Tottenham 2018/19: Transfers? Who needs transfers?

coremiller

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Spurs escape with 3 points. This has been a season for late drama. Spurs scored winning/tying goals after the 80th minute against PSV, Inter, Barcelona, Burnley, Fulham, Watford, Newcastle, and Brighton; saved a late penalty against Arsenal, conceded equalizers/winners after the 80th minute at PSV, Inter, Southampton, Burnley, and Liverpool; plus there's whatever the hell happened last week at City.
 

coremiller

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It's up to 97% after Utd and Arsenal lost yesterday. But Spurs were like 99% in February after they beat Leicester, and then they took 1 point from their next five games and fell to under 50%.

Plus, after lasagnagate and the 2012 and 2016 run-in debacles, no Spurs supporter will take anything for granted.
 

Zososoxfan

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It's up to 97% after Utd and Arsenal lost yesterday. But Spurs were like 99% in February after they beat Leicester, and then they took 1 point from their next five games and fell to under 50%.

Plus, after lasagnagate and the 2012 and 2016 run-in debacles, no Spurs supporter will take anything for granted.
If they were at 99% in February, then I put little to no stock in those numbers.
 

coremiller

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If they were at 99% in February, then I put little to no stock in those numbers.
I don't think it was so crazy. On Feb 12, with 12 matches remaining, they were in third, 9 points ahead of United and 10 points ahead of Arsenal and Chelsea, with better or equivalent underlying performance numbers. The odds of being caught by two worse teams 10 points behind you are pretty low.
 

Zososoxfan

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I don't think it was so crazy. On Feb 12, with 12 matches remaining, they were in third, 9 points ahead of United and 10 points ahead of Arsenal and Chelsea, with better or equivalent underlying performance numbers. The odds of being caught by two worse teams 10 points behind you are pretty low.
I think calling anything in February with that much certainty is folly. I can't find the La Liga table by week for 2013-2014, but Barca had only dropped points in 3-4 matches through February before collapsing in late February/March. But, Atleti and Real for that matter were likely closer. This was the season that Barca and Atleti played for the title in the final match week, ahem @bosox4283 .
 

Zososoxfan

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Not that it means much but I think Pogba goes to Real this summer for sure.
I think Hazard is a done deal and my guess is that Ney/Mbappe will be tapped too. Perhaps more importantly, Real will make some shrewd moves for defense and MF that will fly under the radar. Eriksen should get the wages he wants this summer if this team finishes the season in top 4. If they make UCL final, it should be a no brainer. Son's wage demands are likely growing by the day.
 

DrewDawg

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Check my math, but with Arsenal losing today, if Spurs beat Bournemouth next Saturday they clinch CL (outside of some GD disaster).
 

Zososoxfan

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Check my math, but with Arsenal losing today, if Spurs beat Bournemouth next Saturday they clinch CL (outside of some GD disaster).
Even better, if they beat Bournemouth and earn at least a draw with the Toffees they are guaranteed to avoid 4th (UCL play-in slot).
 

DrewDawg

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That's correct--top 4 associations get first through fourth place teams into the group stage.
 

scott bankheadcase

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Check my math, but with Arsenal losing today, if Spurs beat Bournemouth next Saturday they clinch CL (outside of some GD disaster).
I don't even think GD matters for top 4. Best Arsenal can do is 72 points, a win puts spurs on 73. Chelsea could finish above them, but they'd be guaranteed top 4.
 

DrewDawg

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I don't even think GD matters for top 4. Best Arsenal can do is 72 points, a win puts spurs on 73. Chelsea could finish above them, but they'd be guaranteed top 4.
Yeah, that's right. I posted before the Chelsea/ManU draw--at the time, had ManU won, they would've got to 67, and had chance at 73.
 

Gunfighter 09

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The GD advantage:
8 over Chelsea
9 over Arsenal
16 over ManU

Thats going to hold up.

So....
6 points guarantees 3rd
4 points guarantees 3rd with a GD advantage over Chelsea if they win out
3 points guarantees 4th
2 points guarantees 4th with a GD advantage over Arsenal if they win out
1 point requires Chelsea drop 3 points and Arsenal drop 2 points (impossible to only drop 1 point in 2 matches)
0 points requires Chelsea to drop 4 points and not make up the goal differential, Arsenal to drop 2 points and not make up the goal differential, ManU to drop 2 points.

In other words, just beat Burnley this weekend.
 

Zososoxfan

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On to more important things, THE UCL SEMIS IS TODAY. Biggest question is whether Sissoko can play and if so, how well. Son is suspended due to cards which is absolutely brutal, but this team has been dead and buried this season more than once (maybe just by me), so let's see what the lads can do!
 

veritas

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Fascinated to see the lineup. They really don't match up well with Ajax right now. They don't have anyone to attack their fullbacks from wide, no one in midfield who De Jong won't eat alive (assuming Dele is in the front 3 because who else can score inside the box?), Dele their only remotely decent forward but he's a midfielder.

One thing Ajax probably hasn't seen is a team who can roll out a back 3 anywhere close to the level of Spurs, which could give Neres/Ziyech/Tadic a look they haven't seen before. I'd be thrilled with a 0-0 draw, to be honest. Then hopefully get healthy and Son back from suspension for the next game.
 

Kliq

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Fascinated to see the lineup. They really don't match up well with Ajax right now. They don't have anyone to attack their fullbacks from wide, no one in midfield who De Jong won't eat alive (assuming Dele is in the front 3 because who else can score inside the box?), Dele their only remotely decent forward but he's a midfielder.

One thing Ajax probably hasn't seen is a team who can roll out a back 3 anywhere close to the level of Spurs, which could give Neres/Ziyech/Tadic a look they haven't seen before. I'd be thrilled with a 0-0 draw, to be honest. Then hopefully get healthy and Son back from suspension for the next game.

 

coremiller

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Fascinated to see the lineup. They really don't match up well with Ajax right now. They don't have anyone to attack their fullbacks from wide, no one in midfield who De Jong won't eat alive (assuming Dele is in the front 3 because who else can score inside the box?), Dele their only remotely decent forward but he's a midfielder.

One thing Ajax probably hasn't seen is a team who can roll out a back 3 anywhere close to the level of Spurs, which could give Neres/Ziyech/Tadic a look they haven't seen before. I'd be thrilled with a 0-0 draw, to be honest. Then hopefully get healthy and Son back from suspension for the next game.
Wouldn't be shocked if Dele man-marks De Jong like he did to Jorginho in the first Chelsea game this year.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Pretty clear that they need Sissoko on the pitch to hang with Ajax (2017 me can’t believe I wrote that.)

Lorente was really worthless today, I thought. I felt like there were a couple goals there today if Son or Kane were in his spot.

I really hate how shitty major European Soccer is at dealing with head injury / concussion issues. That was awful watching Jan go through that today. They need to adopt NFL style concussion protocols immediately.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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I really hate how shitty major European Soccer is at dealing with head injury / concussion issues. That was awful watching Jan go through that today. They need to adopt NFL style concussion protocols immediately.
He's saying now that he had no concussion and nothing is broken and the doctors allowed him to go home. That seems like a complete disgrace.
 

Jimy Hendrix

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Pretty clear that they need Sissoko on the pitch to hang with Ajax (2017 me can’t believe I wrote that.)

Lorente was really worthless today, I thought. I felt like there were a couple goals there today if Son or Kane were in his spot.

I really hate how shitty major European Soccer is at dealing with head injury / concussion issues. That was awful watching Jan go through that today. They need to adopt NFL style concussion protocols immediately.
I'm mixed on Llorente. He was trash in actual counter-attacks from open play, but on the other hand it seemed that high balls into the box were also the only thing that really threatened Ajax and he was pretty handy for those.

The key is whether you think counter-attacking that is not ballsed up by Llorente is a better weapon for Ajax away than Llorente in the box off of set-pieces. I could see making that bet at least to start the game, it was frustrating seeing that Ajax high-line without Son to run behind it, he's the best player Spurs have by far to make that run (Lucas is more of a "try to run through it" kinda guy it seems, although that might be a result of them playing off Llorente, who knows?).
 

Tangled Up In Red

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Yeah it looked terrible, but it could have actually been true. He lost a lot of blood and may have swallowed a lot of blood. That could explain the nausea and fainting or whatever that was. I'm pretty skeptical though.
This seems as likely as not. Was what I'd been thinking (if the concussion absence is true).
 

DrewDawg

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So, looking ahead--a rested Son on Saturday, which should help. They secure 3 points then they are safe for CL next season and that weight is lifted, and hopefully with Son playing up top that opens things up a little more against Ajax next week.

We know Ajax is good, but they're not built to bunker, so maybe this is going to be similar to the City QF game. It's amazing that we're a win in Amsterdam away from the CL final. Based on how the group stage started, I'm good with that.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Unless it's actually true.
As someone obsessed with the NFL and MMA, I am very confident saying that the athlete’s opinion and self diagnosis is often the least accurate information about head injuries. I don’t want to see Jan on Saturday morning.
 

OilCanShotTupac

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The GD advantage:
8 over Chelsea
9 over Arsenal
16 over ManU

Thats going to hold up.

So....
6 points guarantees 3rd
4 points guarantees 3rd with a GD advantage over Chelsea if they win out
3 points guarantees 4th
2 points guarantees 4th with a GD advantage over Arsenal if they win out
1 point requires Chelsea drop 3 points and Arsenal drop 2 points (impossible to only drop 1 point in 2 matches)
0 points requires Chelsea to drop 4 points and not make up the goal differential, Arsenal to drop 2 points and not make up the goal differential, ManU to drop 2 points.

In other words, just beat Burnley this weekend.
Y'all are away to Bournemouth. Everton host Burnley. Then Spurs host the Toffees on the last day of the season.
 

Zososoxfan

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So, looking ahead--a rested Son on Saturday, which should help. They secure 3 points then they are safe for CL next season and that weight is lifted, and hopefully with Son playing up top that opens things up a little more against Ajax next week.

We know Ajax is good, but they're not built to bunker, so maybe this is going to be similar to the City QF game. It's amazing that we're a win in Amsterdam away from the CL final. Based on how the group stage started, I'm good with that.
At this point, you have to think about giving some of the key players some rest if they need it. Son just had a week off, so maybe you start him and sub him if Spurs assert control, but Eriksen, Sissoko, and others really need to be on their game for next Wednesday with the expectation that it may require ET. With a 4.5 point lead over Arse in the EPL and Chelsea with 2 very difficult fixtures remaining (and both with Thursday UEL engagements to boot), I feel pretty good about finishing top 4. If Spurs can't turn it around against Ajax next Wednesday, they can go all in against Everton with the knowledge of another EPL week of results.

tl;dr - Spurs should rest the guys that need rest for Ajax next Wednesday. Of course I'd love to sew up the top 4 finish by beating Bournemouth, but the lead in the EPL table makes me less nervous about that, and UCL should be priority.
 

DrewDawg

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As someone obsessed with the NFL and MMA, I am very confident saying that the athlete’s opinion and self diagnosis is often the least accurate information about head injuries. I don’t want to see Jan on Saturday morning.
I was under the impression that was the word from the doctors as well.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/48115198

"I wasn't involved. It was the doctor's decision," said Pochettino. "The rules and the protocols are there. Our medical staff followed the protocol.
 

Kliq

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I know I'm a massive fanboy, but fuck does it suck that Harry Kane is hurt right now. How many 1-0 or other low scoring losses have we had since he went out?
 

coremiller

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I know I'm a massive fanboy, but fuck does it suck that Harry Kane is hurt right now. How many 1-0 or other low scoring losses have we had since he went out?
The CL Final is not until June 1. You know that if Spurs manage to go through, Kane is going to go all-out to play in it even if he's not anywhere close to 100%.
 

scott bankheadcase

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I know I'm a massive fanboy, but fuck does it suck that Harry Kane is hurt right now. How many 1-0 or other low scoring losses have we had since he went out?
And then not getting to play the underrated star on your team because of some random yellows 4 games ago doesn't help the cause.
 

Gunfighter 09

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That is all great to read, I will stop being emotional. I was horrified yesterday and think scenes like that should never happen in 2019. I felt the same way with Lloris in 2015 (?) when the left him in there after getting knocked out. The guys at WDR actually had a good conversation on Jan's head injury on today's podcast.

I do think that the big 5 leagues / UCL might need the pressure of a billion dollar lawsuit like what the NFL has experienced to actually take the issue seriously.
 

Gunfighter 09

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If you like goofy Americans who's history with the team is about a decade old (just like me!) talking about soccer.