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Which Current MLBers Will Be In the Hall of Fame?
- Thread starter Wingack
- Start date
6?
Trout, Freeman, Harper, Betts, Goldschmidt, Votto, are locks (at least I think they are). I'd even put Altuve in there. Among pitchers, Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, Kimbrel they're also all locks.
Soto's only played 7 seasons. He's not a no-doubter, just like Judge, or Stanton, or Acuna, or Arenado are. And for pitchers, I'd put Sale, deGrom (crazy that he only has 84 wins, but I think so long has he can get to 110 in his career he has a shot -- 2 CYA and played on some terrible teams), Jansen and Cole on the outside as of now. All these guys in the second tier have to stay healthy for a while longer to get in.
You forgot a certain Japanese superstar, assuming he isn't actually some sort of problem gambler.
Also, Sox fans won't like it, but this dude is absolutely on that track.
Oops. Verlander is actually active. Kimbrel I had conveniently forgot. Considering Max, Greinke, and Kershaw as non-active currently, but they're in.
Counted it as :
No doubt:
Soto (young, but so way ahead of track)
Trout
Betts
Altuve
Arenado
Goldie
On track, almost in:
Harper
Freeman
Ahead of track but young and injury history:
Acuna
One of the GOAT but off field doubt:
Ohtani
50/50
Machado
Judge
Cole
Votto
Kenley
Decent chance
Sale
deGrom
Lindor
J. Ramirez
Counted it as :
No doubt:
Soto (young, but so way ahead of track)
Trout
Betts
Altuve
Arenado
Goldie
On track, almost in:
Harper
Freeman
Ahead of track but young and injury history:
Acuna
One of the GOAT but off field doubt:
Ohtani
50/50
Machado
Judge
Cole
Votto
Kenley
Decent chance
Sale
deGrom
Lindor
J. Ramirez
It would be, but I don't know. Days like yesterday make me feel me feel like he is more likely to stay a Yankee.
I think the idea of being a Yankee Hall of Fame player is an appealing thing to him. Rather than going to the Mets for the highest dollar and being on a team that is viewed as a bit of joke in the same city.
I agree, I’m just in the denial stage. He can hit 600 homeruns playing in Yankee Stadium the rest of his career, and he seems like one of those rare players who feeds off the east coast, big market craziness. Harper in Philly is a good example.
He's interesting. 7 consecutive top 5 Cy Young finishes without any firsts. The only guy with more Cy Young "shares" while never winning is Adam Wainwright (Schill is 3rd).
As it is now I don't think he gets in but if he has a nice little resurgence in Atlanta with some postseason glory, I could see it.
I think he’s borderline; that last terrible year didn’t help him. I think he’s in the group of guys like Jon Lester who weren’t quite as good as the Scherzer / Greinke / Verlander / Kershaw, who are locks. Maybe they make it in by some veterans committee years down the road; since after those four guys mentioned above, not sure what SP will ever get in.
I think you can make an argument for Wainright and Lester. But it’s probably a long shot- they’re probably most comparable to guys like Cone, Pettitte, Hershiser, etc who never got serious consideration.
My instinct is no, but if 200 wins becomes the new 300? Him v Sale is classic quality v quantity:
Wainwright
200 W 2668 IP 114 ERA+ 40.9 WAR
Sale
122 W 1805 IP 137 ERA+ 47.6 WAR
Believe it or not, with 4-5 more normal, healthy-ish years, he probably gets to 3000 Ks, which is still one of those numbers that gets people in.
First ballot Hall-of-Famers if they retired tommorow:
Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts
Guys over the age of 35 that will eventually make it, just maybe not on the first ballot:
Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt
Early-to-mid 30's guys on track to make it:
Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Manny Machado, Noland Arenado, and Bryce Harper
Relievers:
Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel
A couple of interesting cases (WAR is not the be-all end-all, but 60 bWAR is considered a decent threshold for the HOF borderline):
-Juan Soto - 30 bWAR coming into his age 25 season. He's been so good at such a young age it would take a massive fall off for him to not at least reach the borderline.
-Shohei Ohtani - 35 bWAR coming into his age 29 season. He will get a ton of extra credit for being a two player beyond whats calculated in WAR. Who knows how his body will hold up.
-Aaron Judge - 41 bWAR coming into his age 32 season, but you have to remember that he didn't become a full time major leaguer until age 25.
-Jose Ramirez - 46 bWAR (same as Harper) coming into his age 31 season. He doesn't have the hardware or gaudy numbers, but over a seven year span his MVP finishes are 3rd twice, 2nd, 6th, 4th and 10th.
There are really no starting pitchers, young or old, near the borderline. The standards for a HOF pitcher will probably have to change.
Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts
Guys over the age of 35 that will eventually make it, just maybe not on the first ballot:
Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt
Early-to-mid 30's guys on track to make it:
Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Manny Machado, Noland Arenado, and Bryce Harper
Relievers:
Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel
A couple of interesting cases (WAR is not the be-all end-all, but 60 bWAR is considered a decent threshold for the HOF borderline):
-Juan Soto - 30 bWAR coming into his age 25 season. He's been so good at such a young age it would take a massive fall off for him to not at least reach the borderline.
-Shohei Ohtani - 35 bWAR coming into his age 29 season. He will get a ton of extra credit for being a two player beyond whats calculated in WAR. Who knows how his body will hold up.
-Aaron Judge - 41 bWAR coming into his age 32 season, but you have to remember that he didn't become a full time major leaguer until age 25.
-Jose Ramirez - 46 bWAR (same as Harper) coming into his age 31 season. He doesn't have the hardware or gaudy numbers, but over a seven year span his MVP finishes are 3rd twice, 2nd, 6th, 4th and 10th.
There are really no starting pitchers, young or old, near the borderline. The standards for a HOF pitcher will probably have to change.
The interesting cases, to me, will be Votto, Greinke, and Jose Ramirez. In my Hall there is definitely a case for Votto and Greinke but Jose Ramirez strikes me as a bit of the modern day Bobby Abreu. I know he puts up big numbers consistently but he doesn’t strike me as a HoFer.
Ramirez has always been a plus defender, has four Top 5 MVP seasons and will likely retire as the 2nd best position player (behind Jim Thome) in Cleveland history, while spending his career at positions that are underrepresented in Cooperstown. He also stands a good chance of an "all with one team" boost. He still needs to compile some career stats, but if he hasn't struck you as a Hall of Famer, you haven't been paying attention.
Well, unless I missed someone, here are the recent SP inductees (inducted since 2014):
Maddux | 107 WAR, 132 ERA+, 355 W, 3371 K
Johnson | 101 WAR, 135 ERA+, 303 W, 4875 K
Martínez | 83 WAR, 154 ERA+, 219 W, 3154 K
Mussina | 83 WAR, 123 ERA+, 270 W, 2813 K
Glavine | 81 WAR, 132 ERA+, 305 W, 2607 K
Smoltz | 69 WAR, 154 ERA+, 213 W and 154 SV, 3084 K
Halladay | 64 WAR, 131 ERA+, 203 W, 2117 K
Morris | 44 WAR, 105 ERA+, 254 W, 2478 K
Sale has three years remaining on his Atlanta deal and has 48 WAR, a 137 ERA+, 122 W and 12 SV, and 2216 K. He already has a better resume than Morris IMO, but Morris is a pretty startling outlier on this list, so that's not exactly a huge endorsement.
But if Sale can stay healthy — MASSIVE IF — he could finish his reworked Atlanta deal with (wild-ass guesses) ~60 WAR, an ERA+ in the mid-130s, 150+ W (and Atlanta is probably a good team to be on for pitcher wins), and maybe 2900 K. And If he does something approaching that, he could certainly find takers to pitch another season or three somewhere in his late 30s, in which case he'd likely shake out squarely in the Halladay/Smoltz tier. Those seem like credible HOF credentials to me.
Ehh I think Sale is kind of a long shot at this point. He is 35 and hasn't been healthy/great since 2018. He is probably more of a 2-3 WAR pitcher at this point in this career and he doesn't seem like the type of pitcher who will be throwing until he is 40. Halladay won 2 Cy Youngs, had a playoff no hitter, a perfect game, and was inducted shortly after his death. I think Sale is gonna end up like Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez. He would need 3 4 WAR seasons just to hit 60, which seems unlikely.
I think Sale's contract is just this season and next season, with a team option for 2026.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39240986/chris-sale-braves-agree-2-year-38m-extension-sources-say
I think Sale's contract is just this season and next season, with a team option for 2026.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39240986/chris-sale-braves-agree-2-year-38m-extension-sources-say
Ramirez is also 9 years younger than the other two. If he stays productive he could put up some pretty impressive numbers by the time he reaches 40.
I don't think DeGrom even has a chance to get to 110 wins. At his current pace lately he would need to pitch 6 more years until he is 41 just to get to 110 wins.
Even if he gets there, I don't think he deserves to be in Cooperstown. Won 2 CYA with 10 wins and 11 wins in seasons where he should have lost both those awards to Nationals pitchers (Scherzer and Strasburg)
I don't know how anybody who saw Nomar's career arch can think that Soto is a no doubt Hall of Famer at this point. Yeah, he'll probably make it, but all it takes is one fluke injury.
Regarding pitchers -
Just to look at last year's election - Fred McGriff has a bWAR of 52. Recent starters in this neighborhood include Kenny Rogers, Johan Santana, Orel Hershiser, Wilbur Wood, David Wells, Kevin Appier, Dave Steib, Chuck Finley, etc... Is anybody campaigning for their addition?
Scott Rolen is better at 70, but that puts him in the company of a few guys like Rick Reuschel and Kevin Brown who didn't get a sniff.
This is not to say that bWAR is the be-all-and-end-all of performance measurement, or to say that Rolen or McGriff don't belong in the Hall or that any of the other names do, but there's a lot of really, really good but not all-time great hitters in Cooperstown but not very many similar pitchers. Why is that?
Regarding pitchers -
It seems like the standards for starters has been ridiculously high. Jim Kaat should also be on this list and, to me, his qualifications are pretty questionable, more a lifetime achievement award than an actual Oscar, but he's hardly the Harold Baines of pitchers either. Otherwise, You've got Morris, who never should have gotten in, and Mussina who never won a Cy Young but was in the top 5 six times, and then you've got 15 Cy Young Awards between the other six guys, with Smoltz as the only player with just one. It would be like only batters who had won MVPs getting elected.
Just to look at last year's election - Fred McGriff has a bWAR of 52. Recent starters in this neighborhood include Kenny Rogers, Johan Santana, Orel Hershiser, Wilbur Wood, David Wells, Kevin Appier, Dave Steib, Chuck Finley, etc... Is anybody campaigning for their addition?
Scott Rolen is better at 70, but that puts him in the company of a few guys like Rick Reuschel and Kevin Brown who didn't get a sniff.
This is not to say that bWAR is the be-all-and-end-all of performance measurement, or to say that Rolen or McGriff don't belong in the Hall or that any of the other names do, but there's a lot of really, really good but not all-time great hitters in Cooperstown but not very many similar pitchers. Why is that?
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Yeah I don't see it with Sale at all, barring a career renaissance. A very good pitcher who was a definite ace during his prime, but struggled with durability over the second half of his career. His peak wasn't nearly good enough to make up for those shortcomings.
Santana and Sale have fairly similar career numbers, but unlike Sale, Santana was the undisputed best pitcher in baseball in his prime--he won two CYAs and should have won three in a row but was screwed in 2005 despite clearly being the best pitcher in the league. He led baseball in WAR for three straight seasons from 2004-2006, and I think is someone that will be reconsidered for the HoF down the line.
One reason is I think hitting the statistical benchmarks for pitchers is very difficult without accumulating a lot of WAR. I think of a guy like Don Sutton, who wasn't really that good--only four ASGs, ranks 391st in Black Ink as he hardly ever led the league in anything, his 7-year WAR peak of 33.9 is well below the HoF average of 49.9. But he's in the HoF primarily because he hit two key benchmarks, 300 wins and 3,000 strikeouts. You simply can't get to 300 wins without being very solid for a very, very long time and because of that Sutton, finishes with a very respectable 66.7 career WAR, even if it took him 5,200 innings to do it.
Hitters on the other hand, we know they can reach some lofty totals without being hugely valuable players, at least according to WAR. There are plenty of players with 400+ homeruns that were not Hall of Fame quality hitters, but once you get over 400 homers people at least start asking the question on if they are a HoF player, and then a player like McGriff can sometimes sneak in despite having a relatively low WAR.
WAR also factors in a player's defensive contributions, or in this case, a lack of defensive contribution, in a way that has largely historically been ignored. Power hitting first baseman or corner outfielders that were not contributing at all defensively are penalized by WAR in a way that players have never really been penalized previously. Again, to use McGriff as an example, as a hitter you could make the case that he was HoF worthy, but his WAR is weighed down by the fact that he was a lousy defensive player.
This post made me wonder about Gerrit Cole's case, so I looked up Cole's numbers out of curiosity and it seems like he should have more wins, but assuming (huge assumption) he comes back healthy he has to be considered on track to make the Hall.
Cole has 40.7 WAR, a 130 ERA+, 145 W and 2152 Ks.
Based on FWar, deGrom led the NL in WAR both years he won the Cy Young (9.0 and 6.9, respectively). BWar had him second to Nola (9.7) at 9.5 with Scherzer 3rd at 7.9 in 2018 and first at 7.2 with Strasburg fifth in the NL at 5.6 in 2019.
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Changed your mind on the Coors hof case with arenado somehow being a lock while Machado is only 50-50?
I think we’re rapidly approaching a point with Pitchers where we need to decide if we’re going to value quality or durability… because I’d take Johan or DeGrom in the HoF for sure over some of the more ‘likely’ options that are just very good for 15 years rather than spectaular for 3-5.
Johan is the hill I’ll die on in particular, because I agree on that one - to me it’s one thing to say having one crazy season shouldn’t get you in the HoF, but around 3 years is the tipping point to me where if you’re the best player over a multi year period, I think you’re in.
It's a couple things. If you're considering the pitcher position as just one of 9 (or 10 with the DH), then you're only going to put the best of the best at that spot in the Hall of Fame. You wouldn't put the 5th best second baseman of the 2010s in, so putting the 5th best starter in feels like the same thing to a voter even if they have a bigger impact on an individual game.
There are also more ways for a position player to be great than a pitcher. You could be a defensive wizard, a big power hitter, or an all time great base stealer as a position player. As a pitcher you need to get outs and not give up runs, whatever your pitch mix happens to be. Your changeup might be the best anyone has ever seen, but if your ERA isn't great, you're not getting voted in.