Where would this team be without the bullpen?

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

With a couple of exceptions, the bullpen is off to an amazing start. Some numbers for consideration:
 
69.2 IP
59 H
16 BB
63 K
18 R (17 ER)
2.20 ERA
Bullpen ERA- of 56
 
It's also notable that 15 of the 18 runs have been given up by Badenhop and Mujica. 
 
Back them out and you've got 50 innings of 0.54 ERA (ERA- of 12, which is sorta crazy). 
 
Currently, the bullpen ERA (a somewhat dodgy stat, but fine for the comparison I'm making) puts them 4th in all of MLB and 1st in the AL.
 
The AL average is 3.90 over 63 innings. 
 
So, the bullpen is pitching more than average at a drastically better performance level. If you back them down to average, you've got 9 more runs allowed, which would give them 79 runs scored vs. 100 runs allowed instead of the current 91. By Pythag, those 9 runs don't quite make a difference, but when you look at the fact that 7 of the 9 wins have been by either 2 or 1 runs, those 9 runs look like a lot. 
 
So, is the excellent bullpen performance actually something of a cause for concern? Is it realistic to think Taz, Koji, Capuano, and Miller will continue their runs? One of Koji, Taz, and Cap have to give up some runs at SOME point... 

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Capuano has been a revelation. I have more confidence in him than either Breslow or Miller right now.

 

[WenZink]

Capuano has been a revelation. I have more confidence in him than either Breslow or Miller right now.

Capuano could be a victim of his own success.  He was signed as starter depth, and the Sox hoped he could be useful as a long-reliever until the need for a 6th starter arose.  But, so far, he's proven to be too valuable in relief.  13 scoreless innings is a small sample, of course, but so far there's very little difference vs RHB and LHB. 
 
I'm assuming he signed a 1 year deal in the hopes of upping his value as a starter for this winter's FA, but he could become the next Darren Oliver and extend his career into his 40's as an effective, lefty middle reliever vs hitters from both sides of the plate.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Miller is looking more like the pre injury Miller from 2013, which is essentially one of the most unhittable relievers in the game. The addition of him with Cap has been amazing.

And they are all throwing strikes at an insane rate. Love that bullpen.

 

[pokey_reese]

Last place in the AL East?  Oh, wait...
 
The real concern is that being so good encourages Farrell to overuse them in an effort to win games (which makes sense), but given the struggles of several of the starters, we are leaning on them for a lot of innings early on.  If Clay and Felix can't start getting past the 5th inning, it's going to be hard to not ride Capuano way too hard.  Unless one of Badenhop/Mujica/Breslow turns it on, in which case everything is perfect.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I know that Workman is working toward being starter depth, but with Rubby pitching lights out, does that make him a better candidate to return to the bullpen in the bigs and end the Badenhop experiment? 
 
Or, put another way, how much rope do Badenhop and Mujica get? 
 
Both are WAY outside pretty well established career norms in WHIP, H/9, SO/9, etc., so they likely get a good amount of rope, I guess. 

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I know that Workman is working toward being starter depth, but with Rubby pitching lights out, does that make him a better candidate to return to the bullpen in the bigs and end the Badenhop experiment? 
 
Or, put another way, how much rope do Badenhop and Mujica get? 
 
Both are WAY outside pretty well established career norms in WHIP, H/9, SO/9, etc., so they likely get a good amount of rope, I guess. 

Badenhop has a 68% groundball rate and 13.6% line drive rate with a BABIP of .364.  That's really difficult to do.
 
He's pitched really well.

 

[pokey_reese]

Badenhop has a 68% groundball rate and 13.6% line drive rate with a BABIP of .364.  That's really difficult to do.
 
He's pitched really well.

He has also got 5 BB/6 K, in that time, which is why his xFIP is still 4.08, compared to a FIP of 4.26 and an ERA of 4.85, so let's not say that he has pitched really well.  He has done a good job of getting grounders, and has had some bad luck, but some of it is his fault.  Not putting runners on with walks and getting swings and misses are skills a pitcher does control.

 

[wolfe_boston]

Last place in the AL East?  Oh, wait...
 
The real concern is that being so good encourages Farrell to overuse them in an effort to win games (which makes sense), but given the struggles of several of the starters, we are leaning on them for a lot of innings early on.  If Clay and Felix can't start getting past the 5th inning, it's going to be hard to not ride Capuano way too hard.  Unless one of Badenhop/Mujica/Breslow turns it on, in which case everything is perfect.

They haven't had the lead often so their Japanese 8th and 9th inning guys haven't pitched that much.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

It's pretty encouraging for Taz and Koji to both get a rough outing past them and still win the game.

The Blue Jays have been accused of stealing signs before, though. It does make you wonder if they were keying in on fastballs.
 
Edit: And now all of a sudden the Jays are the first team to rough up Miller? 

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The team's early strength is starting to become the heel this thread suspected might happen:
 
Bullpen ERA has dropped to 9th overall, and 3rd in the AL. Today marks the bullpen's 7th loss, which isn't terrible, but is very middle of the pack. Mujica seems like an abject disaster, and while Badenhop has righted the ship, if Taz, Miller, Cap, and Uehara aren't as lights out as the season began, this could really keep the team from getting out of the doldrums. 
 
Losing 2 of 3 to the twins? Horrible.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

There were days not so very long ago we would've willingly murdered entire countries to have a bullpen that was 3rd in the AL in ERA. I wonder what Rudy Seanez is up to these days?
 
What you're saying is valid, but for every regression you could expect with those four (and I really don't see Taz, Koji, or Miller falling much sans injury,) you might also expect Mujica to righten the ship, Breslow to continue looking like he's ironed it out, or one of the Pawtucket guys (be it Webster, De La Rosa, Workman, Wilson, etc) to come up and contribute some solid innings. I really don't think it's going to be a problem in the grand scheme of things.
 
Losing two games to the Twins sucked, but they were one-run walkoff losses. Not exactly the worst-case scenario.

 

[TFisNEXT]

There were days not so very long ago we would've willingly murdered entire countries to have a bullpen that was 3rd in the AL in ERA. I wonder what Rudy Seanez is up to these days?
 
What you're saying is valid, but for every regression you could expect with those four (and I really don't see Taz, Koji, or Miller falling much sans injury,) you might also expect Mujica to righten the ship, Breslow to continue looking like he's ironed it out, or one of the Pawtucket guys (be it Webster, De La Rosa, Workman, Wilson, etc) to come up and contribute some solid innings. I really don't think it's going to be a problem in the grand scheme of things.
 
Losing two games to the Twins sucked, but they were one-run walkoff losses. Not exactly the worst-case scenario.

I would add too that some regressions in the bullpen should be at least somewhat offset by positive regression in the starting rotation. Particularly Buchholz. He won't be this bad all season. Doubront seems to have started to turn things around already. So in the sense of "where would this team be without the bullpen", they should get a little more help from the starters going forward.