Would A Below .500 Team In 2023 Be Better Than The Best Baseball Teams Of 25 Years Ago?

[Wingack]

Saw this idea kicking around on Twitter the other day. Someone was suggesting that given all the tools that baseball teams have now as far as gaining hitting, pitching and fielding advantages, that even the worst team today would be better than the best teams of 25 years or so ago? I think the A's and Nationals being better than the 97 Yankees or Braves is a bit of a stretch so that is why I am suggesting a team a bit better than that.

It's a good topic for debate I think though and I am curious as to what people would thing. Would baseball teams in the 90's be able to stand a chance against pitching staffs where everyone throws in the high 90s? Could the pitchers of the 90's be able to keep the ball in the ballpark successfully? For the sake of the debate, the baseball teams from the 90's do NOT have access to the same information, strategies, etc. as the teams from today (like the 2023 Twins or Cubs).

I am going to toss up a poll but what does everyone think.

 

[Spelunker]

Every relief pitcher suddenly sitting at 98 and able to dial up to 100 seems pretty insurmountable to me.

It would be closer this year than last, with the rules changes, but still we know from an informational standpoint feels like a massive, massive edge.

 

[Max Power]

Do the 1998 teams still have access to their steroids?

 

[Ale Xander]

I’m definitely taking the ‘98 Yankees over the ‘23 Orioles

 

[luckiestman]

People really really overrate athletic progress.

Yes, the 97 Yankees would fuckstart a 2022 bad team’s head.

 

[jon abbey]

The 2022/2023 Orioles are far from the worst team anymore but there are some really bad ones (OAK, WAS). I think the more interesting comparison is a mediocre team now, the White Sox were 81-81 last year.

 

[Wallball Tingle]

Are we playing by the 2023 rules or the 1998 rules? Does the 1998 team get a chance to at least know about 2023 trends in baseball?

I think the modern strategy of pitching usage (partly in terms of the way the bullpen is stocked, as Spelunker mentioned) might be the difference maker over say 100 games (not sure how many they'd have to play to find out who was better--or if the 1998 team might change tactics after a while). I think it'd be almost an even match-up.

Edited to remove redundant question given OP.

 

[BaseballJones]

The 2004 Red Sox had one guy in the bullpen who could throw 95 mph - Embree - and he could get to 95 *on occasion*. He and Timlin threw like -94.

Every team now has a never ending line of guys who throw 97+. It makes a big difference.

But I do think that lineups were more well rounded back then, a good combination of power and speed and contact that would play very well in todays game.

I don’t think the athletic and technological advancements in baseball are as pronounced as in, say, football. Decades ago the average offensive lineman was like 280 pounds. They’re now well over 300, and they run like linebackers. It’s crazy.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

In a three game series the mediocre current team would win in most simulations.

over 162 games the 1997 team would learn shifting strategy and get accustomed to 98 mph relievers and would beat the mediocre team more often than not

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

The 1998 Yankees might have some trouble with this year's As. Jeter played the most recently, and that was nine years ago. Bernie Williams is 54. David Cone is 60!

(I'll show myself out.)

 

[Wingack]

People really really overrate athletic progress.

Yes, the 97 Yankees would fuckstart a 2022 bad team’s head.

The 2022/2023 Orioles are far from the worst team anymore but there are some really bad ones (OAK, WAS). I think the more interesting comparison is a mediocre team now, the White Sox were 81-81 last year.

Yeah which is why I switched it to a mediocre team rather than the worst team in baseball like what was floating around.

 

[YTF]

The 2004 Red Sox had one guy in the bullpen who could throw 95 mph - Embree - and he could get to 95 *on occasion*. He and Timlin threw like -94.

Every team now has a never ending line of guys who throw 97+. It makes a big difference.

But I do think that lineups were more well rounded back then, a good combination of power and speed and contact that would play very well in todays game.

I don’t think the athletic and technological advancements in baseball are as pronounced as in, say, football. Decades ago the average offensive lineman was like 280 pounds. They’re now well over 300, and they run like linebackers. It’s crazy.

To piggy back on this a bit, roster construction is different as well. I can't pinpoint the exact change in the usage of pitchers (or as Bob Ryan refers to it "The Tony LaRussafication of Baseball"), but even then starters were expected (and more often than not) able to go more deeper into games. The bench makeup of a team might be a little different as the team may not need 13 pitchers. Of course today's roster size has changed so which rules are we using? Yesteryear's team might only require 11 pitchers. Six bench spots would surely be an advantage at times.

 

[wiffleballhero]

In a three game series the mediocre current team would win in most simulations.

over 162 games the 1997 team would learn shifting strategy and get accustomed to 98 mph relievers and would beat the mediocre team more often than not

This seems to me like the correct answer. But I also I think any team before about the 94 strike would lose badly over the 162. And if you jump back another 25 to 1973 it would be more heartbreaking than anything else. They'd get demolished.

 

[Wingack]

This seems to me like the correct answer. But I also I think any team before about the 94 strike would lose badly over the 162. And if you jump back another 25 to 1973 it would be more heartbreaking than anything else. They'd get demolished.

There were talking during the ESPN broadcast of the HOU game about how hard Nolan Ryan would have thrown if he played today. Would have been something to see.

 

[InstaFace]

This seems to me like the correct answer. But I also I think any team before about the 94 strike would lose badly over the 162. And if you jump back another 25 to 1973 it would be more heartbreaking than anything else. They'd get demolished.

At some point pre-expansion, the talent pool in MLB gets more concentrated from fewer teams, and also greater relative popularity of baseball as a sport / larger minors and youth participation, etc.

But they also have to contend with a lack of modern approaches to nutrition, fitness, "not smoking like a chimney", and so on.

 

[nvalvo]

I think as Wingack has redefined the question — i.e. do the 2023 Chicago White Sox (probably a pretty good team) beat the 1998 Yankees in a 7-game series — I think White Sox would be pretty strongly favored.

On the one hand, the 1998 Yankees were incredible; almost certainly the best single team year of their decade (a decade that had a bunch of really notable teams!). On the other hand, I like Eloy Jimenez' or Louis Robert's or Andrew Benintendi's chances of hitting well against Pettitte or Wells or El Duque than I do Tino Martinez' or Darryl Strawberry's chances of hitting Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech.

There was a guy back in the 1990s who sat high 90s (touched 100) on the fastball from the left side while working in a devastating slider around 90 mph, and that guy was Randy Johnson. He won five Cy Young awards. That basically describes the repertoire of another tall lefty, Garrett Crochet, and he's, what? — the fourth best reliever on the White Sox when everybody's healthy?

 

[Wingack]

I think as Wingack has redefined the question — i.e. do the 2023 Chicago White Sox (probably a pretty good team) beat the 1998 Yankees in a 7-game series — I think White Sox would be pretty strongly favored.

On the one hand, the 1998 Yankees were incredible; almost certainly the best single team year of their decade (a decade that had a bunch of really notable teams!). On the other hand, I like Eloy Jimenez' or Louis Robert's or Andrew Benintendi's chances of hitting well against Pettitte or Wells or El Duque than I do Tino Martinez' or Darryl Strawberry's chances of hitting Dylan Cease or Michael Kopech.

There was a guy back in the 1990s who sat high 90s (touched 100) on the fastball from the left side while working in a devastating slider around 90 mph, and that guy was Randy Johnson. He won five Cy Young awards. That basically describes the repertoire of another tall lefty, Garrett Crochet, and he's, what? — the fourth best reliever on the White Sox when everybody's healthy?

The White Sox are a great choice. Solid lineup, some solid starters, a good bullpen (with Hendricks). I think they would mess some of the great 90’s teams up probably.

 

[Mantush]

I simulated 10,000 games between the 22 White Sox and 98 Yankees in OOTP24. I can't upload images so I've just posted the results below in tables. It actually came out closer than I thought it would be. I thought the Yankees would have won more games.

White Sox Stat Yankees 4953-5047 Record 5047-4953 41489 Runs Scored 41884 41884 Runs Allowed 41489 .286 AVG .251 8081 HR 11424 2010 SB 5389 3.98 ERA 3.96 11424 HR Allowed 8081 2.87 BB/9 1.69 9.72 K/9 8.90 3.38 K/BB 5.25 .685 Defensive Efficiency .642 ​

CHICAGO 2022 WHITE SOX BATTING STATS
Name	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
José Abreu 1B	9729	39064	4663	12298	2477	59	692	4947	16969	2539	8842	6	8	0.315	0.367	0.434	0.802
Tim Anderson SS	9333	41136	5306	12826	1664	60	524	3432	16182	1361	8295	1084	465	0.312	0.343	0.393	0.737
Danny Mendick SS	4613	13356	1440	3986	500	104	296	1712	5582	612	3341	2	8	0.298	0.336	0.418	0.753
Luis Robert CF	9486	39374	4888	11658	1783	68	905	3955	16292	1157	9408	715	453	0.296	0.321	0.414	0.735
Seby Zavala C	1298	770	76	225	58	0	9	91	310	53	284	0	2	0.292	0.352	0.403	0.755
Eloy Jimenez LF	9888	39431	5077	11353	1456	49	1649	6054	17854	3038	11062	10	9	0.288	0.344	0.453	0.797
Andrew Vaughn RF	9372	36229	3898	10333	1888	63	930	4211	15137	1580	7913	6	7	0.285	0.327	0.418	0.745
AJ Pollock LF	9364	32824	3677	8993	1716	55	738	3755	13033	1501	7334	89	97	0.274	0.307	0.397	0.704
Reese McGuire C	7882	26837	2593	7349	1402	91	226	2307	9611	950	6796	3	18	0.274	0.308	0.358	0.666
Josh Harrison 2B	9321	35158	3857	9561	1754	148	481	3243	13054	1351	7921	87	112	0.272	0.322	0.371	0.693
Gavin Sheets RF	6800	11348	1238	3061	533	16	362	1616	4712	617	2718	0	1	0.27	0.311	0.415	0.726
Jake Burger 3B	9221	36150	4093	9418	1777	136	1180	4511	15007	1348	12727	4	7	0.261	0.299	0.415	0.714
Yasmani Grandal C	2597	7276	683	1577	173	4	89	533	2025	802	2175	4	2	0.217	0.297	0.278	0.575
NEW YORK 1998 YANKEES BATTING STATS
Name	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Homer Bush 2B	4355	5773	572	1671	199	5	78	464	2114	292	1848	196	137	0.289	0.327	0.366	0.693
Derek Jeter SS	9370	38747	4921	10593	1343	236	937	3898	15219	2435	11385	1183	676	0.273	0.323	0.393	0.716
Bernie Williams CF	9678	37299	4848	9732	1647	186	1326	4800	15729	3771	11684	774	536	0.261	0.328	0.422	0.75
Paul O'Neill RF	9632	34491	3911	8889	1779	52	1097	3842	14063	2978	9751	338	199	0.258	0.318	0.408	0.726
Shane Spencer 1B	9699	38497	5088	9634	1872	66	2242	6508	18364	2427	11296	210	389	0.25	0.296	0.477	0.773
Scott Brosius 3B	9362	33951	3926	8424	1766	52	909	3472	13021	2454	9848	525	483	0.248	0.314	0.384	0.698
Joe Girardi C	7772	24426	2243	5998	942	192	248	2124	8068	918	5870	161	271	0.246	0.28	0.33	0.61
Tino Martinez 1B	9930	37471	4942	9199	1826	33	1994	5542	17073	3618	9357	9	39	0.245	0.319	0.456	0.775
Chuck Knoblauch 2B	9331	37815	5014	9228	1362	126	921	3464	13605	3210	7851	1535	935	0.244	0.325	0.36	0.685
Tim Raines LF	9579	31759	3555	7725	1183	58	464	2928	10416	4345	9117	257	250	0.243	0.34	0.328	0.668
Luis Sojo SS	1845	4274	308	1011	126	21	22	326	1245	70	668	6	15	0.237	0.247	0.291	0.538
Jorge Posada C	4011	8801	1015	2055	419	12	419	1357	3755	798	3292	5	4	0.233	0.295	0.427	0.722
Darryl Strawberry LF	4429	10766	1541	2253	286	27	767	1832	4894	1348	5003	190	145	0.209	0.303	0.455	0.758
CHICAGO 2022 WHITE SOX PITCHING STATS
Name	W	L	SV	ERA	G	GS	IP	HA	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	OAVG	BABIP
Yasmani Grandal C	0	0	0	0	3	0	2.1	0	0	0	0	3	2	1.29	0	0
Reynaldo Lopez CL	376	438	1771	3.25	3975	0	4752	4666	1818	1716	336	1460	4641	1.29	0.254	0.321
Davis Martin RP	372	158	150	3.59	4555	0	6731.2	6443	2833	2687	789	1751	6996	1.22	0.25	0.311
Aaron Bummer RP	275	141	168	3.8	4512	0	4354.2	4352	1987	1837	436	1582	4283	1.36	0.26	0.323
Dylan Cease SP	611	788	6	3.83	2193	2157	11984.1	10846	5384	5100	1400	4286	15031	1.26	0.24	0.324
Vince Velasquez RP	311	294	196	3.92	4429	0	5017	4763	2277	2186	682	1709	6028	1.29	0.248	0.323
Michael Kopech SP	612	763	3	4	2167	2141	11536.1	9521	5403	5127	1706	4806	11705	1.24	0.223	0.264
Liam Hendriks RP	240	253	194	4	4528	0	4520.1	4272	2092	2010	663	1348	5552	1.24	0.246	0.32
Kendall Graveman RP	147	82	126	4	3430	0	4067	4305	1915	1809	419	1387	3806	1.4	0.271	0.329
Lucas Giolito SP	652	610	1	4.12	2000	1985	10347.2	9927	4974	4742	1588	3157	13001	1.26	0.25	0.33
Johnny Cueto SP	499	565	4	4.13	1654	1619	8561.1	9344	4194	3927	904	1815	6772	1.3	0.276	0.32
Joe Kelly RP	171	108	103	4.15	3712	0	3873	3580	1892	1788	355	2059	4601	1.46	0.245	0.33
Lance Lynn SP	600	766	2	4.3	2137	2098	11223	11626	5661	5358	1776	1911	11919	1.21	0.265	0.323
Jimmy Lambert RP	87	81	80	4.39	2069	0	2763	2738	1427	1349	368	1374	2621	1.49	0.256	0.304
Seby Zavala C	0	0	0	18	4	0	5	11	10	10	1	7	6	3.6	0.44	0.556
Gavin Sheets RF	0	0	0	24.16	7	0	6.1	18	17	17	1	9	6	4.26	0.486	0.567
NEW YORK 1998 YANKEES PITCHING STATS
Name	W	L	SV	ERA	G	GS	IP	HA	R	ER	HR	BB	K	WHIP	OAVG	BABIP
Homer Bush 2B	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
Mariano Rivera CL	419	481	1991	3.23	4140	0	4864.1	5654	1833	1746	210	955	3819	1.36	0.291	0.35
David Cone SP	840	716	0	3.34	2170	2160	13936	13989	5442	5172	1131	2071	16008	1.15	0.259	0.346
Orlando Hernandez SP	840	681	1	3.54	2150	2142	13517	13935	5557	5310	1015	2792	15223	1.24	0.264	0.351
Ramiro Mendoza RP	298	311	405	3.66	4564	0	4726.1	5585	2035	1924	310	566	3468	1.3	0.295	0.344
David Wells SP	805	731	1	3.95	2113	2106	12877.1	14982	5918	5648	1573	1223	12517	1.26	0.288	0.352
Hideki Irabu SP	525	562	1	4.04	1616	1613	9023	9402	4249	4048	1096	2109	9252	1.28	0.266	0.33
Darren Holmes RP	255	290	183	4.21	3248	0	3743.1	4923	1857	1750	282	501	2971	1.45	0.318	0.375
Mike Stanton RP	89	74	67	4.31	2765	0	3606	4212	1802	1725	474	785	3515	1.39	0.291	0.352
Graeme Lloyd RP	158	140	92	4.34	3405	0	3887.1	5124	1998	1876	350	470	2749	1.44	0.318	0.363
Jeff Nelson RP	160	89	49	4.39	3399	0	3989.1	5306	2055	1946	123	1017	4126	1.58	0.32	0.415
Ryan Bradley RP	35	25	19	4.54	1307	0	1941.2	2039	1009	979	217	791	2248	1.46	0.268	0.35
Andy Pettitte SP	545	799	2	4.83	1981	1979	10421.2	13102	5864	5595	988	2779	10450	1.52	0.308	0.386
Joe Borowski RP	78	54	45	4.92	2526	0	3267.1	4384	1869	1787	312	849	2469	1.6	0.322	0.372
Luis Sojo SS	0	0	0	27	1	0	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	6	0.5	0.5

 

[SumnerH]

The 2004 Red Sox had one guy in the bullpen who could throw 95 mph - Embree - and he could get to 95 *on occasion*. He and Timlin threw like -94.

Every team now has a never ending line of guys who throw 97+. It makes a big difference.

But that speed difference is in significant part because how we measure pitch speed has changed. PITCHf/x added a couple of mph to a typical fastball compared to earlier radar gun measurements, and TrackMan/Statcast bumped speeds up even more. They've even retroactively made corrections to PITCHf/x pitch records: Aroldis Chapman's 105.1mph fastball is now considered a 105.8mph fastball, because there's enough data overlap between the PITCHf/x and TrackMan systems to calibrate a reasonable adjustment.

Embree was throwing 94mph on a Stalker Pro II radar gun measuring near the midpoint of the pitch; measuring the exact same pitch with TrackMan (which takes the speed very near the release point) might have him around 98–99mph.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/the-measure-of-a-fastball-has-changed-over-the-years/ discusses in more detail:

[A] pitch could be measured at 100 mph (at the pitcher’s hand), 99 mph (at 50 feet from home plate), 94 mph (midway on its journey) or 91 mph (as it crosses home plate)...The first radar guns that began appearing at ballparks in the late 1970s and early 1980s measured pitches much closer to the plate. The Speedgun, developed by Decatur Technologies (a long-time maker of police radar guns) measured closer to the plate than the JUGS gun....Then Stalker came out with its Pro Sports radar gun in the early 1990s. It measured velocity closer to the pitcher’s release point than the JUGS gun...The Pitch/FX system that MLB used in 2010 measured pitches at roughly 50 feet from home plate, which is where the 105.1 mph of Chapman’s fastball was measured. The current MLB Statcast system measures velocity as the pitch leaves the pitcher’s hand.

There were talking during the ESPN broadcast of the HOU game about how hard Nolan Ryan would have thrown if he played today. Would have been something to see.

Yep. The article ends with:

And that makes the 100 mph pitches Nolan Ryan threw in 1974 (as measured by Rockwell laser/radar instruments relatively close to the plate) even more remarkable today.

 

[Max Power]

There was a guy back in the 1990s who sat high 90s (touched 100) on the fastball from the left side while working in a devastating slider around 90 mph, and that guy was Randy Johnson. He won five Cy Young awards. That basically describes the repertoire of another tall lefty, Garrett Crochet, and he's, what? — the fourth best reliever on the White Sox when everybody's healthy?

You know who can't hit today's pitchers? Today's hitters. The league average OPS last year was .706. In 1998 it was .755 and pitchers hit in the NL. Derek Jeter was the best player on the 1998 Yankees and he had a career OPS over .800 against Justin Verlander, who won the Cy Young Award last year. I get that players today have way more access to data and video, but if you gave that to the roid monsters of the late 90s, they'd still be some of the best hitters in the league.

 

[moondog80]

Every relief pitcher suddenly sitting at 98 and able to dial up to 100 seems pretty insurmountable to me.

It would be closer this year than last, with the rules changes, but still we know from an informational standpoint feels like a massive, massive edge.

The graphic yesterday that Bautista (the O's closer) had 200+ pitches last year of 100 MPH, and this was good for only 7th in MLB, was mind blowing.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

No one should be talking about pitch velocity without reading the link Sumner posted. The pitches aren't being measured the same way as they were 25 years ago. The pitches back then would be measured as much faster if the current technology was used.

 

[Ale Xander]

Ryan would have 400 k a year, Roger 350
Both would have games where they struck out 23
In 8 innings

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

The one thing I'm certain of is that a lineup with Kenny Lofton, Carlos Baerga, Albert Belle, Eddie Murray, Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez would still beat the ever-living shit out of Garrett Crochet.

 

[Pitt the Elder]

It's interesting to look at individual sports where success is objective and quantifiable and see how much better athletes are in 2023 than they were in 1998. In swimming, the 100 fr world record was 48.21 and now it's 46.86, which is probably equivalent to winning by 1.5 body lengths. In other words, absolutely a curb stomping. More starkly, 21 swimmers in total went faster than that swim in 2022 and 26 in 2021 during an Olympic year. In other words, the world record holder in 1998 would barely be relevant at the international level 25 years later.

Trying to apply this to baseball is much harder, since athletes are competing against each other rather than a clock, but I think a logical premise is that the median MLB player in 2023 would be as good or better than a very good to great player in 1998, with the all-time greats being the only players who would be meaningfully better. The average fastball speed is a really good indicator of this but you have to imagine there have been similar aggregate gains across the broader skill sets of the league over the last 25 years. Given the intense upward pressure on the talent pool (MILB, international, etc) skill inflation is likely very real.

 

[snowmanny]

Do the changing demographics of baseball have an impact on the answer? In the 1990's up to 18% of MLB players were Black (and over 40% of outfielders). Last year Black players composed around 7% of all MLB players, and as of less than ten years ago the % of outfielders who were Black had dropped to about 20%. .

If elite athletes are choosing to play other sports then maybe the difference in eras is less than we'd expect.


https://sabr.org/bioproj/topic/baseball-demographics-1947-2016/


https://www.newsweek.com/mlb-has-lowest-percentage-black-baseball-players-3-decades-report-1708382

 

[Marciano490]

How are so many guys throwing so much harder? Is it just more guys strength training for longer?

 

[Max Power]

Do the changing demographics of baseball have an impact on the answer? In the 1990's up to 18% of MLB players were Black (and over 40% of outfielders). Last year Black players composed around 7% of all MLB players, and as of less than ten years ago the % of outfielders who were Black had dropped to about 20%. .

If elite athletes are choosing to play other sports then maybe the difference in eras is less than we'd expect.


https://sabr.org/bioproj/topic/baseball-demographics-1947-2016/


https://www.newsweek.com/mlb-has-lowest-percentage-black-baseball-players-3-decades-report-1708382

I was thinking something similar. The pipeline of players from Japan and Latin America has picked up the slack some, but the best American athletes today are mostly playing football and basketball. There's an argument to be made that talent in MLB was at its peak in the 1960s. There were only 20 teams, so talent wasn't as diluted, and most of the best American athletes were playing baseball.

 

[SumnerH]

How are so many guys throwing so much harder? Is it just more guys strength training for longer?

See my post #19 above. Some guys are throwing harder for sure, but the current means of measurement says everything is about 4–5mph faster than the exact same pitch would've been measured in 2005 because they measure closer to the release point nowadays. Most of that jump came with the switch to PITCHf/x, and then another chunk came when they went from that to TrackMan.

The older readings were patchwork (different guns measured things differently) so there's no precise correction that can be made to those. But with the PITCHf/x to TrackMan switch both systems were uniform enough and there's enough overlapping data that they actually retroactively applied a correction factor: per that article, they bumped up the speed of e.g. Aroldis Chapman's pitches.

 

[j44thor]

I think the elephant in the room in this discussion, as others have mentioned, is if the pharmacological advantages of players in the 90s continue to exist. Do we still have roided up Bonds/Sosa/MacGuire types or do we level the playing field? I assume if we are giving the current day athletes all the technological advantages then we have to give the 90s players their advantages. It would be a good debate to determine if players today with their improved training but much less access to PEDs would be at an advantage or disadvantage vs. the PED generation of players.