days thinking about international free agents and improving the farm system. This team is pretty good as it is, it's well set up to be pretty good for the next few years, the biggest question for me is whether the farm system continues to produce new talent.
We aren't bad enough, even at third base, to need to give away talent for mediocre players like Frazier. And the farm system is no longer stocked enough to even think about another Sale-level trade for a game changing player like Machado or Donaldson. So, pass and let's see if we got enough.
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To be clear, I'm not saying do nothing, exactly. We could clearly use another bat who can play 3B, and we don't need to give up much to get one. We could clearly use another reliever who can insure us against Kelly's injury lingering and Hembree continuing to fall off a cliff, and we don't need to give up much to get one of those, either. I'm just saying that, if this team wins the World Series, it'll be primarily because of the players who are already on it. And if the players already on board aren't enough or almost enough to get us there, we ain't goin'.
I think it is time to give our friends in SD a call to see if they can lend a "Hand".
Brad Hand should come at a moderate price given the market for relievers this year and you have him for 2 more years. He is the missing piece in this bullpen, a lefty who can be trusted to face both L/R hitters and give you multiple innings if needed. I don't think anyone would be comfortable with Robbie Scott or Abad facing a tough lefty in a key spot in the playoffs.
With WAS and MFY already picking up multiple RPs there aren't likely to be a ton of buyers left for relievers without closing experience. SD knows our farm system as well as anyone and have needs virtually everywhere so it shouldn't be hard to get a deal done. Pomeranz performance this year should absolve them of any potential bitterness from last year, esp given Espinoza is yet to pitch in 17.
Brad Hand should come at a moderate price given the market for relievers this year and you have him for 2 more years. He is the missing piece in this bullpen, a lefty who can be trusted to face both L/R hitters and give you multiple innings if needed. I don't think anyone would be comfortable with Robbie Scott or Abad facing a tough lefty in a key spot in the playoffs.
With WAS and MFY already picking up multiple RPs there aren't likely to be a ton of buyers left for relievers without closing experience. SD knows our farm system as well as anyone and have needs virtually everywhere so it shouldn't be hard to get a deal done. Pomeranz performance this year should absolve them of any potential bitterness from last year, esp given Espinoza is yet to pitch in 17.
Doug Mentkiewitz and Orlando Cabrera didn't seem like they'd be game-changers, but...you never know!
Team needs an arm and a bat. We're hamstrung by the tax situation, otherwise we'd probably have Robertson. Frazier might end up being a non-factor, as his bat seems to come and go, mostly the latter. But the 2 setup guys the Y's got could end up being difference makers. Our catching defense is optimal, and I don't see Farrell making a move there for offense. That leaves third base, and it would appear that Dombo is biding his time to see where Devers it at on the 31st. He went deep last night. meanwhile Lowrie's been in a slump, Nunez has a poor defensive history, and Prado sucks. There are still some other question marks which could make Dombo wait as long as possible: Can Hanley play 1st regularly? Is Chris Young not completely washed up? Will some down time for Moreland improve his swing? Will the Royals go on a 10 game losing streak and try to dump Moose? Does Carson Smith exist as a 3 dimensional terrestrial being?
Hopefully Dombo won't get left without a seat when the music stops on the 31st
Team needs an arm and a bat. We're hamstrung by the tax situation, otherwise we'd probably have Robertson. Frazier might end up being a non-factor, as his bat seems to come and go, mostly the latter. But the 2 setup guys the Y's got could end up being difference makers. Our catching defense is optimal, and I don't see Farrell making a move there for offense. That leaves third base, and it would appear that Dombo is biding his time to see where Devers it at on the 31st. He went deep last night. meanwhile Lowrie's been in a slump, Nunez has a poor defensive history, and Prado sucks. There are still some other question marks which could make Dombo wait as long as possible: Can Hanley play 1st regularly? Is Chris Young not completely washed up? Will some down time for Moreland improve his swing? Will the Royals go on a 10 game losing streak and try to dump Moose? Does Carson Smith exist as a 3 dimensional terrestrial being?
Hopefully Dombo won't get left without a seat when the music stops on the 31st
Preller has been asking for the moon supposedly. Wants a return similar to what the Phillies got for Ken Giles. No thanks.
He can ask for the moon but teams aren't paying that. If he thinks they are better off holding onto a very good but not Ace tier reliever for another 2 seasons of rebuilding so be it.
I wouldn't overpay but he would fit in quite nicely.
Giles was better when PHI traded him and under control for longer so don't really see the comparison.
Preller has some creditability issues working against him as well. Perhaps not enough that no one will deal with him but may give some teams (Red Sox?) hesitation to deal with them, and less likely to send a huge package his way.
One big thing to remember is that the Sox strong starting pitching makes the need for a dominant reliever less than the mfy's, for example. Not just because the burden is less during the regular season, but because 1-2 LHP could be shifted from starting to relief in a playoffs series that only demands a 4-man rotation.
Not to say the Sox shouldn't try to get a good LHRP, but Doubront's awesome work in 2013 may be a good lesson on why not to give up too much from the depleted farm, to get one.
Not to say the Sox shouldn't try to get a good LHRP, but Doubront's awesome work in 2013 may be a good lesson on why not to give up too much from the depleted farm, to get one.
I've probably got one of the lowest opinions about this bullpen on the board, but yeah, giving up a top prospect for a reliever would be dumb. They absolutely need to add a stable arm to the mix for late inning work, but Andrew Miller isn't walking through that door, so Groome or Chavis shouldn't be heading out (to say nothing of Devers and his untouchability).
Neshek, Phelps, Wilson... something in that range is exactly what the doctor ordered, and those guys should be attainable without giving up one of the the top 4 prospects on soxprospects.com's current list. I'd probably even stretch that to say any of the top 7 there (Devers, Groome, Travis, Chavis, Houck, Mata, Flores).
Wilson is probably going to get more in trade that any reliever this trade season. Devers is obviously off the table and Groome likely as well but if you want Wilson you are going to pay a hefty price. He throws 97 with a 12 K/9 an is a "closer". Plus he is controlled through next season as well.
The reason I'd be comfortable paying market value for Hand is just that, two extra years of control.
Neshek is a pure rental and rather unnecessary given the glut of RH relievers we already have.
He's also walking 3.5 per 9 and has a track record that suggests he's not as good as he looks this year. And his xFIP is 3.50. If the Tigers are going to insist on him bringing back an elite back of the bullpen package, then he's staying in Detroit. I don't think any GM's are going to be willing to go there for a little more than a half a season of an impressive ERA and FIP that aren't supported by what surrounds them.
Ross has been on the DL since May with elbow inflammation. Other than this article two days ago on OutsidePitchMLB.com off-handedly mentioning he "could be returning soon" with no quotes or citations from a credible source, I can't find any mention of him and his progress from the injury.
No news on things like this usually means there has been no progress and I'd put him with Thornburg on the list of guys we won't be seeing again this year.
Carson Smith threw his 2nd bullpen session on Tuesday and is traveling with the team to Anaheim to throw a third session. If all goes well, he would head out on a rehab assignment. This is the furthest he has gotten this year, so maybe they'll actually get 6-8 weeks out of him this season. At least one can hope.
I am a bit skeptical about this announcement 1 1/2 weeks before the trade deadline as the Sox are shopping for a reliever..........The Yankees just made a similar announcement about Bird just prior to dealing for a first baseman and subsequently sending Bird for surgery. I am not saying Smith is heading for surgery, just that it helps the Sox in negotiations...."We don't desperately need your reliever since Carson Smith is on rehab assignment and will be returning to us shortly"
I think it is largely irrelevant, there are rumored to be 10-12 suitors for Justin Wilson. Do you really think a GM is at all concerned about how needy one particular team is? They pit teams against each other and extract maximum value.
This might be more relevant if we were talking about 3B where there isn't nearly as strong a market but the RP market is always in demand.
What's to be skeptical about? Of course they will use every bit of leverage they can to reduce prices. Any GM worth his salt would be a fool not to. Does that mean that Smith isn't throwing bullpen sessions? He isn't on track to start a rehab assignment? That it's all a ruse to enable them to trade their 34th best prospect instead of their 30th best prospect for Pat Neshek?
Phelps return is pretty good
“@JeffPassan: Sources: OF Brayan Hernandez is the top prospect heading from Seattle to Miami. Big bonus baby a few years back, high ceiling, only 19.”
“@JeffPassan: Marlins also getting RHPs Brandon Miller and Lukas Schiraldi, son of Calvin, in return for David Phelps.”
“@JeffPassan: Sources: OF Brayan Hernandez is the top prospect heading from Seattle to Miami. Big bonus baby a few years back, high ceiling, only 19.”
“@JeffPassan: Marlins also getting RHPs Brandon Miller and Lukas Schiraldi, son of Calvin, in return for David Phelps.”
I don't buy the Carson Smith conspiracy theory. He actually threw off a mound Tuesday, and will again on Friday. Those are real benchmarks with real significance. They'll likely send him out for a few innings of rehab afterwards. Barring further setbacks, he'll be activated in two weeks.
It's not that impressive, really. Hernandez has moved up to number 6 on MLB Pipeline's top 30 for the Mariners, Miller is 16 and Schiraldi isn't ranked. Sox matching would be someone like Ockimey, and then a pitcher in the Anderson/Martin range, and another like Trey Ball or maybe Ty Buttrey.
Jim Bowden tweeted that one executive described the return was quantity rather than quality.
I think you've said this twice now and it's not really true. Everyone has been trying to figure out what's wrong with Bird since he fouled a ball off his foot at the end of spring training, multiple doctors have been baffled. He took a cortisone shot and then took a few days of unpublicized but reported BP with one of NY's rookie league teams, after which NY said he would start playing rehab games. But at the same time, they finally figured out his issue, it was in a bone that only 20 percent of the population has, so instead he had surgery to fix that. Nothing suspicious about the timeline if you were actually following what was going on, which isn't to say what you're talking about doesn't happen, but it didn't here.
I mean, Phelps is nothing special, plus he is coming to the AL from the NL. He is an adequate arm but certainly not someone who should draw a big prospect package, and there are many much higher impact relievers still out there and available (Britton, Justin Wilson, I hope Betances).
Here's a question. Looking around the league, I see us as at best the fourth candidate to win the WS. We have tremendous starting pitching, 1-5, and a good pen headlined by an elite closer. We have great team defense, especially in the OF and from catcher, and no real disaster areas now that we've shored up 3B. But the offense is merely okay.
This puts us well behind, in my eyes, teams like LAD, Houston (assuming they acquire another SP), and Washington (now with a deep pen, courtesy of Billy Beane), and in the higher end of the next tier of good teams like Chicago, Cleveland, Colorado, Arizona, TB and NY: teams that I could see in the post-season, but maybe don't expect to make the World Series. Houston, in particular, is impressive. We have a +66 run differential; Houston has a +167. I think they would be a tough matchup in a postseason series, especially if they add a Gray or a Verlander, as I expect they will.
But next year looks more promising. We'll have opportunities to improve our corner infield spots from among Devers, Travis, and likely a slugger from FA or trade — Logan Morrison, Jose Abreu, etc.? — without losing much from the big league roster. And the young guys will be more emphatically in their prime.
How much should this factor into Dombrowski's deadline thinking? Obviously, anything can happen in the postseason — the 2006 World Championship Cardinals say hi! — and you have to compete: that's the whole point of sports. But I wouldn't want to do anything that would appreciably detract from the 2018 Sox, which could be a really special team.
On the other hand: our pitchers are healthy now, and there are no guarantees that will continue. The case for the 2017 World Championship Red Sox starts with Sale and Price shouldering a ton of IP in the playoffs, with Rodriguez and Porcello in the 3-4 slots, and Pomeranz as a relief ace bridging to Carson Smith (dare to dream!) and Kimbrel. If the Bs can be reasonably hot at the same time, we can win enough close games to go deep in the playoffs. But we need a better 3B situation to lengthen the lineup.
(I think I may be arguing myself into handing the 3B job to Devers sooner than later.)
How do you guys see this?
This puts us well behind, in my eyes, teams like LAD, Houston (assuming they acquire another SP), and Washington (now with a deep pen, courtesy of Billy Beane), and in the higher end of the next tier of good teams like Chicago, Cleveland, Colorado, Arizona, TB and NY: teams that I could see in the post-season, but maybe don't expect to make the World Series. Houston, in particular, is impressive. We have a +66 run differential; Houston has a +167. I think they would be a tough matchup in a postseason series, especially if they add a Gray or a Verlander, as I expect they will.
But next year looks more promising. We'll have opportunities to improve our corner infield spots from among Devers, Travis, and likely a slugger from FA or trade — Logan Morrison, Jose Abreu, etc.? — without losing much from the big league roster. And the young guys will be more emphatically in their prime.
How much should this factor into Dombrowski's deadline thinking? Obviously, anything can happen in the postseason — the 2006 World Championship Cardinals say hi! — and you have to compete: that's the whole point of sports. But I wouldn't want to do anything that would appreciably detract from the 2018 Sox, which could be a really special team.
On the other hand: our pitchers are healthy now, and there are no guarantees that will continue. The case for the 2017 World Championship Red Sox starts with Sale and Price shouldering a ton of IP in the playoffs, with Rodriguez and Porcello in the 3-4 slots, and Pomeranz as a relief ace bridging to Carson Smith (dare to dream!) and Kimbrel. If the Bs can be reasonably hot at the same time, we can win enough close games to go deep in the playoffs. But we need a better 3B situation to lengthen the lineup.
(I think I may be arguing myself into handing the 3B job to Devers sooner than later.)
How do you guys see this?
Sure, but what moves do you make to try and accomplish that? The third base market is garbage and they have a great prospect who is, at worst, on the cusp of being ready. The reliever market has no standout options available for trade and that market is elevated and probably not worth buying into.
So how do you "go for it" with this team, and these prospects, and this market? Where is the clear upgrade that's worth paying for?
This team hasn't hit on all cylinders yet and we're still in first. We already are going for it. Our upgrades should be fringe plays with an eye towards RP while we wait for Devers. We won't go anywhere without a Neshek/Wilson type.
I am hoping Workman will turn into that "Neshek/Wilson type", Carson Smith will come back in September and be an asset, and maybe we get a Devers call up in a few weeks? If Price and Pomeranz keep pitchng like they have been, I think we are in good shape. I dont think this team is necessarily a WS winner, but we could make a run, if everything falls into place.
I dont see the team going deep in the post season with this offense. More likely a repeat of the LDS with the Indians and we had Papi then. Just too hard to string hits together in the post season against good pitching
Pitching is solid though. I'd consider moving E-Rod or Pomeranz and packaging one of them with Groome and whatever to get some elite offense with power. Maybe even Benintendi too if that comes in the OF
Marlins might listen on Stanton. Orioles may do the same on Machado. DD needs to think big and JWH needs to open up the wallet
Pitching is solid though. I'd consider moving E-Rod or Pomeranz and packaging one of them with Groome and whatever to get some elite offense with power. Maybe even Benintendi too if that comes in the OF
Marlins might listen on Stanton. Orioles may do the same on Machado. DD needs to think big and JWH needs to open up the wallet
Insanity. Weaken the strength of the team to add one (super expensive) bat? Like you said, last year they had Papi and still got shut down. Is Stanton or Machado going to magically prevent that from happening?
Don't get me wrong, putting Stanton or Machado makes it a more formidable lineup (less so if they're losing Benintendi in the process). But if those teams are inclined to move a franchise player, they're not likely looking for MLB talent. They'll want top prospects for the future. The Red Sox don't have the prospects to get it done.
The story of that series, along with the last week of the regular season, was a badly timed team wide offensive slump, Papi included. Maybe it was luck, maybe they wore down, but I'm not sure how much it has to do with their regular season performance. Maybe this year Hanley's hot and gets you everything you'd want from Stanton without taking on one of the worst contracts in baseball, or maybe he's terrible; the GM ultimately doesn't have the final say over what happens on the field in October.
