I love the idea of Peyton deciding to come back for one more year to play with Cleveland so he can pursue the wins record!
2015 Broncos-Peyton's Retirement Party Sunday 1/24/16 3PM ET
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Nope. After 2011, Manning had a career rating of 94.9, Brady had a career rating of 96.4. It's easy to forget, but Manning was tremendous his first three years in Denver, at least in the regular season (107.8 from 2012-2014). Over that same time span, Brady was statistically good, not great (94.4 from 2012-2014).
They've gone back and forth, and it's not all that difficult to see how Manning passes Brady again: If Manning never plays another down, how certain are you that Brady will stay above 96 from now until the end of his career? Because that's what it will take for him to finish above Manning for career QB rating. At some point, Brady will decline, and the %'s can fall faster than you think. Hell, Manning's career rating has dropped a full percentage point after just 9 games.
It's dropped a full percentage point because he is putting up 67.6 rating through those 9 games. I don't ever see Brady playing that badly, nor BB allowing him to.
The way the rules are set up now, 96 isn't all that hard anymore. Cutler, McCown and Hoyer are all in that range. Short of a debilitating injury like Manning's neck, I see no reason to think that Brady can't maintain a level of production of Jay Cutler for at least 3-4 more years and I think thats modest.
I could be being optimistic, but I genuinely see him being able to play another 2-3 years before his decline even starts to be noticeable. That may be fan boyish and I kind of chuckle when he says he's going to play ten more years, but he's putting a career year at 38 and I see a QB who is actually somehow getting more mobile and not suffering any kind of decline. I don't ever envision him having a year as bad as Manning's but that might be wish casting I guess.
The way the rules are set up now, 96 isn't all that hard anymore. Cutler, McCown and Hoyer are all in that range. Short of a debilitating injury like Manning's neck, I see no reason to think that Brady can't maintain a level of production of Jay Cutler for at least 3-4 more years and I think thats modest.
I could be being optimistic, but I genuinely see him being able to play another 2-3 years before his decline even starts to be noticeable. That may be fan boyish and I kind of chuckle when he says he's going to play ten more years, but he's putting a career year at 38 and I see a QB who is actually somehow getting more mobile and not suffering any kind of decline. I don't ever envision him having a year as bad as Manning's but that might be wish casting I guess.
As long as Brady doesn't have something significant happen to him like what happened to Peyton and his neck, there is a chance he could keep going for 2-3 more years at this pace. But, really, it's likely two more years, not three. At some point, the brutality of the NFL and age will slow Brady down. Age 40 seems like the place this will begin.
Going into this season (heck, going into this week's games!) Manning had a higher passer rating than Brady, even though Brady's rating was better both indoors and outdoors.
I ran this fact by my friends, and they were a bit befuddled at how this could be. But it was true.
I saw this on another board:
Players in NFL history that have had a league-adjusted passer rating of 70 or less and over 300 passing attempts in a single season. Nice company Peyton.
Players in NFL history that have had a league-adjusted passer rating of 70 or less and over 300 passing attempts in a single season. Nice company Peyton.
I also doubt that he'll ever have a season as bad as Peyton is putting together, (even in his brutal first four games last, his passer rating was 79.1). My point is that it's still likely that he drops back below Peyton before he retires. If Brady plays another 5 years averaging 94.4 (which was his passer rating from 2012-2014), I think we'd all take those numbers and years right now, but that would drop him back behind Peyton.
Which is fine.
Which is fine.
Interesting that 3 of the 10 guys on that list were drafted either #1 or #2 overall (Manning, Testaverde, Leaf)
It makes sense. A team has to have invested a lot in a qb to give him a long enough leash to make that list.
No, it's not likely, and randomly averaging 2012-2014 is cherry picking to the extreme. (he's also 102.7 since 2007.) None of us would actually be happy if TB was putting up his 2013 numbers (particularly his October 2013 numbers) this year. He'd be the 20th ranked passer in the league. Things have changed, and 96.6 isn't what it used to be.
If Tom Brady retires with a passer rating below 96.6. I will donate $1,000 to the Jimmy Fund. You are welcome to pledge a donation of your choosing to the other side.
Rare that I even chuckle at anything from the Onion nowadays, but enjoyed this
Aging Peyton Manning Now Forced To Take Field With Assistance Dog
Aging Peyton Manning Now Forced To Take Field With Assistance Dog
I like this - I'm going to use this as my example of Simpson's paradox in future.
Exactly. Which is why we need a stat like era+ or ops+, a QBR+ or something, that takes into account the stadium and era in which these guys played.
I'm starting to believe that the Broncos winning all of those close games earlier in the season may have actually had a negative impact on Elway's multi-year plan for the franchise moving forward. Obviously winning games is always a good thing, and you wont' complain about that. But winning also makes it almost impossible to make a switch at the QB position, even though a switch might have been warranted given how poorly Manning played in in like 5 of the first 7 games this season.
And the Bronco's brain-trust, which almost certainly is planning on moving forward without Manning following this season, must have been itching for an opportunity to begin a true evaluation of the potential QB heir on the roster. Having Osweiler go into free agency with no opportunity to show his abilities in real game situations seems incredibly risky. If he sucks, but you're afraid of losing him, you might overpay for the next Weeden, or not feel the need to pursue real alternatives in the draft or free agency. And if he's competent and you don't know it, then you just let a potential franchise cornerstone get away. So you have to get some feel for his performance baseline so you can make the right decision next year, especially for a franchise with some pretty large decisions coming up (notably Von Miller's presumed mega-extension). And the more games he starts, the bigger sample you'll have to draw on. You have to believe the decision to rest him came from Elway, who wants to know what he is working with long term here, and knows that Peyton isn't part of the plan for his franchise moving forward.
So what's really surprising is that the Bronco's didn't rest Manning for a game already. Maybe that falls on Kubiak not wanting to upset a locker room that feels it's good enough to win a championship now and is loaded at a number of positions. Or it could just be Manning playing well enough to keep the job, and a lack of opportunity (it's not like they were going to sit him against the Packers or Colts, no matter how poorly he played). But unless Osweiler looks truly terrible, I have a tough time believing that he won't be the QB for at least the next couple of weeks.
And the Bronco's brain-trust, which almost certainly is planning on moving forward without Manning following this season, must have been itching for an opportunity to begin a true evaluation of the potential QB heir on the roster. Having Osweiler go into free agency with no opportunity to show his abilities in real game situations seems incredibly risky. If he sucks, but you're afraid of losing him, you might overpay for the next Weeden, or not feel the need to pursue real alternatives in the draft or free agency. And if he's competent and you don't know it, then you just let a potential franchise cornerstone get away. So you have to get some feel for his performance baseline so you can make the right decision next year, especially for a franchise with some pretty large decisions coming up (notably Von Miller's presumed mega-extension). And the more games he starts, the bigger sample you'll have to draw on. You have to believe the decision to rest him came from Elway, who wants to know what he is working with long term here, and knows that Peyton isn't part of the plan for his franchise moving forward.
So what's really surprising is that the Bronco's didn't rest Manning for a game already. Maybe that falls on Kubiak not wanting to upset a locker room that feels it's good enough to win a championship now and is loaded at a number of positions. Or it could just be Manning playing well enough to keep the job, and a lack of opportunity (it's not like they were going to sit him against the Packers or Colts, no matter how poorly he played). But unless Osweiler looks truly terrible, I have a tough time believing that he won't be the QB for at least the next couple of weeks.
singaporesoxfan gave us the name of this, Simpson's Paradox, and I thank him for that. I came across this once, was fascinated by it, and quickly forgot the name.
Here's the Wikipedia link - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson's_paradox
Not a true paradox, but nonetheless a fascinating phenomenon. One of the keys seem to be that the overall number be some kind of composite measure of different conditions (indoor/outdoor), where different data populations (Manning vs Brady) experienced the conditions to different extents.
It's sort of like saying the average temperature is lower on the coast than inland, but it's warmer on the coast on rainy days and warmer on the coast on sunny days. This could happen if rainy days are colder and the coast gets a lot more rainy days than there are inland.
The "paradox" would go away if the average was weighted so that the rainy/sunny contributions to the overall number were weighted so as to be constant, e.g., a meta-average of the average rainy temperature and the average sunny temperature.
I had not ever heard of that until now. Thanks for the info.
Real simple example...
Smith
1 indoor game: 105.7 rating
9 outdoor games: 97.6 rating
TOTAL RATING: 98.4
Jones
9 indoor games: 100.9 rating
1 outdoor game: 95.5 rating
TOTAL RATING: 100.4
Smith is better than Jones both indoor (105.7 vs 100.9), and outdoor (97.6 vs 95.5), but because Jones has played so many more games indoors relative to Smith, his overall rating ends up being better.
But clearly, Smith is a better QB despite Jones' better overall career passer rating.
538 article on Peyton as GOAT. Then be sure to check those comments.
LINK: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/peyton-manning-was-at-his-worst-but-hes-still-the-best/?ex_cid=538twitter
LINK: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/peyton-manning-was-at-his-worst-but-hes-still-the-best/?ex_cid=538twitter
A corollary to: you have to be a pretty good pitcher to lose 20 games in a season?
The minute Elway and Manning agreed to his restructured deal this decision was sealed.
Many Broncos fans (me included) would have been fine with starting a rebuild after last year's loss to IND in the playoffs.
But Elway decided to take another swing at the big prize and I'm sure the inability to properly vet Osweiler was considered and determined to be collateral damage.
Elway went for it and the Defense has kept hope alive up to now.
Manning fell apart and the plan didn't work.
Plan B time now.
this game @ CHI is a playoff game to me for brock to be at least a ave QB he has to win this game because if he loses here ne will beat us in denver and @ 7-4 the door will be open for KC to win the west at 10-6 loseing @ sd buff or oak
but a denver win sunday makes a 3 seed 95 % denver is getting ne at the pefect time after buffalo on a short week for ne
i have to wonder deep down does manning wants den at 7-4 so he can get the wins record
but if brock wins these next 2 games manning will never play in a denver uniform again
but a denver win sunday makes a 3 seed 95 % denver is getting ne at the pefect time after buffalo on a short week for ne
i have to wonder deep down does manning wants den at 7-4 so he can get the wins record
but if brock wins these next 2 games manning will never play in a denver uniform again
Plan B could be swapping into Drew Brees or Matthew Stafford. The plan is to be playing on the second weekend of the playoffs.
the only plomem with stafford or brees is $$$ brees will not take a 12-15 mil pay cut and taking stafford on means bye-bye mailk jackson fs d stewart and all our fa short of V miller
i cant speak for spike but if we cant beat ne nov 29 when are we ever going to beat them
here 2 diff view
A
@ CHI W because bears peaked last week cutler throw 2 int and brock just does enrough to win 24-21 W
NE W Buffalo beats NE up short week denver gets a pick 6 and 4 FG and wins 26-20
@SD SD is gone fishing as den wins 31-14 W
Oak back and froth up and down mcmanus kicks a 55 yard FG with no time left as den wins 31-28 W
@ Pitt L ben throw for 300 + and 3 td as pitt wins 27-17
Ciny Monday Night ruh-row benglas o-line gets beat up as denver eeks out a 17-14 w
SD Rivers throws for 3 td early but SD Gives up 31 2nd-haif points 41-28 W
B
Denver only gets 13 in Chi as oz is rusty 16-13 bears L
NE has a hard first 3 Q in denver but throws a TD to chander and Gronk as NE wins 24-16 L
SD has won 2 in a row as they contiue playing their best football when its too late 27-24 SD L
Oak devner wins here 24-14 w
Pitt smokes them 38-10 L
Ciny has everything locked up the 2 seed as den wins 17-13 W
sd at 9-6 in a tie with KC also 9-6 Denver wins late 31-21 as manning comes in for 1 haif the first W
A
@ CHI W because bears peaked last week cutler throw 2 int and brock just does enrough to win 24-21 W
NE W Buffalo beats NE up short week denver gets a pick 6 and 4 FG and wins 26-20
@SD SD is gone fishing as den wins 31-14 W
Oak back and froth up and down mcmanus kicks a 55 yard FG with no time left as den wins 31-28 W
@ Pitt L ben throw for 300 + and 3 td as pitt wins 27-17
Ciny Monday Night ruh-row benglas o-line gets beat up as denver eeks out a 17-14 w
SD Rivers throws for 3 td early but SD Gives up 31 2nd-haif points 41-28 W
B
Denver only gets 13 in Chi as oz is rusty 16-13 bears L
NE has a hard first 3 Q in denver but throws a TD to chander and Gronk as NE wins 24-16 L
SD has won 2 in a row as they contiue playing their best football when its too late 27-24 SD L
Oak devner wins here 24-14 w
Pitt smokes them 38-10 L
Ciny has everything locked up the 2 seed as den wins 17-13 W
sd at 9-6 in a tie with KC also 9-6 Denver wins late 31-21 as manning comes in for 1 haif the first W
Hey Osweiler might be good enough to win some games and give the defense room to win more. Until. I see more of him I don't know what to expect.
Manning might even heal up over a month and come back to lead a late run.
I haven't thrown in the towel on the season. A lot could happen and the 3 game lead in the AFC West is a nice cushion for making the playoffs.
But breaking in a new QB could also be a train wreck and Manning might come back and keep sucking.
We'll see!
As an outside observed, I have to say that the notion that Osweiler is going to step in and be a competent backup seems fairly far-fetched to me. There's approximately 10ish good quarterbacks in the league right now (and I'm being generous with the word good), and the notion that Denver had one sitting on the bench the first 10 weeks does not pass the smell test. I think it's much more likely Osweiler is as much a competent replacement as TJ Yates, or Landry Jones, or any number of other backup QBs is (ie not very).
Yeah, I've been kind of puzzled at the clamor for Osw in Denver. Anything is possible and hard to dismiss a guy you haven't seen for more than a few snaps. But also hard to take seriously a guy who has had just a few snaps. Much more likely the clamor is a symptom of the "no one is more popular than a backup QB syndrome."
I think a lot of it is just to see if he can be competent. If they could get Alex Smith level competency from him, the defense and complimentary parts are enough to give them a shot. Manning has been *that* bad.
I was just going to ask, what's the minimum comparable QB level Osweiler needs to play at to keep Peyton on the sidelines? Alex Smith-level actually seems to be asking a lot— by Passer Rating, Smith (91.5) is closer to Brady than he is to Manning, largely because he's been exceptionally careful with the football (only 3 INTs, tied with Brady and Rogers). Probably Alex Smith + slightly-better-than-1:1-TD-to-INT-ratio is a reasonable upside expectation, which would basically make him Teddy Bridgewater (84.6) or Matthew Stafford (84.5).
Not that the QB will be decided based on something as abstract as Passer Rating. As J-Man notes above, all Osweiler needs is wins (by any means necessary) @CHI and vs NE to keep the starting role. So, maybe a better formulation of the question is, what level does he have to play at to make those two wins likely?
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He was a competent backup for 1+ quarters last Sunday.
If he can play around that level and give the defense some time to recharge their batteries and do their thing more often then not (which Manning was failing to do), then that may be all Denver needs to win.
As to the notion of "nobody has a good QB rotting on the bench unused", the uniqueness of the situation with Manning has to be considered. If Brady was struggling the same way Manning was it would take a lot to pull the pin on Garappolo, too. (Remember, the team was winning games)
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BTW, I don't expect Osweiler to dominate.
He's going to throw some picks and make some bad throws in key situations. He's going to take some sacks trying to find an open man. He's going to burn some time outs when he can't decipher the look he gets from the D and he's going to be flagged for delay of game a few times for not getting the snap off in time.
The Chicago coaching staff knows him better than any other in the league since Fox was his coach up until last year, so they will be prepared for him.
Let's see if he can rise above those things or at a minimum limit the damage.
He's going to throw some picks and make some bad throws in key situations. He's going to take some sacks trying to find an open man. He's going to burn some time outs when he can't decipher the look he gets from the D and he's going to be flagged for delay of game a few times for not getting the snap off in time.
The Chicago coaching staff knows him better than any other in the league since Fox was his coach up until last year, so they will be prepared for him.
Let's see if he can rise above those things or at a minimum limit the damage.
1. Osweiler looking competent in 1 quarter of a game where the other team is playing prevent defense with a three+ score lead is ... not worthwhile evidence. This is why stats in football are so useless - situation matters.
2. It is almost too bad Drew Bledsoe got hurt and lost his job because it's pretty clear in retrospect from lots of inside reporting that he was going to lose it regardless - one year after getting a $100M extension and in the prime of his career.
So no, I don't think it would take "a lot" for Belichick to do what is best for the football team. He's pulled the pin on plenty of big name, big salary players and assuming he wouldn't do it to Brady contradicts even Brady's public statements on the matter.
Gary Kubiak and John Elway aren't Bill Belichick. No one is. There's maybe five coaches in history with the stones to replace a HOF QB who is slipping: Bill Belichick, Paul Brown, Bill Walsh, Al Davis* & Steve Spurrier.
* Counting Davis as a coach because if the coach didn't do what Al commanded, he'd have just fired the coach.
http://www.theonion.com/article/aging-peyton-manning-now-forced-take-field-assista-51858?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_campaign=LinkPreview:1:Default
Aging Peyton Manning Now Forced to Take Field With Assistance Dog
Aging Peyton Manning Now Forced to Take Field With Assistance Dog
Not to pile on an all time great (top 5?) QB, but Sunday was the worst passing I've seen since the black and white TV days. I don't blame Manning. He's a fierce competitor and the type that would play with his arm dragging on the ground. Kubiak, however, ought to get reamed by Elway for not pulling him earlier. Manning was getting absolutely no zip on his passes. There is just one high school in the city I live in and the QB for that school throws a better ball than Manning was throwing on Sunday.
KC was not playing prevent defense at the end of that game. They brought the house rushing the passer. Of course 3-4 possessions off the bench are not enough to build a real prediction. I never said they were. I think I'm pretty level headed about this subject.
As to What BB would have done if Brady played the same way Manning has this year and the wins were the same, I highly doubt he would have benched Brady any sooner than Manning got benched. The team was winning. Manning showed some flashes of competence and had a good game vs GB. Then Indy was a mess and KC was a train wreck. Maybe BB would have made Brady sit and heal before the KC game, but to say that he would have benched Brady on a 7-0 streak is crazy.
Don't forget that Belichick also got tremendous heat in Cleveland when he got rid of Bernie Kosar. If there's any coach with a track record for being willing to bench or release a popular guy it's the hoodie.
yes manning shouild had went out at 10-0 after he got his record
i wouild had IR manning so that oz gets a fair 7 game shot
I think that would go over very poorly in the locker room. While they surely know Peyton is greatly diminished, there's just no way the other veterans want to experiment with a complete unknown wildcard like Osweiler over what Manning brings. Even with his rapidly eroding physical skills, Manning still has a top 5 football brain and if he can get healthy over the next month, offers a much better shot at a playoff run than BO.
The only way they put Manning on IR is if he's really, truly incapacitated. We're not there. Yet.
I may have already posted this, but it was the first time a QB has completed 25% or fewer passes on 20 more attempts in a game since Joey Harrington. You don't ever want to be the first to do something since Joey.
Unless it is hopeless, I do wonder why they don't make a big stink about getting Manning multiple weeks off to heal so he is ready for the stretch run. Sit him down for a month. Who knows, he might come back with something left for a few games.
Elway and Kubiak may see that as one possibility but I think there are a couple good reasons not to make a big stink that would openly advertise that as the plan.
First, Peyton probably wouldn't like it. He apparently was unhappy when Kubiak told him about being sat down for the Chicago game. I don't think it would go over well to tell him that he was going to be in street clothes for a month. In all likelihood he's not even that hurt right now.
Second, what if Osweiler plays well enough that Kubiak believes he gives them a better chance to win? If Kubiak tells everybody that they have a master plan to get Peyton healthy and fresh for the playoffs, its hard to stay with Osweiler in that situation.
The smart play is to remain as noncommittal as possible, see what Osweiler does in Peyton's temporary absence, and then make a decision later.
It never occurred to me that he could be this bad without an injury, at least enough of an injury to save face or provide plausible bench-ability.
If Osweiler keeps playing well you keep finding 'setbacks' to Manning's recovery. But what do I know? It blows me away that he was upset about getting pulled. This seems like a situation where he should have been thankful, wishing it had happened sooner.
If Osweiler keeps playing well you keep finding 'setbacks' to Manning's recovery. But what do I know? It blows me away that he was upset about getting pulled. This seems like a situation where he should have been thankful, wishing it had happened sooner.
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