It seems like Porcello was largely done by his own choice though. 1-7 with a 5.52 ERA for the Mets in the COVID year, but solid peripherals (0.8 HR, 2.3 BB, 8.2 K) and a 3.33 FIP. Kind of weird that he was done after that.
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
They have near unlimited funds, don't seem to care about the luxury tax, and just got rid of 2 high priced pitchers. They'll be in on every high priced pitcher.
Yeah, I think Yamamoto or bust (I was about to print t shirts) is a high risk path and there need to be Plan BCDs etc.
Good news is Bloom has shown willingness to be aggressive in FA (Masataka (edit I’m an idiot) and Jansen and Eovaldi offers most recently) as well as waiting out the market (Story for example). I’m hoping we’re done kicking the can down the road and he can legitimately get something done with the rotation. If he can selectively open the prospect bank up to solve the rotation problem then I’m fine with that.
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He's been great out of the bullpen, but you've seen his numbers in the AAA rotation, haven't you?
The International League is playing like the PCL usually plays this year, for instance Randy Vasquez has a 4.76 ERA in 75 innings for AAA and a 1.89 in 19 innings for NY after tonight.
From the offensive side, some examples: Dalbec has a .989 OPS and Florial has a .977, but in both cases, that's not enough for them to see almost any MLB time. Jake Bauers was one of the guys used ahead of Florial and he has actually been very solid offensively for NY with a .786 OPS. But in AAA this year, he had an absurd 1.382 OPS in 97 PAs, 11 HRs in 78 ABs, .359/.485/.897.
Before today Vasquez had a 1.17 ERA & 6.05 xFIP. Interesting juxtaposition.
I think Murphy's most useful role is probably multi inning reliever.
Interesting, I didn't know that!
I'm just happy if a guy doesn't get shelled in his first few outings and he has something to build on, Vasquez was rushed into being an option this year with injuries and all the guys Cashman traded ahead of him last deadline. Vasquez is definitely still a work in progress, Brito too, but both were pretty deep on the depth chart at the start of spring training (8 and 9, maybe?).
Sure, but guys get better. Despite what some people here seem to think the Sox major league staff has a pretty good recent track record at improving pitchers. He's up to 11 appearances now, most of them in the 50-70 pitch range and nearly all in fairly close games, that isn't too far from a starters workload, especially these days.
It's always nice when you can be on the good side of the variance. We ran really well on Brandon Walter, too, & Murphy has been pitching well, but not 2.94 ERA good.
Prior to today Vasquez had 5.8 k/9, 4.1 bb/9 & has allowed a lot of fly balls with only a 5% hr/fb rate, which xFIP would predict to regress (& I guess it did once today).
It's also Dustin Pedroia's birthday today.
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1692145914977112110
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1692145914977112110
I have from a very good sourse that Yamamoto is asking a LOT of questions about coming to the States. I tired to dig deeper but wanting to keep the friendship was a tad more important. Speculation is a contract in the ballpark of 150-200mil His last outing wasn't terrific by his standards but Japanese batters have a knack for fouling off pitches.
Since he's just turned 25, and has previously publicly spoken of his desire to make the move, I think the default assumption in both leagues is that he will be posted this offseason. At this point I think it would be more surprising if he stayed.
The contract stuff is interesting though, would love to hear more about that if you're able to glean/share without prying too deeply.
Count me in the Yamamoto and Paxton camp and going into the season with 7+ guys with varying histories of health issues. I suspect Paxton would be a 2-3 year extension with most of the other comparable guys needing more years.
As for the offense, Turner has been great and I'm 100% on board with a 2 year extension or even mirroring his existing contract for 2024-25. If they were to simply bring everyone back the offense would be in good shape, but this is the opportunity to build a championship caliber team. That's where marginal upgrades on offense and substantial upgrades on defense are necessary. Rafaela as a super utility player very likely could be the answer to some of the defensive issues, but I think they definitely have to consider upgrades in the outfield and second base.
I'd really like to see them make a strong push for Ha-Seong Kim. He seemed to be a viable option in the offseason (there was a lot of Kim for Houck chatter on here). My understanding is that even though he won't have the service time, he'll be a free agent in 2026.
As for the offense, Turner has been great and I'm 100% on board with a 2 year extension or even mirroring his existing contract for 2024-25. If they were to simply bring everyone back the offense would be in good shape, but this is the opportunity to build a championship caliber team. That's where marginal upgrades on offense and substantial upgrades on defense are necessary. Rafaela as a super utility player very likely could be the answer to some of the defensive issues, but I think they definitely have to consider upgrades in the outfield and second base.
I'd really like to see them make a strong push for Ha-Seong Kim. He seemed to be a viable option in the offseason (there was a lot of Kim for Houck chatter on here). My understanding is that even though he won't have the service time, he'll be a free agent in 2026.
Yamamoto is a smarter move For Boston for many reasons as have been discussed on this board countless times. Are we talking ourselves not trying to get Ohtani OK? I think not. From a business standpoint we have no place for him. Enough of that.....
I believe every team checked in with Ohtani before he came over here just to do their due dilligance as a professional business.
Over beers last night near Tokyo Dome we (Japanese baseball fans) were talking about Ohtani's newest injury. I missed quite a few things but what I did catch was that Ohtani is loved by women here in Japan. Men don't seem to like him very much. "Baka" (stupid) was a word getting thrown around a lot. He seems like a nice enough fellow but I have grounds to base that on.
I believe every team checked in with Ohtani before he came over here just to do their due dilligance as a professional business.
Over beers last night near Tokyo Dome we (Japanese baseball fans) were talking about Ohtani's newest injury. I missed quite a few things but what I did catch was that Ohtani is loved by women here in Japan. Men don't seem to like him very much. "Baka" (stupid) was a word getting thrown around a lot. He seems like a nice enough fellow but I have grounds to base that on.
Well I got called “baka” once for going down the wrong side of the stairs at the JR so is it a high bar? Curious what makes him foolish in some fans’ eyes.
My daughter had adopted an occasional (self described) ‘Anime girl’ personality and I realize has been using that word a lot lately. Thanks for translating
With Ohtani 99% not pitching in 2024, the Yamamoto sweepstakes will just get more crazy, right? Is a 200M contract before posting fees on the table?
Hm maybe with opt outs. He would stand to benefit from a second bite at the apple if he’s as good as he sounds.
hahahaha There's not a lot of words to explain certain things even though the vocab is larger than English. I'm going to a game here today and if the opportunity arrises I'll do some asking around. Getting to your question, I've seen fights over it.....some physical so.....case by case.
I think he brings some added value due to the positional versatility and clubhouse factor. Good for the many young guys to have a guy like that around
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Sorry, let me put Ed Hand's list in text form so people don't have to click through:
1. Julio Urias
2. Blake Snell
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4. Aaron Nola
5. Sonny Gray
6. Clayton Kershaw
7. Jordan Montgomery
8. Eduardo Rodriguez
9. Lucas Giolito
10. Michael Lorenzon
11. Jack Flaherty
12. James Paxton
13. Kenta Maeda
14. Luis Severino
15. Kyle Gibson
1. Julio Urias
2. Blake Snell
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
4. Aaron Nola
5. Sonny Gray
6. Clayton Kershaw
7. Jordan Montgomery
8. Eduardo Rodriguez
9. Lucas Giolito
10. Michael Lorenzon
11. Jack Flaherty
12. James Paxton
13. Kenta Maeda
14. Luis Severino
15. Kyle Gibson
Yamamoto has to be the #1 target by a long shot for this team. They need a stud at the top of the rotation badly. Pair him with Bello and go from there.
I was concerned that they only throw once a week in Japan, but Kodai Senga looks like he's made every start, only failed to go 5 innings 3 times, and doesn't seem to be getting tired (3.16 ERA in August).
Based on that non-random sample of 1, I'm all in.
Yeah, he's definitely my #1 & I definitely disagree with a lot of the list, but thought it made for an interesting conversation point.
Everything falls into place much better with Yamamoto in the fold. All of a sudden, you'd have 2 mid-20s guys on the upswing with several years of team control anchoring your rotation along with multiple good 4th/5th starter options. And you'd no longer be riding or dying with Sale but would have the upside of a #2, if things actually go decently for once with him.
Yamamoto is 5-foot-10, 177 lbs. How many starting pitchers that size are still effective at 30 in today's game? Stroman, Sonny Gray off the top of my head, but I can't think of anyone else.
Can't say I'm not interested in Yamamoto and I'm confident in their scouting, but I'm a little wary. Lincecum (5-foot-11, 170) was basically done at 28.
There was this one other guy. Extremely effective at age 30, done as a regular, healthy contributor at age 33 (or 34 if you want to be charitable). Of course, that was 20 years ago, so probably doesn't qualify as "today's game." Edit to add: Tim Hudson was listed at 6'1" 177lbs, so he might be a comp. He was effective into his late 30s fairly recently. That might be a best-case scenario.
I'll never say anything bad about Pedro, but I think he was sitting 90-92 by his age-30 season.
Yamamoto just turned 25, two years younger than the next youngest SP (Julio Urias), so it's not an incredible concern. I've seen some folks estimate that his contract will exceed Tanaka's 7/$155M deal and push closer to $200M. Could get a little iffy on the back end, but still probably worth it. There are no 25 year old ace-level starters in a typical free agent market.
Yamamoto isn't a huge strikeout pitcher, but doesn't walk many and somehow doesn't allow any homers. Is he an extreme groundball pitcher? Investing in a really good second baseman to go along with him might be required. Urias seems okay out there, but isn't exactly the second coming of Dustin Pedroia.
In 2002, really? I honestly don't remember so I'm not saying you're wrong, but I feel like even in 2004 it was more like 92-93...
EDIT: just watched the game 3 WS highlights and didn't see him hit higher than 92, so I'm guessing you're right
I feel like I watched almost every Pedro start in a Red Sox uniform.....and in 2002, he could still dial it up to 95-96 when he wanted, but he was living a tick lower than that. By 2004, he was mostly 91-92 though again, occasionally could dial it up higher, but even less frequently than '02.In 2002, really? I honestly don't remember so I'm not saying you're wrong, but I feel like even in 2004 it was more like 92-93...
EDIT: just watched the game 3 WS highlights and didn't see him hit higher than 92, so I'm guessing you're right
I know we're not hating on Urias but I also feel like Urias career would be a pretty good outcome for Yorke? Like I'm not nearly as confident as you and nighthob that Yorke is even going to make it as a big-leaguer.
YMMV but Yorke is still striking out 25% of the time and Urias has been an above average hitter at a position where that's tough to find.
Yorke isn't the only option though, which I think was more nighthob's point. There are presently nine 2B or SS on SoxProspects top 20 right now. They're all at various stages of development (ETAs ranging from 2024 to 2027) but what that allows for is to not have to count on any one specific player to come through the pipeline. Even if one falters, another could make a leap.
And he isn’t going anywhere. People need to give up that dream. He’s cost controlled for a few more years and teams don’t trade 5 WAR players that are under team control. Boston already has Trevor Story, who’s a great defensive IF, and have Mayer coming in ‘25. They literally only need to get one year out of Urias, even if you hate him. He’s fine for a year.
I always forget that my phone’s autocorrect hates non-English names and that I need to go back and fix all the spellings after.
Yeah, I was just using the names as placeholders...although Yorke has been raking lately & he's still only 21. In August he's slashing .325/.409/.538 (.947 OPS) in 101 PAs (18.8% k, 9.9% bb). Brainer Bonaci is really the only other guy I expect might be ready by '25, but Yoeilin Cespedes is probably the most exciting. He doesn't turn 18 for another couple weeks, though, so going to have to wait a bit on that one.
I don’t know about JM3, but I suspect that he’s probably of the same opinion. Yorke isn’t the long term answer at 2B, he’s literally (assuming that Story isn’t the pick to be the 2B of the near future) one of those guys that you plug in until another option comes along. Duran, for example, is producing now, in his cost controlled years, but I have doubts that you want that deal past his cost controlled years. And thus is Yorke.
In modern terms the ideal is to have a minor league system that produces lots of average/above average players that can be cycled through allowing you to pick positions to spend for stars (mostly pitching in all likelihood). Yorke’s utility, such as it exists, is that he might be able to give you 3-4 years of averagish production while you wait to see what comes through your system for middle infielders. And when that next option comes along, you trade Yorke to someone that needs a 2B that can fill in. Because in terms of future stars in their system, I’d list Mayer, Anthony, and Teel as the guys with potential to be cornerstone players. Guys that you want to give the Devers treatment to (i.e. extend them early).