The sixers and building a winner

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Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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I can't tell if you're overrating Saric, or underrating Butler. I guess probably both?
Sure, Butler is a better player now, but he'll be 28 years old, has a balky knee, and makes $17.5M a year (with with an additional $58M owed through 2020).
Saric is 22 years old, has no injury history, makes $2.3M this year and is cost controlled through 2021. Saric is also taller and a better rebounder.

As Saric's age, Butler was playing 8 minutes a game and averaging 2.6 ppg. In my view, unless Butler brings you a championship this year or next, Saric is a more valuable long-term investment.
 

bowiac

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It seems more than a little disingenuous to say "Butler will be 28", but "Saric is 22". Saric will be 28 some day too (probably?). The age difference between them is 4.5 years, not 6.

It doesn't really seem salient what Butler was doing at age 22. He's historically unusual in his development at a relatively old NBA age. There's no particular reason to think Saric will follow Butler's development curve. It's like comparing Aaron Hicks at age 24 to Jose Bautista, saying when Bautista was 24, he was a scrub. Okay, but so what?

Suffice to say I think Saric is a steep dog to ever sniff Butler's jock. I'd rather have Butler over almost any time period.
 

Big John

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Suffice to say I think Saric is a steep dog to ever sniff Butler's jock. I'd rather have Butler over almost any time period.
A year ago someone might have said the same thing about Nikola Jokic, a player with strengths and weaknesses that are similar to Saric's.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Jokic is also a year younger and has an elite skill that Saric lacks. He also has better measurements. I do think people are unfairly punishing Saric for his age though. It's still his first year in the NBA and at 23, still has a season or two of growth.
 

LondonSox

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Yes he's reached what some were very dubious he was capable of in his rookie season on a bad team. Leading them no less.

That has to raise his upside some, and the odds of a long career (barring injury and he's a sixer so...). He plays an old man game today!

His passing is awesome though. And rebounding is good and effort is always there. I think his shot will improve if not be elite. He's a good player. I think he'll be a sixth man though if simmons is healthy. As I think he's a 4. But Simmons has the potential skill set to defend a three, we shall see if it happens. If simmons can defend a 3 and Saric can be above average from 3 point range they can Co exist. Esp if Embiid is there defensively. But I suspect he'll be a Manu type role.
 

Big John

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Dec 9, 2016
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Jokic is also a year younger and has an elite skill that Saric lacks. .
Well, Jokic is 10 months younger and an inch taller. As for skill sets, I think they are comparable. Both are players without elite athleticism but with a very deep understanding of the game.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Jokic is 6'10 and has a standing reach of 9'3 and a wingspan of 7'3. Saric is 6'9 with a standing reach of 9'0 and a below average wingspan of 6'10. You are looking up height only. Jokic has MUCH BETTER measurements than Saric. Saric is a good passer but not in the same stratosphere as Jokic.
 

smastroyin

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I think it's probably not just Saric himself, but the fact that people don't really appreciate how good Butler is. Dario Saric has almost zero chance of being Jimmy Butler...but Jaylen Brown's chances aren't that much higher (though the 3 years extra add a lot more swing to Brown's projection I think) Butler is a really good player, and has been better after the knee injury (I understand the idea that once you have the injury you might be prone to re-injury). I was against the rumored deals because I think the Celtics would have been giving away too much of what makes them work for them to then figure it out again mid-season (specifically Crowder, but also while Brown has hit a rookie wall Butler can't cover all of both Crowder and Brown's minutes which would mean more time for guys not as good as Brown).

The point is, Saric could improve A LOT and not be as good as Jimmy Butler.
 
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LondonSox

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I haven't seen enough of Jokic but Saric has flashed, in his rookie season, passing that I think compares to Jokic's last year. IT's highly likely Jokic is just better there, don't get me wrong.
Jokic is also BAD defensively too, and it's more harmful at C than PF/SF to have lower athleticism defensively. I'd OBVIOUSLY rather have Jokic don't get me wrong but defense matters.
Which is why Butler is significantly better than Saric will likely ever be.

But Saric sure looks like a damn good pick at 12
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think guys who make their living at the free throw line while shooting average numbers from the field get underrated in the NBA as a whole (or at least on SoSH). The only 3 guys who average more attempts at the line are Harden, Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins. If you made a clone of Butler that got to the line less but made up that difference by being a more effective 3 point shooter with higher volume, the average fan would love him a lot more even if they offered the same value. FTs aren't sexy. I think people may also underrate Jimmy Butler's overall game since he's still improving despite his age. They have a preset notion of what Jimmy Butler is. That preset notion extends to Saric too, though. I was guilty of this with Bradley Beal this year. I just assumed he was the same old Bradley Beal until a few weeks ago when I started paying closer attention.

Saric had a pretty forgettable season up until 25 games ago and people haven't adjusted their opinions yet. It's also worth noting Saric's improvement directly coincides with Embiid's injury. It's possible Embiid and Saric aren't a good fit together or it could just be natural progression considering it's his first year. You'd expect him to get better with experience.

Dario Saric
First 46: 9.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.5 steals, 1.9 turnovers on .376/.333/.791 shooting in 23.6 minutes per.
Last 25: 17.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.0 steals, 2.6 turnovers on .456/.311/.782 shooting in 30.6 minutes per.

In an extra 7 minutes, he almost doubled his production everywhere except rebounds. 25 games isn't a huge sample, but it's not exactly small either. It's 1/3 of an NBA season. There is a gap between Saric and Butler but if you are somewhat high on Saric and low on Butler, that gap is minimal/trivial.
 

tims4wins

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Question on free throw volume: while it seems like a nice skill to have, isn't that something that would diminish as he ages, as opposed to being a good 3 point shooter?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I haven't seen enough of Jokic but Saric has flashed, in his rookie season, passing that I think compares to Jokic's last year. IT's highly likely Jokic is just better there, don't get me wrong.
Jokic is also BAD defensively too, and it's more harmful at C than PF/SF to have lower athleticism defensively. I'd OBVIOUSLY rather have Jokic don't get me wrong but defense matters.
Which is why Butler is significantly better than Saric will likely ever be.

But Saric sure looks like a damn good pick at 12
I'd think athleticism would be easier to hide at the C spot but I guess it depends on the teams you are playing. The C position has a lot of stiffs like Kelly Olynyk. Then again, that's why the C's need a rim protector/rebounder. I do wonder if the Nuggets should have kept Nurkic (16 games with Portland: 14.3 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.0 blocks, 1.4 steals in 29.5 minutes) instead of trading from Plumlee but they wanted to make a push for the playoffs this year and already have a ton of 22 and under talent. Given Nurkic and Jokic's age, I'd have given them more time to see if they can play together.

You did mention another difference between the two in that Jokic is a PF/C while Saric is more a SF/PF. Jokic also has the reach and wing to block shots and disrupt passing lanes. Whether he actually learns to use his length to do so, who knows but he could become passable. I'm not sure if Jokic's passing ability is far improved from last year or he's just allowed more freedom but I'd be judging Jokic on who he is today, not last year prior to his breakout season. I haven't seen much of Saric but from what I have, he doesn't have the vision Jokic has. Even if he did, his passing wouldn't be elite from the SF/PF spot like Jokic's is from C/PF.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Question on free throw volume: while it seems like a nice skill to have, isn't that something that would diminish as he ages, as opposed to being a good 3 point shooter?
Probably, but by that time he would only be a role player anyway. His drop off won't be for another 4-5 years. Of course you'd rather the role player be a better 3 point shooter but they aren't going to decide your fate. He should also continue to get to the line, but only at 75-80% of the rate he used to. Also, some players get to the line less depending on the other players around them. Paul Pierce saw a significant drop in FTs when Ray Allen and KG came to town. Jimmy Butler in Boston probably sees IT4 and Butler take less FTs. DeMarcus Cousins in Sactown averaged 10.0 FTs a game. In NO, he's at 6.4 because of Anthony Davis and partly because he's playing on the perimeter more (23.8% of his FGA were 3s in Sactown, in NO it's 28.4%). Excluding NO, only Toronto has 2 players in the top 20 in FT attempts with DeRozan at 8.6 attempts (6th) and Lowry at 6.1 (18th). For reference, IT4 leads the Celtics at 8.5 while Marcus Smart is 2nd at 3.1. If IT4 wasn't on this team, I'm guessing Marcus Smart would average close to 8 FTs a game. Once Jaylen develops more, he'll be a guy who lives at the line too.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/maggeco01.html dropped off at age 32, out of the league one year later.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/iversal01.html dropped off at age 33, out of the league two years later.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/o/onealsh01.html dropped off at age 32, in the league awhile after but not a comp for Butler.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html dropped off at age 30 but then had an upward tick then derailed by injury.
 

bowiac

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A year ago someone might have said the same thing about Nikola Jokic, a player with strengths and weaknesses that are similar to Saric's.
The only people who should be surprised by Jokic's season this year are people who weren't paying attention last year. Jokic was a statistical darling as a draftee, then put up a huge season as a 20 year old rookie - it just went unnoticed since he only played 22 minutes per game.

Jokic ranked 9th in RPM last year for instance. Not 9th among rookies - 9th overall in the NBA. That's not a weird plus/minus thing either - pure box score metrics like BPM saw he looked like a potential superstar too. His BPM was 4.8 (better than Towns).

Saric meanwhile ranks 70th in RPM among power forwards, and 283rd overall. This is also not a weird plus/minus thing - he's at -1.8 in BPM, which is basically replacement level.

Jokic and Saric aren't on the same planet. Jokic is better (and was better last year) at literally every aspect of the game, and is elite at a couple of skills. Big man passing in particular is super valuable, in that it's largely "value added", as opposed to just the result of having the ball a lot. (Same goes for projecting draftees btw - big man assist counts matter a lot more than PG assist counts)
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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The only people who should be surprised by Jokic's season this year are people who weren't paying attention last year. Jokic was a statistical darling as a draftee, then put up a huge season as a 20 year old rookie - it just went unnoticed since he only played 22 minutes per game.

Jokic ranked 9th in RPM last year for instance. Not 9th among rookies - 9th overall in the NBA. That's not a weird plus/minus thing either - pure box score metrics like BPM saw he looked like a potential superstar too. His BPM was 4.8 (better than Towns).

Saric meanwhile ranks 70th in RPM among power forwards, and 283rd overall. This is also not a weird plus/minus thing - he's at -1.8 in BPM, which is basically replacement level.

Jokic and Saric aren't on the same planet. Jokic is better (and was better last year) at literally every aspect of the game, and is elite at a couple of skills. Big man passing in particular is super valuable, in that it's largely "value added", as opposed to just the result of having the ball a lot. (Same goes for projecting draftees btw - big man assist counts matter a lot more than PG assist counts)
You know what is ridiculous with Jokic? He's only playing 27.3 minutes per game this year. 5.6 minutes more per game than last year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Richaun Holmes continues to look like a legit 20+ minute player. A 6'10 PF/C with average length who can rebound, block shots and hit the 3. 24 games, 26.3 minutes .588/.380/.761, 13.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.3 blocks. 19-51 from 3 in those 24 games. 27-72 from 3 for the year. In college he was 30-85, .353. Still only 23 years old.

On the flip end, Dario Saric has looked awful for a few weeks. 8 games, 27.3 minutes, .363/.214/.750 13.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 3.0 turnovers.
 
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LondonSox

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Richaun Holmes continues to look like a legit 20+ minute player. A 6'10 PF/C with average length who can rebound, block shots and hit the 3. 24 games, 26.3 minutes .588/.380/.761, 13.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.3 blocks. 19-51 from 3 in those 24 games. 27-72 from 3 for the year. In college he was 30-85, .353. Still only 23 years old.

On the flip end, Dario Saric has looked awful for a few weeks. 8 games, 27.3 minutes, .363/.214/.750 13.0 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 3.0 turnovers.
Saric has plantar fasciitis. No idea why he's even playing he's been on a 24 minute restriction.
 

sezwho

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Serious question: are the Sixers trying to win next year? Assuming the comments about Simmons being the PG aren't just a smoke screen, draft night could offer an answer. A wing would be the way to go, but if they get a 1/2 pick it seems consensus Ball or Fultz . Clearly they won't draft for need, so a trade sure would make sense if they want to win instead of just acquiring another asset.
 

Devizier

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Question on free throw volume: while it seems like a nice skill to have, isn't that something that would diminish as he ages, as opposed to being a good 3 point shooter?
I mean, pretty much every guard or wing worth talking about in the 90s and 00s made their living at the line, so I'm going to say no. Guys who were/are especially prolific at it (Iverson, Pierce, Wade) kept it up well into their thirties.

Some guys changed their game as they got older (Reggie Miller, Vince Carter) but that's less common than you'd think.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Saric has plantar fasciitis. No idea why he's even playing he's been on a 24 minute restriction.
Right? Their season is over and they have a pretty good idea what Saric brings to the table. Why risk further injury when you're already bitten by them?
 

LondonSox

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So bump.

I mean to go from literally jrue Holliday and nothing in 4 years to
Embiid
Fultz
Simmons
Saric
Tlc
Holmes
Korkmaz
Covington
Sauce
Etc
Plus at least one extra first pick plus all their own and a load of seconds oh and okafor I guess

I mean hard to argue it got talent. Remains to be seen what they do with it but yeah add a wing like KCP and happy days

Still remains very key if embiid can stay healthy of course. He is the only proven stud so far
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Read a fluff piece about Simmons being cleared for full court activity and how he "scored 34 points in a pickup game" back home in Australia. Something didn't sound right as you don't track individual pints in pickup games so I had to see for myself. I'm pretty sure 5 SoSHers could be gathered to provide better comp. Oh my......enjoy boys and girls!

 

LondonSox

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I just think it's funny that you turn up for a pickup game (though a pickup game with team jerseys and score keeping and crowds?) And Ben freaking Simmons is on the other side.

Lol I mean good luck!

And yes it's a dumb story past, Ben Simmons is home catches up with his buddy, buddy asked him to play with his local buddies in the rec league. Ultimate ringer?
 

LondonSox

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By the way the plan appears to be

Extend Covington in November, using the 15 mm of cap space to front load the deal and keep the cap hit as light as possible in future years.

Next year you have max space and potential to sign JJ if it all works out.

Remains very interesting to see how embiid plays out.
If he offers a discount maybe the do a sub max extension early. If not they can just see what happens and always have the option to match.

Looks like they have the ability to have Simmons, embiid, fultz, Covington a max free agent (when limited teams have space) as well as saric and maybe redick. Plus either kings or Lakers (or both if they were number one or Lakers is 6+ and kings is number one)

It's a pretty great situation but we shall see
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
Don't get too attached to a 5'9" guard if one comes your way...

Some Sixers content I guess; it will be interesting to see if there is any chatter of a big name free agent showing interest in Philly if the team starts to gel this year again. Has any recently been referenced to being interested in Philly besides Holiday or Lowry? They are in a great situation to get their hands on one.
 

LondonSox

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We'll both of those two had Philly links

There has of course been LeBron chatter but that seems a bit much.

Honestly it's unclear exactly what they need. Ignoring overlap of positions
PG fultz, bayless, TJ
SG redick, sauce, TLC
SF Covington, anderson, korkmaz,
Pf Simmons, saric, amir
Cool embiid, Holmes, okafor

Bolden stashed as well

There's no obvious giant screaming need so they should be able to be opportunistic.
If tj continues to improve or starts hitting threes (which is his goal) than pg looks fine. If not they maybe this is an area still.

The main issues are redick and amir replacements. But redick could easily extend, and has hinted that could be the plan
A big ... Well bolden plus the draft is full of bigs.

So if I had to guess it would be a wing. Bradley had been mentioned, smart could be a nice defensive piece but not a max type.

I would say they'll pitch the big names see if anyone wants to lead the kids in the weaker east.
If KCP has a good year that could be a guy too I guess.

Bradley or KCP type seem plausible. If embiid is hurt again, maybe a big becomes a priority.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If he actually changed his release point on his FT to what we see on the video below, well, he should probably leave the coaching to those who can coach.

 

HomeRunBaker

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I have no idea what is going on with Fultz but he never had reservations in getting shots up at Washington at over 5 there's per game where he made over 41% of his attempts. Now I've never seen the elite upside or the "consensus #1 talent" but I can't imagine shooting the ball is going to be a huge issue for him. This is bizarre that he may be this messed up in the head on his psychological approach to the game. It seems like he is "thinking" on the floor in those clips. Basketball is an instinctual game.......when you begin thinking out of the floor is when you really get in trouble.
 

BigSoxFan

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I have no idea what is going on with Fultz but he never had reservations in getting shots up at Washington at over 5 there's per game where he made over 41% of his attempts. Now I've never seen the elite upside or the "consensus #1 talent" but I can't imagine shooting the ball is going to be a huge issue for him. This is bizarre that he may be this messed up in the head on his psychological approach to the game. It seems like he is "thinking" on the floor in those clips. Basketball is an instinctual game.......when you begin thinking out of the floor is when you really get in trouble.
Yup. That lower release looked awful and was almost a push shot. I'm sure Brown will address this but, man, that video would scare me a bit if I were a Sixers fan.
 
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