How long does DD and Cora stick with both Leon and Holt? Obviously with X out and Lin up.... it’ll be a while but this guy seems to be wasting away....
Wherefore art thou, Blake?
- Thread starter Sandy Leon Trotsky
- Start date
With D'Arnaud out for the season and the Mets looking competitive I wonder what they'd give for Blake...
WHEREFORE DOES NOT MEAN WHERE
Sorry, somebody had ta. That said....
He's only got two fewer PA than Leon, and half as many as the other two bench guys. Cora just hasn't used the bench much yet.
But yeah, if they don't start giving him some C starts soon, with Leon starting as badly as he has, it does start to look like they just don't think he can play there.
Sorry, somebody had ta. That said....
He's only got two fewer PA than Leon, and half as many as the other two bench guys. Cora just hasn't used the bench much yet.
But yeah, if they don't start giving him some C starts soon, with Leon starting as badly as he has, it does start to look like they just don't think he can play there.
I'll be patiently waiting for the explanation behind leaving Swihart pasted to the bench and PHing Leon for Holt today with the game on the line, because no matter how I try, I can't make sense of it.
i feel like we have a wrong mix of bench guys. i feel bad for swihart. his career is dying on the vine. and benny should play every day. i know, im incoherent.
I took the Xander injury thread on a tangent questioning trading Marrero instead of Holt. This is another (lesser) reason I'd prefer having Marrero. If Holt and Swihart split utility time behind Nunez, that means Swihart doesn't get enough PAs to develop/show what he can do/establish value. Marrero's a guy that you'd have no problems stashing on the end of the bench and using as a defensive replacement or occasional fill-in for Bogaerts/Devers. He wouldn't take playing time away from Swihart, who has the biggest upside - which necessitates opportunity to identify/confirm/unlock. And, seriously, if Sandy Leon is pinch hitting for Holt, why are we paying him $2.25M? It's early and we have two injured middle infielders, so I'm not reading too much into the bench usage yet, but I'd certainly prefer to see more Swihart than Holt or Leon.
I took the use of Leon this way: Swihart has only a nominal chance to be better than Leon against Chapman. If Leon gets a hit, there's the possibility of pinch running Swihart for Vazquez and Lin for Leon, with Betts coming up. Or maybe not.
Couldn’t you let Swihart hit for himself (considering both he and Leon both don’t have a great chance against Chapman), and if he gets a hit pinch run Lin for Vaz? Then you still have Leon on the bench.
Cora doesn’t trust Swihart. Not sure why he trusts Leon more though.
WHEREFORE DOES NOT MEAN WHERE
WHY is Swihart nailed to the bench? Is what I was asking in thread title. Yeah..., the construction of it seems sub-optimal. JDM should JUST DH. Then Swihart and/or Holt would make more sense...
WHY is Swihart nailed to the bench? Is what I was asking in thread title. Yeah..., the construction of it seems sub-optimal. JDM should JUST DH. Then Swihart and/or Holt would make more sense...
I get why Cora may be anxious to give Blake a start at 2B, but he needs to take the dive. Nunez looks absolutely lost, and if Blake is going to have a spot on this team, he is going to need to play 2B and 3B, as well as C. I'm hoping today's the day.
Yeh, you're right.
So it just comes down to Cora having more faith with Leon in that situation. Something about seeing the fastball maybe? We'll never know.
They probably just don't trust him as a catcher. Blake did have a case of the yips throwing back to the pitcher and they did move him off the position last year. It's always been speculated they didn't care for him much at C, most of us just kinda shrugged it off as nonsense.
I chalk this up to Cora taking behaviors and traits that he likes from the managers he's had over the years. I think he's giving rope to the veterans to allow them the opportunity to establish themselves in the pecking order. If Swihart doesn't get an opportunity while Leon and Nunez continue to suck into the late days of April, I would hope that Cora changes gears and adjusts his lineups accordingly.
I can't fault the guy for coming in as a new manager and giving the veterans a puncher's chance at getting going. We're 11 games into the season.
I can't fault the guy for coming in as a new manager and giving the veterans a puncher's chance at getting going. We're 11 games into the season.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/04/16/about-only-problem-red-sox-have-what-with-blake-swihart/VT63Mbn5ZpFm6dQnQFuqPK/story.html
Nick Carfardo reports: “When I asked Cora if he had any master plan for Swihart, he said, ‘Not really. It’s a work in progress.’ “
I think it’s simple. Swihart will have to hit himself on to regular playing time on this team.
Nick Carfardo reports: “When I asked Cora if he had any master plan for Swihart, he said, ‘Not really. It’s a work in progress.’ “
I think it’s simple. Swihart will have to hit himself on to regular playing time on this team.
Exactly. Bench players don't hit their way into more playing time unless someone gets hurt that gives them the opportunity to hit at all. One start and one late inning substitution a week isn't enough for anyone to make a significant impression. Just look at Lin. After he came up, he sat until Nunez's knee got balky and gave him an opportunity that thus far he's made the most of.
Frankly, I'm a little surprised that Swihart didn't get the start in LF (or RF) on Sunday with Betts down. He did go 2 for 3 replacing Betts on Saturday. Maybe he starts tonight if Betts still isn't 100%.
Likely someone on another team.
Lin seems to have rightfully surpassed Blake as the backup backup second baseman when Bogaerts returns, and Devers is looking great at third. The Sox have been too good to need it, but it's kind of wasted roster spot.
Joel Sherman tweeted a couple days ago that the Mets should consider trading Zack Wheeler for Swihart, who would replace the injured and otherwise disappointing Travis D'Arnaud. That may look lopsided in our favor with Wheeler looking good out of the gate, but Blake has three additional years of team control.
Right... but then what do you do with Zach Wheeler. We don't have any openings in our rotation either once Pomeranz comes back.
I would prefer us address our real need: the dearth of prospects on the farm.
I would prefer us address our real need: the dearth of prospects on the farm.
There's probably some veteran treatment favoring Holt so far. I don't think it's a stretch that Swihart could outhit Brock over 200 PA but Cora evidently wants to get him going.
He has worked out at 3b, 2b, and obviously LF and 1b, but has just 10 innings in the field between the latter two. Blah, blah college athleticism but It's entirely possible he doesn't look very good at those positions at the major league level in practice.
I can't recall another top prospect on the Sox both be this unlucky with injuries and never get an extended chance to prove himself. I'm not advocating for him, but it's a shame.
He has worked out at 3b, 2b, and obviously LF and 1b, but has just 10 innings in the field between the latter two. Blah, blah college athleticism but It's entirely possible he doesn't look very good at those positions at the major league level in practice.
I can't recall another top prospect on the Sox both be this unlucky with injuries and never get an extended chance to prove himself. I'm not advocating for him, but it's a shame.
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Yeah, I feel like this is the heart of the issue. If JDM was solely a DH, I think Swihart would be seeing a lot more playing time in LF. However, if that were the case it would mean Hanley would be playing first and Moreland would be on the bench.
Put another way, there's no real way short of injuries to get JDM, Hanley, Swihart and Moreland in the lineup all at the same time, so it becomes somewhat of a crapshoot as to whether they play more Moreland or Swihart. YMMV but so far they've obviously mostly gone the Moreland route, probably both because he is a veteran and because of JDM's stated desire to play outfield as much as possible (I assume there is a handshake deal involved in his signing where the Sox promised to try to get him at least a solid amount of time in the outfield, as unoptimal as that might be).
Fortunately or unfortunately so far, their only serious position player injuries have been at SS and 2B , I would think if they thought Swihart could handle 2B at all competently, he might have gotten a start or 2 there. If an OF misses some time, I would expect him to get starts in LF. And obviously if a catcher does, he'd get some there.
Yeah Cafardo's piece says they have looked more at 1b and 3b for infield options, plus OF. Being a switch hitter obviously gives him some platoon value, and while he can't simply hit his way into the lineup barring an injury, he can hit his way into some sort of increased usage whenever there's a platoon issue, minor injury, rest needed, etc.
It was surprising to learn Wheeler wasn't the long term asset I thought he was. He'd hit at the same time Sale, Porcello, Bogaerts, Nunez, and potentially JDM would. Trading Swihart for him is still something I'd consider — could free up EdRo for a trade, but that's a more complicated conversation.
If by "complicated" you mean "It's hard to imagine a trade of EdRo that would make sense for the Sox", I concur. With Pom in his walk year, Price able to opt out after after this year, Sale and Porcello FAs after next year and EdRo controlled through 2021, I'm not envisioning the Sox having any willingness to move him unless the return is overwhelming.
Agree, that overwhelming return being part of the incentive. The market for cost-controlled pitching is a far better one to be selling in than young catching. Getting Wheeler from a going-for-it Mets team desperate for a backstop in April may be one of the better chances to get value from Swihart left.
Otherwise, I feel like DD will eventually need the roster spot and end up swapping him for a middling A's reliever with options. Lucroy, Ramos and Realmuto will all likely be traded by the summer, and maybe one of those teams would be interested in Blake for their vacancy. Here, he's on pace for 108 PAs in his age-26 season, most of them garbage time.
I think a combination of factors has gone into Swihart's lack of playing time, including Hanley's hot start, JDM actually playing the outfield, Mookie being otherwordly, and Cora (seemingly) being unwilling to sacrifice defense for offense at C.
I think if he could play a competent 2B, we would've seen him there. Otherwise, 1B, C, and the OF are pretty locked up, so...
Looking at some numbers today on FG....Christian Vazquez is now at a 67 wRC+. That's about his 2014/2016 clip (in fact his slash is uncannily similar to 2014).
It's early, but so far Christian has been the fairly terrible hitter he had always been prior to last year. And of course Leon, in an admittedly tiny sample, has been that much worse.
How much longer does this continue before we can say definitively that the Red Sox do not intend to play Blake Swihart at catcher, like, ever?
It's early, but so far Christian has been the fairly terrible hitter he had always been prior to last year. And of course Leon, in an admittedly tiny sample, has been that much worse.
How much longer does this continue before we can say definitively that the Red Sox do not intend to play Blake Swihart at catcher, like, ever?
Vazquez did add 80 points to his OPS last night, so there's that. 
I do get the feeling that the organization doesn't really view Swihart as a catcher except as the break glass in emergency option. I haven't seen enough of him myself to really judge whether their assessment is correct.
I do get the feeling that the organization doesn't really view Swihart as a catcher except as the break glass in emergency option. I haven't seen enough of him myself to really judge whether their assessment is correct.
As long as the other two are on the roster, then it seems Swihart's not going to catch. I've still got the notion that Leon could get DFA'd at some point, but.... with the staff ERA at 2.82 and the SP ERA at 2.05, why on earth would anyone mess with the catching right now? Who cares how they're hitting?
Others have noted this, but the kind of developments that would create room for Swihart just haven't happened (yet). He's currently a casualty of things going so well. But it's a very long season. Maybe the best thing for him right now would be that the team keeps winning, runs away and hides from the rest of the division, and allows Cora to spread some ABs around all summer long.
Can you either define "terrible" or "always" for me? Because that statement is either saying a .734 minor league OPS for a catcher who was age-advanced at every level is "terrible" or 384 MLB PAs prior to last year as a young catcher is "always."
Leon: .167/.167/.167.
This defines terrible.
Now, a hot game or three could totally turn this slash line around. Swihart will be kept around, in case it doesn’t.
If you’re the manager, and the team is doing well as are the pitchers that Sandy catches, do you overlook the poor offensive performance?
For now. Leon can ride the team’s hot start and overall superb offensive performance to try to turn things around.
However, that’s not sustainable as a long-term strategy because an 83.3% out-making rate (even hidden at the bottom of the lineup), puts the offense at significant disadvantage when compared to the Astros and MFYs.
A better strategy, if Leon continues at such woeful production (say < .500 OPS) is to hand off duties of catching the challenging pitchers with sweeping breaking pitches (Sale’s slider and Price’s cutter, e.g.) to Vazquez, while letting Swihart catch part-time for pitchers whose stuff is easier to glove.
Sorry, should have added a qualifier -- I'm talking about his MLB performance. And yeah, you're right, that does gloss over the still-small sample a bit.
I think we all know that 18 AB doesn't represent a true talent level for Leon. He's a career 660 OPS guy. If that's an approximation of what he'll give this year, is that enough to just leave him alone as the 2nd C, rather than take the defensive downgrade to Swihart? I think it probably is.
Not in my opinion. Leon had a half season of success at the plate in 2016 that was great for us. But outside of 2012, he hasn't cracked a .700 OPS at any level. He's a replacement-level catcher who plays good defense. Dan Butler is his equivalent. If he had an option, I'd be wondering why Swihart isn't already the 2nd catcher. At some point, the Sox have to figure out 1) if Swihart can catch 50+ games in a season and 2) if he can hit at the level expected/hoped. He's a much more valuable player than Leon if he can, but I think it's going to be hard to find out #2 before #1.
I think it probably is, too. But, what I think doesn't matter. Vazquez has started 3 of every 4 games. [extrapolation alert!!] If Cora's intended use of the backup catcher is only 40 starts, is that few enough to accept the defensive downgrade, get Swihart more ABs, and add another position player to the bench? (Again, assuming the team thinks Swihart is a bona fide catcher).
I think if the Sox thought Swihart could catch 50+ games a season Leon would already be gone. The fact that he isn't strongly suggests they think the answer to #1 is "no," although whether that is due to overall defense, framing, pitch calling, respective comfort level with pitchers, who knows. I would guess a combination of all those factors.
Hey guys, this thread spurred me to finally sign up. Sometimes I think we hold on to things well past their due date, and this particular one drives me batty. Prospects bust all the time, and sometimes prospects were always overrated. At some point you gotta just let it go.
I guess I just don't really get the obsession with Swihart - even in the past, but especially now.
MLB
Swihart (26): 403pa, .357babip, 93wrc+
Vazquez (27): 780pa, .313babip, 76wrc+
Leon (29): 842pa, .308babip, 74wrc+
AAA
Swihart (26): 485pa, .285babip, 73wrc+
Vazquez (27): 445pa, .331babip, 101wrc+
Leon (29): 498pa, .296babip, 105wrc+
MILB
Swihart (26): 1716pa, .316babip, 102wrc+
Vazquez (27): 2193pa, .312babip, 107wrc+
Leon (29): 2319pa, .284babip, 89wrc+
aside from that babip blip in his smaller MLB sample, what exactly are we trying to hold on to here?
especially given that the other two are plus defensive catchers while Blake is probably below average behind the plate at best?
it's what, 4yrs now since he had that power blip in AA for half a season that got us all excited about him?
I guess I just don't really get the obsession with Swihart - even in the past, but especially now.
MLB
Swihart (26): 403pa, .357babip, 93wrc+
Vazquez (27): 780pa, .313babip, 76wrc+
Leon (29): 842pa, .308babip, 74wrc+
AAA
Swihart (26): 485pa, .285babip, 73wrc+
Vazquez (27): 445pa, .331babip, 101wrc+
Leon (29): 498pa, .296babip, 105wrc+
MILB
Swihart (26): 1716pa, .316babip, 102wrc+
Vazquez (27): 2193pa, .312babip, 107wrc+
Leon (29): 2319pa, .284babip, 89wrc+
aside from that babip blip in his smaller MLB sample, what exactly are we trying to hold on to here?
especially given that the other two are plus defensive catchers while Blake is probably below average behind the plate at best?
it's what, 4yrs now since he had that power blip in AA for half a season that got us all excited about him?
Actually, we don’t know what is a realistic approximation of what Leon will give the team on offense this year. The reason for that is because he’s only had 842 PA at the MLB level, spanning 6 different seasons. These seasons range from an OPS+ of -28 to 122, throwing out the sample of one PA from 2013.
I agree that if his true talent level is approximately the .650 OPS level from last year and averaged over his career, then that’s good enough. If, however, his production ends up more like is the .439 OPS from 2015, it may be worth it to swap out and see what Swihart can do.
Doing that isn’t needed at this juncture, but the Red Sox won’t remain this potent offensively throughout the full season, and the team may need to take a gamble on getting a better than ~50 OPS+ from one of the nine hitters.
Keeping Swihart around to ride pine allows them to retain that option.
Context needs to be considered.
Leon's MLB stats are buoyed by the 3 months in 2016 where he was someone other than Sandy Leon. In 198 PAs he slashed .350/.405/.571 with 7 HR for a 159 wRC+ (and a .220 ISO and .430 BABIP to round it out). In his other nearly 3000 professional PAs, he has 32 HRs. I don't know how this happened, but that was not the hitter that is or ever was Sandy Leon. 2012 is the only other season of his professional career in which he bested a .700 OPS. He's a .650 OPS guy. I'd love to see 2016 Sandy Leon again, but I think there's a very small chance of that ever happening. He is an adequate backup catcher, but nothing more unless lightning strikes the same place twice.
Vazquez, on the other hand, came to the bigs with a track record of mild success at every stop in the minors - while being one of the younger players in each league (and as a catcher). He's had trouble translating it to MLB, but consider that he was doing it at a young age and was interrupted by a year off due injury. His 2017 (.290/.330/.404) is pretty well in line with his minor league career, and I think approximates what should be expected.
Previous to Swihart's 2014 success that you cite, he put up a .794 OPS as a 21yo C in A+. He then followed up that 2014 with a 93 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR season in Boston. In the last 30 years, 12 other catchers** have had a season that matched those numbers at such a young age (23). 2016 started off in a similar fashion. So, it was two years ago that he was showing why his soxprospects write-up summarizes with this: "Future first-division regular and solid contributor across the board. Potential above-average hit tool and average power potential at a premium defensive position. Athleticism behind the plate immediately stands out. Natural instincts. Confident actions. Elite makeup and strong work ethic. Arguably the best catching prospect in the game right now." And then he got hurt. He's worked through that injury, but has been open about the fact that it affected his performance the last year and a half. I think it's clear that it did, and it drags down the numbers you posted. 2016-2017 is by far his worst period as a pro, and quite dissimilar from everything else. So, what I'm waiting for is a return to the player he was showing he was pre-injury two years ago. I don't know that it will happen. I don't know if he can even catch on a regular basis. But he never busted as a prospect. He got hurt. If good health returns him to the player he was becoming, he's possibly a notch above Vazquez and certainly more valuable than Leon. I'm waiting to see if he can be who we thought he was.
** - It's pretty good company: Joe Mauer, Jason Kendall, Brian McCann, Buster Posey, Salvador Perez, Gary Sanchez, Charles Johnson, Ivan Rodriguez, Wilson Ramos, Russell Martin, Yasmani Grandal, and Craig Biggio.
all i see with swihart's quick start in mlb is that .360babip (with lots of strikeouts and no power), and suspect defensive war due entirely to positional adjustment, and not actually on being good at it.
and he had decent hitting numbers at age appropriate A+ and AA, but imo nothing good enough to confidently project a quality mlb bat, especially dialling down to his bb/k numbers.
and "getting hurt" doesn't explain his overall very mediocre milb career and poor mlb career, imo.
either this kid busted or he was overrated to begin with - and i don't think holding on to some good but not great milb performance from 4+ years ago makes much sense anymore, tbh.
He was regarded highly only because of his position. It looked like he would be an above average hitting catcher. Remove him from the backstop and you got yourself a utility player.
Swihart made some top 20 lists but he was always more in the mold of a Will Middlebrooks or JBJ than a Ben10, Betts or Xander.
edit: He was also drafted at 19 coming out of HS. Someone did research on the age of prospects coming out of HS and 19 year olds fared far worse than 17-18 year olds. FWIW.
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As recently as Jan 2015, Swihart was a very highly regarded prospect. From the article linked below:
"Catcher Blake Swihart, who continues to impress with his consistent approach at the plate and his skills on the defensive side, is ranked No. 18. Though he didn't become a regular catcher until 2010, Swihart is now the game's top prospect at the position, reminding many of a young Buster Posey. He threw out 46 percent of potential basestealers in 2014 and didn't commit a passed ball in 97 games.
Mayo: Breaking down the Top 100 | Callis: Best tools in the Top 100
"Each year, [Swihart has] become more refined in his entire game," said Red Sox director of player development Ben Crockett. "At the plate, it's a lot about consistency, it's a lot about staying within himself, staying with the approach he needs at the plate to be successful attacking pitches. It's something that I think you saw improvement on over the course of the year in Double-A last year in terms of the pitches he was swinging at, the confidence that he had in the box.
"Then defensively, the same. He talked about some of the biggest challenges he had once he got to Triple-A last year was just learning the entire staff and really focus his energy on the defensive side. I think any of these guys, when they get called up to the Major Leagues for the first time, those are the kinds of basic expectations that the staff is looking for: reliable, consistent defense, knowing what you're supposed to be doing, knowing where you're supposed to be. Obviously that's amplified behind the plate, where you're trying to lead a starter or a guy you may not have caught or a guy you may not have caught for some time."
https://www.mlb.com/news/catcher-blake-swihart-leads-five-red-sox-prospects-in-top-100/c-107841818
"Catcher Blake Swihart, who continues to impress with his consistent approach at the plate and his skills on the defensive side, is ranked No. 18. Though he didn't become a regular catcher until 2010, Swihart is now the game's top prospect at the position, reminding many of a young Buster Posey. He threw out 46 percent of potential basestealers in 2014 and didn't commit a passed ball in 97 games.
Mayo: Breaking down the Top 100 | Callis: Best tools in the Top 100
"Each year, [Swihart has] become more refined in his entire game," said Red Sox director of player development Ben Crockett. "At the plate, it's a lot about consistency, it's a lot about staying within himself, staying with the approach he needs at the plate to be successful attacking pitches. It's something that I think you saw improvement on over the course of the year in Double-A last year in terms of the pitches he was swinging at, the confidence that he had in the box.
"Then defensively, the same. He talked about some of the biggest challenges he had once he got to Triple-A last year was just learning the entire staff and really focus his energy on the defensive side. I think any of these guys, when they get called up to the Major Leagues for the first time, those are the kinds of basic expectations that the staff is looking for: reliable, consistent defense, knowing what you're supposed to be doing, knowing where you're supposed to be. Obviously that's amplified behind the plate, where you're trying to lead a starter or a guy you may not have caught or a guy you may not have caught for some time."
https://www.mlb.com/news/catcher-blake-swihart-leads-five-red-sox-prospects-in-top-100/c-107841818
You can't really parse Blake without taking into account the positional bobbling in 2016 and 2017, or the surgery in 2016.