Who Should The Sox Extend?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Do we know if it's too late to offer Pivetta a deal that replaces his contract for this season?

E.g., could we offer him something like 4/$55 starting *this season*, replacing his 1/$7.5? That would tack on 3/$47.5 of new money, but shift a bit of CBT hit into this year. Even 5/$70m would be pretty interesting.



Crawford makes sense if the valuation is low enough. He's risky, but if the FO believes he's a real mid-rotation starter, the time to commit is before that fact is obvious to everyone. Crawford is 28 and in his second pre-arb year, and given his age, he's unlikely to ever get a huge contract. Could we get him to bite on a five-year deal at $35m (i.e. including one additional year of control), with a $15m club option/$5m buyout for another year? That would have an $8m AAV, I think.

I don't believe it is too late to rip up this year's deal and replace it in Pivetta's case. Used to be that AAV was locked as of Opening Day but that's no longer the case. It's all about the contract language.

As for Crawford, I'm not sure if there's a lot to gain extending him through only one year of free agency. As it is, his first year of free agency will be his age 33 season. I expect letting him go year-to-year would result in something like 4/25 or so (900K, 4M, 8M, 12M). Unless we think he's going to break out big time (like out of nowhere Porcello-style with a CY season at age 28-29), I don't think he's going to command a salary in 2029 that would be unwieldy for this team to match. I like Kutter, but I want to see him make it through a full season with 150-160+ innings before I worry about locking him down for 2029 and beyond.

 

[chawson]

3/48m, which is what I thought was a fair extension for him in ST is starting to look unrealistic if he keeps pitching like this.

This version of Pivetta really is phenomenal. No idea what kind of extension offer would make it work, and of course there’s at least slight concern about injury with these new pitches. I don’t think 3/$48M gets it done at this point — think it would have happened by now — but who knows.

If they don’t work something out, then this version of him should really fetch a deadline haul. Better that than let him walk in FA, even with a QO.

 

[chrisfont9]

This version of Pivetta really is phenomenal. No idea what kind of extension offer would make it work, and of course there’s at least slight concern about injury with these new pitches. I don’t think 3/$48M gets it done at this point — think it would have happened by now — but who knows.

If they don’t work something out, then this version of him should really fetch a deadline haul. Better that than let him walk in FA, even with a QO.

No, we need him going forward, or it's just one more guy we have to find somewhere else. If he goes to FA we can make a QO and a good offer.

 

[Rasputin]

If you suddenly start extending all your minimum salaried guys, aren’t you losing a lot of the benefit of having them around? Or at least transferring a lot of that value to fairly far out in the future? I think you probably have to pick and choose a bit.

On the one hand, yes.

On the other hand, is that really a problem?

Imagine for a moment, the Sox sign Roman Anthony to a 7/56 deal after this season. He gets paid $1 million in 2025, and does okay for a rookie. He gets paid $1 million and does okay for a rookie again in 2026 when he's no longer a rookie. He gets paid $2 million in 2027 and regresses a bit. Starting year 4, where he would normally start getting expensive, he's basically on a 4/53 deal. A one WAR player was worth about $8 million. What's that number going to be in 2028 when he's paid $13 million? For a guy with a wide array of skills, there's gonna be someone who thinks they can get one WAR out of him.

When you're doing it with your top prospects, you're doing it with guys who are going to get a few years to figure it out regardless of what they get paid.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

On the one hand, yes.

On the other hand, is that really a problem?

Imagine for a moment, the Sox sign Roman Anthony to a 7/56 deal after this season. He gets paid $1 million in 2025, and does okay for a rookie. He gets paid $1 million and does okay for a rookie again in 2026 when he's no longer a rookie. He gets paid $2 million in 2027 and regresses a bit. Starting year 4, where he would normally start getting expensive, he's basically on a 4/53 deal. A one WAR player was worth about $8 million. What's that number going to be in 2028 when he's paid $13 million? For a guy with a wide array of skills, there's gonna be someone who thinks they can get one WAR out of him.

When you're doing it with your top prospects, you're doing it with guys who are going to get a few years to figure it out regardless of what they get paid.

It boils down to the AAV though, not what they're paying them in actual cash. Doesn't really matter if Anthony is getting $1M in 2025 and 2026 if the cap hit is $8M. That's the puzzle GMs have to try to put together, and heart of the discussion of pulling salary forward.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Is it too soon to extend Andrew Bailey?

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Is it too soon to extend Andrew Bailey?

I came here to post exactly this.

Not sure how much credit he gets for the early pitching results, but first trip through the rotation has been what… a 1.29 ERA?

28 innings
4 earned runs
17 hits
1 walk
37 strikeouts

 

[bosockboy]

Is it too soon to extend Andrew Bailey?

I think he’ll be extended in the form of being the next manager.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I think he’ll be extended in the form of being the next manager.

no! Keep him as the pitching coach, that is obviously where he excels. Him and Breslow seem to work great together in that dynamic. If it’s not Cora, they will find the right guy. Varitek?

 

[bosockboy]

no! Keep him as the pitching coach, that is obviously where he excels. Him and Breslow seem to work great together in that dynamic. If it’s not Cora, they will find the right guy. Varitek?

If we don’t, another organization will. We won a ring with John Farrell.

 

[YTF]

no! Keep him as the pitching coach, that is obviously where he excels. Him and Breslow seem to work great together in that dynamic. If it’s not Cora, they will find the right guy. Varitek?

I've no crystal ball, but let's suppose for a moment that Bailey gets elevated to manager. I'm sure he'll be very tuned in to what's going on with the pitching staff, he and Breslow will continue to work in concert and whoever replaces Bailey would have to be 100% in line with the work that's being done now. I don't see Breslow holding Bailey back if he wants to manage and I'm not sure he let's him walk out the door for the opportunity to do so.

 

[Adirondack jack]

If we don’t, another organization will. We won a ring with John Farrell.

The list of former pitchers turned (successful) manager is brief. Lasorda, Bud Black and Farrell is about the list. Surely Im leaving a few out, but regardless the list is small

Whether Bailey should be given a shot (guessing Cora is almost out the door) is besides my point aside to say the season is young. If Bailey turns this staff into a playoff team, though, count me in on giving him a crack in breaking the norm.

 

[bosockboy]

The list of former pitchers turned (successful) manager is brief. Lasorda, Bud Black and Farrell is about the list. Surely Im leaving a few out, but regardless the list is small

Whether Bailey should be given a shot (guessing Cora is almost out the door) is besides my point aside to say the season is young. If Bailey turns this staff into a playoff team, though, count me in on giving him a crack in breaking the norm.

Roger Craig also.