Young, scrappy and hungry: when does Hamilton get his shot?
- Thread starter PrometheusWakefield
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Again, I think it depends on what you're expecting.
If you're expecting a full time SS, then yeah, Hamiliton is not a viable option. If you're expecting a back up who can fill in other positions, he's perfectly fine.
The question is whether or not his bat has forced his way into being a regular (I don't think it has, SSS). If that's the case, he's a 2B or CF.
If he continues to hit his way into being a regular when everyone comes back, if he could play center, that would be great. Move Rafaela back to short. But he has very limited amount of experience in the outfield. If I'm reading this correctly, it consists of two games in Portland and six in Worcester. That includes the years he played at UT. His arm doesn't look as strong as Rafaelas at SS, so I'm not sure how it would play in center.
I'm gonna throw out something radical here.
If they reach a point soon where most everyone is back, healthy and productive (Valdez, Grissom, Abreu, O'Neill, Yoshida, etc), there's going to be an odd man (or two) out. My solution: trade Hamilton. We talk about tradeable pieces at the deadline being the guys with expiring contracts, but a guy with 5 years of service time who doesn't really have a position if everyone is healthy has to have more value to another team than to the Sox. He's someone that could be moved regardless of whether the team is selling at the deadline or buying. Maybe find another middling contender with a middle infield need like say the Tigers and see what they'll give up.
Of course, the chances that everyone will be healthy and productive all at the same time are probably low enough that they hang on to him. But it's something to consider, especially with him being the oldest of their guys with under two years of service time and arguably the lowest ceiling.
If they reach a point soon where most everyone is back, healthy and productive (Valdez, Grissom, Abreu, O'Neill, Yoshida, etc), there's going to be an odd man (or two) out. My solution: trade Hamilton. We talk about tradeable pieces at the deadline being the guys with expiring contracts, but a guy with 5 years of service time who doesn't really have a position if everyone is healthy has to have more value to another team than to the Sox. He's someone that could be moved regardless of whether the team is selling at the deadline or buying. Maybe find another middling contender with a middle infield need like say the Tigers and see what they'll give up.
Of course, the chances that everyone will be healthy and productive all at the same time are probably low enough that they hang on to him. But it's something to consider, especially with him being the oldest of their guys with under two years of service time and arguably the lowest ceiling.
I don't think it's radical at all. The issue is that I don't think he has much value. Maybe a short term rental of a decent MR.
Oh I know he doesn't have much value and I certainly don't expect him to fetch much in trade (a short term MR rental would be outstanding IMO). I'm usually not one to tout selling high but I don't think Hamilton's value can get much higher than it is now, even if it isn't all that high at all.
I can't remember any Sox team that had 3 fast guys in a row in the batting order...or even two.
The Sox still need to replenish a lot of starting pitching depth at the high mL levels. I'm not super high on Fitts. Perales is two years off (maybe longer if that injury turns out to be serious) and Wikelman isn't fixing his BB rate problem. I'm not too sure who else has serious stuff to project as a mid rotation guy (or better) down there. I'd be super happy to turn Hamilton into some team's third rated starting pitching prospect. I have very little sense at all of other teams farms so couldn't even begin to come up with suggestions though, but that's about the most I'd expect from him (which honestly would be great)
Hmm. It makes sense if you view him as a 2B - and there, I think he'd fetch some actual value from a club looking for a starter of the future.
But trading him would leave our SS depth as Rafaela/Romy/Meidroth(?) I think Cora wants Rafaela in CF, and Romy hasn't shown he can stay healthy. He's been injured multiple times this year. So I don't think they give away the depth. Even if Romy looks good out there for a few weeks.
Not sure how serious the Turner injury is, but if the Phillies are looking for help maybe we could make a play for someone like Griff McGarry or Wen Hui Pan? Both seem like guys with great raw stuff but control issues that could benefit from Breslow, Bailey, & Co.
He seems to me almost perfectly suited for a traditional middle infield utility guy. Can play short and second, hits decent, can be used as a pinch runner.
I agree, while there is a small chance he could continue to exceed expectations and become an everyday player. Hamilton played a bit of outfield in AAA and I think that he could become really valuable if he could back-up the OF positions as well, since he has the speed for it and his slow arm speed would be less of a factor. Similarly, I would love to see Refsnyder return to his roots this offseason and become a functional back-up first baseman.
Hamilton's statcast page with still quite a lot to like.
HH% isn't great, K and BB%'s aren't great, neither is the barrel percentage, but the launch angles are absolutely fantastic, as is the chase rate, and the expected batting average is good too. For a guy who doesn't swing out of the zone much, he whiffs a lot. If he can figure out a way to make more contact in the zone we'll see a guy who will start taking a lot more walks, I think.
I wonder if there's an adjustment in stance or hand position that he can make that will allow him to make more contact.
HH% isn't great, K and BB%'s aren't great, neither is the barrel percentage, but the launch angles are absolutely fantastic, as is the chase rate, and the expected batting average is good too. For a guy who doesn't swing out of the zone much, he whiffs a lot. If he can figure out a way to make more contact in the zone we'll see a guy who will start taking a lot more walks, I think.
I wonder if there's an adjustment in stance or hand position that he can make that will allow him to make more contact.
A guy as quick as Hamilton should be able to dramatically increase his range with coaching and reps. His footwork is likely the culprit. Anyone seen him live?
Duran leads the majors in baserunning value with 4.9 runs above average - probably worth at least 1 win on its own. Hamilton in less than half of Duran's appearances is at 4.5. He'd be basically doubling the next best player.
Peak Rickey Henderson was between 10-14 runs and that's in a full season. Obviously the measurements were probably less refined back in the 80's, but Hamilton is an incredible menace right now.
To be clear, Hamilton is no Rickey Henderson, but on a per PA basis, he has been the best baserunner in baseball by a wide margin.
Peak Rickey Henderson was between 10-14 runs and that's in a full season. Obviously the measurements were probably less refined back in the 80's, but Hamilton is an incredible menace right now.
To be clear, Hamilton is no Rickey Henderson, but on a per PA basis, he has been the best baserunner in baseball by a wide margin.
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I know you're talking whole package, but consider SB alone - Hamilton has 21 in 164 PAs. Or 1 SB every 7.8 PAs.
Peak Rickey: 100/772, 130/656, 108/622. Or, 7.2, 5.0, 5.7.
Mid-20s Rickey: 66/597, 80/654, 87/701. Or 9.0, 8.1, 8.1.
Pretty damn close. . .