I would have agreed with this at the beginning of the year, but he had 28 K in his first 24 IP, and his May 20 start had 7 K and 1 BB in 7 IP. He had a 10.1% SwStr% through his first four starts, which would be in the top 30 in the league if he had kept it up. If he can get back to what he was doing there, that's a solid starter who is actually delivering on the good stuff that he had always shown.jk333 said:Kelly has never stuck out many batters (career 6.29 K/9, 7.7 minors) and his control is mediocre (career 3.4 bb/9). He throws hard and has good movement but has never been a dominant pitcher in the minor or major leagues. Most pitchers see their strikeout rate drop from minors to the majors, is there a subset that we'd expect an increase from? Kelly's ERA will finish lower this season than it is now but so will his strikeout rate.
Kelly's not as bad as his results have been, but he's not as good as some hoped. He's fine but at 26 with no outstanding seasons, he's not an exciting pitcher.
Toe Nash said:I would have agreed with this at the beginning of the year, but he had 28 K in his first 24 IP, and his May 20 start had 7 K and 1 BB in 7 IP. He had a 10.1% SwStr% through his first four starts, which would be in the top 30 in the league if he had kept it up. If he can get back to what he was doing there, that's a solid starter who is actually delivering on the good stuff that he had always shown.
Maybe he will never do that, but I'd like to give him more of a shot. He's still under team control for three more seasons and I'd like to keep the long-term in view -- weak AL East or no, I don't think they should go all-out for this year at the expense of next or future years.
The X Man Cometh said:If a AAA pitcher is coming up to replace Joe Kelly in the rotation, why would it be Rodriguez?
Brian Johnson has 283 innings in the Sox system under his belt, including 118 in Portland and 49 1/3 in Pawtucket. He was dominant in Portland and has been the best/most consistent pitcher on the Pawtucket staff, including his more talented teammate. He's 24 years old and he has a lot of "pitchability", meaning he has a long history of not doing what Joe Kelly just did.
Red(s)HawksFan said:
Short answer...Rodriguez is on the 40-man, Johnson is not.
In my lifetime said:I guess we haven't learned much from the Napoli turn-around. Every bad start, every bad game is followed by calls for drastic moves. The RS, albeit in a division where no team looks great, is only 2.5 games from the division lead while the traditional measurements of luck have not gone their way. The back up QB syndrome is rampant, yet the 1st play (Castillo) a recent call-up makes a mistake, the shine is off. Posters are off base claiming "Kelly is not an exciting pitcher", when he has truly elite movement and velocity. His stuff is certainly exciting and electric for a 26 yr old, although the results certainly are not consistent. If Kelly was in AAA, we would be calling for a promotion and claiming he was the savior.
Patience --- this team, while certainly not enjoying a good 7 week start is still a very good team. Yes improvements will need to be eventually made, assuming Masterson when he returns will likely be in the pen, most importantly a move for a #1/2 starter will be necessary for the RS to make a run. Kelly will likely continue to show flashes of brilliance and also stretches where he can't locate the ball, but if he stays healthy I would bet on him becoming a top of the rotation starter in the next 2-3 years.
I don't understand why Wright and Masterson are to be lumped together. Sure, Masterson has performed far worse, but Wright has a better ERA than all the other starters.The X Man Cometh said:
If you're putting someone in the rotation, it should be for Wright/Masterson. Who have performed worse so far in the aggregate and can't do what Joe did to the Yankees. And I don't want to trade any of the players it would take to get a clear upgrade.
Rudy Pemberton said:What studs? I really don't think Johnson and Rodriguez are going to get you someone like Hamels or Cueto. They might get you someone like Miley.
Sullivan from JABO, fwiw
For Cueto, you're looking at a main piece around the middle third of the top-100 prospects. For Chapman, it feels similar, although Chapman should have a bit more value. Maybe one main guy around No. 26-50, or two guys from the 51-75 tier, roughly speaking. If the Reds move Cueto and Chapman, they should get at least two quality prospects, and very possibly three, to say nothing about the peripheral talents that would also be exchanged. There are the headliners, and there are the secondary pieces, and the secondary pieces have value all their own.
Where it gets really interesting is if you can imagine a Cueto and Chapman package. On their own, neither Cueto nor Chapman would be likely to return an elite-level prospect. Teams are just too possessive and protective of those. But, bundled, the Reds could opt to concentrate value. Instead of getting two prospects individually worth $X, they could get one prospect worth $2X.... Even the Red Sox, who at one point might've been open to moving Blake Swihart, aren't a perfect fit, because now Swihart's starting.
But the Red Sox could build a package around Eduardo Rodriguez (and more). Maybe Rodriguez and Henry Owens would get the Reds' attention; maybe the Reds prefer Manuel Margot.
phenweigh said:I don't understand why Wright and Masterson are to be lumped together. Sure, Masterson has performed far worse, but Wright has a better ERA than all the other starters.
I highly doubt Swihart is calling the game.FinanceAdvice said:Although a Redsox fan overal,I am a fan of the game and enjoy watching other teams. Ive seen Hahn of the A's shut down the Tigers yesterday, DeGrom of the Mets locating with perfection, and Lynn, and Wacha also able to locate the balland many many others. SO I really cant understand why the Sox pitchers can't locate better, throw strikes in the bootm of zone, mixing up pitches, working both sides of the plate. And if that doesnt work, ADJUST. I still think we need Hamels and should trade for him. Perhaps it could be Swihart callng? Then why not Farrell or Willis call the game? Frankly last in ERA, second to last in WHIP , near the top in BB's just isnt going to get it done.
grimshaw said:Maybe we aren't overreacting. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/6295/joe-kelly
"It has to be very frustrating for the Red Sox, because the two previous (starts), it looked like Kelly had gotten some things figured out," CSNNE's Red Sox Insider Sean McAdam said. "He took a foot off the pedal, eased up a little on the velocity, and located far better after that stretch of four starts where he gave up five-plus runs every time. And then right back into that same problem (on Monday), and the issue wasn't that complicated. It was fastball command.
"...Nobody has had more difficulty with big innings than Kelly, and he showed that today."
The Sox were already contemplating bringing Rodriguez up from Triple A, McAdam explained, when Wade Miley struggled -- though he rebounded against the Angels. It seems Kelly has one more start -- at most -- to show he belongs in the Sox' rotation.
McAdam said: "He's clearly on thin ice."
I wasn't trying to compare pitchers. I did cite a few to simply pose the question that if many other pitchers can locate the ball an ge strike, not walk batters and pitch toboth sidesof the plate when needed, why cant the Sox' stating roatation?MakMan44 said:I highly doubt Swihart is calling the game.
I don't really have much to say about the rest of the post, since comparing pitchers in that manner is pretty useless IMO.
The staff's struggles precede Swihart's promotion, so it's hard to pin the problems on him.FinanceAdvice said:Perhaps it could be Swihart callng? Then why not Farrell or Willis call the game? Frankly last in ERA, second to last in WHIP , near the top in BB's just isnt going to get it done.
Because it's not that simple?FinanceAdvice said:I wasn't trying to compare pitchers. I did cite a few to simply pose the question that if many other pitchers can locate the ball an ge strike, not walk batters and pitch toboth sidesof the plate when needed, why cant the Sox' stating roatation?
E5 Yaz said:fwiw, Cueto is having an MRI done on his elbow
This is OT, but I would doubt the Red Sox would acquire a top end reliever for the privilege of paying him twice what Miller is making given their indifference for name relievers this offseason.geoduck no quahog said:
Came back clean (according to his agent)...
Anyway, Cueto remains a rental and prospect trades should be viewed in that light (which the referenced article does). I think the author makes a mistake in not including Kelly in that mix. He's better than most prospects and cost-controlled. I'll tell you what, any team gfin should salivate over a Cueto/Chapman package.
Question:
1. Would you rather have Cueto for 1/2 season (~ $5M) & Chapman for 1 1/2 seasons (~$4M + Arb in 2016...guess $10M?) in trade for Kelly-type + 2 mid-level prospects (including Rodriguez), or
AB in DC said:He's the #5 starter in the rotation right now. Used to be that a team would skip the #5 starter every now and then, if there was a day off. Whatever happened to that?
I've been on the side of the fence that takes Cueto and Chapman in a deal where the Red Sox trade Owens, perhaps Margot, and a Marrero/Guerra type inclusion, depending on what the Reds prefer. If they want ERod, I'd still do it, but they don't get both Erod and Margot in the same package for these 2. The main reason the Sox aren't likely to move on Hamels is that they'd owe a guy over 30 years old 22 plus mil for 4 seasons, and they seem very skittish about guys who have crossed that line. Even though Cueto and Chapman only have 1/2 and 1 and 1/2 years of control, they also aren't associated with longer term commitments. I think that consideration trumps the potential value of having Hamels for 4 plus seasons at that rate. The current administration seems to prefer to be flexible with contracts, especially with pitchers, and especially with pitchers over 30. If the Reds put those 2 guys on the market, I expect the Red Sox to jump at the chance to bid on them.geoduck no quahog said:
Came back clean (according to his agent)...
Anyway, Cueto remains a rental and prospect trades should be viewed in that light (which the referenced article does). I think the author makes a mistake in not including Kelly in that mix. He's better than most prospects and cost-controlled. I'll tell you what, any team gfin should salivate over a Cueto/Chapman package.
Question:
1. Would you rather have Cueto for 1/2 season (~ $5M) & Chapman for 1 1/2 seasons (~$4M + Arb in 2016...guess $10M?) in trade for Kelly-type + 2 mid-level prospects (including Rodriguez), or
2. Hamels for 4 1/2 seasons (~$100M) in trade for 2 high level prospects
In pure mathematics, option 1 costs something like 2 pitcher-seasons at ~$10M/ea + prospects/Kelly. Option 2 costs in the range of $22M/each(+ prospects/Kelly) for 4.5 pitcher-seasons
Am I making any sense?
Not an easy choice.
grimshaw said:This is OT, but I would doubt the Red Sox would acquire a top end reliever for the privilege of paying him twice what Miller is making given their indifference for name relievers this offseason.
For an organization that is starved to develop their own affordable top-of-the-rotation talent, Kelly might represent its best chance of accomplishing that end-game. But, as we sit here right now, on the cusp of the righty's seventh start of the season, there is no light visible at the end of the tunnel.
* * * *
That leads us to perhaps the key when it comes to unlocking Kelly's potential.
What has gone under the radar throughout the righty's 16-start stint with the Red Sox is how much his world changed upon leaving St. Louis. More specifically, when Kelly was ripped away from St. Louis catcher Yadier Molina an entirely different existence was thrust upon the pitcher.
Molina, you see, called all of Kelly's pitches. Now -- thanks in part to the inexperience of rookie catcher Blake Swihart -- the pitcher has been forced to rely on his own game management acumen then ever before.
"Probably recognizing hitters and pitching," he said when asked what part of living the life of a starting pitcher he has improved on the most. "When I was in St. Louis I didn't have to think. Yadier just threw out a sign and I threw it. It was great. But now I'm actually better at reading games, knowing situations, I do my own scouting and I do my own video. I did a little bit of it in St. Louis, but it's more of me trying to read and watch. My stats don't show, but I feel like I'm better at it." (Note: Kelly totaled a 2.81 ERA in his 49 games throwing to Molina.)
Back to the hijack. I do the Reds deal in a heartbeat and convert Chapman to starting (and NO he is not Daniel Bard II).jasvlm said:I've been on the side of the fence that takes Cueto and Chapman in a deal where the Red Sox trade Owens, perhaps Margot, and a Marrero/Guerra type inclusion, depending on what the Reds prefer. If they want ERod, I'd still do it, but they don't get both Erod and Margot in the same package for these 2. The main reason the Sox aren't likely to move on Hamels is that they'd owe a guy over 30 years old 22 plus mil for 4 seasons, and they seem very skittish about guys who have crossed that line. Even though Cueto and Chapman only have 1/2 and 1 and 1/2 years of control, they also aren't associated with longer term commitments. I think that consideration trumps the potential value of having Hamels for 4 plus seasons at that rate. The current administration seems to prefer to be flexible with contracts, especially with pitchers, and especially with pitchers over 30. If the Reds put those 2 guys on the market, I expect the Red Sox to jump at the chance to bid on them.
What makes you think he could succeed as a starter and won't follow Bard's path? I have followed him closely the past two years and just can't see him blowing away guys for 5+ innings straight. He isn't terribly pitch efficient and walks a lot of batters. I see him as having been converted to a reliever for a reason, like Papelbon.benhogan said:Back to the hijack. I do the Reds deal in a heartbeat and convert Chapman to starting (and NO he is not Daniel Bard II).
A rotation of Cueto, Chapman, Porcello, Buchholz, Miley and we'll see you in October.
grimshaw said:What makes you think he could succeed as a starter and won't follow Bard's path? I have followed him closely the past two years and just can't see him blowing away guys for 5+ innings straight. He isn't terribly pitch efficient and walks a lot of batters. I see him as having been converted to a reliever for a reason, like Papelbon.
jasvlm said:I've been on the side of the fence that takes Cueto and Chapman in a deal where the Red Sox trade Owens, perhaps Margot, and a Marrero/Guerra type inclusion, depending on what the Reds prefer. If they want ERod, I'd still do it, but they don't get both Erod and Margot in the same package for these 2.
Joe Kelly always seems just a tweak away from greatness. He owns one of the biggest fastballs in the game, and has decent secondary pitches that don’t deserve scorn either. His command isn’t great, but he’s no Henry Rodriguez either. Throw a little bit more of one pitch, or a little bit less of another, the thinking has gone, and we’ll finally see greatness from the guy to match his athleticism and velocity.
You might have to admit that the latest tweak, suggested publicly by his manager, makes you wonder if there’s a fatal flaw that will forever keep the 26-year-old Red Sox starter from realizing his potential. It’s already the third such tweak that either the player or the team has discussed since they acquired him late last year.
So there you have it: stealing strikes with the curve ball is what will help Joe Kelly make good on his promise. Either that, or we’ll all have to go back to the drawing board.
I appreciate the complexity of the game and the Sox' situation. I guess I'm frustrated as many and searcing for answers. Re: my comment on the walks, I was referring to the enite pitching staff which ranks 13th in AL. I should have been more specific.MakMan44 said:Because it's not that simple?
To be honest, none of the other Sox starters have a massive walk problem. Outside of his start in Oakland Miley hasn't given up more than 1 free pass in a start since April.