What will D-Dom do before the trade deadline?
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
- Start date
That just means we should be able to get him for ERod, Groome and Benny and then we could play him in left which in Fenway is similar to deep 3rd.
This is silly. Yes, the offense is infuriating at times and we lack a power bat in the middle of the lineup, but we are on pace for 765 runs. That is 12 less than the 2016 Indians, and 40 more than the 2015 Royals. With a playoff rotation of Sale/Price/Porcello/Pomeranz, I will take our chances. Giving up some combination of Devers/Edro/Groome/Chavis/etc for Stanton and his salary and injury history does not seem prudent to me.
I don't know. Traditionally it's pitching, defense and speed that wins short winner-take-all series. Maybe I think too much of the old Red Sox teams that bashed their way into an early trip home.
Hitting comes and goes, particularly against good pitching. Facing Sale, Price, etc. in a short series is pretty scary. Facing Kimbrel in the 9th is daunting.
If the shoe were on the other foot, Boston's the last team I'd want to face...unless I was the Dodgers.
Hitting comes and goes, particularly against good pitching. Facing Sale, Price, etc. in a short series is pretty scary. Facing Kimbrel in the 9th is daunting.
If the shoe were on the other foot, Boston's the last team I'd want to face...unless I was the Dodgers.
So, that random guy on twitter suggesting the Red Sox should offer Bogaerts AND Devers for Machado - without blinking - is out of his mind, right? Please tell me DD would never do that.
Was it Donald?
He says some pretty crazy shit on twitter I've heard.
Yeah what Workman showed today was impressive. SoxStats had his velo back to 2013 levels. If he's able to contribute in the back end that would be fantastic.
I am far from a believer in trading Devers or Groome. But re: the rest of the system, if there is a controllable option out there that will take Chavis and/or some of our other mid-level prospects, I think we'd be remiss not to go after them. The Sale trade effectively bought us into a 3 year window. Not going for it 100% each of these next 3 years is a huge disservice to future value traded away.
This is all too true. If there's yet another trade out there that will enhance the probability of winning between 2017 and 2019, I think they will make it regardless of what it does to the outlook for 2020 and beyond.
My guess is that Devers is untouchable because he's a key to 2018 and 2019. Chavis' power surge is also not something easily bought, and he could be ready mid-2018. Groome--probably not ready in that window. That's who I'd expect to headline a package to get the next Tyler Thornburg.
Just some stats for relievers the Red Sox are possibly pursuing and the disparities between ERA and xFIP with BABIP thrown in. These are down and dirty numbers and don't incorporate line drive/fly ball/hard hit percentages. I honestly have no idea how meaningful the numbers are, and have REGRESSION! warning signs but it was something I was concerned about a month ago, and a month later, they are still killing it.
These are the most impactful arms out there - I'm not going to include Britton since that's not happening.
Justin Wilson - 2.75 vs. 3.50 BABIP .219
Hunter Strickland - 1.85 vs. 4.86 BABIP .311
Pat Neshek - 1.17 vs. 3.36 BABIP .269
Brad Hand - 2.25 vs. 2.88 BABIP .278
Addison Reed - 2.40 vs. 3.63 BABIP .298 and pitching in a terrible division.
Out of that crew, no doubt Hand looks like the real deal, but he's going to cost a lot with all the competition out there and his years of control. I'm willing to bet much of the cost for the Yankees trade was geared towards Kahnle since he looks like he's had an Andrew Miller like break out. Hand to me, is the next best guy out there who the Sox would pursue.
Our top guys
Kimbrel 1.32 vs. 1.37 BABIP .219
Barnes 3.18 vs. 3.23 BABIP .269
Hembree 3.50 vs. 3.84 BABIP .363
Kelly 1.49 vs. 4.05 BABIP .228
Granted - Kelly has been a miracle worker, but the other guys are basically who we thought they were. Workman in a small sample size looks to be a potential asset, and even Abad and our taxi squad has performed well. Is whomever being pursued going to be a big upgrade over what is already on the roster? And what happens if Smith ever shows up and/or Kelly gets healthy?
I'm happy with a pure rental for a B prospect if it falls in there lap since injury insurance is important, but I'm not expecting much of an impact guy and hope they don't do something silly when the need isn't all that great.
Take advantage of the buyers market for bats and ride it out.
These are the most impactful arms out there - I'm not going to include Britton since that's not happening.
Justin Wilson - 2.75 vs. 3.50 BABIP .219
Hunter Strickland - 1.85 vs. 4.86 BABIP .311
Pat Neshek - 1.17 vs. 3.36 BABIP .269
Brad Hand - 2.25 vs. 2.88 BABIP .278
Addison Reed - 2.40 vs. 3.63 BABIP .298 and pitching in a terrible division.
Out of that crew, no doubt Hand looks like the real deal, but he's going to cost a lot with all the competition out there and his years of control. I'm willing to bet much of the cost for the Yankees trade was geared towards Kahnle since he looks like he's had an Andrew Miller like break out. Hand to me, is the next best guy out there who the Sox would pursue.
Our top guys
Kimbrel 1.32 vs. 1.37 BABIP .219
Barnes 3.18 vs. 3.23 BABIP .269
Hembree 3.50 vs. 3.84 BABIP .363
Kelly 1.49 vs. 4.05 BABIP .228
Granted - Kelly has been a miracle worker, but the other guys are basically who we thought they were. Workman in a small sample size looks to be a potential asset, and even Abad and our taxi squad has performed well. Is whomever being pursued going to be a big upgrade over what is already on the roster? And what happens if Smith ever shows up and/or Kelly gets healthy?
I'm happy with a pure rental for a B prospect if it falls in there lap since injury insurance is important, but I'm not expecting much of an impact guy and hope they don't do something silly when the need isn't all that great.
Take advantage of the buyers market for bats and ride it out.
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Of that group I think I'm only interested in Neshek, based on likely cost of a rental vs years of control. DD worked some serious magic to get Ziegler for what he did last year; it would be lovely if he could do the same here, but the fact that Neshek is still in Philly makes me think there's just more competition this time around. I don't remember Ziegler really being high up on the trade radar before the deal.
I don't think xfip is a useful stat for discussing relievers over half a season; let's look at FIP instead:
Wilson: 2.97
Strickland: 3.26
Neshek: 2.07
Hand: 2.77
Reed: 2.83
Kimbrel: 1.11
Barnes: 3.07
Hembree: 3.73
Kelly: 3.39
I don't think xfip is a useful stat for discussing relievers over half a season; let's look at FIP instead:
Wilson: 2.97
Strickland: 3.26
Neshek: 2.07
Hand: 2.77
Reed: 2.83
Kimbrel: 1.11
Barnes: 3.07
Hembree: 3.73
Kelly: 3.39
Chavis "power surge" is inflated by an entirely unsustainable 40% HR/FB ratio at High A. He is back to a 20% HR/FB ratio at AA (still high for career) and has generally struggled at AA. In almost 100 ABs he has a sub 300 OBP to go along with a .780 OPS.
His position is 3B but he is 2yrs older than Devers so he really has no future in BOS.
If you can get something of value for him this year I think you have to pull the trigger. His value may never be higher and the chances he unseats Devers are miniscule. He is the one player we won't regret trading regardless of what he becomes.
Ignores the fact he has a .236 BAbip in that time and only has 15 strikeouts in 96 PA when the big concern with him is strikeouts. He hasn't struggled in AA. He's been unlucky.
12% LD rate says otherwise. BABIP is quickly becoming the most overused stat. BABIP is only as useful as the contact being made. Chavis LD % is half of what it was at high-A. Does that mean is unlucky or struggling with AA pitching? My guess is it is more the latter.
Or, you know, both. Or neither (small sample size). All of these numbers probably look a lot different after his single, double, HR game yesterday.
98 PA seems like too small a sample to try to do much with component numbers, especially batted-ball numbers.
EDIT: Or, what Cuzitt said.
.....except, both the Sea Dogs website and the Sox Prospects wrapup credit Olt, not Chavis, with that 3-hit game at third base yesterday.
EDIT: Or, what Cuzitt said.
.....except, both the Sea Dogs website and the Sox Prospects wrapup credit Olt, not Chavis, with that 3-hit game at third base yesterday.
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I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I'm curious what it is about xFIP that you don't like in this context.
The Sox look pretty well set to make the playoffs, with a good chance to hold the division lead. With that in your pocket, I think I'd be thinking about what this team might need for the playoffs.
Considering the stretched out schedule, bullpen depth becomes much less critical. If Kelly can return and continue to pitch as he has since late last season, if Smith can give us some resemblance to what he was before he joined the Sox, and if Workman can indeed be back to the guy he was in the 2012 playoffs, plus the addition of one of the rotation regulars (Pom?), the bullpen could indeed be set.
So I would turn my eyes to adding a bat. 3B would be great, but as that horse has been beaten well past dead in other threads, I'm just going to say that I will be hoping that Devers can show up in September and be the sort of precocious call-up that Ben10 was last year or X was in 2013 (or Ells was in 2007, going even further back). But I think it would be really useful to upgrade the bench with a bat who could give us the potential for some pop off the bench as it seems like either catcher could be a late inning PH candidate. If that bat could play 1B or LF, that would be bonus as in the short-term, it might help mitigate the current slumps of Young and Moreland.
Considering the stretched out schedule, bullpen depth becomes much less critical. If Kelly can return and continue to pitch as he has since late last season, if Smith can give us some resemblance to what he was before he joined the Sox, and if Workman can indeed be back to the guy he was in the 2012 playoffs, plus the addition of one of the rotation regulars (Pom?), the bullpen could indeed be set.
So I would turn my eyes to adding a bat. 3B would be great, but as that horse has been beaten well past dead in other threads, I'm just going to say that I will be hoping that Devers can show up in September and be the sort of precocious call-up that Ben10 was last year or X was in 2013 (or Ells was in 2007, going even further back). But I think it would be really useful to upgrade the bench with a bat who could give us the potential for some pop off the bench as it seems like either catcher could be a late inning PH candidate. If that bat could play 1B or LF, that would be bonus as in the short-term, it might help mitigate the current slumps of Young and Moreland.
I might quibble with this a bit. The Yankees swiped the best option on the market for fixing 3B from the Sox at the last second (kind of old school Sox/Yanks stuff actually), and bolster an already really good pen. They prevented the Sox from getting better while improving themselves significantly, and I think the division is absolutely up for grabs if the Sox don't find a way to plug the 3B hole and improve their own pen.
We're going to talk about that in some detail on the next episode of the podcast, actually.
Impressive feat during an off day
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2017_07_20_hfdaax_prtaax_1&t=g_box&did=milb
Frazier has been a net negative for most of the year. I'm more concerned the Yankees got Robertson than anything. The best option for fixing 3rd is down in AAA right now. I'd argue that he was even the best option when Frazier was available.
I'm enjoying watching Dombrowski operate. He defies easy characterization - we've seen him strike fast and not be afraid to (perhaps) overpay, but we're also seeing now that he doesn't panic and was willing to risk losing out on the Frazier trade rather than get held up by the White Sox. And while I don't want to see him ship off Devers or Groome for rentals or marginal upgrades, I do appreciate that he's not one to fall in love with his prospects and let them die on the vine the way Ben and even Theo would do at times.
By what measure is he a net negative? He has a 102 wRC+ so he's league average with the bat. There aren't any defensive measures that have him as a negative, even if you want to tap into smaller than recommended samples for things like UZR. His plays completed percentage are all within the expected ranges for each type of play.
So how is he a net negative? Keep in mind the Red Sox have been roughly 40% WORSE than league average this year at the plate from 3B. He'd be a huge upgrade over that, even at league average, and he'd add some much needed power. Losing him to the Yankees hurts. Never mind that they needed upgrades at the corners as well.
Certainly a valid point to argue, and likely a good choice for the podcast. Since early in the season, once the Yanks rolled out fast, I have been positing that this is their version of a late-70's Red Sox team (among many others), a team built around power hitters who may fade down the stretch due to insufficient starting pitching.
Could Judge be another victim of the Home Run Derby curse? He's 4 for 29 since then, with 11 Ks, 2 RBIs and 0 HRs.
Considering that the Yanks are only a game up on the second WC spot, I think they needed to make those moves simply to keep a hold on a WC.
I see the Rangers are gauging interest on Darvish.
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-rangers-gauging-yu-darvish-packages-prior-trade-deadline-055417112.html
If they bow out of the race, wonder what it would take to land Beltre? Seems like the perfect fit...
https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-rangers-gauging-yu-darvish-packages-prior-trade-deadline-055417112.html
If they bow out of the race, wonder what it would take to land Beltre? Seems like the perfect fit...
Sadly he's not a rental - and very expensive - I'm not sure we could fit his 18m salary under the LT threshold this year. Perhaps if the Rangers kicked some money in (in exchange for a better prospect package) . What's 1.4 years of Adrian Beltre - at $18m per year worth ? Have to think Chavis plus a couple of lesser prospects might get it done.Anything more then I'd say no thanks.
He slots in at third this year and next with Devers knocking on the door - possibly into Moreland's spot - and then back to third in 2019.
Beltre's contract status
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/texas-rangers/adrian-beltre-748/
They've also been on the road. Judge's home/road splits are huge.
2017
Home: .377/.489/.834
Road: .257/.387/.480
Frazier obviously would have been an upgrade over what they've gotten from 3B overall, but Lin was when he was playing, too, and Devers potentially has a chance to be, also. I'm not convinced Frazier was a better option than either or a combination of them, or that anyone else who seems to be available in trade as of now would be, either. I'm also not convinced that any reliever they could get in a trade without giving up a ton would definitely be an upgrade over the pitchers they keep optioning back to AAA, like Workman, Velasquez, and Taylor.
They really upgraded spots that didn't need to be upgraded. One has to wonder if their trades were more about blocking the Sox and less about what they need which is starting pitching badly.
After Severino, who will blow past his innings high this season, they have a rookie who might be fading and a jekly and hyde Tanaka. Now if they add Sonny Gray and another innings eater type they would be a lot scarier.
We should be very thankful that they didn't take a run at Sale this off-season. Perhaps they didn't have the chips at the time to compete with the Sox offer, but you add Sale to this MFY squad and we wouldn't be talking about the division.
I'm starting to think this is more ideal than nabbing a 3B who's a FA at the end of 2017. Trading for someone like Beltre (or Freese) who's under contract through 2018 would theoretically be able to fetch us a return if Devers is ready and if the market changes over the offseason, or by next deadline. Like how A.J. Preller magically got more for Kimbrel than he gave up to the Braves a year prior.
I don't know about that. Kahnle has been ridiculously good and is a large upgrade over Clippard and a long term asset. If anything, having a bullpen that good helps mask a potential decline in their starting pitching. Good luck if you're down in the 6th. They have the best bullpen in baseball now (unless the Dodgers get Britton).
And I doubt they are finished.
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Agree. If Chavis ++ would get it done, I would be all over that. I know the LT is an issue, but they've already somewhat pushed their chips in on the next few years...it seems another smaller (relatively) bet here in terms of prospects and $$$ makes sense.
How tight are the Sox to LT threshold this year?
1/3 of Beltre is about $6M this year. In this magical world, where we could get Beltre back (and as was mentioned elsewhere, we have Beltre's 10/5 rights to add into the calculus), perhaps what gets sent to Texas gets bumped up to get Texas to throw in some money.
Side question:
Hypothetically, Texas trades Beltre plus $6million to the Sox for prospects/lottery tickets, how does the money get apportioned over this year and next?
1/3 of Beltre is about $6M this year. In this magical world, where we could get Beltre back (and as was mentioned elsewhere, we have Beltre's 10/5 rights to add into the calculus), perhaps what gets sent to Texas gets bumped up to get Texas to throw in some money.
Side question:
Hypothetically, Texas trades Beltre plus $6million to the Sox for prospects/lottery tickets, how does the money get apportioned over this year and next?
SSS mostly. Trusting 30-40 ip to establish a predictive stat seems extremely foolish to me.
Ken Rosenthal wrote on his facebook blog (still sad he's resigned to that) that Dom was apparently "thinking outside the box" for 3B options. He said Cozart and **Ian Kinsler** would be interesting outside the box suggestions for us. Both would have to make a move to a position they've never played before, but would add a great deal of experience and stability.
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
I don't know. I think in a case like Kelly's, where he's got a 4.06 xFIP (a 2.57 difference from his ERA) paired with a 0.25 HR/9 rate (0.57 lower than his career rate, 0.88 lower than last year and 0.75 lower than 2015) it can be pretty instructive.
I think his xFIP is far more likely to be what he's gonna be going forward than his FIP. Especially since his xFIP matches up with who he's been for his entire career in FIP and xFIP. His career ERA isn't much lower, either.
Me too, I like DD's operating style. He is surgical once he makes a decision and has knows elite talent, ie. Sale, Kimbrell, hopefully Carson Smith at some point, Pom has been good this year. On the downside, he does overpay. Devers and Groome are untouchable for me but so was Moncada last year and I'm good now with losing him for Sale.
I like Kinsler as a 3B option for this year, $5.5M for this year and $10M for next year. I think he could make the transition there defensively. Cozart is even more attractive with $2.65M left for this year and and a UFA in 2018.
Nothing. If Kinsler can make the move to 3B without a hitch, Devers is able to stay down in Pawtucket for the forseeable future (probably until April 20, 2018 so we save a year of service time).
Kinsler's deal has a team option but also a no trade clause so as Rosenthal said, if we're able to guarantee him that we won't exercise, then he's a free man and Devers is our guy in 2018.
Kelly is tough to gauge IMO, he started out with a flukishly low K/9 over his first 5-6 appearances. Since April 23rd he has a roughly 9 K/9 4 BB/9 .34 HR rate and a 3.10 FIP, 3.55 xFIP
I think those are more in line with the numbers you will see going forward, assuming full health. Esp considering his fastball is up 2.5MPH over last year and his sinker is up an absurd 4MPH over last year.
The list of relievers averaging 99-100MPH FB and not having success is very, very small.
Cozart is interesting, real breakout year for him at age 31. He would also give us some X insurance in case the hand continues to bother him. Nice thing about Cozart is he has no home/away split so his production isn't inflated by the CIN band box.
Scooter Gennett has just taken over the 2b job in Cincy but has also played some 3b, though how well remains to be seen.
Could be another lightning in a bottle guy to consider. He and Cozart are drinking the same kool-aid this year - .307/.357.584 wRC+141
Could be another lightning in a bottle guy to consider. He and Cozart are drinking the same kool-aid this year - .307/.357.584 wRC+141
Cozart said he's basically been taking batting lessons from Votto all offseason/year. Not a bad guy to take lessons from. Only thing that concerns me about him is sustainability. His 2017 batted ball stats are eerily identical to 2016's stats.