What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Spotrac did projected salaries & destinations for their top 10 free agents. Here are the SPs (note, at least one of these is crazy):

1. Ohtani: 12/$552m to Dodgers
2. Snell: 5/$115m to Orioles
3. Nola: 6/$140m to Diamondbacks
7. Kershaw: 1/$23m + incentives to Dodgers
8. Yamamoto: 5/$85m to Mets
9. S. Gray: 3/$66m to Twins
10. Montgomery: 6/$110m to Rangers

https://www.spotrac.com/news/predictions-for-spotracs-top-10-mlb-free-agents-2035/

It would be awesome if these articles would make some kind of a case for why/how they arrive at the predictions they do. I mean, obviously the teams are wild-ass guesses (though Kershaw staying with the Dodgers feels pretty safe), and it can be fun to talk about the possibilities. But the numbers for some of them don't make a lot of sense, as has been pointed out. It'd be nice to know if it's just one random author's guesses or they have an algorithm or insider knowledge or some other methodology.

 

[JM3]

Mark Feinsand has a write-up on his top 25 free agents with 3 likely destinations for each. The only ones the Red Sox made the top 3 on were Yamamoto (#2) & Giolito (#19)

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-free-agent-rankings-2023-2024

 

[jbupstate]

Great to see the Yankees are in the mix for everyone.

 

[JM3]

It would be awesome if these articles would make some kind of a case for why/how they arrive at the predictions they do. I mean, obviously the teams are wild-ass guesses (though Kershaw staying with the Dodgers feels pretty safe), and it can be fun to talk about the possibilities. But the numbers for some of them don't make a lot of sense, as has been pointed out. It'd be nice to know if it's just one random author's guesses or they have an algorithm or insider knowledge or some other methodology.

Spotrac does something called a Market Value. They say they explain it, but the link doesn't work for me.

https://www.spotrac.com/blog/how-mlb-market-values-are-determined/

But based on their Market Value pages:

(here's Aaron Nola's for reference: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/aaron-nola-17684/market-value/)

It looks like they find some comps, average those comps, then deviate from them in correlation to how the player whose value they are determining differs from those comps. For pitchers they appear to use GS, IP, k/9, bb/9, ERA, WHIP, FIP & WAR, & then make 1 more adjustment. They come up with 6/$147m for Nola, so. not sure why they project he will sign for less than that.

 

[JM3]

BR came out with something today where they use that Spotrac Market Value & then come up with their own predictions. Here are the SPs on that list...

Lucas Giolito (MV 4/$48m) - Prediction 3/$60m with 2 club options that could be worth 5/$100m to Rangers

Jordan Montgomery (MV 6/$110.4m) - Prediction 5/$105m to Cubs

Aaron Nola (MV 6/$147.1m) - Prediction 5/$140m to Yankees

Shohei Ohtani (MV N/A) - Prediction 10/$520m to Dodgers

Eduardo Rodriguez (MV 5/$102.5m) - Prediction 4/$76m with a $20m team option ($4m buyout) to Orioles

Blake Snell (MV 5/$117.5m) - Prediction 5/$115m to Giants

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (MV N/A) - Prediction 7/$210m to Mets

www.bleacherreport.com/articles/10094937-projecting-the-price-tags-for-top-mlb-free-agents-of-2023-2024-class

 

[jon abbey]

Zero chance NY signs Nola IMO, doubt they’ll be in on any of the SPs except Yamamoto and maybe Montgomery, but likely outbid on both.

 

[simplicio]

Those BR numbers also feel soft. Rodon got 6/162 last year after posting his first full healthy season since 2016.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Spotrac does something called a Market Value. They say they explain it, but the link doesn't work for me.

https://www.spotrac.com/blog/how-mlb-market-values-are-determined/

But based on their Market Value pages:

(here's Aaron Nola's for reference: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/aaron-nola-17684/market-value/)

It looks like they find some comps, average those comps, then deviate from them in correlation to how the player whose value they are determining differs from those comps. For pitchers they appear to use GS, IP, k/9, bb/9, ERA, WHIP, FIP & WAR, & then make 1 more adjustment. They come up with 6/$147m for Nola, so. not sure why they project he will sign for less than that.

Exactly my point. Without a rationale, there's not a whole lot of substance to the article. It's compounded when, as you point out, the site the article is published on does have a method for estimating these things and the conclusions using that method don't match the article. Clearly the author of the article was just spitballing on his own.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (MV N/A) - Prediction 7/$210m to Mets
www.bleacherreport.com/articles/10094937-projecting-the-price-tags-for-top-mlb-free-agents-of-2023-2024-class

If the Mets win the Yamamoto sweepstakes after outspending all of baseball by $75 million on the way to a 75-win season, we need to start drug-testing owners.

 

[jon abbey]

If the Mets win the Yamamoto sweepstakes after outspending all of baseball by $75 million on the way to a 75-win season, we need to start drug-testing owners.

Maybe drug-testing the other 29 owners, who have all chosen to ignore the massive capital appreciation of their team's values and instead worried about being profitable on a year-to-year basis (extremely shortsighted IMO, no shareholders to answer to except kind of in ATL's case).

What Cohen did by trading veterans along with cash at this year's deadline, getting back a massive prospect haul, should legitimately make some other 'rich' teams deeply reconsider the way they've been doing things.

 

[JM3]

Yoshinobu Yamamoto has brought home his 3rd straight Sawamura Award (NPB’s Cy Young).

2021:
26 GS - 193.2 IP - 1.39 ERA - 9.6 K/9 - 1.9 BB/9 - 5.8 H/9 - 0.3 HR/9

2022:
26 GS - 193 IP - 1.68 ERA - 9.6 K/9 - 2.0 BB/9 - 6.4 H/9 - 0.3 HR/9

2023:
24 GS - 171 IP - 1.16 ERA - 9.3 K/9 - 1.5 BB/9 - 6.3 H/9 - 0.1 HR/9

Has also thrown a no-hitter in each of the last two seasons. Craig.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1719095402236952840

 

[Jimbodandy]

Maybe drug-testing the other 29 owners, who have all chosen to ignore the massive capital appreciation of their team's values and instead worried about being profitable on a year-to-year basis (extremely shortsighted IMO, no shareholders to answer to except kind of in ATL's case).

What Cohen did by trading veterans along with cash at this year's deadline, getting back a massive prospect haul, should legitimately make some other 'rich' teams deeply reconsider the way they've been doing things.

Say what you want about the Mets, but spending >350M and missing the playoffs is at least an ethos. You do raise a good point about willingness to pivot.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

View: https://twitter.com/NPB_Reddit/status/1719150412358644130?s=20

Yokohama DeNA Baystars pitcher Shota Imanaga is expected to head to the US for training and to sign a contract with sports agency Octagon in the next few days.

We've discussed Imanaga a few times in this thread but it looks like he may be one of the first Japanese guys to post after the window opens tomorrow (Nov 1st). He turned 30 in September and isn't quite as heralded as Senga and certainly not as much as Yamamoto. I'd hope he could be had on a 3/39 type of deal but who knows. 4/60 wouldn't be a disaster.

 

[chrisfont9]

View: https://twitter.com/NPB_Reddit/status/1719150412358644130?s=20




We've discussed Imanaga a few times in this thread but it looks like he may be one of the first Japanese guys to post after the window opens tomorrow (Nov 1st). He turned 30 in September and isn't quite as heralded as Senga and certainly not as much as Yamamoto. I'd hope he could be had on a 3/39 type of deal but who knows. 4/60 wouldn't be a disaster.

His bb/9 and k/9 rates are terrific. The latter may be hard to replicate in MLB but at least he throws strikes.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

From Imanaga's Wikipedia page:

Imanaga is a 5 ft 10 in, 190 pounds left-handed pitcher.[8] He has a low-90s fastball (tops out at 96 mph[9]),[10] changeup, curveball and slider in his repertoire.[11] He isn't an overpowering hurler but finds success with his command and changeup.[12]

MLB Trade Rumors:

Imanaga is a veteran in Japan, having just turned 30 years old on September 1. Over eight seasons, he has tossed 977 innings with a 3.18 earned run average while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 6.9%. He’s been ever better this year, with a 2.72 ERA over 122 1/3 innings, along with a 29.1% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate. He also pitched for Japan in the World Baseball Classic earlier this year, allowing two earned runs over six innings.

I like that he doesn't walk people. Hopefully that would translate.

Here at MLBTR, Imanaga has been featured on all four editions of our NPB Players To Watch series, coming in at #3 in the first edition but #2 on each subsequent update. As noted by MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski in the first of that series, Imanaga doesn’t have an overpowering fastball but finds success thanks to his command and gets strikeouts with his changeup, which is close to a splitter. He also has a cutter, a curveball and a slider. He signed with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement last offseason.

He's 30, so he would definitely be a step down from Yamamoto. But he seems like he has the potential to succeed here. If we don't outbid the whole world for Yamamoto, we will still need starting pitchers and Imanaga seems like a viable option.

A look at him from a Mets fan page:
https://metsmerizedonline.com/analyzing-npb-pitchers-transitioning-to-mlb-this-offseason/

Imanaga, who boasts a 3.18 career ERA, depends on a low-90s fastball that can reach up into the mid-90s and has received positive reviews for its shape. His go-to secondary pitches are his changeup and slider, both of which he demonstrates good command of and can consistently generate whiffs from. Imanaga’s impending free agency bears a striking resemblance to Senga’s, as both were on the older side upon being posted yet possess the stuff and experience that teams covet. He projects as a mid-rotation arm with an upside that will receive a multi-year deal with an AAV in the mid-teens.

Eno Sarris said he had the best Stuff+ in the WBC:
View: https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1638579529253011456

Final WBC Stuff+ leaders, minimum 28 pitches per appearance: 1) Shoto Imanaga 2) Yoshinobo Yamamoto 3) Jose De Leon 4) Julio Urias 5) Yu Darvish 6) Sandy Alcantara 7) Cristian Javier 8) Jose Urquidy 9) Shohei Ohtani 10) Luis Garcia 11) Roki Sasaki

Small sample, but it was against good competition.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

One more Japanese name to add to the list is RHP Naoyuki Uwasawa of the Nippon Ham Fighters. Turns 30 in February, has pitched to a 3.04 ERA/1.12 WHIP line over 480+ IP in the last three years. I don't really know much about his stuff but here's a vid:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zDdapemsXQ

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

One more Japanese name to add to the list is RHP Naoyuki Uwasawa of the Nippon Ham Fighters. Turns 30 in February, has pitched to a 3.04 ERA/1.12 WHIP line over 480+ IP in the last three years. I don't really know much about his stuff but here's a vid:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3zDdapemsXQ

He’s just a regular FA unlike Yamamoto who needs to be posted

 

[Tokyo Sox]

He’s just a regular FA unlike Yamamoto who needs to be posted

I don't think that's correct -- a couple different articles I've seen say he needs to be posted. This one in Japanese specifically says he doesn't have full international FA rights therefore needs to be posted, but that the team has already agreed.

 

[JM3]

Jim Bowden starting pitcher contract projections..

Yamamoto 7/$211m
Montgomery 5/$127m
Nola 5/$125m
Snell 5/$122m
ERod 5/$90m
Gray 3/$64m
Heaney 2/$25m
Hendricks 2/$25m
Guolito 2/$24m
Kershaw 1/$22m
Lugo 2/$20m

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1719393364309602359


I'll take the over on most of those.

 

[chawson]

And here are Tim Britton's, also at The Athletic this morning (with a decent methodology, as far as these things go).

Yamamoto - 7/$203 million
Nola - 6/$180
Snell - 5/$135
Montgomery - 5/$105
E. Rodriguez - 5/$80
Gray - 3/$72
Giolito - 4/$70
Imanaga - 4/$52
Flaherty - 3/$45
Wacha - 3/$36
Lugo - 2/$26
Clevinger - 2/$22
Mahle - 2/$20
Morton - 1/$16
Kershaw - 1/$15
Montas - 1/$13
Heaney - 1/$12.5
Lorenzen - 1/$11
Ryu - 1/$11
Lynn - 1/$10
Maeda - 1/$10
Gibson - 1/$10

Pretty significant gap between Bowden and Britton on Nola and Giolito especially.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

And here are Tim Britton's, also at The Athletic this morning (with a decent methodology, as far as these things go).

Yamamoto - 7/$203 million
Nola - 6/$180
Snell - 5/$135
Montgomery - 5/$105
E. Rodriguez - 5/$80
Gray - 3/$72
Giolito - 4/$70
Imanaga - 4/$52
Flaherty - 3/$45
Wacha - 3/$36
Lugo - 2/$26
Clevinger - 2/$22
Mahle - 2/$20
Morton - 1/$16
Kershaw - 1/$15
Montas - 1/$13
Heaney - 1/$12.5
Lorenzen - 1/$11
Ryu - 1/$11
Lynn - 1/$10
Maeda - 1/$10
Gibson - 1/$10

Pretty significant gap between Bowden and Britton on Nola and Giolito especially.

I wonder if pitchers like to gamble for another shot at FA like a lot of non-pitchers do? 7 years would take him to his age 34 season so I could imagine Yamamoto not getting any good deals at that point. Maybe after age 30 he could still be effective and healthy enough to turn another 7 year deal?
I'd be looking at offering a 5 year guaranteed and then player options for 3 more consecutive seasons at $160M and $20 each following season, so he's guaranteed $200M but could end up leaving after 5 years and make another 1/4 billion.

 

[nighthob]

I wonder if pitchers like to gamble for another shot at FA like a lot of non-pitchers do? 7 years would take him to his age 34 season so I could imagine Yamamoto not getting any good deals at that point. Maybe after age 30 he could still be effective and healthy enough to turn another 7 year deal?
I'd be looking at offering a 5 year guaranteed and then player options for 3 more consecutive seasons at $160M and $20 each following season, so he's guaranteed $200M but could end up leaving after 5 years and make another 1/4 billion.

You’re off by a year in his age. He just turned 25 two months ago. So he’d be a free agent again at age 32 if he signed a seven year deal.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

And here are Tim Britton's, also at The Athletic this morning (with a decent methodology, as far as these things go).

Yamamoto - 7/$203 million
Nola - 6/$180
Snell - 5/$135
Montgomery - 5/$105
E. Rodriguez - 5/$80
Gray - 3/$72
Giolito - 4/$70
Imanaga - 4/$52
Flaherty - 3/$45
Wacha - 3/$36
Lugo - 2/$26
Clevinger - 2/$22
Mahle - 2/$20
Morton - 1/$16
Kershaw - 1/$15
Montas - 1/$13
Heaney - 1/$12.5
Lorenzen - 1/$11
Ryu - 1/$11
Lynn - 1/$10
Maeda - 1/$10
Gibson - 1/$10

Pretty significant gap between Bowden and Britton on Nola and Giolito especially.

I'd be interested in Maeda on a short deal. Had TJS and missed 2022. After a slow start and some time on the IL to start the 2023 season, he had a good June-September, when he struck out 103 batters and posted a 3.36 ERA in 88 1/3 innings pitched.

However, I think it will take more than 1/$10.

 

[Benj4ever]

No way Yamamoto goes for 5/85 with all his suitors. And I would definitely beat the projected offer for Gray.

 

[moondog80]

I'm not sure I'd rather have Yamamoto at 7/203 than Gray at 3/72 and Eduadro at 5/80.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm not sure I'd rather have Yamamoto at 7/203 than Gray at 3/72 and Eduadro at 5/80.

Yamamoto is going to go for $225-$250 million. There are a bunch of major market teams interested in him and the hype around him is just as much or more than there was with Masahiro Tanaka.

 

[chrisfont9]

No way Yamamoto goes for 5/85 with all his suitors. And I would definitely beat the projected offer for Gray.

Gray... I dunno. He crapped out in 2017-18, which coincided with his only time spent in a major market (MFYs). Was there some alternate explanation of where his stuff went then that shouldn't concern us anymore?

I'm not sure I'd rather have Yamamoto at 7/203 than Gray at 3/72 and Eduadro at 5/80.

Gray is 33, Eddy is 30, Yoshinobu (do his friends call him Yoshi?) is 25. We spend so much time debating the value of short term starter contracts for older guys (implying if not screaming injury risk). This is a rare chance to get a younger foundational starter to build around -- not without risk, no pitcher is, but so far he's been healthy. And the Sox have money to burn. If you love Gray, get Yamamoto and Gray.

 

[jon abbey]

I'm going to start a new thread in a minute asking about these five SPs:

Nola
Snell
Montgomery
Gray
Rodriguez

And how many of those 5 people think will end up earning the contracts they are about to receive.

 

[jon abbey]

Gray... I dunno. He crapped out in 2017-18, which coincided with his only time spent in a major market (MFYs). Was there some alternate explanation of where his stuff went then that shouldn't concern us anymore?

He and Gary Sanchez really didn't seem to mesh well, like oil and water somehow.

 

[moondog80]

Gray... I dunno. He crapped out in 2017-18, which coincided with his only time spent in a major market (MFYs). Was there some alternate explanation of where his stuff went then that shouldn't concern us anymore?

Gray is 33, Eddy is 30, Yoshinobu (do his friends call him Yoshi?) is 25. We spend so much time debating the value of short term starter contracts for older guys (implying if not screaming injury risk). This is a rare chance to get a younger foundational starter to build around -- not without risk, no pitcher is, but so far he's been healthy. And the Sox have money to burn. If you love Gray, get Yamamoto and Gray.

I get it. I think that might be the right call. But with Gray + Eduardo, you're filling two spots instead of one, with guys who have actually pitched in MLB. I don't think it's a slam dunk decision.

 

[chrisfont9]

I get it. I think that might be the right call. But with Gray + Eduardo, you're filling two spots instead of one, with guys who have actually pitched in MLB. I don't think it's a slam dunk decision.

Yeah, it's somewhat philosophical. Eddy is steady (sorry) but I really want a true ace and hope that they swing for the fences to acquire one.

 

[EyeBob]

Don’t I recall that when Gray was with the MFY he suffered from anxiety? Due to (allegedly) pitching in such a pressure cooker media atmosphere? Am I wrong?

 

[chrisfont9]

Don’t I recall that when Gray was with the MFY he suffered from anxiety? Due to (allegedly) pitching in such a pressure cooker media atmosphere? Am I wrong?

I did a quick search and found nothing to that effect.

 

[jon abbey]

Don’t I recall that when Gray was with the MFY he suffered from anxiety? Due to (allegedly) pitching in such a pressure cooker media atmosphere? Am I wrong?

He had massive home/road splits, 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 and a 3.17 ERA on the road, I'm not sure if it was ever so clear why that was precisely but it definitely started to snowball on itself after a while.

 

[jon abbey]

Wow Gray has horrendous career numbers in both Yankee Stadium and Fenway:

NYY: 6.06 career ERA in 101 IP
BOS: 6.84 career ERA in 26.1 IP

Everywhere else combined: 3.23 ERA in 1443.2 IP

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Yeah, it's somewhat philosophical. Eddy is steady (sorry) but I really want a true ace and hope that they swing for the fences to acquire one.

It seems the NPB has improved enough the last 5-10 years that success there is likely in MLB too.
The workload is different and any signing team should figure out how to manage that increase to avoid injury and late season ollapse…. But again- he’s young and more likely to be abiotic absorb that increase.
He’s a perfect fit right now

 

[Sin Duda]

It seems the NPB has improved enough the last 5-10 years that success there is likely in MLB too.
The workload is different and any signing team should figure out how to manage that increase to avoid injury and late season ollapse…. But again- he’s young and more likely to be abiotic absorb that increase.
He’s a perfect fit right now

Remember, the ball is different too. No issue for a big guy like Ohtani, but Yamamoto is listed as 5'10", which means he might even be shorter. Short likely equals smaller hands.

 

[YTF]

Remember, the ball is different too. No issue for a big guy like Ohtani, but Yamamoto is listed as 5'10", which means he might even be shorter. Short likely equals smaller hands.

Serious question, I believe that there is some difference in the baseballs used by MLB and NPB. Is there a difference in circumference?

 

[JM3]

Serious question, I believe that there is some difference in the baseballs used by MLB and NPB. Is there a difference in circumference?

The official circumference on an MLB game ball should be between 9.00 to 9.25 inches. When I measured two random boxes of Rawlings ROMLB baseballs, they averaged around 9.15 inches in circumference.

Using the same measuring method, Mizuno baseballs used in the Nippon Professional Baseball league measured 8.875 inches (or 8 7/8″) in circumference.

https://99baseballs.com/equipment/guide-to-baseballs-used-in-japan/

 

[Jimbodandy]

https://99baseballs.com/equipment/guide-to-baseballs-used-in-japan/

That's fascinating.

I think that I remember something during the Matsuzaka courtship about the seams being easier to grab in Japan and tighter to the surface of the ball in MLB, but that could be old news now. Obviously that would hurt the breaking stuff transition to the states, also would affect 4-seam fastball "rise" and, well, basically almost everything.

 

[grepal]

Wow Gray has horrendous career numbers in both Yankee Stadium and Fenway:

NYY: 6.06 career ERA in 101 IP
BOS: 6.84 career ERA in 26.1 IP

Everywhere else combined: 3.23 ERA in 1443.2 IP

Of course those were usually elite offenses he pitched against. Still a huge red flag.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

That's fascinating.

I think that I remember something during the Matsuzaka courtship about the seams being easier to grab in Japan and tighter to the surface of the ball in MLB, but that could be old news now. Obviously that would hurt the breaking stuff transition to the states, also would affect 4-seam fastball "rise" and, well, basically almost everything.

Yeah the NPB ball is slightly smaller as mentioned but also way tackier and easier to grip, which may be a bigger issue, though which matters more probably differs pitcher to pitcher. A couple years ago when the MLB sticky stuff crackdown was happening, a few guys were advocating to changing the ball to the one they used in the 2020(1) Olympics, which was different still from the NPB ball, but similar in tackiness.

The MLB ball was used in the WBC, and a few of the Japanese pitchers were asked about it specifically in December and were just like, "I guess we'll just have to get used to it." They all trained with it for about 6 weeks before the tournament started.

 

[jon abbey]

Of course those were usually elite offenses he pitched against. Still a huge red flag.

Actually the bulk of the Yankee ones were for them, not against them.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The MLB ball was used in the WBC, and a few of the Japanese pitchers were asked about it specifically in December and were just like, "I guess we'll just have to get used to it." They all trained with it for about 6 weeks before the tournament started.

Was just wondering about the WBC. Seems like the difference was relatively negligible then

 

[JM3]

This stuff probably belongs more in a place like this than in the Breslow thread, but Breslow says today he values highly a pitcher's ability to have swing & miss stuff in the strike zone, which is a stat measured by Z-Contact %.

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1720114108966568238

Here are all the current Red Sox in that stat...

The Red Sox were 6th in swinging strike % at 12% this past year. The Twins were #1 in the league at 13% & the Cards were last at 8.2%. The 2 World Series teams were 10th (Rangers) & 22nd (Diamondbacks).

I guess what he's actually talking about is more like Z-Contact % which is the % of times a batter makes contact when swinging at a pitch inside the zone. The Red Sox were 7th in Z-Contact at 85.1%. The league leader was the Angels at 83.5% & the Rockies were last at 88.9%. The 2 World Series teams were 12th (Rangers) & 24th (Diamondbacks).

Of the players who are still around & pitched at least 20 innings this season...

1) Josh Winckowski 75%
2) Kenley Jansen 80.9%
3) Chris Sale 81.1%
4) Joe Jacques 81.8%
5) Chris Martin 82.9%
6) Kutter Crawford 83.6%
7) Tanner Houck 84.3%
8) Nick Pivetta 86%
9) Chris Murphy 86.8%
10) Brayan Bello 87%
11) Mauricio Llovera 89.9%
12) John Schreiber 90%
13) Brennan Bernardino 90.9%
14) Brandon Walter 91%

Paxton was 84.8%, Kluber was 87.3%.

& I'll do some of the free agents (& potential free agents) in order here...might give us an idea of who might be more or less on Breslow's radar.

Blake Snell 80.8%
Lance Lynn 81.5%
Shohei Ohtani 82.7%
Hyun Jin Ryu 84%
Eduardo Rodriguez 84.3%
Jack Flaherty 84.3%
Clayton Kershaw 84.4%
Jordan Montgomery 84.9%
Lucas Gioloto 85%
Frankie Montas 85% ('22)
Andrew Heaney 85%
Kenta Maeda 85.2%
Tyler Mahle 85.4%
Charlie Morton 85.5%
Michael Wacha 86%
Michael Lorenzen 86.4%
Aaron Nola 87.3%
Kyle Gibson 87.8%
Mike Clevinger 87.9%
Seth Lugo 88.3%
Sonny Gray 89%

 

[RS2004foreever]

Jim Bowden starting pitcher contract projections..

Yamamoto 7/$211m
Montgomery 5/$127m
Nola 5/$125m
Snell 5/$122m
ERod 5/$90m
Gray 3/$64m
Heaney 2/$25m
Hendricks 2/$25m
Guolito 2/$24m
Kershaw 1/$22m
Lugo 2/$20m

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1719393364309602359


I'll take the over on most of those.

Give me Montgomery and Snell.
Give us Montgomery, Snell, Bello, and two of Houck/Sale/Crawford/Pivetta.

 

[grepal]

If the Sox are serious they need to set the market on two of the very top fa pitchers, not wait and grab the last one left. That's how we ended up with Trevor Story.

 

[JM3]

I just realized I missed Whitlock from the list of our current guys. Here it is with him added:

1) Josh Winckowski 75%
2) Kenley Jansen 80.9%
3) Chris Sale 81.1%
4) Joe Jacques 81.8%
5) Chris Martin 82.9%
6) Kutter Crawford 83.6%
7) Tanner Houck 84.3%
8) Garrett Whitlock 85.6%
9) Nick Pivetta 86%
10) Chris Murphy 86.8%
11) Brayan Bello 87%
12) Mauricio Llovera 89.9%
13) John Schreiber 90%
14) Brennan Bernardino 90.9%
15) Brandon Walter 91%

Paxton was 84.8%, Kluber was 87.3%.

 

[JM3]

Decided to layer strike% over the Z-Contact #s to make a non-sensical stat I haven't bothered to name. Next step I'm going to layer exit velocities over this & make an even more non-sensical stat...

Rank	Pitcher	Z-Contact	Z-NonContact	Strike %	BREZ
1​	Josh Winckowski	75.0%​	25.0%​	65.44%​	16.36%​
2​	Kenley Jansen	80.9%​	19.1%​	67.68%​	12.93%​
3​	Chris Martin	82.9%​	17.1%​	74.45%​	12.73%​
4​	Chris Sale	81.1%​	18.9%​	65.31%​	12.34%​
5​	Joe Jacques	81.8%​	18.2%​	62.01%​	11.29%​
6​	Kutter Crawford	83.6%​	16.4%​	66.33%​	10.88%​
7​	Tanner Houck	84.3%​	15.7%​	68.20%​	10.71%​
8​	Garrett Whitlock	85.6%​	14.4%​	68.20%​	9.82%​
9​	Nick Pivetta	86.0%​	14.0%​	65.17%​	9.12%​
10​	Brayan Bello	87.0%​	13.0%​	63.16%​	8.21%​
11​	Chris Murphy	86.8%​	13.2%​	61.93%​	8.17%​
12​	Mauricio Llovera	89.9%​	10.1%​	64.73%​	6.54%​
13​	John Schreiber	90.0%​	10.0%​	62.65%​	6.27%​
14​	Brandon Walter	91.0%​	9.0%​	64.66%​	5.82%​
15​	Brennan Bernardino	90.9%​	9.1%​	62.12%​	5.65%​

 

[JM3]

I'm not actually going to do that...will just end up adding variable after variable to make it more interesting to me & waste a lot of time.