Michael Conforto accepted his $18m player option & is off the market.
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1721575839287140787
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1721575839287140787
What does the Red Sox outfield look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
@JM3 - since I think you have a really good grasp on the minor league system, what are your thoughts on Rafaela having the arm to play RF in Fenway. I know that the write up on SP has it listed as a "plus arm; quick release" which to me makes me think he'd be capable of playing out there, but I figured I'd ask someone that I'm certain has watched more of Rafaela in the minors than I have.
I really don't think of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela as a bad OF, especially if that means the bulk of the resources (money and prospects) can be used to address starting pitching, but again, I'll defer to someone that has watched more of Rafaela.
I really don't think of Yoshida, Duran, Rafaela as a bad OF, especially if that means the bulk of the resources (money and prospects) can be used to address starting pitching, but again, I'll defer to someone that has watched more of Rafaela.
I'm sure he'd be fine in RF defensively. Overall that's a below average defensive outfield, though, & I'm not sure he's ready to produce at the level of a corner OF offensively. But yeah, his arm shouldn't be an issue.
I'll add a name that hasn't been mentioned much: Manuel Margot. His defensive metrics have declined a bit as he's aged, but he has a long history of stellar defense at all three outfield positions, and has been solid (109 wRC+) against lefties his whole career. The Rays owe him $10 million in 2024 with a $2 million buyout in 2025, so he wouldn't cost anything of value in a trade; absorbing his full salary might even bring back a lottery ticket.
Given the quality outfield prospects we have coming up, I really like the idea of a one year commitment rather than the 2-4 years it might take to sign RHH outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Adam Duvall, Harrison Bader, Michael Taylor, or Garrett Cooper. Margot has experience functioning as a 4th outfielder and could slide into that role if Rafaela is ready to take over full time this summer.
Given the quality outfield prospects we have coming up, I really like the idea of a one year commitment rather than the 2-4 years it might take to sign RHH outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Adam Duvall, Harrison Bader, Michael Taylor, or Garrett Cooper. Margot has experience functioning as a 4th outfielder and could slide into that role if Rafaela is ready to take over full time this summer.
Definitely agree on Robert. Solves both the RH power bat and good defense in the outfield. Could even move him to right if we keep Rafaela. I assume a package would have to start with Mayer, one of Bleis/Yorke/Anthony, Kutter/Houck, and more. Would a package like that get it done and would it be worth it?
Hard pass on Robert- last year was the first time he's played in more than 100 games in a season (and he ended last year early with a knee injury). If we're looking to make a trade, let's go for Chas McCormick (although, with Baker retiring, McCormick may no longer be undervalued by the Houston manager).
I'd be interested in Chas, but it depends on the cost. BTV (yeah, I know) has Chas at a surplus value of 48. Roman Anthony, for comparison, is 41.
So, would you want McCormick for Anthony (41), Verdugo (5) and a low level guy? Or for Bleis (29) and Yorke (17)? I don't think I'd be interested in anything like that. Maybe that 2nd deal but I don't know if Houston, who's trying to win now, would want to do that unless they moved those pieces for something they can use on the MLB roster. They've got Altuve at 2B and Bleis is years from the bigs.
If the cost is much lower than those deals, sure, go for it. I'm just not sure the Sox have what Houston needs (outside of maybe Verdugo to possibly replace Brantley) unless they get creative and bring in a 3rd team.
It would seem like only Rafaela would have a good chance at being plus defensively, and even then he probably won’t be as good as Verdugo was this year. Personally, I feel pretty depressed by the idea of having to watch Duran in center and Yoshida in LF again.
I’d imagine that at very least, this might lead to Abreu starting in LF and Yoshida DHing, though it might even be better for Abreu to shift to center and Duran to go left. Don’t have a good sense in of Abreu’s defensive capabilities in center but I really don’t want to see Duran there ever again.
In an Athletic article about DH possibilities, Breslow indicated that the plan for Yoshida is to play mostly LF, not DH, and they anticipate him to be better defensively next year:
https://theathletic.com/5082009/2023/11/27/red-sox-designated-hitter-free-agents/
https://theathletic.com/5082009/2023/11/27/red-sox-designated-hitter-free-agents/
Sounds like the plan is for a lot of offseason work for Yoshida.
Scratch any dreams of a Mike Trout trade off the list.
Perry Minasian says Mike Trout will not be traded (mlb.com)
Perry Minasian says Mike Trout will not be traded (mlb.com)
Ehh I'm fine with this. I love the prospect of simply seeing Trout in a Red Sox uniform, but he's played 237 games in the last three seasons. And even going back to 2017-19, he didn't play more than 140 games in any of those seasons. He should be DHing at this point to keep his bat in the lineup.
If the Sox moved Verdugo in order to make space for Gurriel, that's a good move, especially if any of the pitchers they got back turn out to be something.
Gurriel's a 3 bWAR player (not exactly prime Mays but solid enough) and is a RH bat, which they need lineup-wise.
So Verdugo for Gurriel + three pitching prospects isn't a bad overall move, should they, in fact, sign Gurriel.
Gurriel's a 3 bWAR player (not exactly prime Mays but solid enough) and is a RH bat, which they need lineup-wise.
So Verdugo for Gurriel + three pitching prospects isn't a bad overall move, should they, in fact, sign Gurriel.
This tweet vastly overrates Gurriel’s defense. First off, Baseball Savant only has him as +1 for LF in 2023’ and has him far below water for the rest of his career: -20. And to be clear, he’s not an outfielder but a left fielder, as that appears to be the only position he’s ever played in the OF. His infield defensive numbers are also pretty bad, so he’d only be an option there in a very part-time capacity.
Obviously the fact that he’s a RH hitter is nice, but he’s not a Verdugo replacement in RF. He’s a left fielder who is probably good enough in the field (maybe) to push Yoshida to DH, but even this is unlikely to be a significant fielding upgrade.
I’d rather pool the Verdugo savings into a Yamamoto contract and roll with the guys we have. The less contact, the less our defense gets exposed.
The Fielding Bible 2023 numbers came out recently, and they suggest that Lourdes Gurriel had a phenomenal year defensively. He was +14 defensive runs saved in 778 innings in 2023. That ranks 7th among 333 outfielders in cumulative DRS, and better on a per-game level than some ahead of him. The DRS leader in 2023 is Varsho with +29 in 1,280 innings.
Verdugo is +9 in 1,170 innings, which is ranked 13th, six spots below Gurriel.
I'm thinking we should try to upgrade Refnsyder's roster spot and bring in a better hitter.
If Rafaela is on the roster, he makes Ref less useful, as he is RH and can cover all 3 OF positions better and is faster and has more power. If the team think he's ready to play 3 out of every 4 days or so, then he will get plenty of action to adjust to the majors and give us loads of cover all over the field.
I like Ref a lot and he's cheap and gets on base against LHP, but his power cratered last year. Maybe he was playing injured and that cost him power? But I think with Duran, Yoshida, Abreu, O'Neil, and Rafaela all able to play OF, we don't need him anymore and could use his roster spot for a better hitter.
Potential depth chart
C Wong, McGuire
1B Casas LHH, Dalbec, new Ref?
2B New starter like Drury, or Rafaela, Valdez, Reyes
3B Devers LHH, Dalbec, new Ref?
SS Story, Reyes, Rafaela
RF O'Neill, Abreu, Rafaela
LF Duran/Rafaela/Yoshida
CF Rafaela, Duran, Abreu
DH Yoshida/Devers/New Ref?
Bench
C McGuire
OF/IF Rafela
UT Reyes
New Ref
(Dalbec would be in AAA or traded if we bring in a new RH bat, along with Ref being moved on. If we add a new 2B like Drury, Valdez would be in AAA.)
So there should be a space for a new hitter to upgrade Refsnyder.
So who could that new guy be?
Maybe an old guy?
Turner coming back could be a a really good fit. He could play some DH, back up Casas and Raffy (not play anymore second base please) and get like 400 PAs, which would be plenty at his advanced age.
Duvall could also be an option, if he is willing and able to play some first base, as he did earlier his career. He only had a .303 OBP last year but he was a real RH power threat with a 119 OPS+ compared to Refsnyder's 87, and he doesn't have a big platoon split. If he comes back that would let Rafaela play more IF and give us a proven power hitter for the OF if any of the other OFs aren't ready or slump badly.
The problem with an OF in this role is that if they can't back up 3B, then we'd end up with Reyes or someone playing there too much. Of course Refsnyder doesn't play third either.
Giovanni Urshela is coming off a bad injury and isn't a power hitter, but if he's healthy again he'd be a really useful part-timer: covers 3B/IB with a Steamer projection of .274/.323/.410.
As much as I like Ref, I think his spot is one that could be upgraded on, now with the versatile Rafaela in the picture.
If Rafaela is on the roster, he makes Ref less useful, as he is RH and can cover all 3 OF positions better and is faster and has more power. If the team think he's ready to play 3 out of every 4 days or so, then he will get plenty of action to adjust to the majors and give us loads of cover all over the field.
I like Ref a lot and he's cheap and gets on base against LHP, but his power cratered last year. Maybe he was playing injured and that cost him power? But I think with Duran, Yoshida, Abreu, O'Neil, and Rafaela all able to play OF, we don't need him anymore and could use his roster spot for a better hitter.
Potential depth chart
C Wong, McGuire
1B Casas LHH, Dalbec, new Ref?
2B New starter like Drury, or Rafaela, Valdez, Reyes
3B Devers LHH, Dalbec, new Ref?
SS Story, Reyes, Rafaela
RF O'Neill, Abreu, Rafaela
LF Duran/Rafaela/Yoshida
CF Rafaela, Duran, Abreu
DH Yoshida/Devers/New Ref?
Bench
C McGuire
OF/IF Rafela
UT Reyes
New Ref
(Dalbec would be in AAA or traded if we bring in a new RH bat, along with Ref being moved on. If we add a new 2B like Drury, Valdez would be in AAA.)
So there should be a space for a new hitter to upgrade Refsnyder.
So who could that new guy be?
Maybe an old guy?
Turner coming back could be a a really good fit. He could play some DH, back up Casas and Raffy (not play anymore second base please) and get like 400 PAs, which would be plenty at his advanced age.
Duvall could also be an option, if he is willing and able to play some first base, as he did earlier his career. He only had a .303 OBP last year but he was a real RH power threat with a 119 OPS+ compared to Refsnyder's 87, and he doesn't have a big platoon split. If he comes back that would let Rafaela play more IF and give us a proven power hitter for the OF if any of the other OFs aren't ready or slump badly.
The problem with an OF in this role is that if they can't back up 3B, then we'd end up with Reyes or someone playing there too much. Of course Refsnyder doesn't play third either.
Giovanni Urshela is coming off a bad injury and isn't a power hitter, but if he's healthy again he'd be a really useful part-timer: covers 3B/IB with a Steamer projection of .274/.323/.410.
As much as I like Ref, I think his spot is one that could be upgraded on, now with the versatile Rafaela in the picture.
Completely agree on Refsnyder. Isn’t Rhys Hoskins the ideal fit? Would love to give him a three year deal to get at bats at 1b/dh, but no idea what he would be looking for. Then add Drury at 2b and you’d have added a lot of potential power. Drury can back up 3b as well. They seem like the two ideal adds to me.
He pretty much is, though he was here last year with Verdugo in the O'Neil role, and we still have 3 other LHH OFs, 2 of whom aren't proven at all and could need to be platooned. But as I said we now have Rafaela to cover that.
This is interesting. Refsnyder is great at what he does, and is a sneakily decent outfielder for a dismally bad defensive infield prospect almost a decade ago. He obviously makes the most sense paired with a LHH outfielder, but not Yoshida and I think we’d want Duran to take a legit shot at full-time duty this year. An Abreu/Refsnyder platoon makes a lot of sense, but then there’s O’Neill. He should ideally be a full-time player too. You want to give him a chance to thrive here, even though he’s a free agent next year.
Maybe that’s solved by DH-ing Yoshida full-time, but I don’t think they’re ready for that. Maybe it means Mitch Garver is our primary DH and catches occasionally. Either way, Refsnyder doesn’t have much trade value, but he shouldn’t be DFA’d. He’d make sense in that extremely left-handed outfield in Arizona.
Maybe that’s solved by DH-ing Yoshida full-time, but I don’t think they’re ready for that. Maybe it means Mitch Garver is our primary DH and catches occasionally. Either way, Refsnyder doesn’t have much trade value, but he shouldn’t be DFA’d. He’d make sense in that extremely left-handed outfield in Arizona.