RedOctober3829 said:
My question to you is this: if you aren't spending on Lester, who are you adding to the rotation? Another FA or plugging in a kid? If you think the 2015 team can be competitive, then not keeping Lester or signing a big FA starter will keep this team from being good.
It's a valid question. My point was that you can't count on Lester as part of "the core." Whether or not Lester is a good FA signing is another issue. However, I don't think automatically signing Lester is a good idea. (It may be a good idea, I'm just saying we don't quite yet know.)
First off, "keeping Lester" looks like it's basically going to equal "signing a big FA starter." If Lester wants "fair value" or is willing to take a discount, all that follows is moot.
Secondly, as you point out, part of the signing depends on whether or not the 2015 team will be competitive. Here's the link to the Cots contracts page
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Ah4PW47PiAi-dGhxT2g1OG8zZXR3NVZPaUVBRHpzS3c&output=html
We have
78mil committed to:
Postion players: Napoli, Ortiz, Pedroia, Victorino.
SP: Lackey, Buchholz.
RP: Mujica, Breslow.
(Basically this sucks. In 2015, there are a lot of question marks attached to this block of players - and it's almost half the budget.)
We control the following players subject to Arb (not part of the 78 mil):
Postion players: Carp, Herrera, Nava.
SP: Doubront.
RP: De La Rosa.
(Again a ton of question marks - but at least we're not committed to contracts, and any 2015 expense would be tied to them showing legitimate worth this year.)
We control the following players, pre-arb:
Postion players: Bradley, Boegarts, Middlebrooks.
SP: Workman.
RP: grabbag - Wilson?
(Again question marks - with the caveat that question marks are expected.)
So basically that gives us:
c: 0
1b: Napoli (Carp)
2b: Pedroia
ss: Boegarts
3b: Middlebrooks
lf: Nava
cf: Bradley
rf: Victorino
sp: Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, Workman
rp: Mujica, Breslow, De La Rosa
***
I'm not sure how much the arb players will be worth, or if the team will renegotiate with Lackey for an extension. However, looking at that lineup and that rotation raises legitimate questions as to just who will be productive in 2015 - or if they'll be competitive in the aggregate. I can see them being competitive. I can also see them completely sucking. Either way, it looks like they'll have to take risks on players and/or hope that prospects can jump to the majors. (Betts/pitching prospects.)
I don't think it's a given that Lester is a "final piece" of the puzzle for 2015, and so an overpay probably isn't warranted on that basis. In 2016, we have few commitments, but that just makes the issue trickier. Pay market rate/top dollar for Lester now, or for someone else (preferably younger than Lester) this off-season or next off-season for the 2016 squad?
The problem is that we have a lot of "potential," but it's hard to predict.