What do you want Pats to do with #3?

What do you want the Pats to do with #3?

  • Trade multiple picks for #1 and take Williams

    Votes: 20 4.4%
  • Draft Jayden Daniels at #3

    Votes: 94 20.5%
  • Draft Drake Maye at #3

    Votes: 203 44.2%
  • Draft Marvin Harrison Jr. at #3

    Votes: 56 12.2%
  • Draft someone else not mentioned at #3 (please specify)

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Trade down and pick up more picks and take a WR (Nabers, Odunze, etc.)

    Votes: 11 2.4%
  • Trade down and pick up more picks and take an OL (Fashanu, Alt, etc.)

    Votes: 36 7.8%
  • Trade down and pick up more picks and take a QB (McCarthy, Penix, etc.)

    Votes: 36 7.8%

  • Total voters
    459

bsan34

New Member
Jul 31, 2006
364
C'ville, VA / Hingham, MA
Hmmm interesting.

Giants give Pats: #6, #47, 2025 1st, and Daniel Jones (Pats absorb his 2024 contract, freeing up $36m for the Giants)
Pats give Giants: #3

Giants draft #3 Maye
Pats draft #6 McCarthy, #34 WR, #47 OL, #68 OL/WR, plus get NY's first rounder in 2025 and have Daniel Jones to either start for one season while McCarthy learns, or is a serviceable backup, but they're only taking him on really to eat his salary to gain NY's 2025 first rounder

All this is presuming the Pats prefer McCarthy over Maye but don't want to use #3 on McCarthy. This would not be a scenario where the Pats prefer Maye but accept McCarthy as a consolation prize so that they could add the other things.
If you're taking Jones from NYG, do you try the DET approach and draft one of the stud WRs at 6, doing WR or OL maneuvering at 34 and 47?
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Jul 2, 2006
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I'd note, I think any trade down hoping to get a QB is dumb, too many moving parts.
100%. Move down if you don't like the options at 3 are want to just get more value and build out the team, maybe including a QB flyer in round 2 or later. Don't move down out of some crazy calculus that seven different things will subsequently fall your way and allow you to move back up for a different QB.

LAC make a ton of sense to trade with MN. They have been most recently associated with JC Latham who is more of a 10-15 pick than top 5. 11/23 are worth about 2000 pts and 5 is worth 1700. Add in a 300 pt premium for jumping NYG and you have a trade both sides would live with. LAC come away with a top 3 OT and top 5 WR at 11/23 their top 2 needs. MN gets their QB of the future.
Yeah, I can see this happening.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
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Hmmm interesting.

Giants give Pats: #6, #47, 2025 1st, and Daniel Jones (Pats absorb his 2024 contract, freeing up $36m for the Giants)
Pats give Giants: #3

Giants draft #3 Maye
Pats draft #6 McCarthy, #34 WR, #47 OL, #68 OL/WR, plus get NY's first rounder in 2025 and have Daniel Jones to either start for one season while McCarthy learns, or is a serviceable backup, but they're only taking him on really to eat his salary to gain NY's 2025 first rounder

All this is presuming the Pats prefer McCarthy over Maye but don't want to use #3 on McCarthy. This would not be a scenario where the Pats prefer Maye but accept McCarthy as a consolation prize so that they could add the other things.
What if JJM were to go 4 or 5 though?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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What if JJM were to go 4 or 5 though?
Yeah, then you're stuck with Jones and Jacoby as your QB, or you trade back again and get Penix, or you try for your future QB next year and use #6 to draft Alt or Nabers or whomever.

No doubt there's risk involved in all these potential moves.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
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Yeah, then you're stuck with Jones and Jacoby as your QB, or you trade back again and get Penix, or you try for your future QB next year and use #6 to draft Alt or Nabers or whomever.

No doubt there's risk involved in all these potential moves.
Just looking at Jones’ contract, it is mostly base. He did not get a very large bonus. So he comes with a $36 million cap hit. That makes it a non-starter.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
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Just looking at Jones’ contract, it is mostly base. He did not get a very large bonus. So he comes with a $36 million cap hit. That makes it a non-starter.
Just this season though and that is why NYG would have to pay more to include him. I think there is a 1% chance in it happening but it is fun to game theory around it while we kill another 9hrs.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
440
My feeling going into today is the Patriots want JJ but know he’s an overdraft at #3. They’re afraid if they trade with the Vikings and wait at #11 he may be gone. I think both the Vikings and Patriots are working the phones with other teams trying to figure out how to make the puzzle pieces fit so the Vikings can trade with the Patriots but the Patriots still come away with McCarthy.
I think you're right, and I don't think it's a bad plan.
(I really hope they're not taking McCarthy, but I'll 100% be behind him if they do. What choice do I have?)
Come on, man. #Resist!
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
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Just this season though and that is why NYG would have to pay more to include him. I think there is a 1% chance in it happening but it is fun to game theory around it while we kill another 9hrs.
Is there a way for NFL teams to trade a player but retain some of the contract? I thought that was a baseball thing. I could be wrong but I thought in football you have to restructure and then trade. Not sure why I think that. I probably made it up.
 

Seels

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Jul 20, 2005
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the whole trade thing only makes sense if the Pats like neither Maye nor Daniels. And if that's the case, sure, trade for 11 a 2 and next year's first. Whatever. But if the Pats like Maye, then no. You'd need significantly more.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
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Is there a way for NFL teams to trade a player but retain some of the contract? I thought that was a baseball thing. I could be wrong but I thought in football you have to restructure and then trade. Not sure why I think that. I probably made it up.
The bonuses already paid to Jones would be attributed to NYG and NE would be on the hook for remaining salary guarantees. There are some post June 1 things that can further stretch out the cap hits but that is effectively how it works. NYG couldn't just decide to pay 1/2 the remaining salary though. That is a baseball/hockey thing.
 

Reverend

for king and country
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We have had a bunch of discussions about accuracy, how individual scouts chart etc.

Ben Solak from the Ringer charts QBs, and they just updated the draft guide with his stuff:
https://nfldraft.theringer.com/

He charts based on what he calls "pinpoint" which is, placement based so not just "it was somewhere his WR could catch it" but rather "it was where it is supposed to be" (ie the WR doesn't need to change his route, he can make the catch and continue the play, etc.).

His portion splits it out in areas of the field and situations (also his section includes pressure response).

Takeaways on the (non-Caleb) QBs I noted:

Daniels-
Excellent first read, HUGE drop beyond first read. Big drop in Clear to tight windows (but that's expected somewhat).... TERRIBLE sack numbers, took a sack on 23.3% of pressures, which blows away next closest (18.3 for JJ). Very accurate though overall outside intermediate middle, excellent deep middle and intermediate right, similar in and out of pocket, etc.

Maye-
Accuracy overall is spotty (Solak does note that this is a bit effected by him having a ridiculous ADOT). Had the best accuracy in the class for after the 1st read, was actually better out of pocket than in (good OOP numbers), one of the better tight window throwers (also threw to tight windows on a RIDICULOUS 25% of dropbacks), side notes.. really high drop rate for his WRs, took a sack on 14.7% of pressures. 2.9% interceptable (2.3 for JJ, 4.5 for Daniels)

JJ -
Poor after 1st read, struggles to his left, really struggled when outside the pocket. Positives... very strong under pressure numbers from the pocket (though higher sack rate), struggled with tight windows.

For the other two highlights:

Penix-
Never took sacks, not many interceptable balls, overall pinpoint was pretty low, poor after 1st read, a lot of area throws that got caught but weren't precise. Basically didn't scramble, pocket passer, either made the throw or chucked it away.

Nix-
Good accuracy, the expected drop offs (pressure, tight windows, 2nd reads, etc.) but also notes volume... very few throws down field, only 10% of throws past 1st read, even fewer tight windows, few deep balls but not great placement on them.

Basically his charting matches what we've heard all process...

Daniels... accurate to most areas when his 1st read is open, mostly from the pocket, eats a ton of hits/sacks, not great at the big arm throws, avoids the middle.

Maye... Makes tough throws, misses gimmies, inconsistent, but does avoid turnovers, CAN throw anywhere from any base, but can also just brick the layups in the pocket.

JJ.... low volume, clear issue going left, good at making pocket throws under pressure, escapes are usually runs.

Nix... he's making short first reads, pure schemed distributor mostly.

Penix... this is the guy who might be a bit off from how he's discussed... yes no sacks, yes pocket guy, yes arm is strong but... accuracy is spotty (some people HAVE been saying this, but I think it doesn't make the first line of how most think of him).
I keep thinking about these second read accuracy jump off numbers in the piece that @Cellar-Door helpfully posted and what they mean for the difficulties of projecting a QB. Like, we know that, in general, good NFL QBs need to be good at second read (and more throws). But looking at the top six QBs this year, we see that they have been very successful despite having considerably lower accuracy in their second reads. In effect, then, we want to know if they will develop this as a pro despite them not really being pushed to do it to succeed in college. That’s a super hard thing to do.
 

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
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View: https://twitter.com/LosTalksPats/status/1783533358355824711
#Patriots de facto general manager Eliot Wolf on the QB position: “When you look at the playoff teams, they all have really good quarterbacks. When you look at the final four teams, they all have really good, elite quarterbacks. I don’t think you’re really going anywhere unless you have one of those guys. So, we’ll determine if there’s one in this draft and if it’s somebody that fits with us.”
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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We've talked about the WRs and OTs and QBs. TE wise I would be happy with Sanders, Sinnott, Theo Johnson, or Stover sometime day 2 or 3. For Sinnott think LaPorta, for Stover think well-rounded good athlete (in-line), Johnson is a high end athlete and in-line guy, and Sanders is Njoku.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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We've talked about the WRs and OTs and QBs. TE wise I would be happy with Sanders, Sinnott, Theo Johnson, or Stover sometime day 2 or 3. For Sinnott think LaPorta, for Stover think well-rounded good athlete (in-line), Johnson is a high end athlete and in-line guy, and Sanders is Njoku.
THoughts on Wiley?
 
Oct 12, 2023
802
We've talked about the WRs and OTs and QBs. TE wise I would be happy with Sanders, Sinnott, Theo Johnson, or Stover sometime day 2 or 3. For Sinnott think LaPorta, for Stover think well-rounded good athlete (in-line), Johnson is a high end athlete and in-line guy, and Sanders is Njoku.
Johnson is fast but he’s straight line. His 3 cone was very unimpressive given his other testing and you can see it on the field in his lack of COD and stiffness in his routes. As a backup who can get a couple vertical chunk plays for you, maybe he can contribute.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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Johnson is fast but he’s straight line. His 3 cone was very unimpressive given his other testing and you can see it on the field in his lack of COD and stiffness in his routes. As a backup who can get a couple vertical chunk plays for you, maybe he can contribute.
I disagree a bit here. His shuttle was a 4.15 or 4.19 (93rd percentile for his size) and his cone is a 7.15 which is 69th percentile for his size. His CoD to me wasn't as much of an issue as the lack of route refinement vs tighter man coverage and waist-bending as a blocker. I think he could evolve into a starting in-line guy but no, not an elite one. Still, a starting in-line guy has some value.

Quick edit: I think his routes actually have some promise.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
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Apr 23, 2010
11,338
We've talked about the WRs and OTs and QBs. TE wise I would be happy with Sanders, Sinnott, Theo Johnson, or Stover sometime day 2 or 3. For Sinnott think LaPorta, for Stover think well-rounded good athlete (in-line), Johnson is a high end athlete and in-line guy, and Sanders is Njoku.
Can you repost your thoughts on OTs? I must have missed them
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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Can you repost your thoughts on OTs? I must have missed them
Keep in mind I didn't have a chance to look at everyone but:

81517

LT top tier is: Joe Alt and Amarius Mims. Olu Fashanu is right behind them. Tyler Guyton is up there too but he is not a year one starter.
RT top tier is: Latham and then a dropoff and Fuaga.

Day 2 there are multiple options for potential LTs: Paul, Fisher, Amegadjie, Suamataia, Coleman are your best bets. Rosengarten might be able to play there too but I think it is likely he is a RT.

Day 2 or late day 3 I think Caedan Wallace has a chance to develop into an RT. Foster can be a swing OT.

I do so 9-10 potential starting left tackles though which is a lot. Last year we had a top 4-5 guys and then a huge dropoff and no good day 2 prospects. This year it is very different.

Grade wise: I see the top 4 guys as top 15 - 20 picks, 5-6 as 20-35, 7-10 as 30/35-64, 11-14 as 55/64-90. So a chunk of a range.

I am lower on Fuaga, Fautanu, and Fashanu vs consensus and higher on Mims and Guyton.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Keep in mind I didn't have a chance to look at everyone but:

I do so 9-10 potential starting left tackles though which is a lot. Last year we had a top 4-5 guys and then a huge dropoff and no good day 2 prospects. This year it is very different.
How dare you not look at everyone and post it here for free!??!!?

This is why SoSH remains the best. And also, to me, more reason to stick & pick a QB at #3. Based on your rankings, there should be good OT's available into Round 3, in other words, certainly at #34 and likely at #68 as well.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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It would be funny to me if they went with Maye and then Coleman (the WR) and Coleman (the OT). Coleman being the new Jones (as in a last name we have multiple of). Both Coleman's are fits too!
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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The bonuses already paid to Jones would be attributed to NYG and NE would be on the hook for remaining salary guarantees. There are some post June 1 things that can further stretch out the cap hits but that is effectively how it works. NYG couldn't just decide to pay 1/2 the remaining salary though. That is a baseball/hockey thing.
The Jets just did this with Zach Wilson this week.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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The Jets just did this with Zach Wilson this week.
Not exactly. The Jets paid half of the roster bonus. As far as I can tell you cannot pay the salary in a trade. You can negotiate on bonuses. So in a Daniel Jones trade... can't touch the base but could pay his $500k workout bonus.
If they were trading Jones and the receiving team wanted them to eat money they'd have to re-negotiate the deal to transfer base to bonus.
 

dynomite

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It would be funny to me if they went with Maye and then Coleman (the WR) and Coleman (the OT). Coleman being the new Jones (as in a last name we have multiple of). Both Coleman's are fits too!
Personally as long as Maye holds up a Patriots jersey and smiles for the cameras, I'll be happy whether they draft the Coleman twins or not.

Given the similarity of your rankings, if Paul's on the board at #34 would you pick him, or trade down/wait for #68 and hope one of Rosengarten/Fisher/etc. is still there? Or does that depend upon which WRs/others are still available at #34?
 

Gash Prex

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One thing I don't understand is that if you are convinced Maye can be the franchise quarterback, why does trading out under any circumstances make sense? Even in the scenario when they offer up a massive draft haul I don't see how that helps because I don't see a way to acquire one in the future without giving up that massive haul.
 

rodderick

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One thing I don't understand is that if you are convinced Maye can be the franchise quarterback, why does trading out under any circumstances make sense? Even in the scenario when they offer up a massive draft haul I don't see how that helps because I don't see a way to acquire one in the future without giving up that massive haul.
Yeah, best case scenario you need to use the 2025 first you get for trading down to trade up for a QB next year.
 

bsan34

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Jul 31, 2006
364
C'ville, VA / Hingham, MA
One thing I don't understand is that if you are convinced Maye can be the franchise quarterback, why does trading out under any circumstances make sense? Even in the scenario when they offer up a massive draft haul I don't see how that helps because I don't see a way to acquire one in the future without giving up that massive haul.
Yeah, you only do the trade if you're out on Maye as a potential franchise guy.
 

j44thor

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Aug 1, 2006
11,252
One thing I don't understand is that if you are convinced Maye can be the franchise quarterback, why does trading out under any circumstances make sense? Even in the scenario when they offer up a massive draft haul I don't see how that helps because I don't see a way to acquire one in the future without giving up that massive haul.
I think the majority of us agree there is no trade that makes sense if Maye is there at 3 but what else are we going to do to entertain ourselves for another 5hrs?
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
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I think the majority of us agree there is no trade that makes sense if Maye is there at 3 but what else are we going to do to entertain ourselves for another 5hrs?
Hold out hope that they trade back into the 1st to grab a sliding OT or WR? Also, drink. That's my plan and I'm sticking to it.

Wait, did you mean the 5 hours from now until the clock starts? Or clock starts until the end of the first round?

I guess that doesn't really change my statement though. I still plan on doing both.
 

stp

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Jul 19, 2005
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Those fifteen minutes after Washington picks are going to seem like an eternity while we wait to see if there is a pick or a trade. I'm hoping for Maye.
 

mcpickl

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Jul 23, 2007
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Not exactly. The Jets paid half of the roster bonus. As far as I can tell you cannot pay the salary in a trade. You can negotiate on bonuses. So in a Daniel Jones trade... can't touch the base but could pay his $500k workout bonus.
If they were trading Jones and the receiving team wanted them to eat money they'd have to re-negotiate the deal to transfer base to bonus.
What's the difference?

Wilson was due a 5.5M salary this year.

The Jets are paying 2.75M, and the broncos are paying him 2.75M this year.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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Personally as long as Maye holds up a Patriots jersey and smiles for the cameras, I'll be happy whether they draft the Coleman twins or not.

Given the similarity of your rankings, if Paul's on the board at #34 would you pick him, or trade down/wait for #68 and hope one of Rosengarten/Fisher/etc. is still there? Or does that depend upon which WRs/others are still available at #34?
I would ignore my board and use a consensus one. Paul is probably a little rich at 34 and I would guess might even be there at 68.

34 is tough because the first and second tier of WRs and OTs are gone. I happen to love Xavier Worthy but he isn’t coming here.

There is also the question of whether or not Coleman is a good fit with Maye. It’s mixed.
 

Cellar-Door

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What's the difference?

Wilson was due a 5.5M salary this year.

The Jets are paying 2.75M, and the broncos are paying him 2.75M this year.
Wilson was owed a base salary of $1.055M (he still is) and a roster bonus of just under 4.5M. The Jets paid 2.76M of the bonus, effectively halving what DEN would owe. But they paid none of it from base salary.

Jones for example is owed $30M in BASE, and no roster bonus. AS far as I can tell, a team cannot pay any of a player's BASE salary (what we would consider salary) in a trade in the NFL. They can pay a portion of the bonuses, as the Jets did.

So that is the difference.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Those fifteen minutes after Washington picks are going to seem like an eternity while we wait to see if there is a pick or a trade. I'm hoping for Maye.
As I was reminded here this morning, it's now only 10 minutes between picks.
 

mcpickl

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Wilson was owed a base salary of $1.055M (he still is) and a roster bonus of just under 4.5M. The Jets paid 2.76M of the bonus, effectively halving what DEN would owe. But they paid none of it from base salary.

Jones for example is owed $30M in BASE, and no roster bonus. AS far as I can tell, a team cannot pay any of a player's BASE salary (what we would consider salary) in a trade in the NFL. They can pay a portion of the bonuses, as the Jets did.

So that is the difference.
But we're talking about, can the Giants pay half of Jones 30M salary to facilitate a trade?

So what's the difference if the Giants just pay him 15M as a bonus, and his acquiring team pays him the rest of his 15M as salary?

This happens all the time.

I don't understand the issue here?
 

SoxFanInPdx

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Hope they stay put. Next years crop of QB's sounds nowhere near this one. And if they did, have fun trying to convince a team to trade out of it. Doesn't seem smart or worth it all. You need an elite QB to go anywhere. Especially, the AFC.
 

Reverend

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Right, it basically says that they are inclined to keep the pick but won't if they get an offer that they like.
Right. Which is basically a description of established reality. Gravity is still in effect too.
 

dynomite

Member
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One thing I don't understand is that if you are convinced Maye can be the franchise quarterback, why does trading out under any circumstances make sense? Even in the scenario when they offer up a massive draft haul I don't see how that helps because I don't see a way to acquire one in the future without giving up that massive haul.
Hope they stay put. Next years crop of QB's sounds nowhere near this one. And if they did, have fun trying to convince a team to trade out of it. Doesn't seem smart or worth it all. You need an elite QB to go anywhere. Especially, the AFC.
This has been my concern all along. I mean, theoretically we'd have another 2025 1st rounder (from the Giants/Vikings/whoever), but there's no guarantee either of our picks would be a Top 5 pick, and I don't see why we're any more likely to find The Guy (TM) next year than this year.

Also, to @SoxFanInPdx's point, here are the ages of some of the other AFC QBs:

- Patrick Mahomes, 28
- Josh Allen, 27
- Joe Burrow, 27
- Lamar Jackson, 27
- Tua T., 26
- Justin Herbert, 26
- Lawrence, 24
- CJ Stroud, 22
- Anthony Richardson, 21

This isn't the mid-late 2010s, when Brady, Manning, Big Ben, Flacco and Rivers were all in their 30s and nearing the end of the line. The Pats are going to need to compete with this murderer's row in the AFC for the foreseeable future, and they can't do that without a QB on their level, and the most likely place to find him is tonight at pick #3.

Right. Which is basically a description of established reality. Gravity is still in effect too.
Sorry, but you were supposed to tweet that and attribute gravity being in effect to an unnamed league executive.
 
Last edited:

Cellar-Door

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But we're talking about, can the Giants pay half of Jones 30M salary to facilitate a trade?

So what's the difference if the Giants just pay him 15M as a bonus, and his acquiring team pays him the rest of his 15M as salary?

This happens all the time.

I don't understand the issue here?
They would have to get him to agree to re-negotiate his contract. Could he be willing to do that? Maybe? But most likely he'd want to get something out of it, like more guarantees in future years, otherwise he has no incentive.

The key here is... you can split bonus money in the existing contract however you want, you can't split the actual guaranteed salary. So the Jets could trade Zach Wilson and pay some of his bonus without him being involved. If his SALARY had been $5M... they would have had to have him re-negotiate in order to pay that.

Teams can't unilaterally change a contract to make the salary into bonus.

As to whether it happens all the time.... kind of? But not really, ususally the player is getting something in terms of guarantees or something else. So sometimes it's guaranteeing an extra year to get a trade to go through, sometimes (like with Diggs) they might get rid of un-guaranteed future years to let a guy hit FA earlier... but in all of those cases the player has to re-work the contract and he has to get something for it.

On the case of Jones... he has $81M guaranteed on his deal, if you want him to re-work the deal to convert some of his 2024-25 salary to roster bonus.... you have to give him something, whether that is adding money this year, or guaranteeing an extra year of Base in 2025-26, he doesn't have much incentive to just do you a solid.
 

j44thor

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I would ignore my board and use a consensus one. Paul is probably a little rich at 34 and I would guess might even be there at 68.

34 is tough because the first and second tier of WRs and OTs are gone. I happen to love Xavier Worthy but he isn’t coming here.

There is also the question of whether or not Coleman is a good fit with Maye. It’s mixed.
Would you consider McConkey at 34? I definitely would, he might not be a great fit with Maye next season but I'm not counting on Maye next season in fact I'd prefer he sit the majority if not all his rookie season. Let him develop and McConkey will be a go to 85/1100 yd receiver waiting for him in 2025.