What Can/Should NY Do?

jon abbey

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Not only has it been clear for many months that NY is not going over the LT line (it would be news if this was changing), but Cashman tends to only trade for upgrades to the MLB team when he’s the only real bidder (Sonny Gray, Paxton, Taillon, Kahnle/Robertson). This deadline it seems like buyers will likely outnumber sellers and so I doubt Cashman will trade for any real impact players.
 

crow216

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Not only has it been clear for many months that NY is not going over the LT line (it would be news if this was changing), but Cashman tends to only trade for upgrades to the MLB team when he’s the only real bidder (Sonny Gray, Paxton, Taillon, Kahnle/Robertson). This deadline it seems like buyers will likely outnumber sellers and so I doubt Cashman will trade for any real impact players.
They'll have his head in the media if he doesn't. Inevitably, Boston is going to come back down to earth and the wild card is WELL within reach. There is no excuse.
 

jon abbey

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They'll have his head in the media if he doesn't. Inevitably, Boston is going to come back down to earth and the wild card is WELL within reach. There is no excuse.
Eh, not sure that most midseason trades matter that much, but Cashman does have a ton of excess depth in the minors and could put together a nice package for someone if he chooses and they can make the money work.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I'm glad he's finally playing in the outfield, but if this was a possibility all along it is exceedingly annoying. With all of the roster issues surrounding outfield it sure would have been nice to stick Stanton out there and then put Sanchez or Gittens or even Ford at DH.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, he's a terrible manager, the only one who doesn't think so (or who refuses to admit his mistake) is Cashman. A good manager would have pulled out a few of the games that the bullpen has blown in the last month or two and that on its own would have NY right around OAK for the second wild card and decidedly closer in the division. It's infuriating, and it has me largely checked out of watching the games.

Edit: I didn't realize I used the word 'infuriating' two posts up also, but it is, it's really fucking infuriating.
 

barbed wire Bob

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Yeah, he's a terrible manager, the only one who doesn't think so (or who refuses to admit his mistake) is Cashman. A good manager would have pulled out a few of the games that the bullpen has blown in the last month or two and that on its own would have NY right around OAK for the second wild card and decidedly closer in the division. It's infuriating, and it has me largely checked out of watching the games.

Edit: I didn't realize I used the word 'infuriating' two posts up also, but it is, it's really fucking infuriating.
If the word fits…
 

ThePrideofShiner

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The Yankees are only 3.5 out of the wild card? Hard to justify being sellers then. I had no clue they were that close.
 

jon abbey

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Again, if they were sellers, what would they sell? I don’t expect them to do much of anything except move fringe 40 man prospects.
 

BigSoxFan

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Again, if they were sellers, what would they sell? I don’t expect them to do much of anything except move fringe 40 man prospects.
Chapman? Only signed through next year, his age 34 season. Not sure what his value is across the league given the recent struggles but you have to imagine someone would offer up something substantial for him given the upside.

I don’t think the Yankees would actually consider this though given they’re not too far off from WC.
 

jon abbey

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I would trade both Chapman and Britton for very little if that was possible, they make a lot, can't be optioned down, and NY has a ton of promising guys to try behind them. Both are signed through 2022.

No one has given him a hard time for this decision that I've seen, but Cashman's decision to commit to Britton this winter looks awful given that we now know he had to definitely stay under $210M. It didn't look great at the time, but we gave him the benefit of the doubt, figuring he could spend what he felt necessary but that was obviously not the case.
 
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Apisith

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It's pretty tough for Cashman right now. They don't have any high-earning player coming off the books for next year. Kluber's at $11m/year but if he looks decent in his return, he's almost required for contention next year. They have a lot of players moving from ARB1 to ARB2, and ARB2 to ARB3. Arb raises are projected at $15-20m if they bring everyone back. That'll put them over the CBT limit for next year. They're almost committed to going over next year regardless of what happens in free agency. And even if they bring everyone back, are they going to be competitive? You can chalk up a lot of what's happened this year to luck and injury, but man, Cashman's definitely under pressure now.

They also don't look like they're going to graduate any upper-tier prospect this year or next. Schmidt and Deivi getting injured and regressing has affected the outlook. Is ownership committed to going over the limit for 2-3 years in a row? I mean, what's the point in staying under the limit this year then. Going by Fangraphs, Peraza is their #1 prospect but he plays the same position as Torres and Torres can't move over to 2B because LeMahieu has a long-term deal. He should be moved for a SP.

They're almost committed to spending a lot in FA otherwise this window closes in two years and you're into another rebuilding phase.
 

jon abbey

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I have some answers for that when I have time later but in the meantime Clarke Schmidt FINALLY pitched in a real game today, 3 1 0 0 0 5 in the FCL. It's literally 4-5 levels below where he should be right now, but nice to see him back.
 

crow216

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I don't think the CBT is a concern for next year. Collective bargaining negotiations are the reason they stayed under, much to everyone's surprise. Bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy here. Stayed under before the year started and now the team didn't perform well enough to justify going over at the deadline. If Cashman goes over at the deadline, I'd be even more upset. Now, a lot of smart Yankees fans are gonna say "who would you have gotten before the year started considering how strong the team was on paper." Easy, bullpen arms and a lefty bat. Cashman needs to stop operating as if this team can be healthy. He's only ever gotten away with it because the offense carries them to the playoffs. Well, here we are.
 

jon abbey

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Too many people continue to think that spending money in baseball fixes problems. It creates problems more than it fixes them. For instance, NY's bullpen issues right now are arguably because they spent too much money there, Britton has been a zero all year and Chapman has been a mess for a while, but they aren't going anywhere because of what they get paid. I think there's a real argument to be made that if Cashman had spent $30M less on the bullpen (no Chapman, Britton, O'Day, Wilson) that it would be stronger, it would certainly be more flexible.
 

jon abbey

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I found a list of the top 10 FA relievers last winter:

1) Liam Hendriks. He's been very good but he signed for 3/54, no way NY was going to go there with two relievers already making eight figures.

2) Brad Hand. He's been OK, good start to the year, a 4.08 ERA since May 8. He signed for 1/10.5, not worth it.

3) Pedro Baez. He signed for 2/12.5 and has yet to pitch.

4) Alex Colome. He signed for 1/6.25 and has been pretty bad, -0.9 bWAR.

5) Blake Treinen. He's been pretty good, signed for 2/17.5, 2.40 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP.

6) Trevor May. He's been mediocre for the Mets, 0.2 bWAR and a 2/15.5 deal.

7) Trevor Rosenthal. Signed for 1/11 and didn't throw a pitch, out for the season.

You get the point, out of the top 7, two very good (Hendriks/Treinen), three mediocre to bad, and two who have not thrown a pitch this season.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agency-ranking-top-10-relievers-available-including-liam-hendriks-and-brad-hand/
 

crow216

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Too many people continue to think that spending money in baseball fixes problems. It creates problems more than it fixes them. For instance, NY's bullpen issues right now are arguably because they spent too much money there, Britton has been a zero all year and Chapman has been a mess for a while, but they aren't going anywhere because of what they get paid. I think there's a real argument to be made that if Cashman had spent $30M less on the bullpen (no Chapman, Britton, O'Day, Wilson) that it would be stronger, it would certainly be more flexible.
I don't think spending more money makes a better baseball team. I think limiting how much you spend can limit how much you can improve, period. The Yankees cannot simultaneously hold onto every damn prospect and also stay under the tax every year. Not when they want to also have large inflexible contracts like Cole and Chapman.

Cashman has done a really brilliant job building a perennial contender and really poor job getting the final pieces to put them over the top. I really like our rotation, especially for next year. But we are finally at the point where the offense building process is very questionable here on out. Do you give Judge a big contract? Sanchez? How do you create roster flexibility if you don't get rid of a couple of players? Who plays 1st when or if Voit ever gets healthy AFTER you acquire a SS? Is DJ going to bounce back? Aaron Hicks has 5 or 6 more years on his extension.

Sorry for the rambly post I just think the offense only works when they're healthy with how this roster is constructed. That doesn't ever happen.
 

bankshot1

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I think the the critical problem for the Yankees to address is the long-term viability of Judge-Stanton-Sanchez and how to restructure and escape a team basically that looks and plays like a beer league softball team.
 

terrynever

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I think the the critical problem for the Yankees to address is the long-term viability of Judge-Stanton-Sanchez and how to restructure and escape a team basically that looks and plays like a beer league softball team.
This is where I am at, too. The Yankees’ injury trend in recent years seems linked to their larger position players. Stanton, Judge. Sanchez. You forgot the real softball star, Voit.
What’s wrong with trusting your farm system? Stop spending on behemoths. Rebuild from within for two years. Shoot for 2024. I’ve got time.
 

nattysez

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Stanton and Judge together essentially give you a single very good player in light of their injury issues. I just don't see how that's sustainable in the long term. Judge is 29, can't stay healthy, and is going to be a FA in two years. Getting max value for him now is the smart play. I know most fans would riot, but doing a Chapman-to-the-Cubs-type deal for Judge has got to be under consideration, assuming that Stanton's contract renders him untradable.
 

bankshot1

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This is where I am at, too. The Yankees’ injury trend in recent years seems linked to their larger position players. Stanton, Judge. Sanchez. You forgot the real softball star, Voit.
What’s wrong with trusting your farm system? Stop spending on behemoths. Rebuild from within for two years. Shoot for 2024. I’ve got time.
Voit-exactly.

But Voit's not going to break the bank, or perpetuate the model for another 5-8 years. Judge-Stanton-Sanchez will and will also tax the hospital. Big guys don't age gracefully and IMO once Judge loses a little bat speed, (which he will) he'll be a $40MM a year matching book-end hitting .235 with 20-25 HR potential.
 

EvilEmpire

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Judge is 29, can't stay healthy, and is going to be a FA in two years. Getting max value for him now is the smart play.
We'll see how how the season ends up, but aside from going on the Covid list on July 16th, Judge has been pretty healthy this year. I think he's a position player that the Yankees keep trying to build around.

Sanchez has rebuilt his value closer to where it should be, so if they try to move him I don't thinks they'll be selling too low. I think a move is possible there.

Edit: I have a feeling that one of Voit or Gleyber might not be with the team next year. If Gleyber sticks around it will be at 2B with DJ at 1B. If Voit stays, DJ will be at 2B and Gleyber will go someplace else.
 

crow216

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Yea easy on the hot takes for Judge. He’s a great all around player and injuries aren’t a huge concern relative to Voit and Stanton.
 

Wingack

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This is where I am at, too. The Yankees’ injury trend in recent years seems linked to their larger position players. Stanton, Judge. Sanchez. You forgot the real softball star, Voit.
What’s wrong with trusting your farm system? Stop spending on behemoths. Rebuild from within for two years. Shoot for 2024. I’ve got time.
Judge and Sanchez are from the farm system and Voit was stolen from the Cardinals. Stanton was the only behemoth spent on.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yea easy on the hot takes for Judge. He’s a great all around player and injuries aren’t a huge concern relative to Voit and Stanton.
Do you have any concerns with retaining Judge on a big contract for his age 31+ seasons?
 

terrynever

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We'll see how how the season ends up, but aside from going on the Covid list on July 16th, Judge has been pretty healthy this year. I think he's a position player that the Yankees keep trying to build around.

Sanchez has rebuilt his value closer to where it should be, so if they try to move him I don't thinks they'll be selling too low. I think a move is possible there.

Edit: I have a feeling that one of Voit or Gleyber might not be with the team next year. If Gleyber sticks around it will be at 2B with DJ at 1B. If Voit stays, DJ will be at 2B and Gleyber will go someplace else.
This is the big question going forward. Do you keep Judge or trade him before he hits the market in two years? If Jasson Dominguez lives up to the hype, why keep Judge around?

I am not mentioning Stanton at all because he represents everything that is wrong with this team, from head on down.
 

Doc Zero

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One thing Jomboy mentioned yesterday that really stuck out to me was his preference for the Yankees trade deadline to be about targeting valuable, cost-controlled players for a 2022/2023, semi-rebuild effort. Essentially, just treat the trade deadline as a pseudo offseason and make some savvy moves to improve the team's upcoming roster issues rather than trying to scramble for 2021. I'm sorry for not bringing much more to that to the discussion, but I thought it was a pretty good direction the organization could move in if they didn't think being outright sellers at the deadline was the best option for their fans, their bottom line, and the team's future.
 

EvilEmpire

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This is the big question going forward. Do you keep Judge or trade him before he hits the market in two years? If Jasson Dominguez lives up to the hype, why keep Judge around?
1) Dominguez plays CF. Is that going to change at the MLB level? I honestly haven't heard that he projects as a RFer.
2) Regardless of where he plays in the OF, I don't think they'll really know if he's living up to the hype in two years. In two years I think the Yankees are probably just starting the process of finding out.

So no, I don't really see any conflict with Judge and the Martian. If anything, Dominguez on a cheap contract makes it easier for Judge to be one of the guys they Yankees spend on.
 

terrynever

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1) Dominguez plays CF. Is that going to change at the MLB level? I honestly haven't heard that he projects as a RFer.
2) Regardless of where he plays in the OF, I don't think they'll really know if he's living up to the hype in two years. In two years I think the Yankees are probably just starting the process of finding out.

So no, I don't really see any conflict with Judge and the Martian. If anything, Dominguez on a cheap contract makes it easier for Judge to be one of the guys they Yankees spend on.
How fast did Devers get to the big leagues? I know Jasson lost 2020 as did all minor leaguers and the Yankees have nurtured him in Tampa but with the truly talented players, two years in the minors is about right. If Stanton weren’t clogging up the payroll, I would be in favor of keeping Judge. But you gotta pay the piper when you take on a salary that is costing the Yankees $22M annually (my thanks to Crow and Abbey for straightening me out on that number; I thought it was higher).
 

terrynever

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One thing Jomboy mentioned yesterday that really stuck out to me was his preference for the Yankees trade deadline to be about targeting valuable, cost-controlled players for a 2022/2023, semi-rebuild effort. Essentially, just treat the trade deadline as a pseudo offseason and make some savvy moves to improve the team's upcoming roster issues rather than trying to scramble for 2021. I'm sorry for not bringing much more to that to the discussion, but I thought it was a pretty good direction the organization could move in if they didn't think being outright sellers at the deadline was the best option for their fans, their bottom line, and the team's future.
I think sensible Yankee fans believe in the general plan of building from within. I thought that was the whole lesson of the 2017 season. Trust the kids.
 

crow216

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Do you have any concerns with retaining Judge on a big contract for his age 31+ seasons?
No question. But who really is a good bet to give a contract at 31? I said in another thread, the most I give a 31 year old Judge is 5-6 years. He's gonna want 8-9. Stanton has 5 more after this (yelp). That would mean 3-4 years of Judge/Stanton overlap if they don't pull an Arod with Stanton in his final year or two. Judge can slide into the DH spot in the second half of that sort of contract but I would let someone else give him 7-8 years.

Short Version: I would love Judge until around 35-36 but beyond that, I'm absolutely fine letting someone else give him 35m/yr
 

crow216

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One thing Jomboy mentioned yesterday that really stuck out to me was his preference for the Yankees trade deadline to be about targeting valuable, cost-controlled players for a 2022/2023, semi-rebuild effort. Essentially, just treat the trade deadline as a pseudo offseason and make some savvy moves to improve the team's upcoming roster issues rather than trying to scramble for 2021. I'm sorry for not bringing much more to that to the discussion, but I thought it was a pretty good direction the organization could move in if they didn't think being outright sellers at the deadline was the best option for their fans, their bottom line, and the team's future.
They don't need a rebuild. I'm still not convinced that the majority of this year's misfortune is just that, bad luck. An out here, a bad inning there, lots of 1 run losses, lots of poorly timed injuries, covid... I wouldn't overreact in one direction or the other. Which means a boring trade deadline and offseason.

I've said this in a few different ways already but my gut tells me the only thing this team needs is depth to cover for regular season injuries and a more balanced lineup. You don't rebuild because Corey Kluber is hurt or because Chapman had a bad month. The lineup does need...let me rebrand this...a refresh. Tons of dead weight.

Here's my priority list

1) Figure out what do with the Hicks in the offseason
2) Get rid of Gardner
3) Get rid of Frazier
4) Get rid of Wade
5) Get rid of Boone
6) Get rid of pitchers who shouldn't sniff an MLB roster (Kriske, Nelson, Wojchewzi SP?...etc)
7) Find a CF and a LF who are defense forward players who aren't 3 true outcome players on offense
8) re-order the lineup and add consistency. Ideally, one of the new outfielders can hit leadoff and push the rest of the lineup back one spot.
9) Extend Urshela
10) Get Torres to 2b, DJ to 1b, and find a new short stop.
11) Rotate Voit and Stanton between DH and Stanton in LF occasionally.

I need to put more time into that but I think some of those changes would go a very long way in changing the roster construction and depth. It's time to move on from the players who add no value.
 

BigSoxFan

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No question. But who really is a good bet to give a contract at 31? I said in another thread, the most I give a 31 year old Judge is 5-6 years. He's gonna want 8-9. Stanton has 5 more after this (yelp). That would mean 3-4 years of Judge/Stanton overlap if they don't pull an Arod with Stanton in his final year or two. Judge can slide into the DH spot in the second half of that sort of contract but I would let someone else give him 7-8 years.

Short Version: I would love Judge until around 35-36 but beyond that, I'm absolutely fine letting someone else give him 35m/yr
Yup. Judge has thankfully been healthy this year outside of COVID but I'd have concerns locking him up in his 30s, especially given how big he is. He's a better hitter than Richie Sexson but the latter didn't last long after his Age 31 season. Are there any good historical comps for someone that tall being effective into their mid 30s? Winfield?

For me, the question is does it make sense from a roster construction standpoint to lock up Judge to big money? Or, should you deal him now and retain the payroll flexibility? The Stanton deal really does suck.
 

nattysez

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They don't need a rebuild. I'm still not convinced that the majority of this year's misfortune is just that, bad luck. An out here, a bad inning there, lots of 1 run losses, lots of poorly timed injuries, covid... I wouldn't overreact in one direction or the other. Which means a boring trade deadline and offseason.

I've said this in a few different ways already but my gut tells me the only thing this team needs is depth to cover for regular season injuries and a more balanced lineup. You don't rebuild because Corey Kluber is hurt or because Chapman had a bad month. The lineup does need...let me rebrand this...a refresh. Tons of dead weight.

Here's my priority list

1) Figure out what do with the Hicks in the offseason
2) Get rid of Gardner
3) Get rid of Frazier
4) Get rid of Wade
5) Get rid of Boone
6) Get rid of pitchers who shouldn't sniff an MLB roster (Kriske, Nelson, Wojchewzi SP?...etc)
7) Find a CF and a LF who are defense forward players who aren't 3 true outcome players on offense
8) re-order the lineup and add consistency. Ideally, one of the new outfielders can hit leadoff and push the rest of the lineup back one spot.
9) Extend Urshela
10) Get Torres to 2b, DJ to 1b, and find a new short stop.
11) Rotate Voit and Stanton between DH and Stanton in LF occasionally.

I need to put more time into that but I think some of those changes would go a very long way in changing the roster construction and depth. It's time to move on from the players who add no value.
#6 is much more easily said than done as evidenced by the fact that the Yankees just had to overpay for a reliever with a 4.93 ERA.
 

ehaz

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They don't need a rebuild. I'm still not convinced that the majority of this year's misfortune is just that, bad luck. An out here, a bad inning there, lots of 1 run losses, lots of poorly timed injuries, covid... I wouldn't overreact in one direction or the other. Which means a boring trade deadline and offseason.

I've said this in a few different ways already but my gut tells me the only thing this team needs is depth to cover for regular season injuries and a more balanced lineup. You don't rebuild because Corey Kluber is hurt or because Chapman had a bad month. The lineup does need...let me rebrand this...a refresh. Tons of dead weight.

Here's my priority list

1) Figure out what do with the Hicks in the offseason
2) Get rid of Gardner
3) Get rid of Frazier
4) Get rid of Wade
5) Get rid of Boone
6) Get rid of pitchers who shouldn't sniff an MLB roster (Kriske, Nelson, Wojchewzi SP?...etc)
7) Find a CF and a LF who are defense forward players who aren't 3 true outcome players on offense
8) re-order the lineup and add consistency. Ideally, one of the new outfielders can hit leadoff and push the rest of the lineup back one spot.
9) Extend Urshela
10) Get Torres to 2b, DJ to 1b, and find a new short stop.
11) Rotate Voit and Stanton between DH and Stanton in LF occasionally.

I need to put more time into that but I think some of those changes would go a very long way in changing the roster construction and depth. It's time to move on from the players who add no value.
Regarding LF, I was a little worried last off-season that NY would sign Michael Brantley even though it wasn’t an obvious need. Complete hitter who I guarantee would all of the sudden hit 35 HRs a year playing in Yankee stadium.
 

crow216

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#6 is much more easily said than done as evidenced by the fact that the Yankees just had to overpay for a reliever with a 4.93 ERA.
I wouldn't put much doubt in Cashman's ability to make a trade. I had Odor written off too. He knows how to find value.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Park is 25, left handed, has some pop, and has put up a 1.042 OPS in Scranton. Isn’t this exactly the kind of player the Yankees should be seeing what they have during a lost season? I‘m sure I’m missing some 40 man roster crunch though.