Will the real Red Sox please stand up? I repeat, will the real Red Sox please stand up?

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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You've done this multiple times now, claiming that because a coach did something and the decision didn't work that the decision was clearly wrong, which is simply ridiculous. There's almost never a way to know if the decision was right or wrong because there are too many factors.
You are essentially arguing that we should never judge a manager's moves because there are too many factors at play and we don't know all of them. Respectfully, that's ridiculous.

Part of the judgement is what goes into the decision, and part of it is what comes out of it. It's more than fair to judge a move if it doesn't work. This is a results-based business. Was it a mistake for Dave Roberts to pull Rich Hill in Game 4 in 2018? You bet your ass it was, because it didn't work. I'll go further: it was a mistake by Grady Little to leave Pedro in the game in Game 5 against OAK in 2003 even though they won the game.

It's never unfair to at least partially judge a move by its results.

game 6 of the WS: Snell was dominating into the 6th, TB was winning 1-0. This time the 18th batter singled and Cash had already seen this film so he pulled him. Anderson blew it but Cash made the right decision in pulling Snell, just the wrong choice of relievers (Anderson was burnt by being overused in the playoffs).
The difference was that Cash pulled him after only the second hit, and at 73 pitches, after utterly dominating. It's one thing to pull him like they did in the first game after giving up 4 straight baserunners, but after one hit in the 6th? That was a massive overreaction on Cash' part.

This year Snell has perhaps the biggest Home/away pitching splits I've ever seen. Something odd is going on with him.
 

scottyno

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You are essentially arguing that we should never judge a manager's moves because there are too many factors at play and we don't know all of them. Respectfully, that's ridiculous.

Part of the judgement is what goes into the decision, and part of it is what comes out of it. It's more than fair to judge a move if it doesn't work. This is a results-based business. Was it a mistake for Dave Roberts to pull Rich Hill in Game 4 in 2018? You bet your ass it was, because it didn't work. I'll go further: it was a mistake by Grady Little to leave Pedro in the game in Game 5 against OAK in 2003 even though they won the game.



The difference was that Cash pulled him after only the second hit, and at 73 pitches, after utterly dominating. It's one thing to pull him like they did in the first game after giving up 4 straight baserunners, but after one hit in the 6th? That was a massive overreaction on Cash' part.

This year Snell has perhaps the biggest Home/away pitching splits I've ever seen. Something odd is going on with him.
No, I'm arguing that you should judge them based on the logic behind them, not by whether a single move happened to work out. Btw, if he'd pulled him after 1 batter in the first game then he wouldn't have give up 4 straight baserunners. The funny thing is, if he hadn't pulled Snell and he gave up 4 straight baserunners in game 6 we'd be having the exact same argument except you'd be screaming about how stupid Cash was to leave him in when the exact same thing had just happened in game 2.

Also, you're right about something though, we probably shouldn't judge managers moves as much as we do because they have both 10x the information and access to 10x the baseball knowledge that we do, when they make a move there's probably a pretty good reason for it. If there isn't, and they're just going based on a hunch or doing something different from what got them the success they had all year is when you should be worried
 

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To look at it in a much simpler way, suppose I tell you the Red Sox are going to score 20 runs tonight and I'll bet $1000 on it, you tell me that's ridiculous, and then they happen to score 20. Did you make the wrong decision by making the bet? Of course not, you were going to win it 99.9% of the time and it happened to not work out. By your logic you blew it, you made a horrible decision and you deserve the blame.
You definitely should have made this bet.
 

scottyno

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You've done this multiple times now, claiming that because a coach did something and the decision didn't work that the decision was clearly wrong, which is simply ridiculous. There's almost never a way to know if the decision was right or wrong because there are too many factors. If you put in your best reliever in a key spot and he throws a bad pitch and it turns into a home run why is that on the manager and not the pitcher? Or on the hitter because guys throw bad pitches every inning and they usually aren't hit out? What if Cash had brought a position player in to pitch and the guy got out of it, did he make the right decision or just get incredibly lucky? You have no idea what would have happened if he left Snell in, but it's pretty likely it would have had a worse expected outcome than going to the bullpen based on the numbers.

To look at it in a much simpler way, suppose I tell you the Red Sox are going to score 20 runs tonight and I'll bet $1000 on it, you tell me that's ridiculous, and then they happen to score 20. Did you make the wrong decision by making the bet? Of course not, you were going to win it 99.9% of the time and it happened to not work out. By your logic you blew it, you made a horrible decision and you deserve the blame.
I was wrong, betting the Sox wouldn't score 20 would have been a terrible call. Maybe tomorrow we can bet on if the Sox score 15.
 

Rovin Romine

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You've done this multiple times now, claiming that because a coach did something and the decision didn't work that the decision was clearly wrong, which is simply ridiculous. There's almost never a way to know if the decision was right or wrong because there are too many factors. If you put in your best reliever in a key spot and he throws a bad pitch and it turns into a home run why is that on the manager and not the pitcher? Or on the hitter because guys throw bad pitches every inning and they usually aren't hit out? What if Cash had brought a position player in to pitch and the guy got out of it, did he make the right decision or just get incredibly lucky? You have no idea what would have happened if he left Snell in, but it's pretty likely it would have had a worse expected outcome than going to the bullpen based on the numbers.

To look at it in a much simpler way, suppose I tell you the Red Sox are going to score 20 runs tonight and I'll bet $1000 on it, you tell me that's ridiculous, and then they happen to score 20. Did you make the wrong decision by making the bet? Of course not, you were going to win it 99.9% of the time and it happened to not work out. By your logic you blew it, you made a horrible decision and you deserve the blame.
I'm not sure I've ever seen an argument so clearly hoist upon its own rhetorical petard. And its own example.

(FWIW, I disagree with the extent of your point. Some decisions are knowable as a bad one or a good one at the time, and in retrospect.)
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Eovaldi's start last night was the first in 17 games where the starter threw a pitch in the 7th inning. That's an unprecedented bad run of starting pitching. No wonder the bullpen is shot.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Eovaldi's start last night was the first in 17 games where the starter threw a pitch in the 7th inning. That's an unprecedented bad run of starting pitching. No wonder the bullpen is shot.
Not saying you're wrong about Sox pitching, it has been bad, but I wonder where other teams stand in that same category? The trend for years now has been shorter and shorter outings from starters. The average IP per start in MLB this season is barely over five innings (5.1). Ten years ago, that figure was 6.0. Fifty years ago, it was 6.6.

Obviously, this year all teams are trying to protect pitchers a bit after the COVID shortened season last year, and that probably plays into the low numbers, but in 2019, IP/start was 5.2 so it's not that dramatic a difference. Pitching into the seventh isn't the benchmark it used to be.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Eovaldi's start last night was the first in 17 games where the starter threw a pitch in the 7th inning. That's an unprecedented bad run of starting pitching. No wonder the bullpen is shot.
Agreed that the bullpen is shot, but how much of it is due to bad pitching versus Cora's quick hook and the organization's don't let the starters go three times through the order philosophy?
 
Last run through the rotation (including a Richards start!) the Sox rotation has put up the following numbers against a pair of very good hitting teams:

  • 5.1 IP per start
  • .852 WHIP (17 H, 6 BB
  • 31:6 K:BB
  • 7 ER (2.33 ERA)
Also I think it's worth keeping in mind that our pitching staff has faced very stiff opposition since the end of May. In that stretch the Red Sox have faced:

  • Top 3 offense in league 28 times
  • Bottom 3 offense in league 7 times
  • Top half of non-Redsox offense 39 times
  • Bottom half 24 times (of which 13 were against NYY)
When you're playing more than half of your games against top 3 offenses it's going to put a strain on your pitching staff.

The remainder of the season the Sox face:

  • Top 3 offense 8 times
  • Bottom 3 offense 14 times
  • Top half offense 14 times
  • Bottom half offense 32 times
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Not saying you're wrong about Sox pitching, it has been bad, but I wonder where other teams stand in that same category? The trend for years now has been shorter and shorter outings from starters. The average IP per start in MLB this season is barely over five innings (5.1). Ten years ago, that figure was 6.0. Fifty years ago, it was 6.6.

Obviously, this year all teams are trying to protect pitchers a bit after the COVID shortened season last year, and that probably plays into the low numbers, but in 2019, IP/start was 5.2 so it's not that dramatic a difference. Pitching into the seventh isn't the benchmark it used to be.
Seems to me there's a baseball inefficiency there that could possibly be exploited.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I was wrong, betting the Sox wouldn't score 20 would have been a terrible call. Maybe tomorrow we can bet on if the Sox score 15.
No, make the bet on whether they will win the next 4 Word Series or not, just in case you're on a hot streak.
 

grimshaw

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Not saying you're wrong about Sox pitching, it has been bad, but I wonder where other teams stand in that same category? The trend for years now has been shorter and shorter outings from starters. The average IP per start in MLB this season is barely over five innings (5.1). Ten years ago, that figure was 6.0. Fifty years ago, it was 6.6.

Obviously, this year all teams are trying to protect pitchers a bit after the COVID shortened season last year, and that probably plays into the low numbers, but in 2019, IP/start was 5.2 so it's not that dramatic a difference. Pitching into the seventh isn't the benchmark it used to be.
Exactly.
FWIW here is the percentage of quality starts by the league since 2010. Innings pitched don't really capture the decline of starting pitchers.

2010 - 53%
2011 - 53%
2012 - 51%
2013 - 53%
2014 - 54%
2015 - 50%
2016 - 47%
2017 - 44%
2018 - 41%
2019 - 37%
2020 - 29%
2021 - 34%

Total quality starts were around 2500-2600 for the first 5 seasons of the 2010's. They are on pace to drop to the 1700's this season.

The Sox this season are at 25% (same as the Rays who often do it by design) and were 15% last season. Of course the Rays would love to have Glasnow as the Sox miss Sale.
 

DC23

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Please remove Cordero from every lineup moving FW. Seriously, I’ve never seen the Sox give a dude a longer rope- with zero juice. Next is Marwin G. Gross!
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The Rays use of openers skews this, but the Sox % is only better than the Twins and Orioles. Somewhat surprising given that the Sox have benefited from relatively good health among their opening day rotation. Also seems like the Sox have a fair # of mediocre starts (like 4-5 innings, 3-4 runs) which aren’t quality but also doesn’t bury the team in a huge hole.

That being said, the rotation has clearly been the weak link on this team although the innings provided the rotation aren’t terribly unique among contenders.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Rays use of openers skews this, but the Sox % is only better than the Twins and Orioles. Somewhat surprising given that the Sox have benefited from relatively good health among their opening day rotation. Also seems like the Sox have a fair # of mediocre starts (like 4-5 innings, 3-4 runs) which aren’t quality but also doesn’t bury the team in a huge hole.

That being said, the rotation has clearly been the weak link on this team although the innings provided the rotation aren’t terribly unique among contenders.
You want to talk about good health in the rotation, when Sale starts on Saturday, he will be only the seventh pitcher to start a game for the Sox this year. It's been Eovaldi, Pivetta, Perez, ERod, Richards, and Houck. That's it. Last time the Sox had that kind of consistency in the rotation was 2004 where only 8 total pitchers started games, and two of them made one start each (Abe Alvarez in a DH spot start and Pedro Astacio on the next to last day of the season).

If only this year had that kind of quality to go with the reliability.
 

Apisith

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The Rays put up 8 runs in all three games. That's just not going to do it.

Pivetta is our worst starter now that Richards and Perez have been demoted. If Pivetta can put up a decent start (I'll take 5IP/2ER or 6IP/3ER at this point), we'll win. The Orioles suck. And then Sale is starting the next game. We'll win his start. If we can win two in a row, we can win three a row. And then we get the Yankees, whose season we can end with a big series. And then we get a bunch of losing teams. The season's not over.
 
The season's not over.
Not by a long shot. The staff has been facing series after series against the best hitting teams in the league for two and a half months now, so it's understandable that the starters would be looking rough and the bullpen gassed. The rest of the season is a lot easier, which will hopefully lead to more of what we've seen over the last few days: starters turning in good outings with the offense providing enough of a lead by the time the bullpen comes in that Cora can heavily use the dreck side of the pen: Robles, Davis, Perez, Richards, Rios, etc.

Hopefully that will allow the arms that are needed in important games to recover a bit.

The offense has been gaining a lot of steam as well, with a wOBA of .351 in the last week and .336 on the month as a whole, compared to .327 on the season.

I kinda can't believe that Dalbec is actually hitting. Season long two week wOBA splits:

  • April 1-15: .229 (37 PA)
  • April 16-30: .314 (39 PA)
  • May 1-15: .321 (43 PA)
  • May 16-31: .235 (31 PA)
  • June 1-15: .290 (23 PA)
  • June 16-30: .377 (35 PA)
  • July 1-15: .217 (47 PA)
  • July 16-31: .249 (38 PA)
  • Aug 1-14: .559 (32 PA)
Clearly two weeks is too little time to really make much of, but it's by far his best stretch this year. Some of it is BABIP noise, but his K rate is creeping down a bit and his BB rate up. If Dalbec could hit at even a bit above replacement level it'd be a pretty big deal for the team. Maybe he is just doing his best JBJ impression, but even so just this two weeks has been enough to bring his season totals up to only -.1 WAR.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Rays put up 8 runs in all three games. That's just not going to do it.

Pivetta is our worst starter now that Richards and Perez have been demoted. If Pivetta can put up a decent start (I'll take 5IP/2ER or 6IP/3ER at this point), we'll win. The Orioles suck. And then Sale is starting the next game. We'll win his start. If we can win two in a row, we can win three a row. And then we get the Yankees, whose season we can end with a big series. And then we get a bunch of losing teams. The season's not over.
And here they are post-Orioles series having swept them while the Rays lost 2 out of 3 in Minnesota. Yeah, it's the O's and they suck, but the slide has at least plateaued if not stopped and the deficit in the division is back down to 3. Maybe it's just a quiet Sunday night but the panic seems to have abated for the moment.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1428174561942589447



Again. The narrative that the Sox collapse is because bloom didn’t go all in on the team is false and Nothing more that hot takes from the bomb throwers on the radio.
That assumes a lot, doesn’t it? Who knows how the potentially acquired players would have done, and the ripple effect. It’s impossible to know. If they miss out on a playoff spot by a game or two….

I mean, someone could just as easily say look at how and this team has done - they clearly needed a jolt, and that’s just as reasonable.

Narratives are always simplified explanations of complex things. All we know is what happened, not what could have. It seems safe to say that what Bloom did do, has not helped and this team is clearly not the team it was a few months ago. The why can’t really be answered, never mind in a sound bite.
 
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nattysez

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Their next 9 games are against below-.500 teams (TEX, CLE and MIN), so if they want to make a run, the time is now.

The next 9 games after that are a home and home with TB sandwiched around 3 with Cleveland.

Dominate the bad teams and play tough v TB and things will look a lot sunnier.
 

cantor44

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The thing that really got to me with tonight's game was the poor defense in the Yanks big inning. Both JD and Dalbec not making plays that were very makeable and that good fielders make the strong majority of the time. And like it or not, that IS kinda on Bloom. The obvious need was getting a first baseman. Instead he a got an injured DH/Outfielder. And by dint of his health and/or inability to acclimate to first base in reps before games, does not fulfill that team need. Instead Schwarber - god love 'em he's got a good bat - creates a redundancy of DH types, that forces JD to the outfield, which then forces a good fielding outfielder out of the game. And it doesn't help at first base ....so, while Schwarber adds offensive depth, I'm not sure, in totality, his addition is a net positive ...

That was fully on display during this series against the Yankees. So a team that that had some clear weaknesses sorta addressed one but only by creating new weaknesses, while not solving an obvious problem.

I guess that means the REAL Red Sox, right now, are in some ways not better than before the deadline in any way aside from the rotation, and in some ways worse. Defense is certainly worse ...bullpen burned out and worse. Offense theoretically better, but not in results ....
 

BaseballJones

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I think you’re right. The obvious and most glaring need was an MLB-caliber first baseman. That would help both defensively and offensively. And there were some to be had.

They didn’t get one. I hope Casas truly is the 1b of the very near future because it’s a hole moving forward as well.

Still, I thought that Sale and Houck would shore up the pitching staff, and that would leave only one real key piece to get. They got the bat part of it but clearly they didn’t get the real piece they needed. So it’s a bit of a mess.
 

grimshaw

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They are dead last in defensive efficiency as well which results in a significant gap between their FIP (8th in the league) and ERA (16th). That's definitely been an area of concern. Here is a month old article highlighting just how bad they have been. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-red-sox-are-historically-bad-at-catching-the-baseball/

Having Arroyo back should help, but getting the optimum lineup is going to be difficult. It's nice to have Schwarber's bat in there, but how much more defense can the team sacrifice with an already meh staff?
 

mfried

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They are dead last in defensive efficiency as well which results in a significant gap between their FIP (8th in the league) and ERA (16th). That's definitely been an area of concern. Here is a month old article highlighting just how bad they have been. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-red-sox-are-historically-bad-at-catching-the-baseball/

Having Arroyo back should help, but getting the optimum lineup is going to be difficult. It's nice to have Schwarber's bat in there, but how much more defense can the team sacrifice with an already meh staff?
We are not in good shape for the home stretch of the 2021 season.
 

YTF

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Their next 9 games are against below-.500 teams (TEX, CLE and MIN), so if they want to make a run, the time is now.

The next 9 games after that are a home and home with TB sandwiched around 3 with Cleveland.

Dominate the bad teams and play tough v TB and things will look a lot sunnier.
They'll need to do more than play tough vs Tampa. They need to dominate the weaker teams and win series (and possibly need to sweep one or two of the remaining) against TB and NY. It's nice if they get help from the outside, but right now they need to pull their collective heads out and play better against everyone.
 

sean1562

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Honestly, while the Red Sox have been bad of late, the Yankees are just playing out of their minds. They have a .705 winning percentage since the beginning of July. They probably underperformed a little in the first half but it will be difficult to maintain a lead when your opponent is winning games at that kind of pace. They did enter the season as the favorite to win the division and they have been playing up to those expectations for the past two months. 17-4 this month, playing 21 games in 21 days.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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What’s he going to do about it?

Until he starts making changes that lead to better results his anger is just noise.

We saw this movie in 2019 and it ended poorly. So far it’s more of the same this year. Lord knows I can appreciate Cora’s anger but until he does something about it it’s just futile.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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What changes can he make? He could bench Vazquez and make Plawecki the starter. Pull E-Rod from the rotation and call up Seabold? Call up Munoz? The other bench guys are Duran, Arauz, and Shaw….not sure starting any of them is advisable.

The deadline is passed and there isn’t much depth on the 40-man, hard to see any impactful moves to make.
 

Rovin Romine

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What changes can he make? He could bench Vazquez and make Plawecki the starter. Pull E-Rod from the rotation and call up Seabold? The other bench guys are Duran, Arauz, and Shaw….not sure starting any of them is advisable.

The deadline is passed and there isn’t much depth on the 40-man, hard to see any impactful moves to make.
The man's a baseball genius, an awesome communicator, and is very much respected by the players. He's good with the press, and takes the pressure off his players. His teams play hard and professionally, because he's kept them loose and ready. Remember it's a marathon, not a sprint, and better days are yet to come.

I agree it's totally unreasonable that he can't be given a different roster to win with. Because we know when he has a totally stacked team like the 2018 and 19 Sox he can win epicly. Or at least half the time.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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What changes can he make? He could bench Vazquez and make Plawecki the starter. Pull E-Rod from the rotation and call up Seabold? Call up Munoz? The other bench guys are Duran, Arauz, and Shaw….not sure starting any of them is advisable.

The deadline is passed and there isn’t much depth on the 40-man, hard to see any impactful moves to make.
He can bench Vazquez for starters. That lacksadadical tag attempt deserves it. He can bench guys for base running errors (two more tonight). He can change lineups, or have different bullpen strategies. He cannot throw up his hands and do nothing.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Ha, I hear ya. All this talk from Cora now seems too little too late. The team has been playing like trash for nearly a month. The teams best player called a game three weeks ago a must win, and it’s only gotten worse since. 18 was incredible, flags fly forever, etc…but that’s two straight years where Cora has shown no ability to right a sinking ship.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The real question, is there any manager that could right this sinking ship? It's a talent issue, not a managerial one.
It’s the same talent that was in first place after ~100 games (maybe even better with Sale and Schwarber). They are losing a lot of games to less talented teams, and playing completely uninspired and sloppy baseball. It doesn’t seem like a lot of these losses are due to lack of talent; it’s poor game planning and execution.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The real question, is there any manager that could right this sinking ship? It's a talent issue, not a managerial one.
I would argue that 5 errors and two more baserunning mistakes are definitely not a talent issue. It’s a “their heads are firmly up their asses” issue.

Plus, the Rangers suck, yet the Sox allowed 17 hits to them while unable to Mount any offense. They took the night off. Unacceptable.
 

BigSoxFan

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Ha, I hear ya. All this talk from Cora now seems too little too late. The team has been playing like trash for nearly a month. The teams best player called a game three weeks ago a must win, and it’s only gotten worse since. 18 was incredible, flags fly forever, etc…but that’s two straight years where Cora has shown no ability to right a sinking ship.
In fairness to Cora, he’s still probably getting used to a managerial environment where he’s not able to cheat.
 

Harry Hooper

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It’s the same talent that was in first place after ~100 games (maybe even better with Sale and Schwarber). They are losing a lot of games to less talented teams, and playing completely uninspired and sloppy baseball. It doesn’t seem like a lot of these losses are due to lack of talent; it’s poor game planning and execution.
Plus, there's the 2019 season as additional data.
 

voidfunkt

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In fairness to Cora, he’s still probably getting used to a managerial environment where he’s not able to cheat.
Come on...

It’s the same talent that was in first place after ~100 games (maybe even better with Sale and Schwarber). They are losing a lot of games to less talented teams, and playing completely uninspired and sloppy baseball. It doesn’t seem like a lot of these losses are due to lack of talent; it’s poor game planning and execution.
I dunno... I don't see Cora throwing the ball, playing a position, or swinging the bat here... I'm really not sure what he's supposed to do. Either the guys perform or they don't perform. Is he supposed to pep talk them into being good at baseball?
 

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“You’re never as good as you look when you’re winning...never as bad as you look when you’re losing”

Well, half of that cliche is true for his team.

Hitters are having pathetic at bats, short pitch counts...swinging early for the fences and happy to make quick outs (except for Bogaerts and Schwarber). Swinging at balls and taking strikes. What’s with the hitting coaches.

Pitchers are tossing 25 pitches an inning and walking opponents. Throwing balls and meatballs. What’s with the pitching coach?

Runners suck. Fielders suck. Where’s the coaching?

For the first time this season I saw a team that literally didn’t give a shit.

I don’t think it’s just coincidence that this slump coincides with the deadline. It’s as if players thought, “If management doesn’t believe in us then fuckit, give me my paycheck. No way we catch the better teams.”

Yes, it’s ultimately the players that play, but they’re still human,

Except for Vazquez.