It's always possible that Hanley to 1b is a ruse to seem less desperate in trade talks.garlan5 said:
Who plays 1B next year?
- Thread starter johnnywayback
- Start date
nvalvo said:
Thats also possible. I will say his bat in April was looking pretty damn good. It's a shame injuries may be affecting him or maybe they aren't. It's hard to say. I think he'd make a nice DH after Ortiz but I think we're a couple years away from Papi retiring
“@ScottLauber: Hanley says shoulder injury occurred on a throw from left field. First told team about it during series in Detroit in early August #RedSox”
“@IanMBrowne: Hanley Ramirez said his right shoulder has bothered him for weeks. Finally an explanation for him losing all production at plate.”
“@IanMBrowne: Hanley Ramirez said his right shoulder has bothered him for weeks. Finally an explanation for him losing all production at plate.”
Even after Shaw's hot August, he's been more than serviceable in September, posting a 124 wRC+ in the month over 82 PAs. He's still got a slightly high (but not awful) K rate at 21% this month, but his BB% is up to 11% as well. BABIP remains well over .300 but he always posted strong BABIP figures in the minors and his 30% hard hit rate suggests he should post a decent BABIP. Now, his HR/FB rate probably is not going to remain at 18%, but even with a bit of normalization there and on his balls in play luck, you're still talking about a guy who is potentially a ~110 wRC+. That'd be a very nice, cheap piece to have on either corner next year. It's still only 200 PAs, but the signs are there that he deserves a real role for 2016.
I've also been pleasantly surprised with his defense - not fantastic athleticism but good instincts and seems very smooth. Has jussst missed a couple of great plays, and has rarely failed to make the routine outs.
I've also been pleasantly surprised with his defense - not fantastic athleticism but good instincts and seems very smooth. Has jussst missed a couple of great plays, and has rarely failed to make the routine outs.
Yeah, Shaw is one of those under-the-radar guys--because he has never looked like a potential star, it's easy to forget that he has always looked like a potential average-ish player. He could be really valuable to the Sox over the next few years as a quality fallback option in case of (pretty likely) injury or underperformance at the infield corners, and if he does need to step in as a starter, he seems good enough to be a viable short-term bridge to Travis or Devers. And there's always the possibility he blossoms into a guy who doesn't need to be a bridge to anybody--he seems like a possible candidate for a "poor man's Youkilis" kind of career.
Thing is, not many teams need a 2016 first baseman. Maybe the Brewers, Rays, Orioles, Nats?
Trade Shaw and his lovely little 2015 to a team that can use a cost-controlled, league average first baseman, and sign a guy like Adam Lind or Mark Reynolds to a short contract. If we could get Corey Knebel from the Brewers, great.
Hanley is going to be a monster at first.
Trade Shaw and his lovely little 2015 to a team that can use a cost-controlled, league average first baseman, and sign a guy like Adam Lind or Mark Reynolds to a short contract. If we could get Corey Knebel from the Brewers, great.
Hanley is going to be a monster at first.
By "a monster" do you mean a horrible fielder? Otherwise I can't see why you're suggesting acquisition of Lind or Reynolds.chawson said:
Also, why acquire Lind, Reynolds, etc. when Shaw is far cheaper, has more years of control, and far more defensive versatility?
The 1B situation to at least open next season looks pretty set if you ask me. Hanley goes in as the starter with Shaw as a frequent backup and defensive sub. Shaw can also back up 3B and in a pinch LF. If Hanley bounces back great, the team has a great hitting 1B for the next year or two who slides to DH just in time for Sam Travis to get his feet wet in a platoon role with Travis Shaw. If Hanley flops then Shaw gets a larger role and Travis might need to see a bit of an accelerated timetable or we hope Allen Craig figures it out, however unlikely that is. Its about as much depth as any club can be expected to field at a single position.
chawson said:
This makes no sense. If Shaw is going to be a "cost-controlled, league average first baseman", aren't the Red Sox a team that can use such a thing? Why would they trade that away to sign someone similar to a more expensive deal?
Unless a trade of Hanley is in the cards for this winter, I just can't see the Red Sox exploring the free agent or trade market for a first baseman. Not with the positive signs Shaw has shown since being thrust into the lineup. It would seem Hanley is plan A and Shaw is a solid fallback plan B for now.
Drek717 said:
Because 5-6 years of Shaw on the cheap has more value to another team than he does to ours, with Hanley under contract for four years and nowhere else for him to play.
I expect we'll all have a long offseason of heated speculation about whether Hanley will be a horrible defensive first baseman. I think he'll be fine, but if you don't, that's ok. There's literally no meaningful evidence either way.
chawson said:
Until he's injured, or has another defensive meltdown, or Ortiz is injured or retires.
While I appreciate the "sell high" mentality, Shaw's 25, has options, and represents near ideal organizational depth for this team. He can play 1B, cover 3B, hit LHP well, and has decent upside. He's not blocking anyone as Sam Travis isn't a sure thing - and even if he was, he won't be ready for awhile.
He's very likely going to be what everyone reasonably hoped Brice Brentz might be (as a bat), except he's 18 months younger. He's also been pretty much what everyone hoped Allan Craig would be.
I don't get the urgency to jettison him. I think, absent some mega trades which'd address 1B, the Sox have to keep him.
chawson said:
Hanley's under contract for four years, but the DH spot could be open in as little as one year. Shaw can co-exist on the roster as a bench player, or on the Pawtucket shuttle, for a year without much harm. It's not as though his trade value is or ever will be at a level that he would fetch a significant and needed piece in return.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Sam Travis, a better player than Travis Shaw, will likely be ready by the time Hanley takes over for Ortiz in 2017.
Look, Maybe Dombrowski feels the way you do and keeps Shaw around. Certainly possible given the caution around Hanley. But his ceiling is a Loney-type. He's not someone you build around.
He's had a solid 200 major league PAs playing way above his minor league track record. If, say, the Nats offered the last year of recently-Papelboned Drew Storen's contract, I'd be interested in that.
What do you think you would get for Shaw? You`re trading his value, which has to do alot with his low cost and versatility. For what another bench player or average RP. Then sign Reynolds or Napoli for more money and less chance to upgrade the pitching. I`m confused how this would help.chawson said:
You are getting alot of replies. I wish their were like and dislike buttons on every post.
chawson said:
If Hanley can play a passable -> average 1B, why should he be moved to DH?
In this hypothetical situation where Ortiz goes retires in 2017 (which I don't buy in the least), wouldn't the Sox be better served trying to get another power DH like Edwin Encarnaion?
keninten said:
Good questions! Barring some total makeover, it's hard to say what Dombrowski would be looking for besides an ace and bullpen help. I kinda randomly chose Knebel but he's a solid closer prospect and Dombrowski was the one who drafted him in the first place.
I don't think Drew Storen is an average RP. He'd be an expensive-ish set-up guy and solid Koji insurance, and would net a pick. Maybe you think Shaw is worth more? Possibly. Maybe he puts up a .250/.320/360 year in 2016 and becomes a non-tender candidate?
Well, we should add that Hanley's been shut down for the season due to ongoing shoulder problems. He's 31, and the Sox have him signed for the next 4 years though his age 35 season. There's a very decent chance he'll recover and be productive. However, we don't know if that'll happen for next year, or if he's got some undisclosed structural problem that might require surgery and/or sap his power. If the latter, I wouldn't expect the Sox to be announcing that, if they even know at this point. There's a very good argument to be made that sitting him, even if he's only dinged up, is really in everyone's best interest at this point.
Ladies and gentleman, we have found our new Daubach ... er, Nava. I look forward to the next few years debating how much he could be worth to other teams vs. how much value he provides to the Red Sox until his inevitable early decline.
I'll put down a marker, then.
Shaw is useful to the team as long as he is a) earning the minimum and b) has options. After that point, unless he's shown a lot more offensive oomph over the coming years than his minor league track record suggests he will, he's indifferent in terms of surplus value. (Same with Marrero, btw.)
At that point, you get out ahead of the inevitable early decline — which is the key to getting value out of the old-player-skills types.
Shaw is useful to the team as long as he is a) earning the minimum and b) has options. After that point, unless he's shown a lot more offensive oomph over the coming years than his minor league track record suggests he will, he's indifferent in terms of surplus value. (Same with Marrero, btw.)
At that point, you get out ahead of the inevitable early decline — which is the key to getting value out of the old-player-skills types.
The Red Sox have real financial constraints. 5-6 years of a cheap player who can post a >110 OPS+ offensive line while backing up 1B, 3B, and LF is a very valuable asset for this exact club.chawson said:
Also Hanley, if he's a poor 1B, can move to DH as soon as Ortiz vacates. We all would love for that to be "never" but history tells a different story about players from 40 on.
Travis Shaw looked pretty good in AA not too long ago himself. Lets give Sam Travis some time before we crown him the heir apparent at 1B and start shipping out all the cost controlled alternatives.chawson said:
Sure, if some team is daft enough to offer a borderline all-star reliever just entering his arb. years for him you jump on it, but I really don't see that happening.
And maybe people should lay off on the prognostications about Shaw's future based on his mL track record and presumed ceiling. He's blowing all those presumptions out of the water and he's not doing it on the back of a massively inflated outliers. His BABIP of .318 isn't wildly out of league average and pretty close to some of his normal mL runs. His ISO is high but he's posted a similarly high ISO in a similar sample just last season in AA, and he'd be far from the first player to see a power surge upon moving to the majors. He's cooled off from his early hot streak, gone into a bit of an o'fer, and then come out of it to hit yet again.
This doesn't mean he's a lock to be a good ML regular, but he's one hell of a nice insurance policy for both Hanley and Pablo that costs basically nothing.
The value inefficiency this club could capitalize this off-season to get something worthwhile is Brock Holt. He would have real value as he could be a pretty solid starting 2B or OF for quite a few clubs or maybe even a David Eckstein-esque SS if a team was feeling brave. He's made an all-star game and has some name cache as a result. He's still young. He's now hit well in large samples for two seasons in a row. That is the bench player on this club other teams would be interested in making into a starter and therefore give decent value to acquire. The ascension of Shaw and having Marrero makes him a piece the Sox could afford to part with.
Not that I'd necessarily go hunting to achieve that. The notion that young, solid players with years of club control remaining as bench guys as some sort of wasted value just makes me shake my head. Clubs should want to have that "problem", not trade those guys away for whatever they can get only to then pay market rates for veteran retreads who are clearly only employable as backups themselves.
Just saw on Gammon's feed the Sox are trying to find a spot at Winter ball for Shaw to workout at third base.
BestGameEvah said:
I know there are some rules about who is eligible for what winter ball leagues, where would he be playing if he did go? Since he has less than a full season of ML experience can he play in Arizona, or are players who finish the year on an MLB roster a no go?
I feel Hanley hurt himself in the outfield back in May and just did himself more harm than good trying to play through it. If you listen to Hazen and his comments on Hanley and Panda it sure seems like they're doubling down on the duo for next year. Which I'm fine with since it gives the Sox a good bat at 1st and elite defense in the outfield. Seriously they need an ace, some pen pieces and a little bit of luck and they can contend.
Is there a Youtube or anything of Hazen speaking on this? Didn't see anything in the Hazen thread.Tyrone Biggums said:
Another thought, I don't quite get the elite D in the OF part being anything new though. Hadn't Dombrowski already made it clear about no Hanley in the OF ever again?
Weei had an interview with him and he mentioned the Lackey contract as a talking point of not to judge things after one year. I'd agree with this. Could also be GM speak since the worst thing you can do is say all the bad reports are true when you're trying to deal someone.Al Zarilla said:
soxhop411 said:
His season is over.
The best thing for him now that surgery has been ruled out (for now) is to start his shoulder rehab which would be delayed if he travels with the team for their last two series.
More important to get started with his therapist back home ASAP
soxhop411 said:
I know it's the media's job to create drama when there isn't any in order to drum up clicks, but why is it odd for Hanley to forego the final road trip of the season if he's not going to play? He's injured and all he can do is rehab it. He needs to travel with the team to NYC and Cleveland in order for the training staff to work with him, what, an hour a day?
Apparently, Hanley has TWO bad shoulders!
Gammons post about the whole Panda - Ramirez situation:
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-ramirez-and-sandovals-future-in-boston-power-arms-on-the-rise/
Gammons post about the whole Panda - Ramirez situation:
http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-ramirez-and-sandovals-future-in-boston-power-arms-on-the-rise/
From that article ..BestGameEvah said:
Pitches Thrown 96 MPH+
2008 — 14974
2011 — 17725
2013 — 21905
2014 — 24888
2015 — 33496
That's just .. Amazing .. I don't know what to make of that.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/09/30/how-did-red-sox-salvage-something-from-lost-season/fOKD6dBTwr1KwYaA6HpplL/story.html?event=event25
From Alex Speier's article today. Sure seems like despite all public declarations, Hanley will be shopped aggressively this offseason.
Before dumping Ramirez, consider how important his RH power and good average bat is to the Red Sox lineup in 2016. Forget about 2015 - he's young and has proven himself to be an elite hitter.
Let's predict Ortiz maintains the remarkably high level of hitting he's shown. I think he deserves that considering how he keeps proving his critics wrong.
The only projected RHH power threats on the Red Sox are Castillo (possible, but has proven nothing) and maybe Betts - who could surprise and hit 20-25 but is not batting behind Ortiz.
Who protects Ortiz at #4? 2013 Mike Napoli ain't walking through that door (I don't think). Projecting Shaw as a legitimate power guy is fine (albeit unproven) - but he's still a leftie. The current answer is either Castillo or Ramirez.
The Red Sox really need a Cruz/Encarnacion type to pair up with high-floor/high-ceiling Bogaerts and the ageless Ortiz.
It's something to consider before punching out on Hanley (it's too bad Ortiz can't play a regular 1B).
{And as an aside - talk of dumping Sandoval must be accompanied with a real name to replace him...not just a cut-your-nose-off feel-good complaint}
Let's predict Ortiz maintains the remarkably high level of hitting he's shown. I think he deserves that considering how he keeps proving his critics wrong.
The only projected RHH power threats on the Red Sox are Castillo (possible, but has proven nothing) and maybe Betts - who could surprise and hit 20-25 but is not batting behind Ortiz.
Who protects Ortiz at #4? 2013 Mike Napoli ain't walking through that door (I don't think). Projecting Shaw as a legitimate power guy is fine (albeit unproven) - but he's still a leftie. The current answer is either Castillo or Ramirez.
The Red Sox really need a Cruz/Encarnacion type to pair up with high-floor/high-ceiling Bogaerts and the ageless Ortiz.
It's something to consider before punching out on Hanley (it's too bad Ortiz can't play a regular 1B).
{And as an aside - talk of dumping Sandoval must be accompanied with a real name to replace him...not just a cut-your-nose-off feel-good complaint}
geoduck no quahog said:
He's 32 on Opening Day. That's not young, though it's not quite old yet.
Sorry, I'm not getting this.
Sandoval was -by far- the worst third basemen in all of baseball last year, and probably the worst player in all of baseball. There has been a lot of talk about his defensive decline (a stunning -22 UZR/150) but his .288 w/OBA was also the worst performance of any major league third basemen. And he wasn't just bad compared to other third basemen, his -2 WAR was dead last in all of baseball. Combine this with his outrageous salary and he's pretty much the runaway choice for the league's LVP. The issue with dumping Sandoval is not that we would need to find someone to replace him (granted, outside of shifting Craig to 3B it may be difficult to find someone to replicate his 2015 numbers) but that there is zero chance anyone would take him from us. If you want a good bet for an improvement on Sandoval's 2015 production (outside of picking up a random third baseman from an independent league) there are several options on the roster who have a good chance of pulling this off (Shaw and Holt for certain and probably Marrero, Ramirez and even Rutledge).