2015 Broncos-Peyton's Retirement Party Sunday 1/24/16 3PM ET
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Do we think that Oz will be better then Schaub?
We keep saying that "oohhh what if Oz makes everyone forget about Manning!!"
What are the odds of Oz even being competent? Beyond the vague idea that he "Fits Kubiaks system" better then Elway.
Granted if he is "Competent" (which I guess would be Trent Dilfer circa 2000 Level production) that defense can be dangerous.
But I keep going back to "can he even be competent".
3 outcomes....None of them great.
1. He sucks. Manning needs to come back and as M490 points out.....Manning and his arm is not a fan of the Starks of Winterfell.
2. He is good. Manning media shit storm ensues.
3. He is ok or just good enough to win (ala Tebow in '11 albeit in a different way) in the regular season but will be exposed in the Playoffs.
We keep saying that "oohhh what if Oz makes everyone forget about Manning!!"
What are the odds of Oz even being competent? Beyond the vague idea that he "Fits Kubiaks system" better then Elway.
Granted if he is "Competent" (which I guess would be Trent Dilfer circa 2000 Level production) that defense can be dangerous.
But I keep going back to "can he even be competent".
3 outcomes....None of them great.
1. He sucks. Manning needs to come back and as M490 points out.....Manning and his arm is not a fan of the Starks of Winterfell.
2. He is good. Manning media shit storm ensues.
3. He is ok or just good enough to win (ala Tebow in '11 albeit in a different way) in the regular season but will be exposed in the Playoffs.
I don't think anybody should expect him to be particularly good - meaning an average-to-above-average starting QB. The only QBs drafted in the second round since 1994 who have clearly met that standard over a substantial period of time have been Drew Brees and Andy Dalton, although you could argue that Kaepernick, Jake Plummer, and Kordell Stewart were each average or above average for a couple seasons (and Derek Carr looks like he might join that Brees/Dalton group eventually). Scenario #2 is probably the least likely.
Scenario #1 is definitely possible but I would bet against it simply because Osweiler has decent physical tools, has spent 3.5 years in the league learning from Manning, and has been at least competent enough in practice that a Denver team in win-now mode with a senior citizen starter hasn't looked for another backup QB solution. I'm not setting the bar high here but I would be surprised if Osweiler massively sucks, like a Jimmy Clausen or Brian Brohm.
Scenario #3 therefore seems the most likely. He'll probably be in the bottom third or quarter of NFL starting QBs but not a guy that just lights your chances of winning on fire the moment he steps on the field. That's not particularly impressive. But that's not necessarily worse than Manning circa 2015. And, injury excuses notwithstanding, its pretty unlikely that Manning is going to get meaningfully better. The weather will get colder and even if his seemingly minor foot injury improves, he's going to get banged up in some other way as that's life in the NFL as a 39-year-old QB.
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He doesn't have to be good, just better than Manning right? And that is currently an extremely low bar.
But this isnt a flow chart yes-no/Better-Not Better.
He could be better the Manning and still suck bad enough to ruin Denvers chances week to week. Or he could be "the same as Manning" and sink their chances week to week. Or he could oscillate between the 2 and still put the defense in bad positions and lose games.
Week 2 QB Rating of 86.9 produced a 7 point win against a (at the time) terrible Chiefs team.
Week 3 QBR 101.7 Produced a 12 point win against a pitiful Detroit team.
Week 4 QBR 68.9 Produced a 3 point win.
Week 8 (Indy) a 78.6 Produced a loss.
Would Oz produce better?
Another quick thought.....is there a way to determine "if a QB Rating of<75 (or 80 or whatever) it leads to a lost 75% (or whatever) of the time"
There's a way, but it's somewhat time intensive unless someone else has already done the research. Running some queries on pro-football reference, since 2010, QBs with a passer rating of 75 or less are 288-854-1 (25.2% win percentage).. There may be some double counting in there if there were multiple crappy QBs playing in the game. Couldn't figure out how to eliminate the duplicates.
Around The NFL @AroundTheNFL 2h2 hours ago
Peyton Manning hasn't attended meetings nor discussed Sunday's game plan with Brock Osweiler, @JamesPalmerTV reports http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000583783/article/manning-not-involved-as-broncos-prepare-for-bears?campaign=Twitter_atn…
Good teammate
Peyton Manning hasn't attended meetings nor discussed Sunday's game plan with Brock Osweiler, @JamesPalmerTV reports http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000583783/article/manning-not-involved-as-broncos-prepare-for-bears?campaign=Twitter_atn…
Good teammate
The article says that Kubiak wants Manning to focus on getting healthy, so it's not clear at all that he's doing anything other than following his coach's instructions.
Unless he's bed-ridden, or needs to be strapped 16 hours a day to a passive-motion machine, or some other really restraining treatment, I have a hard time understanding how a few hours a day helping Brock get ready would upset his "focus". If Kubiak has really requested he not participate in helping Osweiler get ready, my guess is that it's because he knows he wouldn't be a help. Which screams "shitty attitude". Or Kubiak is planning on Manning NOT coming back, in which case it's just easier to have him out of the way, which might also explain said attitude. Or Manning has just made it clear he won't help because he just doesn't want to.
I'm with j-man here, I think you have to conclude it's not a good sign.
Yeah, that's possible, though this doesn't quite have the right vibe. The reporter's (James Palmer) main point in the video seemed to be that he had talked to a couple dozen Broncos players, none of whom actually know "the specifics of Manning's injury", but all assume it's foot-related. That one strikes me as a little different than the Pats approach to a non-discussion of the issue.
If it were the typical "insider" BS that we've learned to expect, the reporter could easily have said "sources inside the team tell me..." etc, etc.
This may be unrelated, but I've come to the realization that Peyton Manning is an ass. Or at least was an ass 10 years ago.
This type of behavior is perfectly in-line with the spoiled, childish behavior he displayed when he violated the settlement on the sexual harassment lawsuit from that Tennessee trainer.
This type of behavior is perfectly in-line with the spoiled, childish behavior he displayed when he violated the settlement on the sexual harassment lawsuit from that Tennessee trainer.
It's just as likely that Kubiak is covering for Manning to avoid the inevitable shitstorm. Unless Manning is in traction, it does seem a bit weird [/King]
The REAL story, from the most reputable football writer in the business today: Peyton is faking his injury to avoid the Patriots. You'd better put sunglasses on before reading this take, it's so hot it could permanently damage your eyes:
"But my second, and probably more correct reaction after I started to think what people would be more likley to click on, is that this whole injury nonsense is without a doubt just a ruse to avoid having to play against the Patriots in two weeks time. Mannings been running scared from Big Bad Brady Belichick and Bob for the past 13 years and he's avoiding them like the kid with asthma avoids Presidental Physical Fitness test day in school. (I Won National Award several times by the way not to brag. V-sit allways got me). The Pats have Peytons number so hard that youd need a graphing calculator and a box of adderall to figure out exactly how much space they have taken up inside that enormous head of his.
A foot injury? Yeah ok you allmost had me going on that one. Peytons decided he'd rather limp into the lockeroom than limp into the playoffs knowing that New England already kicked his ass once this year. Manning knows that the Broncos could beat the Bears next week with a bag full of human hair under center, so he's not really hurting the team by letting Osweiler get a warmup game. It provides a buffer zone between now and the New England game, so less woke columnists wont catch on to the fact that he's faking the foot injury deal just to avoid the Pats. Yep, old number 18 is looking like half the man he use to be, and he's turned into Wide 9- Matt Stafford the Cowardly Lion."
"But my second, and probably more correct reaction after I started to think what people would be more likley to click on, is that this whole injury nonsense is without a doubt just a ruse to avoid having to play against the Patriots in two weeks time. Mannings been running scared from Big Bad Brady Belichick and Bob for the past 13 years and he's avoiding them like the kid with asthma avoids Presidental Physical Fitness test day in school. (I Won National Award several times by the way not to brag. V-sit allways got me). The Pats have Peytons number so hard that youd need a graphing calculator and a box of adderall to figure out exactly how much space they have taken up inside that enormous head of his.
A foot injury? Yeah ok you allmost had me going on that one. Peytons decided he'd rather limp into the lockeroom than limp into the playoffs knowing that New England already kicked his ass once this year. Manning knows that the Broncos could beat the Bears next week with a bag full of human hair under center, so he's not really hurting the team by letting Osweiler get a warmup game. It provides a buffer zone between now and the New England game, so less woke columnists wont catch on to the fact that he's faking the foot injury deal just to avoid the Pats. Yep, old number 18 is looking like half the man he use to be, and he's turned into Wide 9- Matt Stafford the Cowardly Lion."
That "article" was harder to get through than a pelvic exam. And I seriously doubt Manning's ego would allow him to bow out of facing Brady/Belichick, especially with that opportunity for that defense to shoulder a lot of the burden.
Plus Kubiak also said that Manning's MRI on his ribs came back completely clean. So the only rehab he has to focus on is the plantar fascia, which probably mainly requires rest and some occasional heat or ice treatment. This isn't a major injury. I don't see any inherent conflict between participating in team meetings (or attending the game) and getting adequate treatment. Just this season QBs like Roethlisberger, Romo, and Luck have had worse injuries and yet been heavily involved with their teams during their layoffs. We'll see what happens but this definitely isn't a typical way for a QB with a short term injury to act in the aftermath.
Someone in my fantasy league recently asked the entire league if they had a QB to trade.
I suggested picking up Stafford as a FA and included that picture. I suppose it wasn't queued up but I am a firm believer in cross pollination of life and this little corner of the internets we call D'Urbersvilles.
Okay. Uncle. He's a schmuck. That article posted upthread has some sickening details. What a jerk.
Jesus Dude--the first sentence of the article is: We're required to remind you that these strong takes are SATIRE.
6. I think Eli Manning would still breastfeed if given the chance. Just a hunch.
That line made me spit out my coffee. Hilarious.
I had a different reaction. I just nodded my head and said "yup, sounds about right".
Kubiak made a note on Monday when he announced that Manning was out this week that "I'll talk to him again next Monday".
Manning was quoted as saying he offered Brock any help he needed but would be one of those "extra voices".
That same day Brock said Manning has been a big help his whole career.
I think what we're seeing here is Kubiak (no doubt with Elway's backing) sensing that Manning himself is best served by getting the hell away from game prep for a week (and beyond?). In addition, I have a feeling they felt Osweiler was going to need a huge amount of attention this week and the offense was going to need a lot of work practicing plays that favor Osweiler's strengths... So getting Manning out of the picture for a week would potentially help them all focus.
Also, here's a very rosy breakdown of Brock's abilities by a scout on NFL.com:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000582906/article/brock-osweiler-can-make-denver-broncos-offense-more-potent
No clue how good this dude is at scouting or prognosticating, but if that's just halfway right I'll be pretty stoked.
Manning was quoted as saying he offered Brock any help he needed but would be one of those "extra voices".
That same day Brock said Manning has been a big help his whole career.
I think what we're seeing here is Kubiak (no doubt with Elway's backing) sensing that Manning himself is best served by getting the hell away from game prep for a week (and beyond?). In addition, I have a feeling they felt Osweiler was going to need a huge amount of attention this week and the offense was going to need a lot of work practicing plays that favor Osweiler's strengths... So getting Manning out of the picture for a week would potentially help them all focus.
Also, here's a very rosy breakdown of Brock's abilities by a scout on NFL.com:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000582906/article/brock-osweiler-can-make-denver-broncos-offense-more-potent
No clue how good this dude is at scouting or prognosticating, but if that's just halfway right I'll be pretty stoked.
Bucky Brooks is pretty good, but I think that write up is a lot less rosy than it appears to a Broncos fan looking for reassurance. This is the second paragraph:
On the plus side, Brooks comped Osweiler to Matt Schaub, who was perfectly cromulent in Kubiak's system. But the key is the bold - he will need time to develop, he lacks game experience, he hasn't run a complicated offense, he played poorly in big games.
Brooks gets paid to write stuff that gets read, and Broncos fans will read, and like, what's in that piece. But to critical readers, that 2nd paragraph is Brooks's real opinion.
The remainder of the piece is speculation based on preseason action, which is about as useful as ... well preseason action. Yeah, Osweiler has shown something in preseason action and garbage time.
On the plus side, Brooks comped Osweiler to Matt Schaub, who was perfectly cromulent in Kubiak's system. But the key is the bold - he will need time to develop, he lacks game experience, he hasn't run a complicated offense, he played poorly in big games.
Brooks gets paid to write stuff that gets read, and Broncos fans will read, and like, what's in that piece. But to critical readers, that 2nd paragraph is Brooks's real opinion.
Manning is not going to Chicago to be with the team. Staying in Denver to work on rehabbing
Also, the Peyton leaving Osweiller alone story is true ... and planned by the team
'Manning made a brief appearance on the field during practice Friday to chat with coaches, Kubiak said, though the five-time MVP has largely left backup quarterback Brock Osweiler alone this week. That, too, was part of the plan for managing Manning all week while allowing Osweiler to act like the starter and allow his teammates to see him as such.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/broncos/2015/11/20/peyton-manning-no-travel-chicago-bears-demarcus-ware/76128852/
Also, the Peyton leaving Osweiller alone story is true ... and planned by the team
'Manning made a brief appearance on the field during practice Friday to chat with coaches, Kubiak said, though the five-time MVP has largely left backup quarterback Brock Osweiler alone this week. That, too, was part of the plan for managing Manning all week while allowing Osweiler to act like the starter and allow his teammates to see him as such.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/broncos/2015/11/20/peyton-manning-no-travel-chicago-bears-demarcus-ware/76128852/
LaCanfora saying Manning likely will not play for at least 2 weeks, that team wants him back and practicing before he starts and that there's a chance he's done.
http://mweb.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/25383965/osweiler-likely-to-start-at-least-twice-mannings-starting-role-in-danger
http://mweb.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/25383965/osweiler-likely-to-start-at-least-twice-mannings-starting-role-in-danger
Reporting windchill from there of -4 half an hour ago.Good thing Manning is out this week - high in Chicago today is 29!
Good luck Brockstar!
Didn't see the game, you'll have to tell me how he looked. Was going to say that Peyton's time on the bench would be based upon how Brock looked and if they managed to beat the Bears. Well they did that. If Peyton sits 4 games and they split, I think that would be enough to feel good about the 3 seed.
Osweiler himself looked fine: executed the Kubiak rollout well; hit the short throws in the flat well; threw the ball away when needed. The pass protection was often shaky— Brock was sacked 5 times— although part of this might have been Chicago not respecting his ability to go down the field. In short, he performed very well in game manager mode, but didn't complete a pass that travelled more than 20 yards in the air IIRC. Have to believe that BB will take away the comfortable stuff and force him to beat the Pats down the field.
Osweiler made a lot of easy throws but he also handled the offense fine and, most importantly, didn't turn it over. His pocket presence is pretty crappy and he didn't show much capacity to do anything outside the structure of the relatively simple plays that were called for him. But what he was asked to do, he did very well and didn't make any major mistakes. And I think his ability to operate under center and bigger arm (even if not really utilized) probably had something to do, at least at the margin, with Denver running the ball so effectively. This was the first game this season in which Denver had no picks, the highest passer rating of any game this season, and also probably Denver's most successful game all season running the ball. I'm not sure whether Osweiler is really any good but I certainly wouldn't be rushing to go back to Peyton.
My guess is that Manning's mysterious foot injury turns into a month-long thing so that Kubiak has time to evaluate Osweiler over a larger sample before having to make a definitive call on Osweiler v. "Healthy" Peyton.
My guess is that Manning's mysterious foot injury turns into a month-long thing so that Kubiak has time to evaluate Osweiler over a larger sample before having to make a definitive call on Osweiler v. "Healthy" Peyton.
I hate to be the type of fan who whines about the refs, but coming into today the Bears had the second most penalty yards in the NFL and today they had zero penalty yards. Von Miller was held a dozen times, Osweiler got hit well after a slide (a flag that would have sealed the game but was left in-thrown) Bennett committed egregious OPI several times and was rewarded not just by getting away with it, but the defender got flagged on top of it.
Denver deserved most of their flags, but add in non-shitty refs and that game was probably won by two TDs.
Oh well, at least they came away with the win.
Brock played within himself and executed well enough for success. The Running game had its best game yet and he utilized his TEs more than Manning did all season combined, it seemed. There was less play action than I thought you would see, but maybe that will come. He took a few sacks that happened due to holding the ball too long and had to use a few time outs that would have been better to avoid, but that's par for the course with a youngster (I predicted this late last week).
I'm very happy with the game.
We're on to NE!
Denver deserved most of their flags, but add in non-shitty refs and that game was probably won by two TDs.
Oh well, at least they came away with the win.
Brock played within himself and executed well enough for success. The Running game had its best game yet and he utilized his TEs more than Manning did all season combined, it seemed. There was less play action than I thought you would see, but maybe that will come. He took a few sacks that happened due to holding the ball too long and had to use a few time outs that would have been better to avoid, but that's par for the course with a youngster (I predicted this late last week).
I'm very happy with the game.
We're on to NE!
very very happy with brock the afc west shouild be pissed going foward as it looks like denver shouild be afc west champs most years
no sanders ware awful refs i said on mhr about 4 mos ago that brock with 16-20 stats couild be a top 10-12 qb NE is clear better in 15 and plob 16 but if denver can keep most of the D together watch out in 2017
no sanders ware awful refs i said on mhr about 4 mos ago that brock with 16-20 stats couild be a top 10-12 qb NE is clear better in 15 and plob 16 but if denver can keep most of the D together watch out in 2017
Like I've said before, I really go love j-man's optimism. It's infectious! Brock playing big mistake free can make a huge difference to this team as long as the defense can hold up.
He also made a hell of a tackle on the goal line.
I watched the whole game. Thought he played pretty well. MMSnowplow gave a pretty fair assessment.
I watched the whole game. Thought he played pretty well. MMSnowplow gave a pretty fair assessment.
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