What to realistically expect from JG

[BaseballJones]

Now that Brady has decided not to pursue the case any further, and he will be out the first four games, we can talk more decidedly about what to expect from JG and the Patriots the opening month of the season.

Very small sample size, but here are JG's career regular season numbers:

20-31 (64.5%), 188 yds, 6.1 ypa, 1 td, 0 int, 91.9 rating

Some highlights from his rookie year here.

How do you expect the Patriots to approach these four games? Just same as they would if they had Brady? Or will it be different? He clearly has more mobility than Brady. Might they utilize that more? Will he basically be a "game manager", or will they just give him the keys to the car and let him rip?

What do you think we can expect from him those first four games?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Realistically, we have absolutely no way of knowing. No way to tell. The KC game was garbage time when he finally got in. As the presumptive starter for the first quarter of the season, there's just no telling. I assume he'll hand off more and throw less than Brady would, maybe scramble a bit more. But that's as far as I'm comfortable in saying.

 

[DJnVa]

Throw less, but throw more to guys out of the backfield. I know the Pats passing game is timing based, but at least there's not a lot of long down the field throws.

Throwing to guys with a huge catch radius like Gronk and Bennett and to guys that run really good routes like Edelman can only help.

 

[Pandemonium67]

I think they'll do with JG what they'd have done with TB: create a game plan according to what the defense gives them. I don't think they'll run anymore than they would have otherwise (well, maybe a tiiiny bit). Nor will they use JG's running ability in the form of planned runs, though they'll make sure he knows he has the freedom to take off when necessary.

JG and TB will be driving virtually the same car, with modifications each week depending on the opposition.

 

[Saints Rest]

Belichick's philosophy has always been "Next Man Up" aka "Do Your Job." I expect that the offense will look remarkably similar to what we've come to expect with Brady. Lots of timing routes to JE and DA, lots of Gronk (now, hopefully, with the added Bennett option). Lots of play action. Wheel routes to Lewis or White. Crossing routes over the middle.

I do expect that they will leverage JG's feet a bit more -- probably more planned rollouts, etc.

But the bottom line is that there are 20+ other offensive players who need to know that they don't have to do one thing for 4 games and then reinvent the wheel in game 5; there has to be a decent amount of similarity from JG in Week 4 to TB in Week 5 for the rest of the offense.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Agree with Saints, Next Man Up, Do Your Job, etc. That being said, BB is all about just winning football games. With the defense expected to be good and the plethora of passing targets, I foresee lots of low-risk, low-reward throws like curls and outs if JG can make them consistently (passes out of the backfield too). The Pats should use JG's legs as a weapon, but more for rollouts than designated runs to keep him healthy.

 

[loshjott]

Also wonder who the back up QB will be weeks 1-4. Will they pick up someone with some experience?

 

[ifmanis5]

Please stay healthy. It's a long way down to Brissett.

 

[bankshot1]

We keep on hearing that BB puts guys in the position to succeed by asking them to do what they can do. So do not put a young QB with modest game experience too far out on the risk curve. Unless he develops very quickly we'll likley see conservative game plans, short passing game, a few keep them honest deep patterns, and a running game (more than Brady relied on) but a game plan to minimize risk, taking advantage of specific opposition weaknesses, while letting the D make his life easier with turnovers/good field position.

 

[C4CRVT]

What's the status of Deion Lewis?

If I were JG, I'd be kind of psyched to introduce the league to the twin towers of destruction: Gronk and the Black Unicorn. Throw in a healthy Lewis and Hogan along side Edelman and the best coach in the business? Fugeddaboutit.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

Please stay healthy. It's a long way down to Brissett.

JG should be fine with the weapons the Pats have...the problem will be, as it is with so many young QBs, health. Without the skill and experience to move in the pocket, position himself properly, and try to do too much, I fear him going down early and having to rely on a third string QB.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Brady has to be part of the 53 man during his suspension, right?

If so, they have to consider pickup up a vet and carrying 4 QBs on the roster even though it's inefficient. Otherwise, as others have pointed out, Brissett is a play away, and that's not ideal, either

 

[tims4wins]

Brady has to be part of the 53 man during his suspension, right?

If so, they have to consider pickup up a vet and carrying 4 QBs on the roster even though it's inefficient. Otherwise, as others have pointed out, Brissett is a play away, and that's not ideal, either

No, suspended players do not count toward the roster

 

[troparra]

FWIW, looking at Brady's first four starts in 2001:

IND @NE, W 44-13: Brady 13-23, 168 yds 0 TD, 0 INT, sacked once
Pats rushing - 39 carries 177 yds, 3 TD
Pats D had 4 turnovers (3 int, 1 fumble)

@MIA, L 30-10: Brady 12-24, 86 yds, 0TD, 0 INT, fumbled twice (both lost, one returned 15 yds for TD), sacked 4x
Pats rushing - 23 carries, 80 yds, 1 TD
Pats D had 1 turnover (INT)
Pats lost 3 fumbles

SD @NE, W 29-26: Brady 33-54, 364 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, fumbled twice (both recovered by NE), sacked once
Pats rushing - 24 carries, 29 yards, 1 TD
Pats D had 1 turnover (fumble)
Pats lost 1 fumble

@IND, W 38-17: Brady 16-20, 3 TD, 0 INT, sacked 0 times
Pats rushing - 30 carries, 123 yds, 1 TD
Pats D had 2 turnovers (fumbles)

Brady seemed to be in pretty good form by game 3 (fumbles notwithstanding)

edit: added rushing TDs

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Also wonder who the back up QB will be weeks 1-4. Will they pick up someone with some experience?

Wouldn't surprise me if Matt Flynn or Ryan Lindley say "hello"

 

[RedOctober3829]

Wouldn't surprise me if Matt Flynn or Ryan Lindley say "hello"

Sign Fitzpatrick just to spite the Jets!

 

[NortheasternPJ]

Brady seemed to be in pretty good form by game 3 (fumbles notwithstanding)

The plus side is that Brady had limited reps and was the 3rd / 4th QB on the depth chart and drafted as a nothing prospect. Also Bill had only been here 2 years and was just getting his legs. Jimmy G has been the #2 has been the #2 for 3 preseasons (now) but the downside he's not Tom Brady.

 

[Zososoxfan]

FWIW, looking at Brady's first four starts in 2001:

[snip]

edit: added rushing TDs

I think this is instructive, but would adjust the attempts numbers up a bit to compensate for the modern NFL (i.e. more passing) and the fact that this receiver corps is bonkers. something like 25-30 attempts a game sounds right, maybe higher if BB is feeling confident in JG or the passing game is just that much farther ahead of the running game.

 

[Seels]

Their schedule is pretty easy in that time frame. I think that Arizona game is a probable loss even with Brady, but the other three are all favorable matchups.

I think 2-2 is likely and 3-1 is possible. Even if they go 1-3 the season schedule seems pretty soft. Might end up being a blessing in disguise as the top of the AFC is pretty weak.

 

[Stitch01]

Most NFL quarterbacks are bad, so I expect Jimmy G will most likely be bad. Its a talented roster, if they're healthy they'll be competitive. If they get offensive injuries early they'll be in the shitter. I'd sign up for 1-3 with a division win right now and for Jimmy G to be something like a Sam Bradford level QB, but obviously hope for better.

 

[RedOctober3829]

AFC East first 4 games
Miami has at Seattle, at NE, Cleveland and a Thursday game at Cincy.

Buffalo has at Ravens, home Thursday Jets, Arizona, and at Patriots.

Jets have Cincy, at Bills Thursday, at KC, and Seattle.

It's realistic to think that 2-2 would be good enough for a 1st place tie.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

No, suspended players do not count toward the roster

Thanks for the correction. So it will be 3 QBs, then, which is still one more than what they've usually carried. It will be interesting to see what vet is brought in

 

[Valek123]

Watch Brissett win the job coming out of camp... That would be totally BB.

 

[Captaincoop]

Did someone really say they'd sign up for 1-3? I know Brady is really good, but he's not good for a 3 or 4 win difference over a 4 game period.

 

[luckiestman]

Did someone really say they'd sign up for 1-3? I know Brady is really good, but he's not good for a 3 or 4 win difference over a 4 game period.

When Testaverde got hurt to start 1999, the Jets started 1-6. They finished 8-8 with Ray Lucas as the QB. Pats have the advantage of knowing Brady will be out but if Kenny G plays like a dog he can kill your team.

 

[SumnerH]

Did someone really say they'd sign up for 1-3? I know Brady is really good, but he's not good for a 3 or 4 win difference over a 4 game period.

3-1 to 1-3 isn't a 3-win difference (and obviously not a 4 win difference), 2007 notwithstanding. Over the past 4 years (in each of which the Pats went 12-4), you could basically pencil the Pats and Brady in for 3-1 every 4 games, which'd be a 2-win swing.

2-2 is more likely, but that's not totally unreasonable given that you're not handing the reins to a proven QB but rather an untested starter who's been riding the pine for a while.

 

[Captaincoop]

If you are willing to sign up for 1-3, presumably that's because you think there is a significant risk of 0-4. There's really not. 2-2 and 3-1 are your likely outcomes. If the team goes 0-4 or 1-3, it's because there's some non-Brady problem that no one is forseeing right now.

 

[amarshal2]

When Testaverde got hurt to start 1999, the Jets started 1-6. They finished 8-8 with Ray Lucas as the QB. Pats have the advantage of knowing Brady will be out but if Kenny G plays like a dog he can kill your team.

Saxophone players are known to make for excellent NFL QBs. It's the finger dexterity and sense of timing.

 

[Norm loves Vera]

Isn't the right question whether or not the O line will gel and give JG 3 seconds to throw?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

If you are willing to sign up for 1-3, presumably that's because you think there is a significant risk of 0-4. There's really not. 2-2 and 3-1 are your likely outcomes. If the team goes 0-4 or 1-3, it's because there's some non-Brady problem that no one is forseeing right now.

Agreed. I'm pretty bullish on our chances overall and think 2-2 or 3-1 are the most likely scenarios.

Most NFL backup QBs are bad but we have a talented team, very good coaching, and JG is a 2nd round pick with several years of exposure to the league who BB seems to like. I don't expect him to be great but I doubt he'll be Ryan Lindley bad.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

When Testaverde got hurt to start 1999, the Jets started 1-6. They finished 8-8 with Ray Lucas as the QB. Pats have the advantage of knowing Brady will be out but if Kenny G plays like a dog he can kill your team.

OT but I was at that game and holy shit did the entire stadium seem to know exactly how much they were screwed when Vinny went down. It was fantastic. That was my first time at the Meadowlands, which was also the day after the Sox had won an ugly 11-10 game at the Toilet (Portugal vs Irabu; Sox hit 4 HRs (Trot off the pole, Nomar, OLeary and Husky); first time at the Toilet for me as well and the Sox swept that series). Great memories.

 

[luckiestman]

OT but I was at that game and holy shit did the entire stadium seem to know exactly how much they were screwed when Vinny went down. It was fantastic. That was my first time at the Meadowlands, which was also the day after the Sox had won an ugly 11-10 game at the Toilet (Portugal vs Irabu; Sox hit 4 HRs (Trot off the pole, Nomar, OLeary and Husky); first time at the Toilet for me as well and the Sox swept that series). Great memories.

Next time, start your post with a trigger warning

 

[BuellMiller]

Don't forget that the friday was the Pedro game at the Toilet. (sorry, I mean, Trigger warning).

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Don't forget that the friday was the Pedro game at the Toilet. (sorry, I mean, Trigger warning).

Yup, remember listening to that in my dorm room with my roommate (who was a huge Yankees/Jets fan). His dad had gotten us tickets to the Jets game and as we listened to the game Friday we decided to head up earlier and try for tickets to the Saturday game. Ended up about fifteen rows behind home plate, half way to Sox dugout. It was before things were really brutal with either rival and I was decked out in sox gear and then my Bledsoe shirt on Sunday. He warned me not to wear either but other than 1918 and some good natured ribbing in the parking lot on Sunday I was very glad I did.

 

[dbn]

I have no idea what to expect out of JG, but I do know what I expect out of the rest of the offense and the defense. I'd wager that they lose @ARI, then go 2-1 in the next three. The last time they started out 2-2, it ended okay.

Who knows, maybe he puts up crazy stats and the crazies out there start wondering the crazy "should he remain the starter?"-ness?

 

[Tony C]

JG should be fine with the weapons the Pats have...the problem will be, as it is with so many young QBs, health. Without the skill and experience to move in the pocket, position himself properly, and try to do too much, I fear him going down early and having to rely on a third string QB.

This is where I'm at: a number of posters have mentioned him scrambling more and undoubtedly he has that in spades over Brady. But I'd really minimize it. I think it's a reasonable hope that JG will be decent (and as a fan I'm really curious) and that running will be part of what might make him so. But assuming (on the basis of little) that he is decent, I really don't want to see the 3rd stringers who look to be quite awful, so I hope they put reins on JG's running and order him to just to go down whenever prudent.

 

[phenweigh]

Is a reasonable expectation the first four games of the 2008 season started by Matt Cassel? It was Matt's first season of starting after 3 seasons of riding the Pats bench, compared to Jimmy's 2 seasons of being the backup. JG has the advantage of pre-season prep as the expected starter. I think the expectations of the 2008 and 2017 Patriots are reasonably similar. The schedules are comparable in that both seasons have/had 2 games against division opponents, 1 game in conference, and 1 game out of conference. The biggest question would be; Is Garoppolo as good as Cassel? TBD for sure, but it doesn't seem like a stretch projection.

The Pats went 3-1.

 

[Captaincoop]

People always forget how the team performed in 2008. It looks worse than it was because somehow they didn't make the playoffs at 11-5....but that team went 11-4 with Matt Cassell at QB (and one of those losses was the Miami wildcat debacle...which would have happened with or without Brady, IMHO). I think they can handle 4 games this year without Brady.

 

[RedOctober3829]

People always forget how the team performed in 2008. It looks worse than it was because somehow they didn't make the playoffs at 11-5....but that team went 11-4 with Matt Cassell at QB. I think they can handle 4 games this year without Brady.

They went 11-4 without Brady and only had Randy Moss and Wes Welker as good targets. Their RBs were Sammy Morris, Maroney, and Heath Evans. Remember that explosive TE combo of Ben Watson and David Thomas? Jimmy G has much better weapons at his disposal than Cassel ever did.

 

[pappymojo]

Randy Moss and Wes Welker were pretty fantastic targets. I think you can argue that Cassel had better targets than Jimmy G will have for his four games this year, especially as we can not be sure of the health for Edelman, Amendola or Lewis.

 

[heavyde050]

Just to temper the comparisons to the 2008 team. That team went 11-4 with MC as a starter but he was taking over arguably one of the best teams ever. The team he led to 11-4 was a miracle catch away from going down as the greatest team in NFL history.

 

[Captaincoop]

Unless you think that 2008 team was going undefeated again, at most Cassel "cost" the team 3 games over an entire season. People seem to fear that Jimmy Grips will cost them that many games in a month. Feels unreasonable to me, but who knows.

Also, the defense was aging rapidly in 2008...I'm not sure that was a 15-1 or 14-2 team even with Brady. They got absolutely blasted in several of the losses.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

I think if Lewis is healthy there will likely be a heavy dose of the running game. Jimmy will probably have to challenge teams deep at some point in the game to keep defenses from just loading up the box to stop the quick hitters to the TE's, backs and receivers.

The defense and/or ST will likely have to contribute a score. 3-1 is an achievable goal. 0-4 would be the only surprising outcome.

 

[tims4wins]

Where does this 11-4 keep coming from? They went 11-5. They beat KC with Cassel playing 3+ quarters. They went 10-5 with Cassel starting. But for all intents and purposes it was 11-5 since there was no score in the KC game when Brady went down.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Randy Moss and Wes Welker were pretty fantastic targets. I think you can argue that Cassel had better targets than Jimmy G will have for his four games this year, especially as we can not be sure of the health for Edelman, Amendola or Lewis.

Edelman, Amendola, Hogan, and whoever else is the 4th vs. Moss, Welker, Gaffney, and Washington is a win to 2008. But the much, much better TE and RB group this year tips the scales for me. Kevin Faulk was good in 2008 but the rest stunk. I'm interested to see how the OL works out this year because the OL in 2008 was good.

 

[pappymojo]

Sammy Morris had 727 rushing yards and 161 receiving yards in 2008 (7 total touchdowns and 1 fumble).
Kevin Faulk had 507 rushing yard and 486 receiving yards (6 touchdowns).

Last year, Blount had 703 rushing yards and 43 receiving yards (7 total touchdowns and 1 fumble). Bolden had 207 rushing yards and 180 receiving yards (2 total touchdowns). Lewis had 234 rushing yards and 388 receiving yards (4 touchdowns and 2 fumbles).

I understand that we are all optimistic and hopeful for Dion Lewis to become a great back over the course of a full season, but he hasn't done that yet in his career.

 

[Super Nomario]

The 2008 Pats finishing 11-5 was like finishing 9-7 in a typical year. That team played a joke schedule. The AFC East was nothing special, no team went better than 8-8 in the AFC West, and no team went better than 9-7 in the NFC West. The Pats played six games against playoff teams and went 2-4 that season.

 

[Captaincoop]

In these opening four games, they play the Bills and Dolphins, and the Texans at home. Arizona on the road is tough with or without Brady. It's pretty reasonable to expect 2-2, maybe 3-1.

 

[Stitch01]

The big difference between 2008 and 2016 for this discussion, IMO, is the offensive line.

The Pats offense started getting a lot better in 2008 once Neal came back from IR and replaced Billy Yates, who was noticeably awful. Mankins, Koppen, and Light started all 16 games, that was an excellent, excellent offensive line over the second half of the year and much easier to plug an inexperienced quarterback into. They could also run the ball effectively even with journeyman RBs.

The offense has still been really effective the last two years, but has relied much more heavily on Brady to cover up trash offensive lines. Yeah, they got beat to shit by injuries at the end of last year and wont be sieve we saw the last six weeks of the season, but even healthy the whole interior is full of question marks and the tackles are good, not great, with the potential for age related regression from Vollmer and limited depth. In '14 with similar question marks the team obviously found an OL that worked well enough not to kill the offense (although Id argue they still weren't good), but it took the first part of the season to find a group that worked.

When I say Id sign up for 1-3 with a division win, its just because I think that the Pats, with Brady back in the fold at 1-3 with a division win, probably do their usual improvement throughout the year where they are a tougher out in December than September (last year was an exception, but pretty clearly due to injuries) and Brady finds a way to paper over OL weakness and such that they still nearly always make the playoffs barring a real injury apocalypse like we saw towards the end of last year or Brady finally losing to father time. At 0-4, there's just almost no margin of error. and a raw inexperienced QB behind what has been a bad offensive line for two years makes me worried about a complete shitshow start. Probably too conservative, but that's the lens Im looking through.

Expected wins in the first four weeks with Vegas lines is pretty close to 2-2 which seems right.

 

[mauf]

The big difference between 2008 and 2016 for this discussion, IMO, is the offensive line.

QFT. The O-line has improved in-season the past two years but was pretty rough through the first four games of each season.

I'm with the Vegas consensus too. Losing Brady takes the Arizona game from a coin flip to a 30/70 proposition, and it knocks the odds of winning in each of the other three games down from 80-85 percent to maybe 65-70 percent. 2-2 is the most likely outcome, and that will be plenty to retain the Pats' usual position as prohibitive AFCE favorites.