Young, scrappy and hungry: when does Hamilton get his shot?

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Rooting for Aaron Burr at this point.
That's pretty funny.

With the caveat of I'm not looking for the answer of "it means he's been REALLY bad" but I'm genuinely trying to ask here. How does one quantify a -15 OPS+? As in, I understand that 100 is exactly average, and that something like a 115OPS+ means you've been about 15% better than a replacement level player while a 90 OPS+ means you've been 90% as good (or 10% worse) than a replacement level player.

How is a negative score described / quantified.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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That's pretty funny.

With the caveat of I'm not looking for the answer of "it means he's been REALLY bad" but I'm genuinely trying to ask here. How does one quantify a -15 OPS+? As in, I understand that 100 is exactly average, and that something like a 115OPS+ means you've been about 15% better than a replacement level player while a 90 OPS+ means you've been 90% as good (or 10% worse) than a replacement level player.

How is a negative score described / quantified.
115% worse than replacement level?
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Thank you, but what is that trying to imply?

As in, would "replacement level" be the idea of bringing up "anyone" from AAA to fill the position. So something below that is like bringing up a bad AAA player, and thus -15 OPS+ would be like bringing up a bad AA player.
 
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Petagine in a Bottle

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Thank you, but what is that trying to imply?

As in, would "replacement level" be the idea of bringing up "anyone" from AAA to fill the position. So something below that is like bringing up a bad AAA player, and thus -15 OPS+ would be like bringing up a bad AA player.
But a 100 OPS+ isn’t replacement level, it’s basically average production. So I guess -115 is 115% worse than the average.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Thanks both.

I suppose maybe it's just that there isn't really an equivalency component to it, when I was hoping there was one to more easily conceptualize the data.
 

grimshaw

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Thanks both.

I suppose maybe it's just that there isn't really an equivalency component to it, when I was hoping there was one to more easily conceptualize the data.
Something like if the Sox called up a single A guy with a bad hit tool. Not even replacement level bad.
Or a reliever who hasn''t batted since high school.
 

scottyno

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Hamilton doesn't have a hit since Blizzard told us he gets hits, that seems like a correlation.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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To be a little less pile-on-y..... it's still a super SSS, but more than that, between him and Dalbec, it should underscore how large the gap between AAA and the ML is right now for anyone other than a few absolute elite players. There's people clamoring for Rafaela to be called up... for Mayer... posters thinking that Dalbec may have finally figured something out. But it's more likely that elite AAA players are never going to be anything more than the so-called "AAAA" types with very, very few becoming even replacement level ML quality guys. Defense is more challenging too.
 

chrisfont9

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To be a little less pile-on-y..... it's still a super SSS, but more than that, between him and Dalbec, it should underscore how large the gap between AAA and the ML is right now for anyone other than a few absolute elite players. There's people clamoring for Rafaela to be called up... for Mayer... posters thinking that Dalbec may have finally figured something out. But it's more likely that elite AAA players are never going to be anything more than the so-called "AAAA" types with very, very few becoming even replacement level ML quality guys. Defense is more challenging too.
This was the lesson last year too when everyone was injured and we had AAA guys playing positions in the majors that were unfamiliar to them. I don't know what we did to deserve this seemingly endless run of horrible injury luck -- don't fans in Texas or Tampa do more to piss off the baseball gods than us? -- but I sure hope it ends.
 

grepal

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In a related topic (somewhat any way) I wonder what the record is for players playing shortstop during 1 season for one team.
Kike, Chang, Reyes, Dalbec, Hamilton, Arroyo, I think Valdez played some too. That would be 7 if I am correct and Story could make. Seven before July is a pretty big number.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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In a related topic (somewhat any way) I wonder what the record is for players playing shortstop during 1 season for one team.
Kike, Chang, Reyes, Dalbec, Hamilton, Arroyo, I think Valdez played some too. That would be 7 if I am correct and Story could make. Seven before July is a pretty big number.
I think the only thing maybe a bit unusual is that they've had seven guys field the position before July. They had seven last year and seven the year before despite having a generally healthy All Star starting at the position. Every team goes through periods where they have a position that is a revolving door for various reasons. The Red Sox fielded 10 different players at second base last season and 11 in 2021 (8 so far this year).
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Wait... he was a comic artist and got over 3 million views on YouTube but doesn't know how to write a contraction? It must be nice.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He is really squaring up balls. May have won a permanent utility role.
Seems like an instance where the organization, especially the oft-criticized hitting coaches, should get some kudos for showing patience and sticking with a guy for longer than many / most of us thought was appropriate. Hamilton seems to have settled in, gained confidence, and is playing pretty darn well now. He’s now up to 0.6 bWAR and a 108 OPS+ and his defense seems much improved too.
 

LoLsapien

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BABIP is super reasonable for a guy with his speed, too (0.333). If he subs in for Grissom that's a fun speedster lineup 8/9/1 of Blizzard/C-Note/Angry Lizard.
 

grimshaw

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Seems like an instance where the organization, especially the oft-criticized hitting coaches, should get some kudos for showing patience and sticking with a guy for longer than many / most of us thought was appropriate. Hamilton seems to have settled in, gained confidence, and is playing pretty darn well now. He’s now up to 0.6 bWAR and a 108 OPS+ and his defense seems much improved too.
Hunter Renfroe since the "Hamilton" trade.

2022 2.6 bWAR and a 7.65 million dollar salary
2023 -.6bWAR and 11.9 million
2024 -.6 bWAR and 5.5 mill

A cool 21+ mill for 1.4 bWAR. Over his last 6th seasons on now 7 different teams, maybe he was an asshat and the Sox got what they could.

Hamilton is at .5 bWAR for league minimum. The trade has moved from awful, to maybe not so bad. Obviously JBJ was a dud, but maybe Hamilton is a useful bench player over the next few seasons.
 

LoLsapien

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We're well into June and the The Blizzard continues getting key hits and making things happen with his legs. 6 more total bases today. Up to a clean 1.0 bWAR. 116 wrc+ albeit a 0.366 BABIP.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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We're well into June and the The Blizzard continues getting key hits and making things happen with his legs. 6 more total bases today. Up to a clean 1.0 bWAR. 116 wrc+ albeit a 0.366 BABIP.
He's still a liability defensively. He seems prone to panic and poor decisions (like that failed glove flip today), and I think a lot of it is he tends to rush because he doesn't have a quick release on his throws. It always seems like he has to fully wind up in order to shot put the ball to first. It's not even a thing where moving to second and shortening his throws will help. He doesn't seem to have a quick flip throw in his arsenal.

Though if he keeps performing at the plate like he did today, you can deal with the occasional struggles on defensive.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah, the speed is his carrying tool, he can turn a single into a double or triple without blinking an eye. If he can hit .250/.330/.400, that quickly starts to look like .250/.330/.450 with his speed. He's going to be a valuable player for somebody for that reason.

Honestly with the struggles in the infield he seems like he could be destined for the outfield one day. Certainly not right now, and not for us, given that's just about the only place he'd never get time on this team.
 

SouthernBoSox

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He's still a liability defensively. He seems prone to panic and poor decisions (like that failed glove flip today), and I think a lot of it is he tends to rush because he doesn't have a quick release on his throws. It always seems like he has to fully wind up in order to shot put the ball to first. It's not even a thing where moving to second and shortening his throws will help. He doesn't seem to have a quick flip throw in his arsenal.

Though if he keeps performing at the plate like he did today, you can deal with the occasional struggles on defensive.
He has no arm talent, when you have no arm talent it’s very challenging to accurately throw with quick arm action. You have to muscle throws and muscling throws takes time.

This has been a major problem for him throughout his career and why people have known he has no shot at being a long term major league shortstop.
 

grimshaw

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He's still a liability defensively. He seems prone to panic and poor decisions (like that failed glove flip today), and I think a lot of it is he tends to rush because he doesn't have a quick release on his throws. It always seems like he has to fully wind up in order to shot put the ball to first. It's not even a thing where moving to second and shortening his throws will help. He doesn't seem to have a quick flip throw in his arsenal.

Though if he keeps performing at the plate like he did today, you can deal with the occasional struggles on defensive.
I don't want him at SS either but I think the range he has at 2b far offsets the quick flip aspect enough to make him adequate at 2b, though as you indicated, OF may be worth a future shot if the situation called for it.

From Soxprospects:
"Looks more comfortable and profiles better at second base. Hands work and has shown solid range there. Footwork is sloppy at second as well, but is within the more forgiving margin for error at that position than at shortstop. Speed and athleticism might be best suited for center field, where he played on occasion in 2022 and 2023. Potential below-average defender at shortstop and average defender at second base."

FWIW, he has 2 DRS at 2b in 52 innings, both from his range so far.
 

billy ashley

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Ian on the SP pod stated that Hamilton has clearly improved defensively to the point that he's playable at SS. He doesn't think he should be a regular SS, but he's passable enough for a bench spot.

This has been a frustrating season, but Hamilton emerging as a legit bench piece is a nice development. If he can play multiple up the middle positions, he should hit more than enough to justify a bench spot. If only he wasn't also left handed.
 

Manramsclan

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Guys like him developing into useful pieces are huge W's for the organization. I really love watching him play now and seem him as a trade candidate if he can hold his value.
 

Fishy1

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Yeah, 13 stolen bases against 1 CS in 117 plate appearances... that's bonkers speed. I'm not sure where he fits into our long-term plans, or if he can sustain his performance with the bat, but he's been a huge part of this team staying afloat the last month. His high-water mark in the minors was a BA of .263, so the .282 he's giving us is well above what might be expected going forward, I think.