Speier had an interesting article in the Glob about players who had age 22 seasons of 3 WAR or higher.
"The 2015 Red Sox were just the 16th in history to feature two or more players with a season of 3.0 WAR or better at age 22 or younger, and one of just three (along with the 1970 Reds and the 1909 Tigers) to feature multiple players with a 4.0 WAR or better in that age demographic."
Mookie had a 6 WAR season in 2015, while Xander had 4.6.
There's a lot of evidence that young players tend to not have smooth upward development arcs, but instead often go up and down from season to season.
"Bogaerts and Betts became the 74th and 75th middle-of-the-field players ever to post a WAR of 3.0 or better in their age 22 season. Of the previous 73 (a group that included 26 Hall of Famers), decline at age 23 proved a common occurrence.
While 27 of the 73 players (37 percent) maintained their level or improved, 46 (63 percent) suffered some decline at age 23, with half of those players enduring declines of 2.1 wins or more. On average, the group of players who were worth three or more wins at age 22 saw their value drop by 20 percent (and 1.0 wins) at age 23."
It'd be great if both of these guys were in that 37% group who actually got better at age 23, but no one should be surprised if either or both of these guys suffer some decline this year. And the team can handle some decline from them. If they both had 4 WAR seasons, that would be dropoffs but they would still be excellent players.
But if either has the 2.1 or more WAR dropoff that 31.5% of the similar-age players had, that would be a real blow to the Red Sox this season. The silver lining would be that many great players had a dropoff at age 23 but then still went on to become superstars. Even if Xander or Mookie has a dropoff in 2016 like the age-23 falls of Tulowitzki (-6.0) Beltran (-3.9) A-Rod (-3.8) or Johnny Bench (-3.3) it wouldn't be necessarily a huge blow to their careers. Just a huge blow to the Red Sox season.
Maybe either or both will have Cal Ripken-like age 23 gains of almost 2 wins, and we'll all be ecstatic.
But I'm hoping that we the fans aren't expecting too much from these guys so soon.
The Steamer projections pretty much match the Speier article, and predict both guys to lose about 1 WAR next year.
Steamer predicts Xander to hit .293/.343/.441 with a .339 wOBA in 2016, good for 3.7 WAR, which would be a dropoff of almost a win. The Fan projections for him there are a full win higher, 4.7.
Steamer has Mookie hitting .300/.361/.474 with a .361 wOBA, with a 5.0 WAR-- again, a dropoff of a win from last year. The Fan projections for him are a little higher, 5.2 WAR.
If they hit around their Steamer-projected numbers, then we can all live with it just fine, even though it would be a dropoff from age 22. Either of them falling short of the Steamer numbers would be a hit to the 2016 Red Sox though.
"The 2015 Red Sox were just the 16th in history to feature two or more players with a season of 3.0 WAR or better at age 22 or younger, and one of just three (along with the 1970 Reds and the 1909 Tigers) to feature multiple players with a 4.0 WAR or better in that age demographic."
Mookie had a 6 WAR season in 2015, while Xander had 4.6.
There's a lot of evidence that young players tend to not have smooth upward development arcs, but instead often go up and down from season to season.
"Bogaerts and Betts became the 74th and 75th middle-of-the-field players ever to post a WAR of 3.0 or better in their age 22 season. Of the previous 73 (a group that included 26 Hall of Famers), decline at age 23 proved a common occurrence.
While 27 of the 73 players (37 percent) maintained their level or improved, 46 (63 percent) suffered some decline at age 23, with half of those players enduring declines of 2.1 wins or more. On average, the group of players who were worth three or more wins at age 22 saw their value drop by 20 percent (and 1.0 wins) at age 23."
It'd be great if both of these guys were in that 37% group who actually got better at age 23, but no one should be surprised if either or both of these guys suffer some decline this year. And the team can handle some decline from them. If they both had 4 WAR seasons, that would be dropoffs but they would still be excellent players.
But if either has the 2.1 or more WAR dropoff that 31.5% of the similar-age players had, that would be a real blow to the Red Sox this season. The silver lining would be that many great players had a dropoff at age 23 but then still went on to become superstars. Even if Xander or Mookie has a dropoff in 2016 like the age-23 falls of Tulowitzki (-6.0) Beltran (-3.9) A-Rod (-3.8) or Johnny Bench (-3.3) it wouldn't be necessarily a huge blow to their careers. Just a huge blow to the Red Sox season.
Maybe either or both will have Cal Ripken-like age 23 gains of almost 2 wins, and we'll all be ecstatic.
But I'm hoping that we the fans aren't expecting too much from these guys so soon.
The Steamer projections pretty much match the Speier article, and predict both guys to lose about 1 WAR next year.
Steamer predicts Xander to hit .293/.343/.441 with a .339 wOBA in 2016, good for 3.7 WAR, which would be a dropoff of almost a win. The Fan projections for him there are a full win higher, 4.7.
Steamer has Mookie hitting .300/.361/.474 with a .361 wOBA, with a 5.0 WAR-- again, a dropoff of a win from last year. The Fan projections for him are a little higher, 5.2 WAR.
If they hit around their Steamer-projected numbers, then we can all live with it just fine, even though it would be a dropoff from age 22. Either of them falling short of the Steamer numbers would be a hit to the 2016 Red Sox though.