What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
I thought Bloom's approach to pitching FA was generally sound for where the team has been. The short deals have generally been favorable in a window where we weren't really ready to compete, and the Paxton signing was a crafty hedge against baseball not being played due to the labor dispute. But identifying then missing on Eflin really hurt, as did our lack of a workhorse when so many arms went down at once in two concurrent seasons.
That's what sucks about this entire situation. With the exception of ERod, all of the marquee FA's are waiting for Ohtani to announce where he's going. It has put everything to a stop. Then, all teams targeting any of these guys are going to be paying way more than they were expecting. I'm trying to think positively in that the Sox have all this cash, but that statement of not wanting to force a signing doesn't exude confidence.
I think guys like Snell, Monty will probably get well above the current market value once the Ohtani shoe drops.
I think guys like Snell, Monty will probably get well above the current market value once the Ohtani shoe drops.
If you want to qualify it as an outlier amongst the NYC/LA/Boston axis, then yes, an outlier. But then none of those other teams were in the same boat the 2019 Red Sox were (barren high minors, terrible developmental infrastructure, and payroll problems).
They didn’t take anything to an extreme. In the Bloom era they had four first round picks and four second round picks. And one of those was used (unwisely, I think) on Jud Fabian. Those were the only rounds they weren’t selecting pitchers, and those were the picks where they needed more security in terms of outcomes. Of those eight picks Fabian never signed and Cutter Coffey is looking like a washout. On the other Roman Anthony, a 19 year old ‘22 draftee, has reached AA and is a top 50 prospect. So the approach has not served them badly.
Trying to be creative here, but if the Sox miss on YY is there a match with the Mariners who are trying to shed payroll, have starters galore, but need outfielders? Sox get Luis Castillo (I think he's roughly $23M a year), Ms get Duran, Wilyer, Houck and maybe a prospect? Sox could but Rafaela in CF and get a bat for right on the FA market. Ms still have Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and Woo.
Yeah, in 12 picks in the first 3 rounds they took one SP. Dalton Rogers in 2022 who was pretty bad in his first taste of A+ ball this year, but my bigger gripe is with the starting rotation at the MLB level.
They've taken the same "just throw a bunch of stuff against the wall season after season" approach there too. That is the bigger one that I think will lead to horrible win and loss records more often than not, and is capped at winning a playoff round or two. Though this is where I think the "taking it to the extreme" is more prevalent. I literally cannot think of a single even middle of the market move for SPs that has been made in 4 years. I hope that was Bloom and not "organizational" because if it was "organizational", I don't think the Sox do anything but win a round or two in the playoffs on occasion until a) FSG sells the team or b) the process changes.
Hopefully Breslow means Option B has been chosen.
I honestly have no idea how trade value works, but I have to think 4 years of Castillo with a vested option for '28 is going to cost an interested party much more than that.
This may be futile but all of the Montgomery discussion seemed to move to the offseason rumors thread. To recap, almost everyone seems OK with him to some extent but:
- He might be too expensive for the type of performance he offers;
- He might not be great after the first few years and move into albatross territory; and
- He doesn't really move the needle by himself.
This last point is worth chewing on. I think he'd combine OK with Imanaga, a higher risk/reward guy, as two options that, combined, don't destroy your future flexibility.
- He might be too expensive for the type of performance he offers;
- He might not be great after the first few years and move into albatross territory; and
- He doesn't really move the needle by himself.
This last point is worth chewing on. I think he'd combine OK with Imanaga, a higher risk/reward guy, as two options that, combined, don't destroy your future flexibility.
The crazy money that YY is going to get is beginning to scare me. What about this?
Trade for Logan Gilbert. I know it would take a lot. Any idea how much?
Trade for Burnes and plan on extending him or resigning him.
Sign Woodruff now to take over for Sale next year.
I'd feel good about a staff of Burnes, Sale/Woodruff, Gilbert, Bello, and Crawford.
Trade for Logan Gilbert. I know it would take a lot. Any idea how much?
Trade for Burnes and plan on extending him or resigning him.
Sign Woodruff now to take over for Sale next year.
I'd feel good about a staff of Burnes, Sale/Woodruff, Gilbert, Bello, and Crawford.
It should be noted, for the record, that the Fabian pick is a non-entity from the point of view of analyzing draft pick allocation because they effectively got a do-over in the following draft (and knowing they would get that do-over if he didn't sign may have partially motivated the use of the pick). That is, they would have had one fewer 1st/2nd round picks had they picked someone else who signed.
Right, hence the two second rounders in 2022. But Cutter Coffey was the do-over for Fabian, so the pick was, apparently, destined to produce nothing.
There has been a lot of discussion about a possible Gilbert trade in this post, go back a couple pages.
And given that that 2nd round involved getting Anthony, who hit (way) better than Fabian at the same levels this year despite being three years younger, and the Fabian comp pick helped us go over slot for him, I wouldn't change a damn thing.
You don’t need a rotation full of top 20 pitchers to win (otherwise most of MLB would be out of the playoff hunt from day one). You can be perfectly competitive with a starting staff that eats innings adequately and a good bullpen.
Right, the Roman Empire was my case in point for why I have zero problems with the approach of using 1st and 2nd round picks on position players. Anthony, Mayer, Teel, those are the fruits of that approach.
There's also no reason not to (over)spend on at least one FA starter. They're available, there are several good ones and we have cash. FA should be our plan A, then for the second starter FA or a trade is just fine. But we do need two good ones from somewhere.
Trading for two top SPs is probably not a good idea, as it would cost too many of the top prospects. Two FAs, or one FA and one by trade, is a far better solution. They have enough depth now to trade some, but not most or all.
We lost our own 2nd rounder when we signed Story. Roman was the ERod comp pick. & Coffey was only $60k under slot so he really wasn't the difference between Roman or no Roman. Might not have been able to get Brooks Brannon, though.
Regardless, the general point that it all worked out fine is true.
Oh I’m not arguing with that, I’ve been beating the Yoshi Yamamoto drum for a long time now. I’m just pointing out to the people desperate for Boston to empty the minor league system for two cost controlled front of the rotation starters that you don’t need 3-4 of those guys to compete.
I think the Sox will need to overpay if for no other reasons than there appears to be a disdain amo g players for Sox ownership, a recent string of losing seasons, and no pitcher enjoys pitching with a horrendous defense behind him. My strategy is set the market with an overpay for Montgomery and blow the lit off for the Japanese pitcher. If the Sox want Lugo as a swing or 5th starter go for it. I think they could trade the final year of a subsidized Chris Sale to an NL team for a good second baseman. A rotation of The Japanese pitcher, sorry I can't remember how to spell his name, Montgomery, Bello, Crawford, Houck Lugo with one of the last three as a swing man should get the job done. We would need the young outfielders to take a step forward. If we had a Maldonado/ Wong combo at catcher that should improve our defense. I also toy with the idea of moving Cedanne to second base using Raffy as a DH and and signing Chapman to improve our defense at 3rd base. I wonder if there is a market for Yoshi.
What's your evidence of the "disdain among players for Sox ownership"?
And please, learn how to spell Yoshinobu Yamamoto's name. Or are you referring to Shota Imanaga when you type "Japanese pitcher"?
Also, who is Yoshi?
With a rotation like that, a good bullpen, and a good offense the Sox compete for a playoff spot. As bad as they were last year, they aren’t far off from being a competitive team.
I like Burnes and would love to see him as a Red Sox. My biggest concern is that he hits free agency at the end of the season. If some sort of extend and trade could be worked out great, but that's far from the norm these days. With everything else falling just right this off season I still can't see the Sox as being close enought to GFIN mode to move the prospects that it may take to land Burnes, only to have to fill that slot again in a year. For the record, I do believe that the Sox will be best served to sign a FA pitcher and trade for another arm, but I think you need at least 3 seasons of control from that deal if you can get it.
I would love to get Burnes but here's my thing: say the Sox trade for him and fork over some prospects, which will weaken the farm. Thing is, he's going to get a huge pay day after next season, anyway, so I'm thinking we can instead use that money towards Yamamoto, who is younger. Assuming Burnes has a good season, there's no way he gets less than Yamamoto in free agency. That said, one point I will acknowledge is that Burnes is a much more proven commodity than Yama, who is obviously skilled and highly touted.
Can you acquire a good pitcher with multiple years of control remaining without giving up at least one of Anthony or Mayer? I’m skeptical.
I think I would put Teel in the same category, personally, just because he has unicorn catcher written all over him.
And Mayer is probably in his own tier, as available but only in a deal for a true ace. I wouldn't be shopping him, if that makes sense.
Literally any combination of anyone else should be used if they need to.
Agreed 100%. We're also pretty weak at the catcher position. Wong is alright but I see him as more of a backup catcher and definitely not a long-term solution. And outside of Teel, there isn't much catcher depth in the minors.
During the season I was pretty blown away at how ready Teel was for the jump up to professional baseball, and how well he seemed to adjust as a hitter after being called up. Add in his awesome defense behind the plate and he's damn near untouchable.
Ideally I'd really prefer to hold onto Mayer/Anthony/Teel but out of those 3 I'd be most willing to give up Mayer. And even then it would have to be an amazing trade for a cost controlled elite starter.
Sasaki still isn't coming over until 2027 unless something drastically changes, today's news is meaningless on its own.
This was my reaction as well. I think Teel is as untradeable as Anthony...maybe, just maybe, even more so.
Most people still have Mayer as the #1 prospect in the Red Sox system & the vast majority of the rest have Mayer 2nd. Don't know why he would be more available than Roman or Teel.
Maybe if Story was playing better & we had a 2B...
Besides and injury, why would Mayer be available if it wasn’t a true ace? I’d consider dealing him and a few other chips if it netted us someone like George Kirby, but that’s about it.
Gilbert would be intriguing too, but who knows what the M’s are doing.
Gilbert would be intriguing too, but who knows what the M’s are doing.
Yeah, my point is that he wouldn't be more available just because of a change in public perception. He didn't really even have a down year... he just had an injured year.
He had a .996 OPS before his shoulder injury.
On mlbn, they almost never mention the Sox w/r/t Yamamoto, which wouldn't bother me, except that lately things like that seem somewhat predictive.
Just to pull this out in isolation. . .drafting and developing is sort of a purity test for some people, perhaps hearkening back to some kind of mythic origin story for a player in an organization.
Not frittering away your draft picks is important - it's a major pipeline for acquiring talent. But acquiring a player via IFA, trading in the minors, Rule 5, or as a minor league FA, or a short-track record ML FA counts just as much.