Young, scrappy and hungry: when does Hamilton get his shot?
- Thread starter PrometheusWakefield
- Start date
That's pretty funny.
With the caveat of I'm not looking for the answer of "it means he's been REALLY bad" but I'm genuinely trying to ask here. How does one quantify a -15 OPS+? As in, I understand that 100 is exactly average, and that something like a 115OPS+ means you've been about 15% better than a replacement level player while a 90 OPS+ means you've been 90% as good (or 10% worse) than a replacement level player.
How is a negative score described / quantified.
But a 100 OPS+ isn’t replacement level, it’s basically average production. So I guess -115 is 115% worse than the average.
Thanks both.
I suppose maybe it's just that there isn't really an equivalency component to it, when I was hoping there was one to more easily conceptualize the data.
I suppose maybe it's just that there isn't really an equivalency component to it, when I was hoping there was one to more easily conceptualize the data.
Something like if the Sox called up a single A guy with a bad hit tool. Not even replacement level bad.
Or a reliever who hasn''t batted since high school.
To be a little less pile-on-y..... it's still a super SSS, but more than that, between him and Dalbec, it should underscore how large the gap between AAA and the ML is right now for anyone other than a few absolute elite players. There's people clamoring for Rafaela to be called up... for Mayer... posters thinking that Dalbec may have finally figured something out. But it's more likely that elite AAA players are never going to be anything more than the so-called "AAAA" types with very, very few becoming even replacement level ML quality guys. Defense is more challenging too.
This was the lesson last year too when everyone was injured and we had AAA guys playing positions in the majors that were unfamiliar to them. I don't know what we did to deserve this seemingly endless run of horrible injury luck -- don't fans in Texas or Tampa do more to piss off the baseball gods than us? -- but I sure hope it ends.
In a related topic (somewhat any way) I wonder what the record is for players playing shortstop during 1 season for one team.
Kike, Chang, Reyes, Dalbec, Hamilton, Arroyo, I think Valdez played some too. That would be 7 if I am correct and Story could make. Seven before July is a pretty big number.
Kike, Chang, Reyes, Dalbec, Hamilton, Arroyo, I think Valdez played some too. That would be 7 if I am correct and Story could make. Seven before July is a pretty big number.
I think the only thing maybe a bit unusual is that they've had seven guys field the position before July. They had seven last year and seven the year before despite having a generally healthy All Star starting at the position. Every team goes through periods where they have a position that is a revolving door for various reasons. The Red Sox fielded 10 different players at second base last season and 11 in 2021 (8 so far this year).
Wait... he was a comic artist and got over 3 million views on YouTube but doesn't know how to write a contraction? It must be nice.
The Blizzard is now OPSing 945 for the month of May. I think that's worth a thread bump. Where did that come from?
Seems like an instance where the organization, especially the oft-criticized hitting coaches, should get some kudos for showing patience and sticking with a guy for longer than many / most of us thought was appropriate. Hamilton seems to have settled in, gained confidence, and is playing pretty darn well now. He’s now up to 0.6 bWAR and a 108 OPS+ and his defense seems much improved too.
Hunter Renfroe since the "Hamilton" trade.
2022 2.6 bWAR and a 7.65 million dollar salary
2023 -.6bWAR and 11.9 million
2024 -.6 bWAR and 5.5 mill
A cool 21+ mill for 1.4 bWAR. Over his last 6th seasons on now 7 different teams, maybe he was an asshat and the Sox got what they could.
Hamilton is at .5 bWAR for league minimum. The trade has moved from awful, to maybe not so bad. Obviously JBJ was a dud, but maybe Hamilton is a useful bench player over the next few seasons.
He's still a liability defensively. He seems prone to panic and poor decisions (like that failed glove flip today), and I think a lot of it is he tends to rush because he doesn't have a quick release on his throws. It always seems like he has to fully wind up in order to shot put the ball to first. It's not even a thing where moving to second and shortening his throws will help. He doesn't seem to have a quick flip throw in his arsenal.
Though if he keeps performing at the plate like he did today, you can deal with the occasional struggles on defensive.
I dont have any idea about his futire, but given the injury/roster situations, his bat keeps him in the lineup for now.
No doubt. The injuries have made it so there really aren't any reasonable alternatives.
Yeah, the speed is his carrying tool, he can turn a single into a double or triple without blinking an eye. If he can hit .250/.330/.400, that quickly starts to look like .250/.330/.450 with his speed. He's going to be a valuable player for somebody for that reason.
Honestly with the struggles in the infield he seems like he could be destined for the outfield one day. Certainly not right now, and not for us, given that's just about the only place he'd never get time on this team.
Honestly with the struggles in the infield he seems like he could be destined for the outfield one day. Certainly not right now, and not for us, given that's just about the only place he'd never get time on this team.
He has no arm talent, when you have no arm talent it’s very challenging to accurately throw with quick arm action. You have to muscle throws and muscling throws takes time.
This has been a major problem for him throughout his career and why people have known he has no shot at being a long term major league shortstop.
Except you still need to be somewhat quick there, and he just isn't quick at all. What it screams to me, combined with his foot speed, is "outfielder."
I don't want him at SS either but I think the range he has at 2b far offsets the quick flip aspect enough to make him adequate at 2b, though as you indicated, OF may be worth a future shot if the situation called for it.
From Soxprospects:
"Looks more comfortable and profiles better at second base. Hands work and has shown solid range there. Footwork is sloppy at second as well, but is within the more forgiving margin for error at that position than at shortstop. Speed and athleticism might be best suited for center field, where he played on occasion in 2022 and 2023. Potential below-average defender at shortstop and average defender at second base."
FWIW, he has 2 DRS at 2b in 52 innings, both from his range so far.
Ian on the SP pod stated that Hamilton has clearly improved defensively to the point that he's playable at SS. He doesn't think he should be a regular SS, but he's passable enough for a bench spot.
This has been a frustrating season, but Hamilton emerging as a legit bench piece is a nice development. If he can play multiple up the middle positions, he should hit more than enough to justify a bench spot. If only he wasn't also left handed.
This has been a frustrating season, but Hamilton emerging as a legit bench piece is a nice development. If he can play multiple up the middle positions, he should hit more than enough to justify a bench spot. If only he wasn't also left handed.
Guys like him developing into useful pieces are huge W's for the organization. I really love watching him play now and seem him as a trade candidate if he can hold his value.
Yeah, 13 stolen bases against 1 CS in 117 plate appearances... that's bonkers speed. I'm not sure where he fits into our long-term plans, or if he can sustain his performance with the bat, but he's been a huge part of this team staying afloat the last month. His high-water mark in the minors was a BA of .263, so the .282 he's giving us is well above what might be expected going forward, I think.
Yeah, there's definitely some concerns about Hamilton sticking at SS, but the bat + the speed, even if you factor in some luck on balls in play, makes the present version of him a major leaguer who deserves to be a regular. He's stolen 13 bags in just 135 plate appearances. That's crazy.
Statcast doesn't love his EV, but it loves his Chase% and his LA. He's clearly got a great eye, if he could figure out a way to whiff on balls over the plate less and cut the K's to 20% or so instead of 25%, sky's the limit. And we've seen that happen with Wong and Duran, both of who came into the league striking out way more than Hamilton.
It's awesome having so much speed on the basepaths after years of lumbering teams.
Statcast doesn't love his EV, but it loves his Chase% and his LA. He's clearly got a great eye, if he could figure out a way to whiff on balls over the plate less and cut the K's to 20% or so instead of 25%, sky's the limit. And we've seen that happen with Wong and Duran, both of who came into the league striking out way more than Hamilton.
It's awesome having so much speed on the basepaths after years of lumbering teams.
To go to fangraphs (which sorts more easily by position), for Shortstops, Hamilton is #9 in the majors by wRC+ (a close cousin of OPS+).
That does not include baserunning. There, fangraphs uses a counting stat. Hamilton is the #3 SS in the majors, despite having 20 fewer games than the other #1-5 guys. So I'm betting if he's somehow pro-rated, he's close to #1.
The bad news is his defense, also measured on fangraphs by counting. There he's 34 out of 38 in the majors (SS with over 100 PAs).
Altogether, that brings him to #22 bWAR in the majors - but much of that is colored by his lack of playing time. If we were to double his PAs and so double his bWAR, he'd be in a cluster with Kim, Seager, and Correra.
He's still a work in progress on both offense and defense, obviously. But he's starting to play himself into a legitimate SS/2B option going forward. I hope in a month we end up with the classic "good problem" of trying to find ABs for a hot hitting group of Hamilton, Valdez, and Grissom.
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Rafaela by contrast has a wRC+ of 63, which translates to a bWAR of zero. Obviously also a work in progress, but I wouldn't want anyone else in center field.
I'm not saying they'll bench him (they won't and shouldn't), just that a position change would be appropriate.
Absolutely. This could be a high-water mark for him, and I'm sure his BABIP will regress.
Nonetheless, it's very good to see him tapping into his power and speed. (He slugged .438 his first time at AAA, along with 57 SB/14 caught.)
Sure. FWIW, I've thought all along that his bat could be good enough for SS/2B, the issue was the glove. Hopefully he really has made gains with the latter.
I think this week has proven he just isn't good enough defensively.
The bat looks great - but boy does he flunk the eye test at short.
Last two games it was very noticable that his arm just doesn't get it done at SS which leads to him forcing/risking things more to compensate. His throws to 1B look like he's putting the same kind of torque in as a RF trying to hit the plate on the fly. He just doesn't have the feets/instincts to overcome the long windup.
He's really making the 2B equation interesting. I certainly don't think he's the long-term answer at SS, but he's rangy enough to play 2B.
Which means we've got three guys at least with options and pedigree who are ready right now and could be major league second baseman between him, Grissom, and Valdez (and Romy, who's more of an ex-prospect than the others but has just as much pedigree). The thing that's most in Hamilton's favor is that speed doesn't slump.
Gonna be interesting to see what sort of decisions the FO makes going forward.
Which means we've got three guys at least with options and pedigree who are ready right now and could be major league second baseman between him, Grissom, and Valdez (and Romy, who's more of an ex-prospect than the others but has just as much pedigree). The thing that's most in Hamilton's favor is that speed doesn't slump.
Gonna be interesting to see what sort of decisions the FO makes going forward.