Which AL East team(s) would you trade places with right now?

[chawson]

I'd been preparing this post before Bloom's firing, but it obviously strikes a different note now. This hypothetical came up in conversation with an anti-Bloomer friend and I've been thinking a lot about it. Could make an interesting exercise.

Which AL East franchise(s)' next five seasons (2024-28) would you rather have over the Red Sox?
Select all that apply and explain your answer—and if you like, how you'd rank them—in the comments.

The Red Sox farm system is better off than it was in 2020. Most system rankings in 2020 had us between 25th and 30th in MLB, and the major-league team had very few long-term assets in the black. FanGraphs had us 29th in 2020; now we're 4th. The future looks pretty good, I'd say.

However, the AL East, already a perpetual juggernaut, may be stronger than ever. And the way it seems, the teams with the least spending power are the best set up for success over the next few seasons. Will those teams spend? Will the Sox, captained by a new FO, push a $300 million payroll like other big-market teams?

Who knows what the next few seasons will bring. But knowing what you know now, which team would you rather have?

CBT thresholds
2024 - $237M
2025 - $241M
2026 - $244M

Baltimore
Farm system rank (per FG): #8
Notes: Incredibly loaded young team whose window has opened a year or two early. Prospects lean toward position players. Historically limited spending power, but literally no financial commitments past 2024.
Notable players under team control: Santander (FA '25), Mullins, Mountcastle (FA '26), Rutschman, Batista, Kremer, Baker (FA '28), Bradish, Henderson, Cano (FA '29), Rodriguez (FA '30)
Top prospects (per FG): Holliday (Future Value 60), Mayo (55), Ortiz (50), Kjerstad (45+), Povich, Cowser, Norby, Hall, Beavers, Bradfield Jr., Fabian (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): none
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $87 million (29/30)
2024 $ commitments (rank): $6 million (30/30)
2025 $ commitments: 0 (30/30)
2026 $ commitments: 0 (30/30)

Boston
Farm system rank (per FG): #3
Notes: Surging farm system with top-level prospects leaning heavily toward position players, though some interesting arms in the lower levels. Historically elite spending power with recent question marks. PoBo/GM in transition.
Notable players under team control: Jansen, Martin (FA '25), Houck, Story, Yoshida (FA '28), Bello, Casas, Crawford, Duran, Whitlock, Wong (FA '29), Devers (FA '34)
Top prospects (per FG): Mayer, Bleis (55), Rafaela, Yorke (50), Anthony, Teel (45+), Alcantara, Bastardo, Drohan, Gonzalez, Romero, Zanetello (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Story (-35.8), Sale (-11.8, FA), Turner (-9.8), Whitlock (-9.8)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $224 million (11/30)
2024 $ commitments: $137 million (7/30)
2025 $ commitments: $76 million (13/30)
2026 $ commitments: $81 million (9/30)

New York
Farm system rank (per FG): #25
Notes: Top-notch international scouting. Elite spending power. Two of the game's best players signed to long-term deals with a sudden absence of role players. Restless fan base, potential for front office/managerial change. Good building block in Volpe.
Notable players under team control: Rizzo (FA '24), German, Holmes, Loiasiga, Torres (FA '25), Cortes, King (FA '26), LeMahieu (FA '27), Schmidt, Stanton (FA '28), Rodón, Volpe (FA '29), Cole (FA '29 or '30), Judge (FA '32)
Top prospects (per FG): Dominguez (50), Pereira (45+), Sweeney, Warren, Thorpe, Jones, Lombard Jr., Mayea (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Stanton (-72), Rizzo (-16.1), Cole (-13.7), LeMahieu (-8.6)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $294 million (2/30)
2024 $ commitments: $186 million (2/30)
2025 $ commitments: $163 million (1/30)
2026 $ commitments: $146 million (1/30)

Tampa Bay
Farm system rank (per FG): #4
Notes: Excellent player development system. Tons of team-controlled talent. OTOH, they just lost a massively valuable franchise shortstop indefinitely, lost one ace to TJS and, if history is any guide, may trade another (Glasnow, 1/$25). Does their pitching philosophy lend itself to increased injury?
Notable players under team control: Glasnow, Kittredge (FA '25), Civale, Diaz, Eflin, Margot (FA '26), Arozarena, Fairbanks, B. Lowe, Rasmussen, Springs (FA '27), Baz, McClanahan, Paredes, Siri (FA '28), J. Lowe (FA '29), Bradley (FA '30)
Top prospects (per FG): Caminero, Mead, Williams (FV 55), Montgomery (45+), Basabe, Taylor, Colmenarez (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Franco (-163) *contract may be voided
2023 payroll/lux tax projection:
2024 $ commitments: $74 million (19/30 - *includes Franco)
2025 $ commitments: $54 million (17/30 - *includes Franco)
2026 $ commitments: $27 million (22/30 - *includes Franco)

Toronto
Farm system rank (per FG): #22
Notes: Terrific team whose window is now—in fact, it may be slowly closing. Toronto has spent big on Gausman, Berrios, Bassitt, Varsho, Springer, Ryu, Chapman, Merrifield, and have one Wild Card series loss to show for it. Solid, if aging, core built around Guerrero and Bichette.
Notable players under team control: Kikuchi, Jansen, Merrifield (FA '25) Bassitt, Bichette, Guerrero Jr., Romano (FA '26) Gausman, Kirk, Springer (FA '27), Manoah (FA '28), Berrios (FA '29)
Top prospects (per FG): Tiedemann (FV 55), Barriera (45+), Barger, Jimenez, Kasevich, Martinez, Nimmala, Macko, Zulueta, Lopez (45)
Underwater players (below $-5M, per BTV): Berrios (-23.9), Bassitt (-19.6)
2023 payroll/lux tax projection: $248 million (6/30)
2024 $ commitments: $114 million (11/30)
2025 $ commitments: $105 million (7/30)
2026 $ commitments: $66 million (14/30)

I used FanGraphs payroll breakdowns, didn't bother getting into details on specific contract provisions. Aiming for a broad overview but let me know if anything's substantially off, omitted or inaccurate.

 

[jon abbey]

It’s a mistake to use those FG farm system rankings, they are way behind updating and many of their evaluations are from before the 2023 season.

 

[JM3]

This is the most recent FG stuff (Baltimore #8). Looks like you used those ranks for everyone else.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

JA almost certainly right, though on the individual player evaluations being stale.

 

[chawson]

This is the most recent FG stuff (Baltimore #8). Looks like you used those ranks for everyone else.

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings

JA almost certainly right, though on the individual player evaluations being stale.

You're right, thanks.

It’s a mistake to use those FG farm system rankings, they are way behind updating and many of their evaluations are from before the 2023 season.

Okay - I needed a FV cutoff so I wasn't comparing unequivalent top tens across organizations. Those were readily available.

Is there another more updated site for individual rankings that uses FV or equivalent? I wanted to go a little deeper than guys in the Top 100 but don't want to list everyone's full prospect list.

 

[JM3]

BTW didn't mean to sound dismissive. It's a cool thread idea & I definitely plan on giving it thought later.

It will be hard for me to rank the Red Sox before I know who they're going to hire, though.

 

[simplicio]

Like most, I voted Baltimore. Not only is their system excellent, the guys they graduate keep being infuriatingly good at the MLB level. Plus they're about to get a ROY bonus pick.

 

[jon abbey]

Is there another more updated site for individual rankings that uses FV or equivalent? I wanted to go a little deeper than guys in the Top 100 but don't want to list everyone's full prospect list.

It's pay (and my subscription ended) but I think Kiley McDaniel at ESPN (formerly of FG) does the best job at keeping lists updated as players develop and regress.

 

[ZMart100]

Baltimore and it's not close after Franco. They have a better MLB roster. They have better high end MiLB prospects. We have Anthony and Mayer but I would personally sail them through Lee to trade them for Holliday and Mayo. They are a little short of pitching but everyone is and Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish are a better start than what we have.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think the only answer, other than the Red Sox, is Baltimore. And that's only because they have the ability to carry a larger payroll if they want/need to. In other words, I think they're capable of locking up the Rutschmans and Hendersons for a sustained run. Whether they choose to do it is the question mark, and with the Angeloses in charge, there's no sure answer.

Tampa's the only other team in a reasonably good position, but it's really tough to get behind Tampa knowing they're never going to spend money. They might maintain their competitive level, but it's a high-wire act that could go the way of their 2014-2017 run pretty easily. Especially if the pipeline dries up and they can't/won't spend their way through such a period.

 

[moondog80]

Definitely Baltimore. Probably Tampa but that's close.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Definitely Baltimore. Probably Tampa but that's close.

Yeah. Tampa is an easy “yes” for me with Wander. Without him, I probably lean “no”.

 

[chawson]

I think the only answer, other than the Red Sox, is Baltimore. And that's only because they have the ability to carry a larger payroll if they want/need to. In other words, I think they're capable of locking up the Rutschmans and Hendersons for a sustained run. Whether they choose to do it is the question mark, and with the Angeloses in charge, there's no sure answer.

Tampa's the only other team in a reasonably good position, but it's really tough to get behind Tampa knowing they're never going to spend money. They might maintain their competitive level, but it's a high-wire act that could go the way of their 2014-2017 run pretty easily. Especially if the pipeline dries up and they can't/won't spend their way through such a period.

This is where I'm at too. The Orioles have a mighty pen and position prospects galore. OTOH, they've got rotation questions behind Rodriguez and Bradish, and they don't have a tremendous track record for identifying major league talent over the last five years, and their immense prospect depth is at least partially negated by our ability to outspend them.

 

[Humphrey]

Tampa would be a pass due to the stadium/relocation issues that are coming up after the 2027 season.

 

[JM3]

Tampa would be a pass due to the stadium/relocation issues that are coming up after the 2027 season.

Relocation out of that stadium seems like a positive rather than a negative. But I lived in St. Pete for a while so I may be biased.

 

[moondog80]

Yeah. Tampa is an easy “yes” for me with Wander. Without him, I probably lean “no”.

With the guys Tampa has on hand and their somehow-still-loaded farm system, I think Tampa's window remains open for a while, even without Franco. I assume they will continue to flip guys as they get close to free agency. If they continue to have great success (Chris Archer for Baz, Glasow, and Meadows), the window will be extended. But even for Tampa, they don't all work out. Blake Snell turned into nothing. A few of those and it's some lean years.

 

[brienc]

I picked the Red Sox because they have the best combination of stable ownership, and prospects. Baltimore or Tampa seem appealing on the surface, but both teams could relocate in the near future, and neither club will spend with the current ownership. No amount of prospects in the cupboard is worth that kind of instability.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Interesting question and I think it is impacted by each teams ownership and management. I would take Baltimore’s players, but I have little confidence in the organization’s ownership to not screw it up. Seems like they are playing over their heads this year and may be due to regress next year. Then, how does their loathsome ownership react?

Tampa seems like they will always be in the mix, but who knows what their ownership plan is as well with uncertainty over their future.

Toronto has seemed loaded for years but something is just off with that team and there’s no way they will be able to keep Vlad and Bichette together forever.

Yankees seem kind of meh right now but you know they will spend and can never count them out.

I think the Sox situation seems better when you take a more critical lens towards the competitors, in a “what would I fear if I was a fan of this team”.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Interesting question and I think it is impacted by each teams ownership and management. I would take Baltimore’s players, but I have little confidence in the organization’s ownership to not screw it up. Seems like they are playing over their heads this year and may be due to regress next year. Then, how does their loathsome ownership react?

Tampa seems like they will always be in the mix, but who knows what their ownership plan is as well with uncertainty over their future.

Toronto has seemed loaded for years but something is just off with that team and there’s no way they will be able to keep Vlad and Bichette together forever.

Yankees seem kind of meh right now but you know they will spend and can never count them out.

I think the Sox situation seems better when you take a more critical lens towards the competitors, in a “what would I fear if I was a fan of this team”.

Yeah I think this analysis is pretty good. If I could switch Baltimore’s player personnel with Boston’s, I would. But if the FO/ownership has to come with it, I think I decline.

Boston seems well-positioned for the 2nd half of this decade but 2024 might be a smidge early. Baltimore, Tampa, and Toronto look like better teams next year…with the caveat that the Red Sox can do some spending this offseason so we’ll see how that shakes out. But I do really like the Red Sox’ position for 2025 and beyond. Baltimore is looking great there too, but like you, I wouldn’t trust that ownership to not screw it up.

 

[Bertha]

I chose Boston for a few reasons. One is I remain an optimist and while i feel a few other AL east teams may outplay the Sox in 2024, I think we are poised for a very nice 5-year run. The optimism includes the hiring of a new POBO who can maintain a strong farm system while simultaneously addressing major league needs and having fallback options for inevitable injuries.

Baltimore ownership is the other main reason for not choosing them. The Orioles are in a good situation right now, but the Angelos family has the innate ability to make lemons out of lemonade.

 

[bosockboy]

If we hire the right guy, we should be battling Baltimore for the next 6-7 years.

Toronto is really not doing anything with the window they are in.

 

[bosockboy]

I picked the Red Sox because they have the best combination of stable ownership, and prospects. Baltimore or Tampa seem appealing on the surface, but both teams could relocate in the near future, and neither club will spend with the current ownership. No amount of prospects in the cupboard is worth that kind of instability.

Baltimore might relocate? I’ve missed this.

 

[brienc]

Baltimore might relocate? I’ve missed this.

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-lease-john-angelos-wes-moore-6FNXN3UPRBHZVPSVCE6LDWOY24/

Relocation doesn’t seem likely, but who knows what happens when the shakedown of the city of Baltimore doesn’t go well. Either way, the Orioles are not worth being envious over with that ownership.

 

[moondog80]

Baltimore has spent in the past. They were 9th in payroll as recently as 2016 and 10th in 2017. I know it's the next generation Angelos in charge now and they haven't spent at all the last few years, but you could say that it hasn't really made sense for them to spend the last few years, and now it does. Including estimates for all their arb guys, they have less than 25 million in commitments next year. If they get the payroll to what they spent in 2017, that gives them more than $135 million to play with. They could be scary, scary good.

 

[Benj4ever]

https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-lease-john-angelos-wes-moore-6FNXN3UPRBHZVPSVCE6LDWOY24/

Relocation doesn’t seem likely, but who knows what happens when the shakedown of the city of Baltimore doesn’t go well. Either way, the Orioles are not worth being envious over with that ownership.

From the article: "Negotiating with the Orioles organization was 'like trying to nail Jell-O to a wall.'"

John Angelos sounds like he's just as much of a jerk as his father ever was, and that's saying something.

I chose Boston because Casas, Bello, Rafaela, et al. are my guys...well, that and some of the reasons previously mentioned.

 

[AB in DC]

I'd say Baltimore but they still have Angelos to deal with.
I'd say Tampa but they still have a shithole stadium and more drama on the way.
New York has too many albatross contracts
Toronto always seems to underperform and I don't know why.

So Boston kinda seems like the least bad of all five.

 

[LogansDad]

I pick Boston first. Rafaela has surprised me so far with his transition to MLB, and I expect some regression as the league catches up to him, but he is insanely talented. Devers is locked up long term, Casas is a stud, Bello an ace in the making, and once Story is a joy to watch at SS (and I believe he will start hitting again). Obviously all of the prospects won't hit, but I am really confident that some combination of Teel/Anthony/Mayer/Yorke/Jordan will fill the rest of the solid core for the second half of this decade, and while the pitching is a little further off, there are some really exciting young arms that we will hopefully be seeing around '25 or so.

Baltimore is an easy second for me. I know the ownership is sketch, but Elias is really good at his job, the coaching staff is getting the most out of their mid-level players (guys like O'Hearn and Hicks have been such perfect additions to their club this year), and allowing their prospects to both fail and excel. They are set up beautifully for the next 6+ years, and, frankly, the team is an absolute ton of fun to watch.

Tampa is third for me. Much like Baltimore I really enjoy watching the way their team plays baseball. Maybe it's PTSD from watching Kiké "play SS" for half the season, but something about watching Tampa's defense and pitching is just different than watching this year's Red Sox (and more enjoyable, in a lot of ways). That said, I don't think I could ever be a "true fan" of this team, just because of the way they run the business side of things, and I expect the best players will be moving on to other teams before too long, while likely being filled in with solid replacements. It's effective strategy, to be certain, it just doesn't make me want to get invested.

(I will break quickly here to say that over the years since 2018, I have become more of a fan of "baseball" than just the Red Sox. It has happened for various reasons, both baseball related and personal life related, but I am just as likely at this point to sit down and choose to watch the Diamondbacks play the Reds as I am to watch any given Red Sox game. I really like this Baltimore team, and guys like Eflin, Arozarena, Margot and the differently pronounced Lowe's are just as fun to watch for me as the hometown players at this point in my life)

The Blue Jays are fourth. They have some fun players, but so much of their plan (if that's what you can call it) is trying to make a big splash at every position in free agency or via trade, that I just don't feel like I could ever be invested in the team. I like Vlad and Bichette is uber-talented, but they always seem like the sum is less than the multiplication of their parts for some reason. As much of a dick as Kiermaier seems, he's an incredible center fielder and I should love watching him play, but I don't. Merrifield steals a lot of bases, but somehow feels less of a dynamic and entertaining player to me than he probably should. Something about this team just rubs me the wrong way and I honestly can't place my finger on it. It feels like trying to push a square toy through a round hole, and the toy is just small enough to fit through the hole, but it just feels wrong.

Fuck the Yankees.

 

[AB in DC]

It feels like trying to push a square toy through a round hole, and the toy is just small enough to fit through the hole,

Everything fits into the square hole.

 

[PRabbit]

Either Boston or Baltimore depending on who's running the front office here. Good question by OP, but we'd have a better idea in February after FA

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

I think it really depends on what Baltimore is willing to do in terms of payroll. If they are planning to increase their payroll into the upper third for the next 5 years then for sure Baltimore. If they plan to stay in the bottom third then I think it's arguable to go with the Sox. As others have stated, without Franco I wouldn't pick TB over the Sox. With Franco it'd be a tough call.

 

[singaporesoxfan]

Toss-up for me between Baltimore and Boston for all the reasons listed here (I think I lean Boston, but Baltimore might be willing to spend and if so that city will turn out in support), but as an aside it's depressing to see Guerrero and Bichette - whose fathers' respective heydays I can remember - described as an "aging core"

 

[Rasputin]

I voted for Baltimore and Tampa Bay. Baltimore is where the Sox want to be in a couple years and Tampa Bay is what the Sox want to be--consistently good.

 

[chrisfont9]

This is like a Rorschach test of how you see life. I voted none. The four titles are so incredibly satisfying that I can get by on memories until the next one, which might appear on the horizon in a year or two.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

None. But I pretty much always see things through Red glasses.
Having said that, I actually do feel this way.

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

This is like a Rorschach test of how you see life. I voted none. The four titles are so incredibly satisfying that I can get by on memories until the next one, which might appear on the horizon in a year or two.

I wasn't even considering this as a historical switch, just a straight trade of personnel at all levels. If we're talking about trading history then absolutely I wouldn't trade with any other team and it's not even close to close.

 

[chrisfont9]

I wasn't even considering this as a historical switch, just a straight trade of personnel at all levels. If we're talking about trading history then absolutely I wouldn't trade with any other team and it's not even close to close.

Yeah, I wasn't reading it quite that way, just saying that because of the history, I am willing to wait. There's no single right answer, unless your preference is to win right now, in which case Tampa, or next year, in which case maybe Baltimore. But if you're willing to wait (and susceptible to believing all of the projection around Sox prospects), then there's a decent argument for staying put.