Was the 2019 draft really that bad?

BigJay

New Member
Jul 22, 2022
86
With the recent release of Cujuste people are pointing to the 2019 being a failure and all time bad, since nothing is left for the Pats. But is it? Harris was a serviceable backup RB/fill in starter and Bailey was a pro bowl punter for a couple years. Most of the rest are serviceable rotational players away from the Pats. 9/10 of the draft picks are still in the league 4 years later. While none are with the Pats, a 90% hit rate on your picks 4 years out seems like an ok draft. Good? Far from it, but to have 90% of your picks still in the league 4 years later seems better than most.

So I took a look around the league to see how many teams' draft picks from that year are still in the league. Only 14/32 teams have more than 80% of their picks playing in the league still. League average is 76%. So the pats did significantly better than most teams. Maybe 'still in the league' is a low bar, but even using that our draft was better than most. Should you expect more than a couple good years from a couple players, while the rest are merely rotational/fill ins? Probably, but to call the draft all time bad, is a stretch, when they did better than most.

Arizona: 7/11 (64%)
Atlanta: 4/7 (57%)
Baltimore: 5/8 (63%)
Buffalo: 7/8 (88%)
Carolina: 4/7 (57%)
Bears: 3/5 (60%)
Bengals: 7/10 (70%)
Browns: 5/7 (71%)
Cowboys: 5/7 (71%)
Broncos: 6/6 (100%)
Lions: 7/9 (78%)
Packers: 5/8 (63%)
Texans: 6/7 (86%)
Colts: 8/10 (80%)

Jags: 5/7 (71%)
Chiefs: 6/6 (100%)
Raiders: 8/9 (89%)

Chargers: 5/7 (71%)
Rams: 8/8 (100%)
Dolphins: 5/6 (83%)
Vikings: 8/12 (67%)
Pats: 9/10 (90%)
Saints: 5/6 (83%)
Giants: 8/10 (80%)

Jets: 4/6 (67%)
Eagles: 3/5 (60%)
Steelers: 7/9 (78%)
49ers: 5/8 (63%)
Seahawks: 10/11 (91%)
Bucs: 7/8 ( 88%)
Titans: 5/6 (83%)

Commanders: 6/10 (60%)
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 22, 2008
36,356
In the draft, teams are generally trying to (1) maximize surplus value in their four years of control, and (2) find the occasional gem who’s worth a second contract. The number of draftees who are still in the league four years later speaks only a little to (1), and not at all to (2).

Harris is (I think) the only 2019 draftee who created any surplus value. It wasn’t a whole lot, and now he’s gone. That’s a bad draft, even if a high percentage of the also-rans hung on for a few years.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
21,332
In the draft, teams are generally trying to (1) maximize surplus value in their four years of control, and (2) find the occasional gem who’s worth a second contract. The number of draftees who are still in the league four years later speaks only a little to (1), and not at all to (2).

Harris is (I think) the only 2019 draftee who created any surplus value. It wasn’t a whole lot, and now he’s gone. That’s a bad draft, even if a high percentage of the also-rans hung on for a few years.
What if they get a compensation pick in the 2024 draft for Harris, and they use that pick to select an eventual HoF QB? I mean, not a likely event, but I'm using an extreme hypothetical to make the point that the future value of the compensation pick has to be factored in.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jun 22, 2008
36,356
What if they get a compensation pick in the 2024 draft for Harris, and they use that pick to select an eventual HoF QB? I mean, not a likely event, but I'm using an extreme hypothetical to make the point that the future value of the compensation pick has to be factored in.
You’d throw the value of that comp pick on top of the modest excess value Harris generated while he was here. While there’s a possibility that pick turns out to be hugely valuable, if you’re trying to evaluate the draft I’d probably assume a median outcome — which is not nothing, but isn’t close to enough to alter the judgment that 2019 was a bad draft. If they somehow turn that mid-round pick into a Hall of Famer, that’s to the credit of whoever makes that pick, not whoever drafted Harris in 2019.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
21,332
You’d throw the value of that comp pick on top of the modest excess value Harris generated while he was here. While there’s a possibility that pick turns out to be hugely valuable, if you’re trying to evaluate the draft I’d probably assume a median outcome — which is not nothing, but isn’t close to enough to alter the judgment that 2019 was a bad draft. If they somehow turn that mid-round pick into a Hall of Famer, that’s to the credit of whoever makes that pick, not whoever drafted Harris in 2019.
Okay, I see what you're saying: Give the 2019 drafter the credit for picking a guy who resulted in the compensation pick, but don't give him credit for the 2024 HoF QB selected with that pick because the 2019 drafter couldn't have foreseen what would happed five years later.

But I guess it comes down to what are we doing here, evaluating the 2019 drafter or the 2019 draft itself (i.e., merely what the Pats got in that draft regardless of whether it came by luck or "draft intelligence")? Because if the former, I'm with you, but if the latter, I'd argue that my hypothetical would make the 2019 draft an extremely successful draft.
 
Last edited:

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,793
Hingham, MA
Okay, I see what you're saying: Give the 2019 drafter the credit for picking a guy who resulted in the compensation pick, but don't give him credit for the 2024 HoF QB selected with that pick because the 2019 drafter couldn't have foreseen what would happed five years later.

But I guess it comes down to what are we doing here, evaluating the 2019 drafter or the 2019 draft itself (i.e., merely what the Pats got in that draft regardless of whether it came by luck or "draft intelligence")? Because if the former, I'm with you, but if the latter, I'd argue that my hypothetical would make the 2019 draft an extremely successful draft.
In general I would say that if you draft a guy who either earns a 2nd contract with the drafting team, or a 2nd contract elsewhere that results in a comp pick, is a pretty successful draft pick. There are degrees, e.g., the Easley and Malcom Brown picks - those guys (I think) got 2nd contracts but they weren't particularly good. Ditto guys like Sony Michel and Wynn. Maybe 1st round picks should be graded on a different scale. But I'd say for the 2nd round and later (especially the back half of the 2nd round, where the Pats tend to pick), if a guy plays more than 4 years it's a pretty decent pick.