Trade Deadline Approach

[chawson]

It's really hard to compare between eras in a way that seems predictive.

Soto is somehow still 24 years old. The average fastball is 2 mph faster in 2023 than it was when Stanton was 24 (in 2014). The MLB average strikeout rate is 22.7% this year, compared with 20.4% in 2014.

Convenient for this conversation, Soto and Stanton's age 22-24 seasons are very comparably productive (by wRC+). I'll throw in some other contemporaries who played that young:

Trout, 2068 PA, 169 wRC+
Pujols: 2052 PA, 169 wRC+
Harper: 1773 PA, 155 wRC+
Soto: 1769 PA, 153 wRC+
Stanton: 1643 PA, 153 wRC+
Puig: 1383 PA, 144 wRC+
Bryant: 1349 PA, 142 wRC+
Guerrero Jr.: 1842, 142 wRC+

Now the BB and K% for those guys:

Trout: 14.1 BB%, 23.2 K%
Pujols: 11.5 BB%, 9.1 K%
Harper: 16.9 BB%, 19.6 K%
Soto: 21.2 BB%, 15.7 K%
Stanton: 13.0 BB%, 27.6 K%
Puig: 9.3 BB%, 20.8 K%
Bryant: 11.3 BB%, 26.2 K%
Guerrero Jr.: 9.8 BB%, 16.2 K%

Excepting Pujols (whose age is widely contested), there's nothing comparable to Soto's plate discipline, and he's doing it in an era that has probably favored pitchers more than any other (sticky stuff, Driveline advancements, etc.)

I do think he's the target, but I don't know if now's the time. We'd have to know for sure he'd want to sign here long term, and if we know that, why not just spend the money and save the prospects.

On the other hand, his arb years are so unbelievably expensive ($23M in arb2) that he doesn't have quite as much trade value as people think.

 

[walt in maryland]

That's the main problem - Verdugo and/or Turner go and the roster is a mess defensively. I think it would have to be a three-teamer.

This is mostly a thought exercise because they're going to ask for Mayer and not budge, but I couldn't help but give it some thoughts.

They just gave Bogaerts 11 years, and the team's best SS (Kim) is playing 2B. Not sure Mayer would be their first choice. More like Bello.

 

[JM3]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1684639841626062849

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

My first thought when I heard the Soto rumors was that they’re probably just throwing it out there to see if some team wants to make them a crazy offer like the one they made to get him in the first place. That’s probably what it is, but they are also a team with a couple of players on expensive and tough-to-move contracts, most of whom are stars in their theoretical primes, and aren’t they about to lose out on some of the TV money they were expecting? So maybe they’re serious about it, and they see this as their best opportunity to retool on the fly. I’d think they’d want cheap MLB contributors rather than someone who’s years away like Mayer, but I’m often incorrect about the Padres specifically.

 

[moondog80]

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1684639841626062849

So, anyone outside of Verlander and Scherzer, who the Sox probably wouldn't want anyway because of their future commitments. (The Stroman gap could easily be bridged by the Cubs paying 3 mil or so of his salary in exchange for a slightly better return.)

 

[BigSoxFan]

My first thought when I heard the Soto rumors was that they’re probably just throwing it out there to see if some team wants to make them a crazy offer like the one they made to get him in the first place. That’s probably what it is, but they are also a team with a couple of players on expensive and tough-to-move contracts, most of whom are stars in their theoretical primes, and aren’t they about to lose out on some of the TV money they were expecting? So maybe they’re serious about it, and they see this as their best opportunity to retool on the fly. I’d think they’d want cheap MLB contributors rather than someone who’s years away like Mayer, but I’m often incorrect about the Padres specifically.

They’re currently starting Jake Cronenworth at 1B and he has been awful this year (.652 OPS) so Casas makes a whole lot of sense for them. They also just signed Cronenworth to a 7/80 extension that is looking Hosmeriffic at this point so they’ll probably try to shed that one as well.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

What would it take to get Aaron Civale? He's been very good this year and doesn't become a free agent for two more seasons.

Cleveland is not very good but is only 1.5 games out of the AL Central lead, which makes this move much less likely. But they might be interested in Paxton and/or Duvall plus something extra.

 

[Ronnie_Dobbs]

Can't imagine us giving up Paxton now that we are buyers

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

What would it take to get Aaron Civale? He's been very good this year and doesn't become a free agent for two more seasons.

Cleveland is not very good but is only 1.5 games out of the AL Central lead, which makes this move much less likely. But they might be interested in Paxton and/or Duvall plus something extra.

I think it would take way more than Paxton and/or Duvall plus something extra. Civale has been one of their best starters and he's still cheap and like you say, he has two years of control. I doubt very much they're willing to part with him now, which means they'd need to be blown away by an offer to consider it.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Yeah.

If Cleveland decides to trade* Civale after the year he's having, I'm guessing they will do it in the next off season and the return they'll be looking for will be young talent with even more years of control than Civale has left. Can't see them diluting that return with rentals for this year. Especially when the rentals don't clearly make them better than they are with Civlae for the rest of this season anyway.

Doesn't sound like a Cleveland thing to do.


*This assumes they assess that they're selling high and Civale hasn't just leveled up with a new, higher baseline level of performance. In which case they'll probably wait a year and trade him with one year of control left instead of two.

 

[NDame616]

What would it take to get Aaron Civale? He's been very good this year and doesn't become a free agent for two more seasons.

Cleveland is not very good but is only 1.5 games out of the AL Central lead, which makes this move much less likely. But they might be interested in Paxton and/or Duvall plus something extra.

If Cleveland is selling and parting ways with one of their best, young cost controlled pitchers why would they want back an oft injured 35 year old pitcher who is a FA at the end of the season, and a journeyman 35 year old OF who's hitting .260 this season, and also a FA at the end of the season?

 

[Max Power]

None of these trades make sense at the deadline. Cleveland and Seattle are right on the fringes of contention. Miami just added a reliever even though they still have a negative run differential. They're not going to make trades to blow holes in their rotation right now. They'd be great trade partners to talk to at the winter meetings, though.

 

[derekson]

They *could* give him the bag. Whether he'd choose them, tough call, although he'd have a year to think about it. I could see them doing this.

He is David Ortiz's neighbor...

 

[chrisfont9]

They’re currently starting Jake Cronenworth at 1B and he has been awful this year (.652 OPS) so Casas makes a whole lot of sense for them. They also just signed Cronenworth to a 7/80 extension that is looking Hosmeriffic at this point so they’ll probably try to shed that one as well.

Dealing Casas for Soto would make me very nervous. Obviously Soto is the superior offensive player but the gap is closing, and Soto's defense is nothing special. Service time, contract status differences... I dunno.

I guess it's probably not worth thinking about except maybe as a massive FA splash in 1.5 years. The reality is that the Padres and Sox are kinda/sorta in the same window, or not far off, so there isn't a ton of efficiency here. If the Sox want to trade for a star at some point, it will probably come at a cost of prospects who aren't about to be promoted, who would be highly valued by a rebuilding team. Otherwise you're trading guys out of the same window (next 4-5 years) to bring someone into that window. Never say no, but it's not the ideal approach.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1684967058520383498

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I am hoping Bloom does not pay a high price (future) for a rental that gets us to the second round of the playoffs. This team is many pieces away from a championship caliber team, and using some of the pieces we need for that to get one more win in this years playoff would be unwise.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I am hoping Bloom does not pay a high price (future) for a rental that gets us to the second round of the playoffs. This team is many pieces away from a championship caliber team, and using some of the pieces we need for that to get one more win in this years playoff would be unwise.

It would fly in the face of literally every move he’s made the last 4 years so I think your concern is unwarranted.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Dealing Casas for Soto would make me very nervous. Obviously Soto is the superior offensive player but the gap is closing, and Soto's defense is nothing special. Service time, contract status differences... I dunno.

I guess it's probably not worth thinking about except maybe as a massive FA splash in 1.5 years. The reality is that the Padres and Sox are kinda/sorta in the same window, or not far off, so there isn't a ton of efficiency here. If the Sox want to trade for a star at some point, it will probably come at a cost of prospects who aren't about to be promoted, who would be highly valued by a rebuilding team. Otherwise you're trading guys out of the same window (next 4-5 years) to bring someone into that window. Never say no, but it's not the ideal approach.

Yeah, not really advocating for it but trying to figure out what a deal would probably look like. My hunch is that you'd need a deal similar to the one SD gave up with 2 cost-controlled guys ready or close to contributing now followed by a couple high upside prospects. I'm no JM3 but my thoughts are that they'd ask for something like:

Casas or Bello (they'd probably start asking for both)
Rafaela/Yorke/Drohan (Bello would be off limits so thinking 1 of these 3 as replacements)
Bleis/Anthony (The James Wood)
A ball lotto ticket

That's obviously too much to give up for a like 1 1/3 of a season of a Boras client so I can't imagine Chaim would ever entertain it. If the Sox were better-positioned for 2023 postseason, I'd maybe entertain it but it's far too risky for a team that is fighting with 5-6 teams for 2 spots.

 

[pdaj]

Can't imagine us giving up Paxton now that we are buyers

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1684967058520383498

I am hoping Bloom does not pay a high price (future) for a rental that gets us to the second round of the playoffs. This team is many pieces away from a championship caliber team, and using some of the pieces we need for that to get one more win in this years playoff would be unwise.

I'm disappointed that the Red Sox have done just well enough to keep themselves in the mix. Part of this past off-season's approach seemed to be: 1) Short-term contracts to stay reasonably competitive and 2) Sell those players at the deadline for long-term assets.

If I had my way, Bloom would shop/trade Turner, Paxton, Sale, and Jansen. It's as tight and competitive of a race as ever (perfect sellers' market), and Bloom's priority has always been to build the organization with the comparable depth/talent of the Dodgers, Rays, etc.

Buying only appeases fans and seems to be a wasted opportunity in taking a step forward in achieving/sustaining long-term success.

It'd be one thing if the Red Sox had a decent shot at hardware. I just don't see it ...

 

[Sin Duda]

I'll be glad when the deadline passes. I enjoy reading about actual trades, rumored trades (if at least semi-legit), and what we got and gave up in trades, but the pure speculative trades drive me nuts.

 

[jezza1918]

I'm disappointed that the Red Sox have done just well enough to keep themselves in the mix. Part of this past off-season's approach seemed to be: 1) Short-term contracts to stay reasonably competitive and 2) Sell those players at the deadline for long-term assets.

If I had my way, Bloom would shop/trade Turner, Paxton, Sale, and Jansen. It's as tight and competitive of a race as ever (perfect sellers' market), and Bloom's priority has always been to build the organization with the comparable depth/talent of the Dodgers, Rays, etc.

Buying only appeases fans and seems to be a wasted opportunity in taking a step forward in achieving/sustaining long-term success.

It'd be one thing if the Red Sox had a decent shot at hardware. I just don't see it ...

I think your logic behind this past off-seasons approach is a lot of projection on what we as fans thought it was. But from the team's perspective given they are still reasonably competitive (and the best team in baseball the past month), along with the fact that our own farm system seems to be developing some solid long-term assets, I can see where Bloom/FO doesn't think they should sell.

 

[JM3]

Yeah, not really advocating for it but trying to figure out what a deal would probably look like. My hunch is that you'd need a deal similar to the one SD gave up with 2 cost-controlled guys ready or close to contributing now followed by a couple high upside prospects. I'm no JM3 but my thoughts are that they'd ask for something like:

Casas or Bello (they'd probably start asking for both)
Rafaela/Yorke/Drohan (Bello would be off limits so thinking 1 of these 3 as replacements)
Bleis/Anthony (The James Wood)
A ball lotto ticket

That's obviously too much to give up for a like 1 1/3 of a season of a Boras client so I can't imagine Chaim would ever entertain it. If the Sox were better-positioned for 2023 postseason, I'd maybe entertain it but it's far too risky for a team that is fighting with 5-6 teams for 2 spots.

I promise I don't claim a monopoly on fake trades

 

[chawson]

Yeah.

If Cleveland decides to trade* Civale after the year he's having, I'm guessing they will do it in the next off season and the return they'll be looking for will be young talent with even more years of control than Civale has left. Can't see them diluting that return with rentals for this year. Especially when the rentals don't clearly make them better than they are with Civlae for the rest of this season anyway.

Doesn't sound like a Cleveland thing to do.


*This assumes they assess that they're selling high and Civale hasn't just leveled up with a new, higher baseline level of performance. In which case they'll probably wait a year and trade him with one year of control left instead of two.

Civale is a nice pitcher, but I wonder if it's a new baseline. His numbers this year belie a pretty peachy schedule.

SEA, SEA, MIN, BOS, SD, OAK, MIL, CHC, KC, TEX, PIT, KC

 

[chrisfont9]

Yeah, not really advocating for it but trying to figure out what a deal would probably look like. My hunch is that you'd need a deal similar to the one SD gave up with 2 cost-controlled guys ready or close to contributing now followed by a couple high upside prospects. I'm no JM3 but my thoughts are that they'd ask for something like:

Casas or Bello (they'd probably start asking for both)
Rafaela/Yorke/Drohan (Bello would be off limits so thinking 1 of these 3 as replacements)
Bleis/Anthony (The James Wood)
A ball lotto ticket

That's obviously too much to give up for a like 1 1/3 of a season of a Boras client so I can't imagine Chaim would ever entertain it. If the Sox were better-positioned for 2023 postseason, I'd maybe entertain it but it's far too risky for a team that is fighting with 5-6 teams for 2 spots.

Very reasonable and for sure not something I can see the Sox doing.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'm disappointed that the Red Sox have done just well enough to keep themselves in the mix. Part of this past off-season's approach seemed to be: 1) Short-term contracts to stay reasonably competitive and 2) Sell those players at the deadline for long-term assets.

If I had my way, Bloom would shop/trade Turner, Paxton, Sale, and Jansen. It's as tight and competitive of a race as ever (perfect sellers' market), and Bloom's priority has always been to build the organization with the comparable depth/talent of the Dodgers, Rays, etc.

Buying only appeases fans and seems to be a wasted opportunity in taking a step forward in achieving/sustaining long-term success.

It'd be one thing if the Red Sox had a decent shot at hardware. I just don't see it ...

Sure, but we also don't see what's being offered. Some low lottery tickets? I'll stick with our (admittedly long) shot at hardware. The culture building part is not nothing, given all the turnover from the past few years. Directly or indirectly Turner is part of the long term plan.

 

[JM3]

I'm sure the offers are pretty legit. But we're playing too well to only sell. I tend to disagree that that's "unfortunate".

 

[BornToRun]

Sure, but we also don't see what's being offered. Some low lottery tickets? I'll stick with our (admittedly long) shot at hardware. The culture building part is not nothing, given all the turnover from the past few years. Directly or indirectly Turner is part of the long term plan.

Everyone’s shot at the hardware is a long shot at best. We see this conversation every year where people talk about the favorites and the probably nots while forgetting that October is a massive crapshoot. The Phillies were two wins away from the trophy and they were a joke before firing their manager mid-year and sneaking into the playoffs. The Dodgers were historically great and they got bounced in the first round.

Screw selling, this team is a hair’s breadth from a playoff spot with reason to hope they’ll be improving in the near future. I’m not saying to go all in and empty out the farm for rentals but the idea that we should be dealing away productive parts of the big league roster is ridiculous to me. Chaim should act reasonably but I want us to go for it.

 

[Max Power]

I'm sure the offers are pretty legit. But we're playing too well to only sell. I tend to disagree that that's "unfortunate".

Yeah, what a bummer that the team is interesting this year. How am I going to dream of some imaginary better team 3 years from now?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm disappointed that the Red Sox have done just well enough to keep themselves in the mix. Part of this past off-season's approach seemed to be: 1) Short-term contracts to stay reasonably competitive and 2) Sell those players at the deadline for long-term assets.

If I had my way, Bloom would shop/trade Turner, Paxton, Sale, and Jansen. It's as tight and competitive of a race as ever (perfect sellers' market), and Bloom's priority has always been to build the organization with the comparable depth/talent of the Dodgers, Rays, etc.

Buying only appeases fans and seems to be a wasted opportunity in taking a step forward in achieving/sustaining long-term success.

It'd be one thing if the Red Sox had a decent shot at hardware. I just don't see it ...

Bloom signed Turner and Duvall and Martin and Jansen because he believed they could help the 2023 (and 2024) team be competitive. Period. That they might have turned into tradable commodities if the team tanked the first half is a nice fallback option, but by no means was it the primary reason to bring those guys in. Signing them to both be competitive and to trade away mid-season is counter-intuitive. If those guys are doing well enough to be attractive to other teams, presumably that means the team should be doing fairly well also. Unless the expectation was that they'd be the only bright spots, and guys like Devers, Bello, Verdugo, etc were all going to play like ass. No way was that the expectation.

Signing free agents with the intent to trade them at the deadline is a Billy Beane special, and he usually did that knowing that the team was going nowhere anyway. The free agents he signed needed a job somewhere and he had a spot for them. It wasn't a matter of signing them to field a competitive team, it was a matter of signing them because he needed a pitcher or an outfielder or whatever anyway.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I think it would take way more than Paxton and/or Duvall plus something extra. Civale has been one of their best starters and he's still cheap and like you say, he has two years of control. I doubt very much they're willing to part with him now, which means they'd need to be blown away by an offer to consider it.

I think you're right. But, I have no idea what Cleveland is doing after that Rosario for Syndergaard trade. While I understand Rosario is approaching being a free agent and CLE has some younger middle infielders, I am baffled by swapping him for Syndergaard, who is injured, and expensive, and not that good.

 

[027Pudge]

I'm disappointed that the Red Sox have done just well enough to keep themselves in the mix. Part of this past off-season's approach seemed to be: 1) Short-term contracts to stay reasonably competitive and 2) Sell those players at the deadline for long-term assets.

If I had my way, Bloom would shop/trade Turner, Paxton, Sale, and Jansen. It's as tight and competitive of a race as ever (perfect sellers' market), and Bloom's priority has always been to build the organization with the comparable depth/talent of the Dodgers, Rays, etc.

Buying only appeases fans and seems to be a wasted opportunity in taking a step forward in achieving/sustaining long-term success.

It'd be one thing if the Red Sox had a decent shot at hardware. I just don't see it ...

Part of the maturation of the young players is also to experience what it means to be in the race. We want them to get a taste (with support from the veterans on the team) how to learn how to play in that type of scenario…so that when this new “core” is in its prime, they understand how to navigate similar scenarios in the future.

 

[LogansDad]

I'm sure the offers are pretty legit. But we're playing too well to only sell. I tend to disagree that that's "unfortunate".

Seriously. WTF is going on around here?

 

[soxhop411]

Seriously. WTF is going on around here?

Sports talk radio has poisoned the brains of people with their "hot takes"

 

[YTF]

View: https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/1684967058520383498

I believe that Turner has a player option for next season. I'm not sure what the $$$ for that looks like, but I wouldn't mind if Bloom replaced that with a deal for next season. Yep he's a bit long in the tooth, but he can cover 3 infield spots his bat has been productive and he seems to be a relatively smart player.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The tremendous growth of the minor league system over the past few months really lessens the need to move expiring contracts for prospects, in my mind. They seem to have plenty of prospect capital at this point to make a move; they need major leaguers more than they do minor leaguers. If they were to trade a Turner or Paxton (which makes no sense to me), what would they be looking for in return? Dumping players like Jansen and Martin, vital to next year, makes less sense.

This team is good now. Farm system looks good. Have prospects to improve the big league club. I’d be looking at moves of depth prospects for rentals; maybe more for players controlled longer than that. But selling? No way!

 

[BaseballJones]

This ^ seems the way to go, @Petagine in a Bottle - Trade lesser prospects (in bunches probably) for quality rentals. For a team giving up the rental, getting 2-3 quality - though maybe not elite - prospects still is a pretty good idea, as any or all of them may emerge. But it's totally palatable for the Sox to take this approach - they have tons of that kind of depth, and they can deal a bunch of them to get immediate help without creating future logjams for their up and coming stud prospects.

 

[JM3]

I believe that Turner has a player option for next season. I'm not sure what the $$$ for that looks like, but I wouldn't mind if Bloom replaced that with a deal for next season. Yep he's a bit long in the tooth, but he can cover 3 infield spots his bat has been productive and he seems to be a relatively smart player.

My understanding is that he gets $13.4m if he accepts the option... but $6.7m if he doesn't, so he's really only taking an extra $6.7m by accepting, so he won't be doing that.

A Kiké extension makes sense, though (ducks).

 

[joe dokes]

I'm disappointed that the Red Sox have done just well enough to keep themselves in the mix. Part of this past off-season's approach seemed to be: 1) Short-term contracts to stay reasonably competitive and 2) Sell those players at the deadline for long-term assets.

If I had my way, Bloom would shop/trade Turner, Paxton, Sale, and Jansen. It's as tight and competitive of a race as ever (perfect sellers' market), and Bloom's priority has always been to build the organization with the comparable depth/talent of the Dodgers, Rays, etc.

Buying only appeases fans and seems to be a wasted opportunity in taking a step forward in achieving/sustaining long-term success.

It'd be one thing if the Red Sox had a decent shot at hardware. I just don't see it ...

Your #2 is the fallback if #1 fails; not management's hope.

I just dont get this at all. The plan is/was that if *everything* went well, this is a playoff team. If nothing went well, its a 70 win team. I'd say things are going more well (Turner, Yoshida, Duran, Casas, Wong, Winck, Crawford, Paxton) than not well (Sale, Whitlock, Houck, Kluber, Hernandez). I suspect the "oh shit," fallback was to trade all those guys, because, to Bloom's credit (and you seem to acknowledge this) they have trade value. But when things have gone as well as they are going, trading all your valuable veteran commodities for a bunch of *potential* Wongs and Wincks makes no sense to me.
It is indeed a tight and competetive race. Why should the Sox voluntarily drop out of it? Its not like they have an utterly craptastic farm system which desperately needs to be restocked.

 

[chawson]

Seriously. WTF is going on around here?

It's like a new wave of Curse of the Bambino-ism. Everyone bought into the media portrayal of the Sox as mismanaged and disastrous and they're waiting for it to come true.

That said, I think we'll sell a couple parts as well as buy, possibly at the same position. I'm personally in the trade Verdugo, keep Duvall camp — who cares about the fan reaction? — but finding a deal that makes sense this week is probably easier said than done.

 

[Benj4ever]

Yeah, not really advocating for it but trying to figure out what a deal would probably look like. My hunch is that you'd need a deal similar to the one SD gave up with 2 cost-controlled guys ready or close to contributing now followed by a couple high upside prospects. I'm no JM3 but my thoughts are that they'd ask for something like:

Casas or Bello (they'd probably start asking for both)
Rafaela/Yorke/Drohan (Bello would be off limits so thinking 1 of these 3 as replacements)
Bleis/Anthony (The James Wood)
A ball lotto ticket

That's obviously too much to give up for a like 1 1/3 of a season of a Boras client so I can't imagine Chaim would ever entertain it. If the Sox were better-positioned for 2023 postseason, I'd maybe entertain it but it's far too risky for a team that is fighting with 5-6 teams for 2 spots.

I wouldn't do this without getting him to agree to a contract extension first. And with Boras...good luck with that!

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

If I had my way, Bloom would shop/trade Turner, Paxton, Sale, and Jansen. It's as tight and competitive of a race as ever (perfect sellers' market), and Bloom's priority has always been to build the organization with the comparable depth/talent of the Dodgers, Rays, etc.

Any one of those guys might get you a top-50 or so prospect, but none of them are going to get you a top 10 prospect. Nobody is trading a guy who looks like a real star for one of those guys. So what you're really getting is more depth.

But what's the value in more depth? How many lineup spots do we even have available to integrate new prospects? Yoshida and Duran look like they are anchored into the outfield for years to come. Casas and Devers hold down the corners for years. Wong looks like a quality regular under control for years. Mayer claiming one of the infield spots somewhere and Yorke probably taking the other one. Rafaela probably deserving a role somewhere. Bello, Whitlock and Houck in the rotation with a bunch of decent prospects competing for the next few slots. There will probably be a few opportunities sure but a lot of the prospects you'd get back from a sale of those guys are going to have a hard time finding a path to the majors.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I'd get the mindset in a hypothetical situation that looked a lot like last year @pdaj. That was honestly my biggest "fear" for this season, as odd as that seems.

A situation like last year where the team were "in it", but like 4 games back, beating up on bad teams but getting demolished by their division, and it was obvious they weren't close to anyone in their division, and the team WAR leaders were Chris Sale, James Paxton, Adam Duvall, Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez, Kenly Jansen, Chris Martin and Corey Kluber while Casas, Bello, Houck, Whitlock, Yoshida, Duran, Verdugo, Crawford and the like all sucked and Devers was a Met and I'd be right with you.

However, this team isn't like that at all. It's pretty much the best case reasonable scenario. Your 5 best players by bWAR are all younger (long term) players (Verdugo, Bello, Duran, Devers, Yoshida). You then have two more young players (Wong and Crawford) in the top 10, with Pivetta and a year left in the 10th spot. Turner, Jansen and Martin have done what were expected of them.

It's why I'm so strongly on board with the idea of "add something to this team". As is I don't think they'll make the playoffs, but with even making some short term, smaller adds (call it a rental 3/4ish starter and a starting middle infielder) I think they'd have a real chance to get in and make a little noise in October like the 2021 team. However, unlike the 2021 team, it'd be done with a strong long term core.

I refuse to give up hope on adding a real difference maker (with term) to the rotation, but even if that is impossible, go get some more small pieces (the SP and MI versions of Kyle Schwarber and Hansel Robles) and take a shot. If neither of those are possible, then fine, sell. But not until you've turned over every stone in the two former scenarios.

 

[YTF]

They’re currently starting Jake Cronenworth at 1B and he has been awful this year (.652 OPS) so Casas makes a whole lot of sense for them. They also just signed Cronenworth to a 7/80 extension that is looking Hosmeriffic at this point so they’ll probably try to shed that one as well.

Casas makes a whole lot of sense for Boston too. IMO for what it's going to take to land Soto for the rest of this season and next is likely much too steep. What we need to remember is that unlike in past years when we spoke of GFIN and windows potentially closing we may very well be approaching the dawn of windows opening. Might the team be better served augmenting the core that is taking shape or do we move part of that core for 1 1/3 seasons of Soto (with a pay raise likely next season), then look to replace Casas (or Duran) and then replace Soto in '25?

 

[RS2004foreever]

It's the trade deadline and you can dream, but if the Red Sox were really going for it you might try to get Soto and Snell from the Padres. Yes, I know it would cost a fortune and it would blow well beyond the luxury tax. But it would remake the team.

Realistically they need one starter.

 

[YTF]

It's the trade deadline and you can dream, but if the Red Sox were really going for it you might try to get Soto and Snell from the Padres. Yes, I know it would cost a fortune and it would blow well beyond the luxury tax. But it would remake the team.

Realistically they need one starter.

Casas and/or Duran and/Bello are likely part of that package. How much of the young core do you feel comfortable moving?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's the trade deadline and you can dream, but if the Red Sox were really going for it you might try to get Soto and Snell from the Padres. Yes, I know it would cost a fortune and it would blow well beyond the luxury tax. But it would remake the team.

Remake the team in a significant way? I'm not so sure. Soto makes the lineup deeper, no doubt. He doesn't improve the defense. It might make the defense worse depending on who he's replacing. Snell gives them another starter but it's not like he's a horse who's going to give you more innings than anyone else on the staff and save the bullpen. Between the two of them, I don't think it transforms a ~.530 team (85 win pace) to a ~.570+ team (92+ win pace). It won't take the team from 2nd/3rd wildcard to prohibitive title favorite or anything.

And that's assuming that nearly all of the trade package is prospects and not current pieces of the big league roster.

 

[cantor44]

What we need to remember is that unlike in past years when we spoke of GFIN and windows potentially closing we may very well be approaching the dawn of windows opening.

I think this is exactly right. The window is reopening with many cost controlled (or decently priced) talent in the fold and more coming. NOT the time to toss away young talent. They will be in a position to sign a high priced free agent or two now instead in the off season. In 2021, the window was closing (hence my beef that Chaim was so tepid then). I think they will now be buyers, but this time, Chaim's conservatism will be justified. Add a starter but keep the core in tact.

 

[YTF]

I think this is exactly right. The window is reopening with many cost controlled (or decently priced) talent in the fold and more coming. NOT the time to toss away young talent. They will be in a position to sign a high priced free agent or two now instead in the off season. In 2021, the window was closing (hence my beef that Chaim was so tepid then). I think they will now be buyers, but this time, Chaim's conservatism will be justified. Add a starter but keep the core in tact.

One might contend that Chaim's "conservativism" of just two seasons ago has been justified by the position the team seems to be in now.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

One might contend that Chaim's "conservativism" of just two seasons ago has been justified by the position the team seems to be in now.

SoxProspects top 10 in July 2021:

Triston Casas
Jeter Downs
Jarren Duran
Gilberto Jiminez
Tanner Houck
Connor Seabold
Thaddeus Ward
Aldo Ramirez
Brayan Bello
Nick Yorke


Ramirez was dealt for Schwarber. Odds are good that if Bloom had been more aggressive, one of Casas, Duran, Houck, or Bello might not be around now. Of course, maybe he could have turned Downs and Seabold into someone like Scherzer or Turner or Rizzo, and missed out on nothing. Personally, I'm okay with how it worked out.

 

[JM3]

Gilberto is killing it in the FCL on rehab assignment...