I dont really know Orlovsky's track record, but he has Daniels as the #1 QB in the draft, so we'll be able to talk ourselves into whatever QB we're left with.So I've built it up in my head that Maye is the guy and Daniels isn't, in which case I would trade back if Maye goes 2. But really, I have to trust in whatever their judgment is on the QBs. If they don't love the guy at 3, I'm fine trading back. They just can't get that wrong though.
Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?Im now thinking Pats should ask for the moon and the stars, and you move the pick if you can get that in a deal. Load up on assets and take a QB or two later. If you cant get the moon and stars, you take QB at 3 and go from there.
His track record is like everyone else's, a mixed bag. Was super high on Stroud last year, but was also pretty high on guys like Zach Wilson, Fields and Ridder. He also liked Mac Jones, and has been very, very vocal in his opinion that the Pats ruined him.I dont really know Orlovsky's track record, but he has Daniels as the #1 QB in the draft, so we'll be able to talk ourselves into whatever QB we're left with.
This is where I am as well. And I think you and I are the 2 votes that went that way.So I've built it up in my head that Maye is the guy and Daniels isn't, in which case I would trade back if Maye goes 2. But really, I have to trust in whatever their judgment is on the QBs. If they don't love the guy at 3, I'm fine trading back. They just can't get that wrong though.
Yeah that was my vote, and I would feel the same about a Daniels pick.This is where I am as well. And I think you and I are the 2 votes that went that way.
I'm not sold on Daniels, but I won't shit on the pick if they like him and take him.
I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
I think they should still take the best QB available and draft a QB flier in the 4-7 rounds.So I've built it up in my head that Maye is the guy and Daniels isn't, in which case I would trade back if Maye goes 2. But really, I have to trust in whatever their judgment is on the QBs. If they don't love the guy at 3, I'm fine trading back. They just can't get that wrong though.
I'd ask for more than this. Either a useful starting player or a R3 pick in addition to those picks.Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
We literally have evidence of this not being the case this season with Houston.I'd take that deal in a heartbeat.
Drafting a top 5 QB into a dumpster fire never helps to put the dumpster fire out, it just adds more fuel. The Pats are a dumpster fire right now. Trade back, get lots of assets, then take a QB toward the bottom of the first round or top of the second, sit him for two years and build up the team around him.
I'm super high on Maye, so if somehow he falls to #3, I could see drafting him, but I'm worried they'd start him right away which would be a mistake.
Maye/Daniels at 3, then Joe Milton much later - all the mocks have him going like 6th round or so. He's got enough talent to be intriguing as a late round flyer.I think they should still take the best QB available and draft a QB flier in the 4-7 rounds.
If MJH is available, it's going to be very hard not to want the team to draft him. He'll become expensive very quickly though, so might be easier to let that one go and build from the QB first
I was thinking 11,23, a 3rd and Jordan Addison for #3 and a 4th.Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
This 100%. Although I'd go a step further and steer away from drafting an earlier round QB period for now, and would instead stack Brissett with another younger FA vet flyer like Dobbs. As I personally like the overall probability odds of hitting on something that ends up being a good thing for you guys better going down that route.Drafting a top 5 QB into a dumpster fire never helps to put the dumpster fire out, it just adds more fuel.
We also literally have evidence that QBs can play at a highest level well into their 40s. Not only is that reading too much into an all time great season outlier imo, but it also (for opposing narrative purposes) totally understates just how much else Houston (who gets to play out of the cupcake division) appears to have gotten really right last winter within the effort of creating that outcome. Slowik bringing over some of that Shanahan magic might of helped in that tooWe literally have evidence of this not being the case this season with Houston.
Josh Dobbs is 29. And there's ample evidence he's not the QB answer to any question the Pats are asking. He's thrown about 500 passes in his career, about a full season's worth. He has 15 TD and 13 INT, averages only 5.8 YPA, and he's 3-11.This 100%. Although I'd go a step further and steer away from drafting an earlier round QB period for now, and would instead stack Brissett with another younger FA vet flyer like Dobbs. As I personally like the overall probability odds of hitting on something that ends up being a good thing for you guys better going down that route.
I'd ask for next year's second as well.Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
Yes, 100%. Id be all over that.Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
I'm with this mostly. Any trade offer for #3 needs to be one that is such a catastrophic overpay that the other GM might never get a job again. Like folks would be talking about this overpay for a decade at least before I'm even thinking about not taking one of the big 3 QBs with pick 3.Not taking a QB at 3 in this draft is fireable.
All day. But my guess is they could get slightly more than that from Minn.Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
I thought this at first, but there are a few mitigating factors:I'd ask for next year's second as well.
The thing that's bothering me is the TERRIBLE track record of early-drafted QBs. The article below is mind-blowing -- the chances that all 3 QBs drafted 1-3 will be above-average is close to zero. I'd much prefer to get more swings at the ball than roll the dice that pick #3 will be the franchise's savior.
https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-ranking-every-quarterback-class-since-2000
Are there, though? Two, sure. And if there was any reason to believe that Daniels or Williams would be available with the third pick, I'd say QB no question. Same if we had landed Ridley. But I'm not sure Maye is in the same class as those two, and the question then becomes do you want the third-best QB or the clear #1 WR? I don't think it's as obvious to go with the QB as everyone else seems to.The Pats have a desperate need for a franchise QB. There are three guys that virtually every scout has as potential franchise QBs.
Here are all the QBs drafted with the second or third pick in the draft in the past 10 years or so. Quite a trend to buck (aside from Stroud): CJ Stroud (drafted 2d, 2023), Trey Lance (drafted 3d, 2021), Sam Darnold (drafted 3d, 2018), Blake Bortles (drafted 3d, 2014), Zach Wilson (drafted 2d, 2021), Mitch Trubisky (drafted 2d, 2017), Carson Wentz (drafted 2d, 2016), Marcus Mariota (drafted 2d, 2015)I thought this at first, but there are a few mitigating factors:
- Lots of times these guys are known as overdrafts at the time and they go top 5 because someone needs a QB badly. There are also a lot of picks that are just made by franchises who had no direction and bad leadership at the time, like every Jets pick, Bortles, Harrington/ Carr. If that's the case with this Patriots team we will find out in other ways and this conversation doesn't matter much.
- I would expect that QB evaluation, particularly mental side, has improved since the early 2000s. JaMarcus Russell would probably not go #1 today (I would hope) so a lot of the history is irrelevant.
- There is no rule that there has to be an equal number of good prospects every year or that 3 can't be successful in the same year. If you need a QB and it's a bad year you might reach too (see bullet 1), so guys get a first round pick label when really they are not first round prospects (Pickett comes to mind). Sometimes there aren't good prospects but this year there are 3.
- I pay little attention to college, but it feels like some of the guys who didn't do as great in the pros were those who rocketed up draft lists based on their performance in their final year while the players who had been considered strong prospects their whole careers did better. Like, Luck, Mannings, Stafford, Lawrence, were all huge HS prospects and never really lost their status as "potential franchise guys" from their first college game. Daniels has risen up lists this year based on his play but the other two have been pretty much consensus all year (which makes me feel a little better about Maye)
They didn't only change the QB. They also changed the head coach. It looks like Ryans is turning the franchise around. We can only hope that Mayo looks like as good of a hire this time next year, but the odds are against it.We literally have evidence of this not being the case this season with Houston.
These guys really have nothing to do with whether or not Daniels or Maye is gonna be good.Here are all the QBs drafted with the second or third pick in the draft in the past 10 years or so. Quite a trend to buck (aside from Stroud): CJ Stroud (drafted 2d, 2023), Trey Lance (drafted 3d, 2021), Sam Darnold (drafted 3d, 2018), Blake Bortles (drafted 3d, 2014), Zach Wilson (drafted 2d, 2021), Mitch Trubisky (drafted 2d, 2017), Carson Wentz (drafted 2d, 2016), Marcus Mariota (drafted 2d, 2015)
This is pretty much where I’m at. I am not sold on Maye, not a fan of his “do I throw or scramble” decision making. But I’m fine if they take him, knowing full we he may not end up to be much better than Zach Wilson.Are there, though? Two, sure. And if there was any reason to believe that Daniels or Williams would be available with the third pick, I'd say QB no question. Same if we had landed Ridley. But I'm not sure Maye is in the same class as those two, and the question then becomes do you want the third-best QB or the clear #1 WR? I don't think it's as obvious to go with the QB as everyone else seems to.
I'm with you on this. I would love for the Pats to try to trade up to take Williams. However, now that Fields is gone it seems very unlikely that Chicago will trade the 1st. There was speculation a while ago that Williams did not want to go to Chicago and was considering opting out of this years draft if they had the first pick. That has been shot down since. Even if it were true, they most likely would only trade with Washington, to make sure they get their next best choice QB. Trading with NE still leaves them open to not getting a QB that they really want.Take whichever top 3 QB is left. I hope it's Maye. I hope more that it's whoever will actually be a better player.
Try like hell to trade up to #1 and take Williams.
Maybe I'd take that deal but only...only if they can definitely get JJ McCarthy with 11. But I voted take whatever QB... Daniels or Maye at 3.Define the moon and stars. Say it's Minnesota. Is 11, 23, and their 1st rounder next year enough?
This is 100% correct. The reason we have 3 QB's at the top of the draft this year is because they are as good as prospects as any draft class in memory. Drake Maye coming out of HS was the #1 in NC, #4 QB in his class and #21 ranked player overall. Caleb Williams was the #2 QB (Quinn Ewers who is still at TX and may be the top QB next year was #1 in the class per 247sports). Daniels is really the only guy to shoot up the boards do to his final season work in college.These guys really have nothing to do with whether or not Daniels or Maye is gonna be good.
WIlliams and Maye have been consensus top of the board picks since last year. Daniels has now joined them. There really aren't too many that think they're being overdrafted at top 3 (and of course you can always find someone that says so, but generally speaking...). You heard plenty of that regarding Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, etc.
You should see the track record of non-early-drafted QBs!I'd ask for next year's second as well.
The thing that's bothering me is the TERRIBLE track record of early-drafted QBs. The article below is mind-blowing -- the chances that all 3 QBs drafted 1-3 will be above-average is close to zero. I'd much prefer to get more swings at the ball than roll the dice that pick #3 will be the franchise's savior.
https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-draft-ranking-every-quarterback-class-since-2000
2021 was better, was it not?The reason we have 3 QB's at the top of the draft this year is because they are as good as prospects as any draft class in memory
I don't think many people thought that. It was considered very good, but only Lawrence was a multi-year top prospect. I think you could make the case that 2021 had a deeper tier 2, ie a top 5 vs a top 3 but the top 3 this year is better than 2021. I think there is a good case that this is the best top 3 QBs since 2012. 2015 had a big top 2 but no 3rd, 2017 had a good top 3, but the NFL kind of underrated 2 of them, 2020 is probably the closest top 3 more recently.2021 was better, was it not?
No way, not IMO. At least not the top 3. I think Lawrence and Caleb Williams are probably comparable in terms of hype and how long they've been talked about as their class' #1. But Drake Maye is a next level prospect compared to Zach Wilson or Trey Lance (who went #2 and #3). Zach Wilson coming out of high school was the 13th ranked player in Utah. Drake Maye was the 21st ranked player in the country. He turned down offers from schools like Idaho and Fresno State to go to BYU, while Maye was turning down offers from Bama and Georgia and Clemson (because he has a family legacy at UNC). Trey Lance was recruited by nobody coming out of high school, ended up at North Dakota State where he barely threw the ball for one season, then got hurt the following season, then declared for the draft. Daniels just won the Heisman playing in the SEC.2021 was better, was it not?