Western Conference Finals: Minnesota Timberwolves (3) vs Dallas Mavericks (5)

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,866
That is a far different team than we’ll be playing in The Finals. Anything that team did prior to the start of March isn’t really relevant to this series. It’s been 3 full months of recency bias…..that isn’t a bias.
Disagree. They’re a team that’s playing better but their personnel hasn’t changed much since the 3/1 beatdown. Now, Gafford and Jones are starting. Does that constitute “far different” in your mind? Has their offense changed?

What is “far different” about this team? The major difference is Porzingis but the Celtics remain a bad matchup for this team, which was my point.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
31,256
I thought it was from the start of February and the Gafford / Washington trades? Regardless, our most recent matchup with them was in March.
Pretty weird time to be dissin that team, no? It was easy schedule, it was “luck” winning close games, etc etc. Been hearing it all playoffs yet here they are. If I’m Dallas I don’t like this matchup either for all the reasons mentioned but I’m sure not looking at the results of a regular season game to take them lightly the way their been playing since March or February or whenever
 
Last edited:

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,866
Pretty weird time to be dissin that team, no? It was easy schedule, it was “luck” winning close games, etc etc. Been hearing it all playoffs yet here they are.
Who is “dissin” them? We all recognize this is a good team and a formidable opponent that can certainly beat the Celtics. Luka and Kyrie are playing great. But narratives can change quickly when you face a team that can exploit your weaknesses better than your prior opponents. They’ve earned their spot but they’re underdogs for a reason. And that reason is that the Celtics have objectively been the best team in the league all year and they’ve done little to dissuade that notion in the playoffs.

I anticipate a long series because I don’t think the Celtics with an iffy KP can ice this team in 5. But that is something I hope I am horribly wrong about.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
31,956
Pretty weird time to be dissin that team, no? It was easy schedule, it was “luck” winning close games, etc etc. Been hearing it all playoffs yet here they are.
They went to 6 vs LAC basically without Kawhi. Sure anything can happen if Luka is consistently making 30 footers but BOS is a poor matchup for them.

BTW, congrats on your bet on DAL.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
31,256
Who is “dissin” them? We all recognize this is a good team and a formidable opponent that can certainly beat the Celtics. Luka and Kyrie are playing great. But narratives can change quickly when you face a team that can exploit your weaknesses better than your prior opponents. They’ve earned their spot but they’re underdogs for a reason. And that reason is that the Celtics have objectively been the best team in the league all year and they’ve done little to dissuade that notion in the playoffs.

I anticipate a long series because I don’t think the Celtics with an iffy KP can ice this team in 5. But that is something I hope I am horribly wrong about.
I’m having trouble objectively looking at this series today. The Celtics carry the majority of blowout equity and a 4-0 result wouldn’t surprise me just as being down. 2-1 wouldn’t. This has always been the team for me to fear as they are so well connected defensively and have two guys that can take over games offensively. Kidd’s schemes have been so overlooked but like you and others have said will be challenged here.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,866
I’m having trouble objectively looking at this series today. The Celtics carry the majority of blowout equity and a 4-0 result wouldn’t surprise me just as being down. 2-1 wouldn’t. This has always been the team for me to fear as they are so well connected defensively and have two guys that can take over games offensively. Kidd’s schemes have been so overlooked but like you and others have said will be challenged here.
Yeah, there is plenty of nightmare fuel with this Mavs team. I got them at +4000 because I’ll take Luka/Kyrie +4000 all day. My biggest fears are KP health, Luka/Kyrie doing to us what they did to Minny, and foul trouble (either due to superstar calls or legitimate ones). Their role players are all locked in right now.

What gives me hope is that I think the Celtics might be the perfect foil to this team. The Clippers didn’t have Kawhi. They didn’t have the guys. OKC was too young and probably a player short. Minnesota lacked secondary creators to put stress on Dallas’ defense.

I think/hope the Celtics with their playoff experience and scoring talent will be too much for Dallas but the margins will be thin. I think this will objectively be a great series. I just hope we do enough to make it memorable and it absolutely wouldn’t shock me to see Dallas win.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
21,106
Santa Monica
I.e., basically the same defense MIA used against BOS when BOS had Smart and TL on the floor. But it's much harder to do this when everyone can shoot.


I don't hear a lot of Chuck's picks but of the ones I do hear, he is so often wrong.
There's a thread for that! ;)

Defensively, Dallas just filled the paint with bodies while Luka rested on D most of the series. The lane was a no-go zone.

I'd guess the Wolves will run it back & hope AntMan continues to grow.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
31,256
Yeah, there is plenty of nightmare fuel with this Mavs team. I got them at +4000 because I’ll take Luka/Kyrie +4000 all day. My biggest fears are KP health, Luka/Kyrie doing to us what they did to Minny, and foul trouble (either due to superstar calls or legitimate ones). Their role players are all locked in right now.

What gives me hope is that I think the Celtics might be the perfect foil to this team. The Clippers didn’t have Kawhi. They didn’t have the guys. OKC was too young and probably a player short. Minnesota lacked secondary creators to put stress on Dallas’ defense.

I think/hope the Celtics with their playoff experience and scoring talent will be too much for Dallas but the margins will be thin. I think this will objectively be a great series. I just hope we do enough to make it memorable and it absolutely wouldn’t shock me to see Dallas win.
Celtics need to dictate tempo and not make this a slow walk it up type of game that plays right into Doncic and the Mavs strength. We have to get into the frontcourt while Dallas is still retreating, get their feet moving with our dribble probing and kick outs early in the shot clock. The more possessions that run the clock under :10 the better chance Dallas has in that particular game. If we can dictate this tempo than 4-0 is on the table with blowout wins in play. Both Luka and Kyrie are front runners….we have to get them out of close 4Q games when they can take over in the halfcourts that will be contested in the final :10 of the shot clock.

Edit: Just realized there is a Finals thread.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
31,956
Luka/Kyrie doing to us what they did to Minny
DAL is a lot like DEN - they ran the same play against MIN and dared them to stop it. Luka would put Gorbert or Townes in the PnR. With Gorbert, he'd either drop, which means Luka could get the defender on his back; hedge, which means that they'd just run it again; or blitz, which means that Lively was open in the middle of the floor. In every case, MIN's defense was off-kilter and they'd have one or more people running around trying to figure to whom they were supposed to rotate. And they rarely got back into position.

If MIN switched those PnRs, well we saw what Luka did to Kat and Rudy 1 on 1.

BOS is going to switch. The beauty of BOS is that every guy on BOS can guard every guy on DAL so they can stick Horford on whoever is in the corner and have either JB or JT guard the picker (if they are using Lively, PF, or DJJ) so that they can actually keep Horford out of the action if they want. But I suspect Al will get his chances to defend Luka so we'll see how that goes.

Luka is going to get his because he's an otherworldly scorer but he won't be compromising BOS's defense the way he did to MIN. Or LAC.
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
23,207
Pittsburgh, PA
Yeah, there is plenty of nightmare fuel with this Mavs team. I got them at +4000 because I’ll take Luka/Kyrie +4000 all day. My biggest fears are KP health, Luka/Kyrie doing to us what they did to Minny, and foul trouble (either due to superstar calls or legitimate ones). Their role players are all locked in right now.
Wait, you have Mavs +4000 to win the series? You're getting paid 40:1? That's incredible, where do I get some of that action? The Celtics are favorites, probably deserve to be heavy favorites, but that's crazy value.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,866
Wait, you have Mavs +4000 to win the series? You're getting paid 40:1? That's incredible, where do I get some of that action? The Celtics are favorites, probably deserve to be heavy favorites, but that's crazy value.
Ha, sorry wasn’t clear. Got this a few months ago when they hadn’t quite put it together but clearly had potential. Got Minnesota at +6500 as well last fall. I like to look for undervalued futures.
 

fairlee76

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 9, 2005
3,661
jp
Wait, you have Mavs +4000 to win the series? You're getting paid 40:1? That's incredible, where do I get some of that action? The Celtics are favorites, probably deserve to be heavy favorites, but that's crazy value.
Should be easy once you time-travel back to March!
 

InstaFace

The Ultimate One
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2016
23,207
Pittsburgh, PA
Ha, sorry wasn’t clear. Got this a few months ago when they hadn’t quite put it together but clearly had potential. Got Minnesota at +6500 as well last fall. I like to look for undervalued futures.
Ah, yes if you saw what HRB saw as of February / March, then that was (obviously, now) a great value play at the time. Nice work. Wonder if you want to lay some of that action off now, based on assessing the Finals. What price are they giving you to get out of it?
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,866
Ah, yes if you saw what HRB saw as of February / March, then that was (obviously, now) a great value play at the time. Nice work. Wonder if you want to lay some of that action off now, based on assessing the Finals. What price are they giving you to get out of it?
DK doesn’t seem to be giving a cash out option but my Celtics futures are actually more valuable (sitting on combos with Texas Rangers, Chiefs, UConn hoops, etc.) so I actually need to do more Mavericks betting to make the payouts more resulr neutral.

And since the Celtics are my team and I have a ton of emotional capital tied up in this run, I may over hedge.

I always root for my teams to win it but this team, like the 2018 Sox, is just special and I really want them to get the accompanying hardware and accolades they deserve.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
27,682
Newton
After the game Ant was asked what he could take away and learn from what the Mavs did to him. His answer was 'nuthin.'
Ant seems like he has a lot of growing up to do. How on earth does a 22 y/o athlete run out of gas for three straight games? Elite athleticism, garbage conditioning? I just don’t get it.

Also, his final stat line doesn’t show it—14-27, 4-10 3PA, 36 pts—but Kyrie “Ky” Irving was jacking up terrible shot after terrible shot early in the shot clock for long stretches of the game last night and at times seemed to single-handedly be letting the Wolves back into spitting distance.