Yoshinobu Yamamoto signs with Dodgers for 12 years, 325M

jon abbey

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The two WS teams this year averaged 87-75 in the regular season (TEX 90-72 and ARI 84-78). Pretty sure competitive parity as to who wins it all is OK.

I think I might make it more likely that LAD breaks the 2001 SEA regular season record of 116-46 (lost the ALCS 4-1) than that they actually win the WS this year, does that make any sense? They still might not be done, they need to clear a 40 man spot now at the least.
 

Brand Name

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Moving the Line
Is it a proven bad thing to have a big bad in sports? We were that in the NFL for 20 years. NBA seems fine going from Heat to Warrior to Laker to Celtic super teams. Maybe it’s good for ratings to have one team vs the world.
This is a feature, not a bug of sports to me. It unites the majority of fanbases into a common cause that any one of them can defeat, almost like the Marvel universe where it's everyone against Thanos. These guys are just the Infinity Stones to get there.

But I admit: I like seeing superteams. Seeing excellence to me is the true pinnacle of sport. Simply because we're seeing the top athletes as it is anyway within a given sport, but to see a further subdivide of the top of the top clustered like that? Like that's pretty awesome to me. It's an extension of why I watch. The maximum possible greatness the sport can put out at once, or close enough to it. My goal as much is see all 162 Dodgers games this year and see them in Yankee Stadium.

George Steinbrenner's quote about growing up in Cleveland about the Yankees well before he bought the team resonates well here, although personally a bit less of the booing, more of the awe: When the Yankees came, it was like Barnum & Bailey coming to town. I don't mean that they were like a circus, but it was the excitement. They had these gray uniforms, but there was the hue to them. I'll never forget them. Watching them warm up was as exciting as watching the game. Being in Cleveland, you couldn't root for them, but you could boo them in awe.

--

As for Yamamoto the pitcher:

What impresses me is his ability to hold back, deep into games, almost like a Verlander. Game 6 of the Japan Series, he went 138 pitches, with #133 at 98 MPH. He won't go that long stateside given Western rest and usage, but still. This is enforced by his K-rate in times through the order last season: 28.0% first, 24.2% second, and 28.6% third.

And he's got that Japanese mentality I personally think is undervalued by teams at large, in just as simple as stat overall strike rate: 68.5%. That's better than Spencer Strider and would've been 5th among qualified pitchers last season.

Some things to look for from Yamamoto arsenal-wise of his most prom:

-His four-seamer actually plays up in the zone, which can be nasty given its lower release point from a three-quarters arm slot.
-His curve is unique too with the Ginoza grip, which means he turns his wrist over, shows the back of his hand to the batter, and then flicks the ball with his thumb, ultimately resulting in 12-6 movement.

View: https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1444328786816684043


-The gem is his splitter, with its 77% ground ball rate. Lefties had a .424 OPS on it, righties had a .324 OPS on it. Whiff rate of over 40%. Full disclosure, NBP is in a bit of pitcher's era currently, so while those numbers are great, they need proper context as to the offensive environment within Japan.
 

radsoxfan

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No deferred $ and 2 opt outs is huge for the player. Also has 50 M signing bonus. Sounds like they matched the entire Mets offer, as this structure isn't the Dodgers MO.

When you consider this from the Dodgers' perspective (and include the posting fee), 375M with no deferred money, 50M signing bonus, and 2 opt outs is pretty close to the same overall value they committed on the Ohtani contract.
 

RS2004foreever

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Dodgers won 100 games last year with a rotation that was not very good.
But they did have 24-year-old Bobby Miller who made 22 starts and had a 3.51 FIP and nearly struck out a batter an inning.
They are a 110 team on paper.
 

Marciano490

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Also, Walker Buehler is a stud and was out all last year. This team is bonkers.
 

Tokyo Sox

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No deferred $ and 2 opt outs is huge for the player. Also has 50 M signing bonus. Sounds like they matched the entire Mets offer, as this structure isn't the Dodgers MO.

When you consider this from the Dodgers' perspective (and include the posting fee), 375M with no deferred money, 50M signing bonus, and 2 opt outs is pretty close to the same overall value they committed on the Ohtani contract.
So what's the exact structure? I don't have the twitters at work -- is the 325 inclusive of the signing bonus or no? And when are the opt outs? Thanks.
 

radsoxfan

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So what's the exact structure? I don't have the twitters at work -- is the 325 inclusive of the signing bonus or no? And when are the opt outs? Thanks.
I saw 2 player opt outs, don't know when. 325M includes the signing bonus, but 50M of the total being up front makes it more valuable for the player (same reason deferred $ is less valuable). 375M from the Dodgers total, 50M of that being posting fee, and no deferred $.

If you want to talk present day value cost to the Dodgers with these interest rates, it won't end up being too far off Ohtani.

Ohtani at 10/460 (this is the # after accounting for deferrals) and no signing bonus is something like present day value of 380M or so.

Yamamoto at 12/325, 50M of that as a signing bonus, I bet will be something like 275M present day value. Add in 50M posting fee you're at 325M. 2 opt outs are big time value the player and you're coming close to the value you're giving Ohtani.
 
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Van Everyman

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I detest these 10+ year/$300M contracts. I know Devers got one and am supposed to think these deals will be just the cost of signing an upper mid-tier guy by the time they are in the out years. But I can’t wait until they start blowing up in teams’ faces and don’t really blame Henry for not giving out more of these. It feels like a trend that is bad for teams and bad for the game.
 

JohntheBaptist

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You should have told them the Mets offered you an adjustable JetBlue-sponsored ball cap and two-for-one hot dogs during all Tuesday afternoon games if you would jump on their bandwagon instead. The Dodgers definitely would have matched. Honestly, you could have done better.
I am a rank amateur at this I will admit. Maybe I'll bring 'em this post and they'll throw me a sympathy bobblehead.

If you have the patience of waiting for 1 or 2 hours to exit the parking lot, Dodger Stadium is really a great place to see a game. I'm thinking tickets are going to be a lot harder to get than last year.
Oh I've been. Its brutal. Still a great stadium. Tickets will be impossible, but I can scratch out some bleacher seats against the Pirates I bet and they're free on TV, so.

I'm mostly having fun. I think I'm more just a general baseball fan these days.
 

Tokyo Sox

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I saw 2 player opt outs, don't know when.

325M includes the signing bonus, but 50M of the total being up front makes it more valuable for the player (same reason deferred $ is less valuable). 375M from the Dodgers total, 50M of that being a signing bonus, and no deferred $.

If you want to talk present day value cost to the Dodgers with these interest rates, it won't end up being too far off Ohtani.
Thanks - if both of the bolded are correct, "375M from the Dodgers total" includes the posting fee, is that what you mean? I don't really care about the posting fee, it's only money and not included in the CBT calc. Obviously Dodgers ownership need to care but I don't see why any of us should really.

So the contract is 325 total, 50 upfront, then 12/275, with a couple of player opt-outs in there somewhere. How is the signing bonus treated for CBT calculations, divided by the 12 years, PVd, and charged all in 2024?
 

radsoxfan

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I detest these 10+ year/$300M contracts. I know Devers got one and am supposed to think these deals will be just the cost of signing an upper mid-tier guy by the time they are in the out years. But I can’t wait until they start blowing up in teams’ faces and don’t really blame Henry for not giving out more of these. It feels like a trend that is bad for teams and bad for the game.
People need to stop worrying about the years/total $ on these contracts in this interest rate environment.

Teams are doing this for a reason. They care about the present day value of the contract and the AAV for tax purposes, not the final reported dollar amount. The contract could be 800M total and deferred out for 30 years for all they care (numbers not exact).

His AAV will be 27M (325/12) and the present day value when you account for interest rates will probably be around 275M, maybe less.
 
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radsoxfan

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Thanks - if both of the bolded are correct, "375M from the Dodgers total" includes the posting fee, is that what you mean? I don't really care about the posting fee, it's only money and not included in the CBT calc. Obviously Dodgers ownership need to care but I don't see why any of us should really.

So the contract is 325 total, 50 upfront, then 12/275, with a couple of player opt-outs in there somewhere. How is the signing bonus treated for CBT calculations, divided by the 12 years, PVd, and charged all in 2024?
Yes, I edited above to clarify.

375M includes the posting fee. The 50M signing bonus is included in the 325M.

I believe the signing bonus is spread out over the length of the deal and if there is no deferred $, the AAV is simply 325/12 for the CBT (27M).
 

Tokyo Sox

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I would say that if he comes next winter for almost no money, he will 99 percent be a Dodger. If he waits until 2027 when he will get an even bigger deal than Yamamoto (assuming he stays healthy and dominant), then I think it's more open especially as some of those Dodger backloaded deals start kicking in.
I agree with this, while still maintaining my view on when he'll go.
 

Tokyo Sox

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Yes, I edited above to clarify.

375M includes the posting fee. The 50M signing bonus is included in the 325M.

I believe the signing bonus is spread out over the length of the deal and if there is no deferred $, the AAV is simply 325/12 for the CBT (27M).
Ah cool thanks - so actually the 50mm upfront obviously benefits the player as you say, but isn't really that much of a detriment to the team. 27M AAV seems pretty reasonable after some of the #'s that were getting thrown around.
 

radsoxfan

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Ah cool thanks - so actually the 50mm upfront obviously benefits the player as you say, but isn't really that much of a detriment to the team.
It's a slight detriment to the team in the sense that they can't arbitrage the current high interest rates on that 50M. But it doesn't change the AAV.

325M spread evenly over 12 years is a bit less expensive in present day value to the team than 275M spread evenly over 12 years plus an upfront 50 M signing bonus.
 

Tokyo Sox

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It's a slight detriment to the team in the sense that they can't arbitrage the current high interest rates on that 50M. But it doesn't change the AAV.

325M spread evenly over 12 years is a bit less expensive in present day value to the team than 275M spread evenly over 12 years plus an upfront 50 M signing bonus.
Sure, fair. Thank you.
 

snowmanny

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So if there are two opt outs, as widely reported, let’s pretend one is at four years. Would that make the deal quite possibly 4/142? (50MM + 1/3 of 275MM)
 
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I don’t know how you do that. The union would certainly object. And the value of some teams (like the Dodgers and Yankees, and maybe the Red Sox), would take a substantial hit.
And I don't know why on earth you would do that. The revenue is flowing into the game no matter what, thanks to the players who play it. All you're saying when you say you want a cap is you want the owners to get that cash instead of the players.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Am I a Dodgers fan now? Mookie is my favorite baseball player, I'm obsessed with Ohtani, I was so excited to watch Yamamoto this year and was praying I wouldn't have to watch him do it with NY. I d'know, man. You gotta be impressed, they're not f-cking around. (I live in Los Angeles, fwiw)

I'm not the sports nut many in here are, though I deeply love baseball. They're in my back yard and the Red Sox have done jack shit and seem like a mess.

On this day, the Dodgers not only stepped up and acquired Yoshinobu Yamamoto, after stepping up and acquiring Shohei Ohtani, but they may have also acquired... JohntheBaptist?

Wild times.
No love for Dave Roberts?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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And I don't know why on earth you would do that. The revenue is flowing into the game no matter what, thanks to the players who play it. All you're saying when you say you want a cap is you want the owners to get that cash instead of the players.
Then much more revenue sharing or something. If one team is spending 50% more than the second highest payroll team every year and if they also happen to start winning regularly, changes will follow
 

Van Everyman

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People need to stop worrying about the years/total $ on these contracts in this interest rate environment.

Teams are doing this for a reason. They care about the present day value of the contract and the AAV for tax purposes, not the final reported dollar amount. The contract could be 800M total and deferred out for 30 years for all they care (numbers not exact).

His AAV will be 27M (325/12) and the present day value when you account for interest rates will probably be around 275M, maybe less.
I went back and read your posts about the interest rate environment and how it impacts the contracts, including the article you linked, which I didn’t have time to review during the Ohtani fallout.

While I understand higher interest rates effectively mean a 12-year $325M deal locked in today means the team only has to effectively put $275M in the piggy bank, as your original post on these issues said, these deals are still insane, they’re just slightly less insane than they appear on paper.

And while I know you’re not expressly making this point, I would also add that the commonly espoused “$35M per year will seem cheap a decade from now” notion hasn’t really proven true. ARod’s 10 year, $252M contract with the Rangers in 2000 remained an outlier for a very long time in terms of dollars (and to a slightly lesser extent length) until his famous mid-World Series extension in 2007. Since 2019, that has mostly changed – despite the fact that almost all the 10+ year deals signed in the mid-2010’s proved to be bloated (see: Stanton, Mike; Cano, Robinson; Pujols, Albert). And the Wander and Tatis deals don’t seem far behind in terms of awfulness.

I just have a hard time seeing how this isn’t bad for the game long-term. Sure, the LAD (and Red Sox) can withstand all the bad deals but what about the Padres-types who try to compete with them? They are going to be stuck with awful, unmovable deals at a moment when the game finally seems to be just now recovering from its ratings and quality of play sag.

Based on everything he said a decade ago during the Lester stuff, I do actually wonder whether Henry was trying to ride out this wave on the goodwill of 4 World Series titles when he let Mookie go but underestimated the fallout so extended Devers to placate people. This is a guy who has given out only a handful of 8+-year deals in a market that can be difficult to play in and those went terribly and had to be creatively cleared off the books. Perhaps he’s beginning to accept reality now but regardless, I don’t blame him for maybe hoping this trend would pass.
 

staz

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The two WS teams this year averaged 87-75 in the regular season (TEX 90-72 and ARI 84-78). Pretty sure competitive parity as to who wins it all is OK.
I think I might make it more likely that LAD breaks the 2001 SEA regular season record of 116-46 (lost the ALCS 4-1) than that they actually win the WS this year, does that make any sense?
Makes perfect sense. I think back... waaaay back 60 days ago... to when players named Saalfrank, Ginkel and Sewald locked down Games 6 and 7 on the road, back to back nights, to win the NL pennant for the D-Backs. Maybe Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson and JoKe are those guys in October 2024, but predicting bullpen health/effectiveness 10 months out is a fool's errand. And exactly the measure of uncertainty needed to ensure the fight for the game's ultimate prize remains competitive.

You should have told them the Mets offered you an adjustable JetBlue-sponsored ball cap and two-for-one hot dogs during all Tuesday afternoon games if you would jump on their bandwagon instead. The Dodgers definitely would have matched. Honestly, you could have done better.
Love this. (And go halfsies on a pizza?)
 

SemperFidelisSox

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After seeing the contracts Ohtani and Yamamoto got, I wonder if NBP will have a harder time keeping future star players from trying to leave earlier.
 

mauidano

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The Dodgers are loaded on paper. However, the games are played on the field.

How did it work out for the Angels when Trout, Ohtani and Rendon were teammates?

I'll take the field of other teams versus the Dodgers. It's a long season.
 

Ale Xander

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The Dodgers are loaded on paper. However, the games are played on the field.

How did it work out for the Angels when Trout, Ohtani and Rendon were teammates?

I'll take the field of other teams versus the Dodgers. It's a long season.
Truth here but Dodgers have more than 3 players. If Vargas, Outman, and Lux (not sure when he gets back) perform to their potential, 116 is on the table.

But every Dodgers fan will tell you they need Betts, Freeman and Kershaw (if he doesn’t retire in the winter/spring) to perform in October.
 

axx

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But every Dodgers fan will tell you they need Betts, Freeman and Kershaw (if he doesn’t retire in the winter/spring) to perform in October.
Kershaw is a FA. Course they could resign him... but given that they just signed a pitcher and traded for another... I'm not sure there's room.
 

Ale Xander

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Kershaw is a FA. Course they could resign him... but given that they just signed a pitcher and traded for another... I'm not sure there's room.
He’s signing one year deals because he doesn’t know if this off-season is the one year he retires. I would be very very surprised if he goes anywhere else.