Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

[charlieoscar]

Are the Sox hurting for RH relievers? Kimbrel, Smith, Kelly, Barnes, Thornburg, Hembree, Workman, Maddox...that's a long and solid list.

Solid?
Carson Smith has been with the Red Sox for two seasons and has pitched a total of 9.1 innings.
Tyler Thornburg has yet to pitch for the club.
Brandon Workman missed the entire 2015 season and spent the 2016 season rehabbing in the Rookie League/A-/AA.
Joe Kelly missed about a month near the beginning of the 2016 season and nearly two months in the middle of that season.
Craig Kimbrel missed almost a moth in 2016.
Austin Maddox has all of 17.1 innings of MLB experience.

Maybe everything will come up roses....

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wouldn't SD just move Myers to LF?

Most likely. Myers is signed through 2022 (option for 2023). The Padres aren't pursuing Hosmer because they want to replace Myers, they're looking to add Hosmer to Myers in the middle of their lineup.

 

[wnyghost]

Myers has some power and that should increase away from SD.

Recent ESPN article...

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21568989/ten-players-traded-offseason-their-own-good

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Wouldn't SD just move Myers to LF?

Probably. But let's run with the fantasy a bit...

Playing in San Diego is obviously suppressing his production at the plate, and it looks like he'd take advantage of the monster if he was acquired. Lots of balls that were outs that would either be singles, doubles or home runs.

If this was done in addition to grabbing another bat (like JD Martinez with a trade of JBJ for pitching or something else) it would be an interesting way to add power while plugging the 1B hole.

 

[billy ashley]

Wouldn't SD just move Myers to LF?

That's a good point. Though wasn't part of the reason they moved him to 1B to help ensure that he could stay on the field?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Solid?
Carson Smith has been with the Red Sox for two seasons and has pitched a total of 9.1 innings.
Tyler Thornburg has yet to pitch for the club.
Brandon Workman missed the entire 2015 season and spent the 2016 season rehabbing in the Rookie League/A-/AA.
Joe Kelly missed about a month near the beginning of the 2016 season and nearly two months in the middle of that season.
Craig Kimbrel missed almost a moth in 2016.
Austin Maddox has all of 17.1 innings of MLB experience.

Maybe everything will come up roses....

Since when does "solid" mean that guys never get hurt? They're solid in that they can all perform acceptably when called upon.

My point being that given the depth they have, right handed relief is not a priority this off-season. So the run of RH relievers getting signed this week isn't really a bad sign for the Red Sox.

 

[BuellMiller]

How are we getting Owens back from the dbacks though?

Obviously, he's coming back along with Greinke and Goldschmidt.

 

[chawson]

Probably. But let's run with the fantasy a bit...

Playing in San Diego is obviously suppressing his production at the plate, and it looks like he'd take advantage of the monster if he was acquired. Lots of balls that were outs that would either be singles, doubles or home runs.

If this was done in addition to grabbing another bat (like JD Martinez with a trade of JBJ for pitching or something else) it would be an interesting way to add power while plugging the 1B hole.

Looks good, but I don’t think that’s Myers’ 2017 spray chart. It seems to be his 2016-17 spray chart.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Looks good, but I don’t think that’s Myers’ 2017 spray chart. It seems to be his 2016-17 spray chart.

The home run total seems to match his 2017. What makes you say it has 2016 mixed in?

 

[sean1562]

It doesn’t really make sense for the padres to go all in on hosmer and immediately trade Myers. He is going to lf.

I am wary about the Padres locking up hosmer so early. If he gets a huge deal JD will not sign for anything lower. Would rather cross my fingers and hope for team improvement, then throw all the money at Harper next offseason

 

[chawson]

The home run total seems to match his 2017. What makes you say it has 2016 mixed in?

My bad. The default Statcast spray charts had been merging years earlier/elsewhere but this looks to be correct.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Wouldn't SD just move Myers to LF?

I'd assume that is the plan, though he was moved to 1st because he's not a good fielder at all

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Pretty sure he was moved to 1B because they had both Uptons and Kemp when they acquired him.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Pretty sure he was moved to 1B because they had both Uptons and Kemp when they acquired him.

He played almost twice as many games in the OF as 1B his first year in SD. Last 2 he's barely played there.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If they are signing Hosmer, they mean to contend sooner rather than later. Swapping Hosmer for Myers doesn't move the needle unless Myers brings back major league talent that they need. They have developed a nice farm system since the last attempt at competing that went sideways. Hopefully (for their sake) Preller isn't planning on blowing out the farm for major league vets again, as I don't think they are going to be able to make a few signings and get into that wild card race next year.

But if Myers is on the block, it would probably require something like EdRo to get him. I'm guessing it's a lot more likely that they're going to do what most in this thread are assuming, and move him back to left.

 

[grimshaw]

But if Myers is on the block, it would probably require something like EdRo to get him. I'm guessing it's a lot more likely that they're going to do what most in this thread are assuming, and move him back to left.

I don't think his contract is worth much of anything by trade. He's a 2 win 1b making an AAV of 13.
The market is flooded with those guys right now.

Once he starts making 20 a year in 2020 they'll be begging teams to take him away.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't think his contract is worth much of anything by trade. He's a 2 win 1b making an AAV of 13.
The market is flooded with those guys right now.

Once he starts making 20 a year in 2020 they'll be begging teams to take him away.

The AAV doesn't change just because the yearly salary does. They can afford to pay him the actual money, so I don't see that as any kind of incentive. This isn't the Marlins or the A's. They are willing to spend when they see a window of contention in front of them.

As for his value, get him out of SD and I bet you start seeing that wRC+ jump up a bit. He's a consistent 30 home run hitter in a cavernous ballpark.

 

[grimshaw]

The AAV doesn't change just because the yearly salary does. They can afford to pay him the actual money, so I don't see that as any kind of incentive. This isn't the Marlins or the A's. They are willing to spend when they see a window of contention in front of them.

As for his value, get him out of SD and I bet you start seeing that wRC+ jump up a bit. He's a consistent 30 home run hitter in a cavernous ballpark.

Of course they can afford him, but he just isn't very good and isn't worth much in a trade is all.

 

[RedOctober3829]

ORLANDO — A source at the winter meetings said that the Red Sox are engaged in talks with not only free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez but also free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The intent is not to try to ensure signing one of the two elite hitters, said the source.



The goal is to try to sign both of them.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski neither confirmed nor denied the report.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/12/source_red_sox_talks_signal_interest_in_signing_both_jd

 

[chawson]

The AAV doesn't change just because the yearly salary does. They can afford to pay him the actual money, so I don't see that as any kind of incentive. This isn't the Marlins or the A's. They are willing to spend when they see a window of contention in front of them.

As for his value, get him out of SD and I bet you start seeing that wRC+ jump up a bit. He's a consistent 30 home run hitter in a cavernous ballpark.

This is arguably true. Myers hit 28 and 30 in the last two years (in 650-675 PAs apiece). Seen another way, that's been roughly as productive with the bat as Hanley over that time. His .321 xwOBA — which is a park- and defense-independent look at his batted ball and plate discipline — is pretty meh. For reference, that's as good as Chase Headley's bat was in 2017. Seems he could be passable in LF, but his first base defense is grim.

PETCO doesn't suppress offense as much as it once had. Last year, RHH hit home runs at -6 percent of MLB levels. By comparison, RHH at Fenway hit home runs at -12 percent MLB levels, though with a 19 percent jump in doubles.

Strange player. Tempting in a way, but a tough one to hitch this team's wagon to. He's 27 and a former top prospect and could still improve in a post-post-post-hype way. But he also may just be what he is — a decent to good, 1.5 to 2-win player who gets real expensive in 2020.

 

[MikeM]

Sounds like DD is waking up.

Please no Hosmer though. JD Kong plus really any of the LHH 1B free agent bats falling between Hosmer and Mitch Moreland is enough. Then shop Bradley for the best prospect package you can find (pitching, a potential SS of the future, ect).

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

ORLANDO — A source at the winter meetings said that the Red Sox are engaged in talks with not only free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez but also free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The intent is not to try to ensure signing one of the two elite hitters, said the source.



The goal is to try to sign both of them.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski neither confirmed nor denied the report.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/12/source_red_sox_talks_signal_interest_in_signing_both_jd

The corollary , of course is that they will seek to dump Hanley's contract - good luck with that.

The devil will be in the details of course - at Boras' floated demands it would be insane. But J.D.M at 6/150 and Hosmer at 5/100 or thereabouts would be palatable. Still prefer Santana to Hosmer.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

If it was JDM and Santana, I'd be all on board. Hosmer makes me antsy.

 

[Manramsclan]

I don't understand the blanket anti-Hosmer sentiment. He doesn't address the main concern of the offense, but if he is acquired at a reasonable cost and is in addition to JD Martinez then why wouldn't the Red Sox want him. He's an upgrade at 1B. It's all about the contract terms.

 

[Manramsclan]

The corollary , of course is that they will seek to dump Hanley's contract - good luck with that.

The devil will be in the details of course - at Boras' floated demands it would be insane. But J.D.M at 6/150 and Hosmer at 5/100 or thereabouts would be palatable. Still prefer Santana to Hosmer.

Don't they essentially mitigate the Hanley mess by replacing him at !B/DH though? His $20 M this year is already a sunk cost. Eat $$$ and trade him and it's a win-win.

 

[chawson]

ORLANDO — A source at the winter meetings said that the Red Sox are engaged in talks with not only free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez but also free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The intent is not to try to ensure signing one of the two elite hitters, said the source.



The goal is to try to sign both of them.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski neither confirmed nor denied the report.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/12/source_red_sox_talks_signal_interest_in_signing_both_jd

This is exactly how a 12-year-old plays MLB The Show. In other words, consistent with every other move DD's made in Boston.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I don't understand the blanket anti-Hosmer sentiment. He doesn't address the main concern of the offense, but if he is acquired at a reasonable cost and is in addition to JD Martinez then why wouldn't the Red Sox want him. He's an upgrade at 1B. It's all about the contract terms.

because the cost is not expected to be reasonable? And Santana is the more consistent and likely better player available for less years?

Hosmer and Hanley could easily be a wash in 2018(-19), that's how inconsistent Hosmer can be.

 

[AimingForYoko]

ORLANDO — A source at the winter meetings said that the Red Sox are engaged in talks with not only free agent outfielder J.D. Martinez but also free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The intent is not to try to ensure signing one of the two elite hitters, said the source.



The goal is to try to sign both of them.

Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski neither confirmed nor denied the report.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/12/source_red_sox_talks_signal_interest_in_signing_both_jd

Please...no. Hosmer I can take (though his contract scares me) but I have a sinking feeling that they'll give JD some extremely stupid contract and it will blow up in our faces.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Please...no. Hosmer I can take (though his contract scares me) but I have a sinking feeling that they'll give JD some extremely stupid contract and it will blow up in our faces.

Agreed.

I'm curious why the Sox haven't called about Donaldson. Move Devers to 1st and your issue is solved. Unless the Jays are delusional and believe that they can make the playoffs. I think JD will be a massive bust here. That home run power isn't going to translate to Fenway like everyone thinks it will.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Hosmer (and to a lesser extent Santana) is a bad idea not only because the asking price is not in line with his actual value (especially in a saturated 1B market), but because he has a QO stapled to him. Signing him will cost the team draft picks they really can't afford to be losing.

Dombrowski blowing through the luxury tax threshold to spend big on Martinez is one thing since that just costs the team money. Spending big on a guy who's going to cost draft picks as well, especially when there are affordable alternatives, is just lunacy.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Please no Hosmer though. JD Kong plus really any of the LHH 1B free agent bats falling between Hosmer and Mitch Moreland is enough.

Please...no. Hosmer I can take (though his contract scares me) but I have a sinking feeling that they'll give JD some extremely stupid contract and it will blow up in our faces.

We appear to have a failure of consensus.

 

[E5 Yaz]

We appear to have a failure of consensus.

Nah, there's consensus that they'll make the wrong move

 

[joe dokes]

We appear to have a failure of consensus.

Seems more like a consensus of failure, but I don't pay too much attention until the games start.

 

[Van Everyman]

We appear to have a failure of consensus.

I think that's part of the problem -- there doesn't appear to be a "gotta have" bat on the market this year. Martinez is obviously good, but his Fenway numbers aren't great and his contract will be enormous. Hosmer is a solid player but seems more complementary than central.

Who can they pry loose? It sucks that the Dbacks got goodish again because Goldschmidt seems like exactly the kind of bat this team would love.

 

[AimingForYoko]

Hosmer (and to a lesser extent Santana) is a bad idea not only because the asking price is not in line with his actual value (especially in a saturated 1B market), but because he has a QO stapled to him. Signing him will cost the team draft picks they really can't afford to be losing.

You've convinced me. I don't want either.

 

[chawson]

Man, I really don't understand that Kinsler trade. The Angels got him for the equivalent of a Sox package of Chad de la Guerra and Williams Jerez, two prospects of ours I'm sure we'll never see.

If Pedroia came back strong and our DH/1B situation was locked and productive, we could trade him in the summer to an NL contender for even more than that, because his $6M AAV would open his market considerably. Basically a $3-4M insurance against a Pedey (or Hanley) collapse, and possible investment for deadline deal.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Hosmer (and to a lesser extent Santana) is a bad idea not only because the asking price is not in line with his actual value (especially in a saturated 1B market), but because he has a QO stapled to him. Signing him will cost the team draft picks they really can't afford to be losing.

Dombrowski blowing through the luxury tax threshold to spend big on Martinez is one thing since that just costs the team money. Spending big on a guy who's going to cost draft picks as well, especially when there are affordable alternatives, is just lunacy.

Pushing Hosmer aside for a moment I don't like the thought of its only going to cost money when looking at bringing a player in. Money aside the fit is not good. His swing will be restricted by the wall and then we're looking at paying close to 30 million a year for a 30 homer player. Hosmer has a QO but you could make the argument he's a better fit for this team just based on his spray chart and the fact he actually plays a position of need. Ideally, I'd like Donaldson or someone who has 1 year on their contract or a young player who can grow with the core like Schwarber. Its really time to stop throwing money at our issues.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Man, I really don't understand that Kinsler trade. The Angels got him for the equivalent of a Sox package of Chad de la Guerra and Williams Jerez, two prospects of ours I'm sure we'll never see.

If Pedroia came back strong and our DH/1B situation was locked and productive, we could trade him in the summer to an NL contender for even more than that, because his $6M AAV would open his market considerably. Basically a $3-4M insurance against a Pedey (or Hanley) collapse, and possible investment for deadline deal.

I do. Kinsler isn't a big fish. Dave is only interested in big game hunting and that is killing the Sox right now. Small moves that would serve this team on the cheap like Kinsler isn't sexy enough to interest DD. I'm really beginning to think this guy is severely overrated. At least Ben was somewhat innovative. Although he made dumb signings as well and probably wouldn't have moved Moncada for Sale. So theres plusses and minuses with both, I guess.

 

[moondog80]

I do. Kinsler isn't a big fish. Dave is only interested in big game hunting and that is killing the Sox right now. Small moves that would serve this team on the cheap like Kinsler isn't sexy enough to interest DD. I'm really beginning to think this guy is severely overrated. At least Ben was somewhat innovative. Although he made dumb signings as well and probably wouldn't have moved Moncada for Sale. So theres plusses and minuses with both, I guess.

This is silly. DD has executed many smaller in his time here -- Brad Zeigler, Eduardo Nunez, Doug Fister, Addison Reed, Mitch Moreland, etc. I'm sure he's capable of thinking of more than one thing at a time. 28 other teams didn't make the Kinsler deal too.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I do. Kinsler isn't a big fish. Dave is only interested in big game hunting and that is killing the Sox right now. Small moves that would serve this team on the cheap like Kinsler isn't sexy enough to interest DD. I'm really beginning to think this guy is severely overrated. At least Ben was somewhat innovative. Although he made dumb signings as well and probably wouldn't have moved Moncada for Sale. So theres plusses and minuses with both, I guess.

Wouldn't Stanton have qualified as the biggest Marlin and therefore the biggest fish on the market?

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

This is silly. DD has executed many smaller in his time here -- Brad Zeigler, Eduardo Nunez, Doug Fister, Addison Reed, Mitch Moreland, etc. I'm sure he's capable of thinking of more than one thing at a time. 28 other teams didn't make the Kinsler deal too.

All good in season moves other than Moreland. He's been a big game hunter since his days in Detroit. Its not real silly at all to criticize him for perhaps overlooking smaller moves in the offseason because he's focused on getting his guy. At times its fairly obvious he suffers from tunnel vision. Its also been obvious his only target from the get go has been JD. Which is stupid.

Kinsler could have been had for nothing. Also fills a need since Pedey is out till midseason. After that move Kinsler to 1st/DH for the rest of the season and one issue is solved.

 

[MikeM]

I do. Kinsler isn't a big fish. Dave is only interested in big game hunting and that is killing the Sox right now. Small moves that would serve this team on the cheap like Kinsler isn't sexy enough to interest DD. I'm really beginning to think this guy is severely overrated. At least Ben was somewhat innovative. Although he made dumb signings as well and probably wouldn't have moved Moncada for Sale. So theres plusses and minuses with both, I guess.

I'm personally guessing it had a lot more to do with his advanced age, the actual price tag with a LT figure tacked on, and a projected need that only spanned a half season.

 

[judyb]

He's also the guy who picked up JD Martinez for nothing and got Scherzer when he had a vet to trade long before they became big game.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I wanted Kinsler because he's always hit the Sox well and because I have nostalgia for the small moves that gave us the '13 WS. But we had David then. Everything seems so different without him.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't understand the blanket anti-Hosmer sentiment. He doesn't address the main concern of the offense, but if he is acquired at a reasonable cost and is in addition to JD Martinez then why wouldn't the Red Sox want him. He's an upgrade at 1B. It's all about the contract terms.

I don't think anyone would mind if he was signed along side Martinez, but I just don't see how they can afford to do both. If he's the big move, this offseason will be a failure.

Hosmer (and to a lesser extent Santana) is a bad idea not only because the asking price is not in line with his actual value (especially in a saturated 1B market), but because he has a QO stapled to him. Signing him will cost the team draft picks they really can't afford to be losing.

Dombrowski blowing through the luxury tax threshold to spend big on Martinez is one thing since that just costs the team money. Spending big on a guy who's going to cost draft picks as well, especially when there are affordable alternatives, is just lunacy.

It's just one pick unless the USA Today piece that says the Sox were over the CBT threshold in 2017 is accurate. But everything else I can find says they were under, so I'm going with that. It's a 2nd and 500K in IFA cap money in that case.

Still wouldn't be thrilled about it, but in the interest of maximizing the 2 year window, I'd be okay with it. But see above... if it's the ONLY move, I'm gonna be pissed.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I wanted Kinsler because he's always hit the Sox well and because I have nostalgia for the small moves that gave us the '13 WS. But we had David then. Everything seems so different without him.

For all the people upset that the Sox didn't trade for Kinsler, I know the price was nothing, but it was nothing for a reason. He had a 91 wRC+ last year. He's 35, so that low babip might just be that he can't hit the ball hard anymore.

His hardest hit ball ranks 420th among major leaguers on a list of players by their highest exit velocity.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

That's not the 420th hardest hit ball. That's 420th on a list of each player's hardest hit ball. 420 players had one with a higher exit velocity last year. I wouldn't bet on his bat coming back.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I'm personally guessing it had a lot more to do with his advanced age, the actual price tag with a LT figure tacked on, and a projected need that only spanned a half season.

Kinsler is a free agent after next year. JD Martinez is going to get 200+ Million plus from DD. Because he's pretty much been blatant on JD being the only option for the Red Sox. Its all dependent on what you think he's going to do playing 81 games in Fenway. I personally think its going to suppress his power numbers to a degree. I would rather take a chance on someone like Schwarber, trade for Donaldson, or target a guy like Adams who can be a year stop gap. Then go into FA again. Adams splits are brutal. However, I'd rather deal with that all season than having another good player on an albatross contract. I mean it is what it is. I've made peace with the fact JD Martinez is going to be the opening day DH for the Boston Red Sox. Can't wait to see the threads on him in June.

 

[chawson]

He's also the guy who picked up JD Martinez for nothing and got Scherzer when he had a vet to trade long before they became big game.

He's also the guy who traded Eugenio Suarez for one year of trashfire pitcher Alfredo Simon.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

JD Martinez is going to get 200+ Million plus from DD. Because he's pretty much been blatant on JD being the only option for the Red Sox.

If JD Martinez were going to get 200M+ from DD, it would have happened already, because nobody else is going to give him that.

DD may not be Theo, but he's not an utter idiot, either.

 

[chawson]

For all the people upset that the Sox didn't trade for Kinsler, I know the price was nothing, but it was nothing for a reason. He had a 91 wRC+ last year. He's 35, so that low babip might just be that he can't hit the ball hard anymore.

His hardest hit ball ranks 420th among major leaguers on a list of players by their highest exit velocity.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

That's not the 420th hardest hit ball. That's 420th on a list of each player's hardest hit ball. 420 players had one with a higher exit velocity last year. I wouldn't bet on his bat coming back.

He had a .244 BABIP last year. His defense was still elite and he hit the ball harder (37% of contact > 95mph) than he did any other year in his career, without any change in his K%.