What are your best offers to Devers and Bogaerts?

AlNipper49

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Apr 3, 2001
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I agree Renton and Arenado were better players and Arenado is a better player now. Other risk factors are that Devers doesn’t look like the type to age well and his second half this year was historically bad. On the other hand he’s a known quantity, well-liked and a top 5ish 3Bman.

I care less about payroll now as it’s cleared up a bit and will get way more clear by the time any reasonable non-Correa contract is up. It’s the tail end that could hamper the Sox for a decade.
If I was Bloom I would offer 6/210.

The market out there sucks. He’s good. I’d Pablo’s him out of the water AAV in order to get less years. That gives us enough time to get his replacement up and cost controlled, probably dovetailing the end of his tenure here.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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Both Jon Heyman and Jim Bowden put out articles on the top free agents and "experts" projections on contracts.

Shortstops

Heyman
Carlos Correa 9/275
Trea Turner 9/275
Xander Bogaerts 8/225
Dansby Swanson 7/175

Bowden
Correa 10/327
Turner 8/264
Bogaerts 7/196
Swanson 6/154
 
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nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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So, Heyman predicts that Bogaerts will get 8/$225m, which I think we can safely interpret as what the Boras camp would like to see.

I think a reunion could definitely happen, but I doubt it happens before he opts out.
 

fivejackace

lurker
May 2, 2008
8
I'm actually more cautious with Devers. While Bogaerts seems to be as durable as a player can be, Devers--in his mid 20's is starting to play like he's old.
FWIW, Devers' most similar batters thru age 25 on B-Ref is a horror show of guys who flamed out early.

1. Eric Chavez, zero impact seasons after age 26 (!!)
2. Ryan Zimmerman, 1 good season after age 28
3. Bob Horner, finished at 28
4. David Wright, last good, healthy season at 29
5. Scott Rolen, pretty mediocre after 30, also maybe not a good comp because can't think of Devers in the same stratosphere defensively
6. Longoria, last good fully healthy season at 30
7. Troy Glaus, last good season at 31
8. Harland Clift, all but finished at 28
9. Arrenado
10. Ron Santo, hall of famer finished at 33.
 

RedOctober3829

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Jul 19, 2005
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deep inside Guido territory
The Red Sox are in active talks with homegrown stars Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, but sources suggest there is plenty of work to do to complete a deal with either of them.

The feeling is their chances at present are somewhat better to get a Devers deal done, but sources say they remain “oceans apart” in even those talks.
The Red Sox are said to have offered Devers a bit more than the $212 million deal Austin Riley signed with the Braves, but he is seeking significantly more than that. He has the most extra-base hits in baseball over the past four years, is second in total bases to Freddie Freeman by two, is also second in RBIs in the American League to Jose Abreu, and third in home runs in the AL to Aaron Judge and Marcus Semien.

Also of significance: Devers, who is seeking $300 million-plus, is only a year away from free agency.

Word is, Devers is willing to be patient, which should come as no surprise since he’s holding a lot of the leverage, if not all of it. One source thought he may even wait to see what happens with his good friend and longtime Red Sox teammate Xander Bogaerts. Perhaps complicating matters, talks with Bogaerts seem even less promising at the time.
https://nypost.com/2022/11/09/red-sox-remain-far-apart-with-rafael-devers-xander-bogaerts/
 

iddoc

lurker
Nov 17, 2006
63
X: 6/168. Maybe a bit higher, more out of sentimentality than reason.

Devers…worries me a bit. If a relatively minor hamstring injury derails him to the point of what we saw in the second half of this season, at what should be the peak of his career, I am concerned that such stretches will become increasingly common as he ages. 4/120 after 2023.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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I’m starting to think, given this emerging high $ market, that if want X, we’re going to have to go long on years. Have to get to $200M+, so maybe 7/$200 and an option year based on ABs? That keeps his AAV under $30.

Go long and figure out where to play him later. His body type should age well.

The one thing we can offer him that other teams can’t: legacy. That requires years more than AAV.
 

Manuel Aristides

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Apr 7, 2009
134
I’m starting to think, given this emerging high $ market, that if want X, we’re going to have to go long on years. Have to get to $200M+, so maybe 7/$200 and an option year based on ABs? That keeps his AAV under $30.

Go long and figure out where to play him later. His body type should age well.

The one thing we can offer him that other teams can’t: legacy. That requires years more than AAV.
Agreed. 8/$200 and 10/$300. Hitch the wagon to these two. Not a very sophisticated analysis but: you have to make something the face/core of a team with this much money and fan attention; homegrown all-star infielders seems like the best choice available.
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Jul 18, 2005
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I’m starting to think, given this emerging high $ market, that if want X, we’re going to have to go long on years. Have to get to $200M+, so maybe 7/$200 and an option year based on ABs? That keeps his AAV under $30.

Go long and figure out where to play him later. His body type should age well.

The one thing we can offer him that other teams can’t: legacy. That requires years more than AAV.
That's almost exactly what I said I'd offer X upthread a week or two ago (including option year or years based on PAs so that he can finish his career in Boston).

It's all well and good to place a value on a player and say that you're not going to overpay by going over that number. But if you keep losing out on them as a result, then it probably says you're not valuing them in accordance with the prevalent market. Sure, you'll have your principles intact, but your team will probably suck.

Just pay the man. It's not that hard. They can afford it. Correa or Turner would cost them more, and Swanson will cost almost as much, isn't as good, and doesn't have the track record (especially in Boston), so the alternatives to X are just not all that attractive.