Would you trade Devers+ for Soto?

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

There are a few buckets that people fall into regarding acquiring Soto, but one of the options I haven't seen discussed is including Devers in a deal for Soto.

Why would either team do this deal?

First, this deal would be contingent on both Soto and Devers agreeing to contract extensions prior to the trade. Biggest hurdle is here.

Second, the Nats were willing to spend up to $30M a year on their offer to Soto. While Devers isn't Soto, they could offer a contract 2-4 years shorter or at a slightly less AAV. They lose Soto, but they acquire cap flexibility and a top end player that slots into the middle of their order to replace Soto.

The Sox lose Devers, but they get a better player that they can afford. He slots into the middle of the lineup, and they replace the generational talent they lost with Mookie. They may not feel Devers is worth 10 years @ $25-30M into his late 30's, but Soto is only 23. 12 years at $420 puts him in the top cash bracket for AAV ($35M), and allows team/player to determine end of career contract at 35. Because Devers is young and a franchise cornerstone, they also wouldn't have to invest anywhere near the draft capital in the deal.

So - If you could acquire Soto by trading Devers+ (lets say Mayers is now off limits), would you do it?

 

[RIrooter09]

I'm not even convinced Soto is a better player, so no way.

 

[JOBU]

Yeah I would. Soto is a phenomenal talent and 2 years younger than Devers. However if the Red Sox can’t afford Devers at 10 years at 30 million per they won’t sign Soto for 400 million plus. But yeah I make that trade. I would not throw in any prospect of great significance into the trade to make it happen.

edit: I do think Soto is better but not significantly so. My decision is based mostly on the fact the Sox would be getting 2 more prime years plus out of Soto (in theory).

 

[sodenj5]

I don’t know exactly why the Nats would think this is a good deal because they’re actually losing a cost controlled year swapping Soto for Devers.

I don’t think I see the net gain for Boston swapping them and giving up what will likely be a considerable haul of prospects as well.

The entire premise of the Soto acquisition is giving up potential for realized talent. You can sleep at night if Mayer have or Casas turns into an All-Star because you would have still had a net positive return.

Giving up Devers turns that on its ear for me. He’s still entering his prime and will likely command a similar deal with a similar skill set and defensive profile.

I think I’d rather just keep the guy we already know mashes in this environment and keep the prospects.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yeah I would. Soto is a phenomenal talent and 2 years younger than Devers. However if the Red Sox can’t afford Devers at 10 years at 30 million per they won’t sign Soto for 400 million plus. But yeah I make that trade. I would not throw in any prospect of great significance into the trade to make it happen.

edit: I do think Soto is better but not significantly so. My decision is based mostly on the fact the Sox would be getting 2 more prime years plus out of Soto (in theory).

If they resign neither, trading for Soto would make a lot of sense depending on what the + is. They get an extra year of control.

 

[Ale Xander]

Devers plays a more premium position (maybe not well but I’m not sure how good Soto is defensively either) and we’ve seen him grow up and prosper in this organization so I don’t think I even trade him straight up, as a fan.

Not saying it wouldn’t make sense though from a purely objective viewpoint.

 

[PRabbit]

The gap in talent and perceived future production isn't worth the ransom in prospects it'd take to get Soto. No.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Why would the Nationals do this? They don't want to swap into a similar situation when they aren't ready to compete. They want multiple players.

 

[Seels]

I think Soto is a safer bet to age more gracefully than Devers. In general, you're probably more safe betting that Soto will get 4-7 WAR 10 years from now than Devers will.

Whether I would give up a shitload of prospects for this doesn't really matter as 1. The Sox wouldn't and 2. The Sox wouldn't make the necessary extension either way

I'm not convinced Soto is a better player than Devers. But I am convinced he is a safer bet to have a higher floor more consistently. All the same if the Sox are going to give someone $250-$500m, I'd prefer it be someone that they've already had on their team.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Why would the Nationals do this? They don't want to swap into a similar situation when they aren't ready to compete. They want multiple players.

They said they wanted players and prospects at all levels. If they can sign Devers prior to a trade, they get their middle of the order bat and a few prospects to boot.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

They said they wanted players and prospects at all levels. If they can sign Devers prior to a trade, they get their middle of the order bat and a few prospects to boot.

But they can just keep the better player and extend him instead, and he's 23. Devers is going to need a mega contract at a worse age.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

But they can just keep the better player and extend him instead, and he's 23. Devers is going to need a mega contract at a worse age.

But they already offered him $29M a year for 15 years and he balked. They aren't getting him for $30M a year, but they most likely WOULD get Devers at that price.

 

[Ale Xander]

But they can just keep the better player and extend him instead, and he's 23. Devers is going to need a mega contract at a worse age.

They can’t
He doesn’t want to stay there
At least it appears that way.

 

[sodenj5]

They can’t
He doesn’t want to stay there
At least it appears that way.

This is the key cog in the entire thing. It doesn’t seem to be at least entirely about money. Soto has said he’s tired of losing and wants to play for a competitive team.

It doesn’t really change anything from Boston’s perspective, but it forces Washington’s hand if he refuses to sign an extension there because he doesn’t want to be on a bad team.

Short of a career ending injury in the next 2.5 years, Soto is getting paid by someone. Why not have your cake and eat it too, from his perspective.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

If the rest of the deal were reasonable, yes, I’d make that trade. As much as I love Rafi, I’d prefer Soto’s elite plate discipline. Which would maybe rub off on other hitters a little.

 

[BoSox Rule]

Well the Nationals wouldn’t trade 2.5 years for Soto for a year and half of Devers+ so.

 

[Rovin Romine]

So - If you could acquire Soto by trading Devers+ (lets say Mayers is now off limits), would you do it?

No. Absolutely not.

When it comes to current quality, they're basically a push due to defense. Soto is better with the bat, but is an averageish-to-belowish corner OF. (So he'd play LF or RF at Fenway for half his games.)

When it comes to future certainty (contract v. production), they both would need to be paid a lot of money. Soto will get more due to his age and his less flexible negotiating posture - why wouldn't he test the FA market? Why would he give a shit about playing in Boston? So you'd be essentially trading for the more difficult (and more expensive) player to sign.
But put that aside - let's assume you actually can sign one or the other (meaning they both equally want to sign with Boston and all you have to do is pay). Let's also (foolishly) assume there are no no-trade clauses and no opt-outs. In a long term stable deal, Soto gets you a couple of prime years more than Devers (assuming no injuries) and then you're likely overpaying them for their declining years. So, even with that automatically-going-to-sign assumption, is the overall Soto package likely to be worth those couple of prime years? Is it likely to be more worth a Devers package?

When it comes to club construction, the team (any team really) needs a long lineup with few black holes. Clustered talent can be pitched around. (As we have seen again and again this year.) Soto really does not solve that problem in any way. And depending on the extra prospects shipped off, and the AAV of his contract, it might make the ability to promote or sign complimentary talent more difficult.

So no. And I have no idea why anyone would think this is a remotely good idea.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I wouldn't trade Devers+ for Soto for the main reason that, in my dream world, I'm adding Soto to Devers as the foundation for the next decade and I trust Chaim to replenish the farm if he loses Mayer, Casas, Bello, etc.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I wouldn't trade Devers+ for Soto for the main reason that, in my dream world, I'm adding Soto to Devers as the foundation for the next decade and I trust Chaim to replenish the farm if he loses Mayer, Casas, Bello, etc.

That's my thinking too. Soto for Devers is pretty much replacing the same type of player (although I recognize Soto is better). I'd like Soto and Devers to go toe-to-toe with Judge/Stanton and become the next Manny/Ortiz.

Prospects are a renewable resource, there's always going to be another draft. There isn't always a Juan Soto. Get him while you can.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

That's my thinking too. Soto for Devers is pretty much replacing the same type of player (although I recognize Soto is better). I'd like Soto and Devers to go toe-to-toe with Judge/Stanton and become the next Manny/Ortiz.

Prospects are a renewable resource, there's always going to be another draft. There isn't always a Juan Soto. Get him while you can.

Wait, is this a "make a prospect proposal for Soto" since Devers seems to be a "no"?
I suspect that the drafting of additional SS's this past week is possibly to build up the farm for exactly this- including Mayer in a deal for Soto. I'd do that assuming that there'd be a deal worked out.... if not then I wouldn't include Mayer.

 

[sodenj5]

Wait, is this a "make a prospect proposal for Soto" since Devers seems to be a "no"?
I suspect that the drafting of additional SS's this past week is possibly to build up the farm for exactly this- including Mayer in a deal for Soto. I'd do that assuming that there'd be a deal worked out.... if not then I wouldn't include Mayer.

The drafting of SS’s is coincidental because most high level high schoolers play SS and CF and teams eventually find a spot for them in the minors.

 

[Ale Xander]

Wait, is this a "make a prospect proposal for Soto" since Devers seems to be a "no"?
I suspect that the drafting of additional SS's this past week is possibly to build up the farm for exactly this- including Mayer in a deal for Soto. I'd do that assuming that there'd be a deal worked out.... if not then I wouldn't include Mayer.

the combination of drafting SS's and signing Story (who is excelling defensively at 2B) would seem to suggest they can trade Yorke who isn't a franchise-altering player like Mayer could be.

I'm with JMOH
You can replace prospects
GO for Manny/ORtiz combo if you can

2024
Duran CF
Devers 3B
Soto LF
Casas DH
Mayer SS
Story 2B
RF signing
Dalbec/1B signing
C signing

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Wait, is this a "make a prospect proposal for Soto" since Devers seems to be a "no"?
I suspect that the drafting of additional SS's this past week is possibly to build up the farm for exactly this- including Mayer in a deal for Soto. I'd do that assuming that there'd be a deal worked out.... if not then I wouldn't include Mayer.

No. This isn't a prospect proposal, but the OP asked whether I'd trade Devers for Soto. I answered no. But, I want them to get Soto; so since I'd still like them to do the thing without Devers, the next logical option would be to trade a boatload of prospects, which I have zero issues doing. To me, prospects are not a finite resource. You can always get more next year or in the International Draft. Also baseball is different than hoops or football where the likelihood that an eight-round pick could become a star just as much as a first-rounder.

Sorry if that was vague.

 

[BigSoxFan]

the combination of drafting SS's and signing Story (who is excelling defensively at 2B) would seem to suggest they can trade Yorke who isn't a franchise-altering player like Mayer could be.

I'm with JMOH
You can replace prospects
GO for Manny/ORtiz combo if you can

2024
Duran CF
Devers 3B
Soto LF
Casas DH
Mayer SS
Story 2B
RF signing
Dalbec/1B signing
C signing

If you’re trading for Soto, both Mayer and Casas are likely gone. I’m fine with that but those would be 2024 spots that would need to be filled.

 

[AlNipper49]

It’s a moot point since Devers isn’t what they are looking for. If all was equal and they were both committed to signing market rate contracts I, like everybody else (including Devers’ mother) would prefer Soto.

we frankly don’t havewhat the Nats are looking for - namely a Mayers level prospect (or two) who has seen major league pitching and probably three other prospects in the top 100. I’d easily give up Mayer, Bello and let’s say Binelas plus other stuff for him. That’s not even a question.

Five years ago I might not say that. Position players got you to the playoffs and pitchers took it from there. With the new short starts we’ve been seeing I’m more likely to put a higher percentage of the payroll in the positional players, particularly given pitching has historically been a more variable outcome.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Wait, is this a "make a prospect proposal for Soto" since Devers seems to be a "no"?
I suspect that the drafting of additional SS's this past week is possibly to build up the farm for exactly this- including Mayer in a deal for Soto. I'd do that assuming that there'd be a deal worked out.... if not then I wouldn't include Mayer.

Teams don't draft for need and there's already talk that Romero's long term position is 2b. And as someone else noted, pretty much every RHH HS positional player drafted in the early rounds is a SS because the best HS players are playing SS.

the combination of drafting SS's and signing Story (who is excelling defensively at 2B) would seem to suggest they can trade Yorke who isn't a franchise-altering player like Mayer could be.

I'm with JMOH
You can replace prospects
GO for Manny/ORtiz combo if you can

2024
Duran CF
Devers 3B
Soto LF
Casas DH
Mayer SS
Story 2B
RF signing
Dalbec/1B signing
C signing

I could see trading Yorke but you aren't getting Soto without Mayer and Casas. You can also "replace" prospects, but not really. If prospects are so replaceable, you'd have 0 qualms throwing in Mayer and Casas. The Sox aren't going to be drafting 4th very often (hopefully not, anyway). It's a little harder to get the premium talent drafting 24th. Romero isn't going to be a top 20 prospect in all of baseball coming out of college. Won't even be top 100.

Who the Sox drafted this year has no impact at all on any moves the team makes this year. Unless it's being a PTBNL in a trade if that's still a possibility.

 

[Ale Xander]

The Sox aren't going to be drafting 4th very often (hopefully not, anyway). It's a little harder to get the premium talent drafting 24th.

That's exactly why I want to keep Mayer, if at all possible. My thought was you can replace the guys like Yorke, Binelas, and Bello.

 

[dhappy42]

Yes, but it depends on the “+.”

As for a mega-contract extension, Soto will probably age better than Devers.

 

[JCizzle]

I could see trading Yorke but you aren't getting Soto without Mayer and Casas. You can also "replace" prospects, but not really. If prospects are so replaceable, you'd have 0 qualms throwing in Mayer and Casas. The Sox aren't going to be drafting 4th very often (hopefully not, anyway). It's a little harder to get the premium talent drafting 24th. Romero isn't going to be a top 20 prospect in all of baseball coming out of college. Won't even be top 100.

Who the Sox drafted this year has no impact at all on any moves the team makes this year. Unless it's being a PTBNL in a trade if that's still a possibility.

If it's so hard to "replace" prospects, then how do the Dodgers still have a ~top 5 farm system despite recent trades for Mookie, Turner/Scherzer, and some impact graduates? And they haven't made a top-5 pick in recent years. Admittedly they're a great organization, but that's why Chaim is getting paid.

Edit: that was an MLB.com 2022 ranking. It looks like fangraphs has them ~15th.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

If you’re trading for Soto, both Mayer and Casas are likely gone. I’m fine with that but those would be 2024 spots that would need to be filled.

Yeah, the plan seems to be get Soto and build the rest of the team, primarily via FA, around him. To which I wonder, why can’t the Nationals do that?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

That's exactly why I want to keep Mayer, if at all possible. My thought was you can replace the guys like Yorke, Binelas, and Bello.

How much value can Yorke and Binelas have, though? They are both having pretty lousy seasons.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

That's exactly why I want to keep Mayer, if at all possible. My thought was you can replace the guys like Yorke, Binelas, and Bello.

Do you mean Rafaela? Because I don't see anyone caring at all if Binelas is moved. Rafaela is interesting because his ceiling is the moon but he's not likely to get there. If he was traded and hits his ceiling, it would suck serious ass. Bleis is another one.

I also love Brayan Bello and would hate to move him but TINSTAPP.

I just heavily disagree with prospects are replaceable. They can always use money to land a big bat, they can't use money to land Marcelo Mayer.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

How much value can Yorke and Binelas have, though? They are both having pretty lousy seasons.

Yorke is 20 and has been battling injuries all year. He might have lost some value but it's still considerable.

Binelas? He's a throw in at best. I think the poster meant Rafaela.

 

[jon abbey]

Teams don't draft for need

I just want to push back on this a bit, I think that it's less universally true than it used to be. There are fewer farm teams now so it's easier to assess organizational needs, and sometimes it is obvious. The Angels last year drafted 20 rounds of just pitchers, that's not because they were the best player available every single round they picked.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If it's so hard to "replace" prospects, then how do the Dodgers still have a ~top 5 farm system despite recent trades for Mookie, Turner/Scherzer, and some impact graduates? And they haven't made a top-5 pick in recent years. Admittedly they're a great organization, but that's why Chaim is getting paid.

Edit: that was an MLB.com 2022 ranking. It looks like fangraphs has them ~15th.

And what prospects did the Dodgers trade that were comparable to Mayer and Casas, besides Ruiz? Serious question because I wasn't paying super attention but looking at bbref, they didn't exactly empty the farm.

Some prospects are replaceable. The ones in the top 20, not so much. Farm systems are heavily rated based on their top talent. If the Sox traded Yorke, Walter and Rafaela away, they'd still be in the top 10 in farm system because they'd still have 2 prospects in the top 20.

I don't know why this is such a debate. Marcelo Mayer is not the same as Matthew Lugo.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I just want to push back on this a bit, I think that it's less universally true than it used to be. There are fewer farm teams now so it's easier to assess organizational needs, and sometimes it is obvious. The Angels last year drafted 20 rounds of just pitchers, that's not because they were the best player available every single round they picked.

The Angels are also a terrible organization but fair enough.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

You can also "replace" prospects, but not really. If prospects are so replaceable, you'd have 0 qualms throwing in Mayer and Casas. The Sox aren't going to be drafting 4th very often (hopefully not, anyway). It's a little harder to get the premium talent drafting 24th. Romero isn't going to be a top 20 prospect in all of baseball coming out of college. Won't even be top 100.

I understand what you're saying, but MLB prospects--even the highly regarded ones--are very far from a sure thing. Mayer certainly has a leg up on his competition due to where he was drafted and will be given a lot of chances to succeed, but as you know there are tons of high draft picks who have washed out.

However, and this might sound like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth but I'm really not, I trust this front office when it comes to amateur scouting. While it's not my primary focus, they've done a really good job of replenishing the system and I doubt that it will change going forward. That's why I don't have as much fear of them trading prospects. And while I liked Dombrowski* a lot and trusted his judgement on which minor leaguer is chaff and which is wheat, he wasn't really good when it came to amateur ranks. * Obviously the scouting department is more than just DD (or CB for that matter) but they're the Heads of Baseball Ops and they get credit/blame.

 

[JCizzle]

And what prospects did the Dodgers trade that were comparable to Mayer and Casas, besides Ruiz? Serious question because I wasn't paying super attention but looking at bbref, they didn't exactly empty the farm.

Some prospects are replaceable. The ones in the top 20, not so much. Farm systems are heavily rated based on their top talent. If the Sox traded Yorke, Walter and Rafaela away, they'd still be in the top 10 in farm system because they'd still have 2 prospects in the top 20.

I don't know why this is such a debate. Marcelo Mayer is not the same as Matthew Lugo.

According to this, #1, #2, #17 for Scherzer & Turner. Downs was the 44th in MLB when they traded him to us, so I'm guessing he was ranked pretty highly in the Dodgers farm.

Max Scherzer, Trea Turner traded to Dodgers (mlb.com)
Dodgers get: RHP Max Scherzer, SS Trea Turner
Nationals get: C Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers' No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline); RHP Josiah Gray (No. 2); RHP Gerardo Carrillo (No. 17); OF Donovan Casey (unranked)

Still #1 farm system this offseason according to Keith Law.
MLB 2022 farm system rankings: Keith Law grades all 30 teams on prospects, with the Dodgers at No. 1 - The Athletic

My point is that the Dodgers manage to replenish their system despite trading away legit talent and never drafting highly. They're a well run organization with deep pockets. That's what we're paying Chaim to do - if we trade top prospects, he should be able to replace them even without top-5 picks. I'm not sure if it's the right move to push in all the chips for Soto, but Chaim should be able to identify replacement talent if we do.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Replacing Mayer is the toughest part of this. He was the #4 pick and probably should have gone #1. The Sox (hopefully) won't be in position to draft a guy like him for quite some time. But they will have plenty of opportunities to find more Casas', Bello's, Yorke's, etc. Guys like that will be available to the Sox every year in the draft. It all comes down to their scouting and develop. So, if you think that you have good people in place to keep that scouting machine going, I don't see why there would be a ton of angst about replacing them over the span of a few years. In the short-term, you may have to rely more on FA than you'd prefer to fill holes on the MLB team but in the long run, the farm system should be fine if your drafting/development operation is doing what it needs to do.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Isn’t it too early to know that, though? Bloom has certainly done a great job at improving how well the Sox system is rated, but in terms of developing major league players (or turning drafted players into major leagers via trade), it’s too soon to know. A systems ranking on its own means little; until that talent is converted into value for the big league club.

 

[Ale Xander]

Isn’t it too early to know that, though? Bloom has certainly done a great job at improving how well the Sox system is rated, but in terms of developing major league players (or turning drafted players into major leagers via trade), it’s too soon to know. A systems ranking on its own means little; until that talent is converted into value for the big league club.

Yup until a homedrafted and grown player helps you win a WS (last 20 year spoiled fan) system ranking means almost nothing

the 2004 starters and playoff pitchers had only one homedrafted and grown player (Nixon, a rare top 10 pick for you), and zero of your pitching starters, and not your closer or set up guys. (Did have 2 guys you got fairly young and developed, due to a generational trade larceny, the catcher and #3 starter converted from reliever)

 

[chawson]

I wouldn't trade Devers+ for Soto for the main reason that, in my dream world, I'm adding Soto to Devers as the foundation for the next decade and I trust Chaim to replenish the farm if he loses Mayer, Casas, Bello, etc.

I agree with this. “Devers for Soto” seems like a needlessly heated thought exercise built on a false binary.

Replenishing the farm does not seem difficult under Bloom. He showed with the Yorke and Whitlock picks that their scouting is indeed advanced, and he’s found valuable pieces very cheaply (Schreiber, Pivetta, Strahm, Renfroe/Binelas, Hernández).

We also can’t tell from here what ripple effects that building a team around long-term deals for Soto and Devers might spark. The Red Sox are dogged by a reputation of excessive thrift under Bloom — most of it undeserved, imo — but the Mookie trade has set up that narrative and it’ll be intact until something breaks it. I’d like for the team to be seen by players as unequivocal contenders every year, a place where they can go if they want to win. Devers and Soto in the fold for the next decade-plus would convey that quite well.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I understand what you're saying, but MLB prospects--even the highly regarded ones--are very far from a sure thing. Mayer certainly has a leg up on his competition due to where he was drafted and will be given a lot of chances to succeed, but as you know there are tons of high draft picks who have washed out.

However, and this might sound like I'm talking out of both sides of my mouth but I'm really not, I trust this front office when it comes to amateur scouting. While it's not my primary focus, they've done a really good job of replenishing the system and I doubt that it will change going forward. That's why I don't have as much fear of them trading prospects. And while I liked Dombrowski* a lot and trusted his judgement on which minor leaguer is chaff and which is wheat, he wasn't really good when it came to amateur ranks. * Obviously the scouting department is more than just DD (or CB for that matter) but they're the Heads of Baseball Ops and they get credit/blame.

I guess it depends on your definition of a sure thing. There's always going to be some players who fail but Top 20 prospects are closer to sure things than not, top 10 especially so. They aren't very far from sure. Hitters, anyway. Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts were sure things and both worked out. One obviously better than the other.

If a sure thing is Marcelo Mayer putting up 6+ WAR seasons, yeah. There are no sure things. If it's him putting up 2-3 WAR seasons? Pretty good bet as long as he stays healthy.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I agree with this. “Devers for Soto” seems like a needlessly heated thought exercise built on a false binary.

Replenishing the farm does not seem difficult under Bloom. He showed with the Yorke and Whitlock picks that their scouting is indeed advanced, and he’s found valuable pieces very cheaply (Schreiber, Pivetta, Strahm, Renfroe/Binelas, Hernández).

We also can’t tell from here what ripple effects that building a team around long-term deals for Soto and Devers might spark. The Red Sox are dogged by a reputation of excessive thrift under Bloom — most of it undeserved, imo — but the Mookie trade has set up that narrative and it’ll be intact until something breaks it. I’d like for the team to be seen by players as unequivocal contenders every year, a place where they can go if they want to win. Devers and Soto in the fold for the next decade-plus would convey that quite well.

Yup, and from a pure entertainment standpoint, a Devers/Soto combo would be incredible to watch. We've seen 4 titles in under 2 decades. I'm not very title driven at this point. Would be great if it happens but, ultimately, I just want to be entertained while hopefully watching competitive teams. This ownership group has nothing to prove to the fans but, as we know, fans can be fickle and undeserved narratives often develop.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Replacing Mayer is the toughest part of this. He was the #4 pick and probably should have gone #1. The Sox (hopefully) won't be in position to draft a guy like him for quite some time. But they will have plenty of opportunities to find more Casas', Bello's, Yorke's, etc. Guys like that will be available to the Sox every year in the draft. It all comes down to their scouting and develop. So, if you think that you have good people in place to keep that scouting machine going, I don't see why there would be a ton of angst about replacing them over the span of a few years. In the short-term, you may have to rely more on FA than you'd prefer to fill holes on the MLB team but in the long run, the farm system should be fine if your drafting/development operation is doing what it needs to do.

They were incredibly lucky to end up with a talent like Casas at pick 26. It's not quite like saying there will be opportunities to draft Mike Piazza in the 62nd round but same idea.

There's always talent available but expecting the Sox to end up with a Casas, Bello or Yorke type talent at pick 26 isn't a very good approach to building a farm.

Plus once a player is established, it doesn't really matter where they were picked. Looking at draft position and suggesting the Sox will have an opportunity to snag another Casas is the rosiest of outcomes. It's like trading Rafaela because there are always international players available for $10,000 that don't count against the pool.

edit: Actually, it's saying they'll have opportunities to get a top 20 prospect in all of baseball with the 26th pick.

 

[BigSoxFan]

They were incredibly lucky to end up with a talent like Casas at pick 26. It's not quite like saying there will be opportunities to draft Mike Piazza in the 62nd round but same idea.

There's always talent available but expecting the Sox to end up with a Casas, Bello or Yorke type talent at pick 26 isn't a very good approach to building a farm.

Plus once a player is established, it doesn't really matter where they were picked. Looking at draft position and suggesting the Sox will have an opportunity to snag another Casas is the rosiest of outcomes. It's like trading Rafaela because there are always international players available for $10,000 that don't count against the pool.

Players emerge every year from all over the draft. You don't need a Casas every year in the first round, you just need to keep getting quality guys you can develop. And there are clearly other ways to obtain prospects, such as via trade, taking on a bad deal (like JBJ), etc. The Red Sox will have to constantly replenish the farm system regardless of whether or not they make a huge splash with Soto. Trading a few top prospects in 2022 makes the replenishment effort more difficult. But they will need to replenish anyways in the event guys get injured, don't progress how we hope, etc.

I'm not using the rosiest of outcomes like you are suggesting, I'm just stating the fact that they will have plenty of opportunities to replenish the farm.

 

[dhappy42]

How adamant have the Nats been about including Corbin in any Soto deal?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

According to this, #1, #2, #17 for Scherzer & Turner. Downs was the 44th in MLB when they traded him to us, so I'm guessing he was ranked pretty highly in the Dodgers farm.

Max Scherzer, Trea Turner traded to Dodgers (mlb.com)
Dodgers get: RHP Max Scherzer, SS Trea Turner
Nationals get: C Keibert Ruiz (Dodgers' No. 1 prospect per MLB Pipeline); RHP Josiah Gray (No. 2); RHP Gerardo Carrillo (No. 17); OF Donovan Casey (unranked)

Still #1 farm system this offseason according to Keith Law.
MLB 2022 farm system rankings: Keith Law grades all 30 teams on prospects, with the Dodgers at No. 1 - The Athletic

My point is that the Dodgers manage to replenish their system despite trading away legit talent and never drafting highly. They're a well run organization with deep pockets. That's what we're paying Chaim to do - if we trade top prospects, he should be able to replace them even without top-5 picks. I'm not sure if it's the right move to push in all the chips for Soto, but Chaim should be able to identify replacement talent if we do.

BA had Ruiz at 51 last year, 11 going into this year
Gray at 68 last year, lost prospect status.
Downs at 71 last year, not on the list this year.

So that's like Casas, Walter and Rafaela/Bleis. If the Sox made a trade like that for Turner, Scherzer and Betts, I'd be totally fine with that. They'd also be a top 10 system still.

Instead, people want to trade Mayer (15th), Casas (19th), and even a bunch of or all of Yorke (31st, will be closer to 60-70 in 2023), Bello (40-70 range), Rafaela (40-100) Walter (70-100) Bleis (small chance of top 100) and more for 1 guy.

 

[Ale Xander]

Soto is a generational talent though

Similarity scores through 22

1. Mike Trout (956.3)
2. Frank Robinson (955.8) *
3. Bryce Harper (944.3)
4. Miguel Cabrera (943.8)
5. Mickey Mantle (927.9) *
6. Tony Conigliaro (921.1)
7. Henry Aaron (918.7) *
8. Orlando Cepeda (911.5) *
9. Giancarlo Stanton (909.4)
10. Ken Griffey Jr. (908.6)

A bunch of 1st ballot HOF'ers plus Cepeda (VC HOF), Conigliaro, Harper (probable HOF'er) , Miggy (probable HOF'er) and Stanton (possible HOF'er)

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Players emerge every year from all over the draft. You don't need a Casas every year in the first round, you just need to keep getting quality guys you can develop. And there are clearly other ways to obtain prospects, such as via trade, taking on a bad deal (like JBJ), etc. The Red Sox will have to constantly replenish the farm system regardless of whether or not they make a huge splash with Soto. Trading a few top prospects in 2022 makes the replenishment effort more difficult. But they will need to replenish anyways in the event guys get injured, don't progress how we hope, etc.

I'm not using the rosiest of outcomes like you are suggesting, I'm just stating the fact that they will have plenty of opportunities to replenish the farm.

Right, and when those player emerge, you keep them. You don't trade them.

They have other ways of obtaining talent like Mayer too. Players emerge every year from all over the draft, as you said. So why not trade him too? Why does his draft position matter if players emerge every year from all over the draft? What is the difference?

Mayer was considered a top 20 prospect right out of the draft and Casas wasn't? Why does it matter after Casas has established himself as a prospect on the level of Mayer and is much closer to the big leagues?

Would you have traded Mookie Betts because he was a 5th round pick and players emerge every year from all over the draft? People are seriously undervaluing Triston Casas and how easy it would be to replace him. He's ranked just as high as Marcelo Mayer but he's easy to replace and Marcelo isn't because reasons.