This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

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Ralphwiggum

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I love the people who are mad after ever loss, when it's now a good thing. We get it you don't like BB and think we should move on. You don't need to be flabbergasted each week after they lose.
I mean its fine if you think they aren’t trying to win. I don’t believe that, though. So it’s not that I am mad it is just alarming that this is happening under BB. They have an awful roster and play boring, shitty football every Sunday, and are now losing games to other awful teams. They are the worst or second worst team in the league. Losing to get a top 2 pick doesn’t really make me all warm and fuzzy for the future.
 

mcpickl

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I mean its fine if you think they aren’t trying to win. I don’t believe that, though. So it’s not that I am mad it is just alarming that this is happening under BB. They have an awful roster and play boring, shitty football every Sunday, and are now losing games to other awful teams. They are the worst or second worst team in the league. Losing to get a top 2 pick doesn’t really make me all warm and fuzzy for the future.
It kinda should if you, like pretty much everyone else, think the Patriots badly need a QB.

You gotta find those in the draft. They aren't available any other way.
 

patinorange

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It kinda should if you, like pretty much everyone else, think the Patriots badly need a QB.

You gotta find those in the draft. They aren't available any other way.
I would bet he doesn't draft a QB in the first round. If he's still around, he's going to trade down and try to upgrade the o line. He'll go after a second or third round QB and sign some veteran stiff.
 

JoeSuit

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How bad is this team? I’m not certain. They seem to mostly compete on D even with having their two best players out. The offensive line is a bit healthier so run game has been not terrible. The QB play, on the other hand, has been so awful the overall grade gets way skewed. Fix the QB position and where will they be? I think they’d be competitive. Might need a little more talent/depth (or super health) to be playoff worthy, but they have zero chance without fixing the QB.
 

mcpickl

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I would bet he doesn't draft a QB in the first round. If he's still around, he's going to trade down and try to upgrade the o line. He'll go after a second or third round QB and sign some veteran stiff.
I would gladly take that bet if they end up in a spot where one of the top QBs is available.

No matter what people think of the post-Brady era here, Belichick isn't a moron. He knows you need a top 10ish QB to win, and those are mostly found at the top of the draft.

If he's still around, and a QB they believe can develop into a top 10 guy is available, they're taking him.
 

Jettisoned

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I would bet he doesn't draft a QB in the first round. If he's still around, he's going to trade down and try to upgrade the o line. He'll go after a second or third round QB and sign some veteran stiff.
Just like when he traded down instead of picking Mac Jones in 2021.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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So, here's how I'd play it if I were Bob Kraft:

RKK hires a consultant to draw up a list of five prospective contractors whose sole assignment would be to be in charge of what to do with the first pick in the draft. Besides being smart and innovative and well-connected, a key criterion in the search would be that all candidates would have to have no prior experience working under Bill Belichick. Or be one of his children. One degree of separation (e.g. someone who coached under Saban) would be fine.

Then give the list to Belichick and tell him to pick one.

The contractors would report jointly to Belichick and Kraft. Kraft would have no input into the football decision-making, but would hear the contractor's opinions directly from the contractor. Ultimately, Bill makes the decision... but the independent contractor would have unbiased input that he and Kraft knows has to be listened to and respected.

The contractor's deal expires the day after the draft.

[EDIT: A more simple process would be to have BB hire a new head of college scouting with no pre-existing relationships, who understands he also answers to RKK. But I just don't think a full-time member of BB's coaching staff could provide truly unbiased input and know it'll get listened to seriously.]
 

BaseballJones

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Probably will need a new kicker in the 4th-5th, too.
Nah, just stick with this kid. He'll improve.

I still can't believe that in an age when you can literally get a decent kicker off the scrap heap - either a vet or a rookie - that BB has used legit picks on kickers twice in the last few years. In fact, since 2006, BB has used six picks on kickers or punters:

2006 - K Gostkowski (4th round)
2010 - P Mesko (5th round)
2019 - P Bailey (5th round) - thanks for the correction @Ferm Sheller
2020 - K Rohrwasser (5th round)
2023 - K Ryland (4th round)
2023 - P Baringer (6th round)

None were high draft picks, and of course Gostkowski turned out great, but so many of the best kickers and punters in the NFL weren't drafted at all.

In fact... 2023 NFL top ten leaders in FG %:

1. Aubrey, Dal - 100.0% - UDFA
2. Butker, KC - 100.0% - 7th round (#233)
3. Zuerlein, NYJ - 95.7% - 6th round (#171)
4. Folk, Ten - 95.5% - 6th round (#178)
5. Koo, Atl - 95.5% - UDFA
6. Santos, Chi - 95.0% - UDFA
7. Boswell, Pit - 94.7% - UDFA
8. Fairbairn, Hou - 94.7% - UDFA
9. Dicker, LAC - 94.1% - UDFA
10. Lutz, Den - 91.7% - UDFA

So 7 of the top 10 kickers in the NFL this year (by FG%) were UDFAs, and the three that were picked were 6th and 7th rounders.

Punting - 2023 NFL top ten leaders in net yards per punt:

1. Cole, LV - 46.9 - UDFA
2. Anger, Dal - 46.1 - 3rd round (#70)
3. Stonehouse, Ten, 43.9 - UDFA
4. Cooke, Jax - 43.8 - 7th round (#247)
5. Dickson, Sea - 43.7 - 5th round (#149)
6. Gillan, NYG - 43.6 - UDFA
7. Hekker, Car - 43.2 - UDFA
8. Johnston, Hou - 42.6 - UDFA
9. Wishnowsky, SF - 42.5 - 4th round (#110)
10. Bojourquez, Cle - 42.4 - UDFA

So 6 of the top 10 punters in the NFL this year were UDFAs, and two of the guys picked were by Jacksonville.

Long story short, you can pretty easily find a quality K or P as an UDFA. So WHY IN THE WORLD use a draft pick to secure one, especially when you have a bunch of other holes on the roster?
 
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Ferm Sheller

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Nah, just stick with this kid. He'll improve.

I still can't believe that in an age when you can literally get a decent kicker off the scrap heap - either a vet or a rookie - that BB has used legit picks on kickers twice in the last few years. In fact, since 2006, BB has used five picks on kickers or punters:

2006 - K Gostkowski (4th round)
2010 - P Mesko (5th round)
2020 - K Rohrwasser (5th round)
2023 - K Ryland (4th round)
2023 - P Baringer (6th round)
Jake Bailey, too.
 

ManicCompression

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So WHY IN THE WORLD use a draft pick to secure one, especially when you have a bunch of other holes on the roster?
If I had to guess, it's because Bill Belichick was never as good a talent evaluator/GM as we made him out to be and having Tom Brady covered for a lot of head-scratching decisions that look bizarre and impractical when someone much worse is the QB.
 

BaseballJones

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If I had to guess, it's because Bill Belichick was never as good a talent evaluator/GM as we made him out to be and having Tom Brady covered for a lot of head-scratching decisions that look bizarre and impractical when someone much worse is the QB.
Maybe. But he did draft and sign (as UDFAs and normal FAs) a lot of really, really, really good players over the years.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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So, here's how I'd play it if I were Bob Kraft:

RKK hires a consultant to draw up a list of five prospective contractors whose sole assignment would be to be in charge of what to do with the first pick in the draft. Besides being smart and innovative and well-connected, a key criterion in the search would be that all candidates would have to have no prior experience working under Bill Belichick. Or be one of his children. One degree of separation (e.g. someone who coached under Saban) would be fine.

Then give the list to Belichick and tell him to pick one.

The contractors would report jointly to Belichick and Kraft. Kraft would have no input into the football decision-making, but would hear the contractor's opinions directly from the contractor. Ultimately, Bill makes the decision... but the independent contractor would have unbiased input that he and Kraft knows has to be listened to and respected.

The contractor's deal expires the day after the draft.

[EDIT: A more simple process would be to have BB hire a new head of college scouting with no pre-existing relationships, who understands he also answers to RKK. But I just don't think a full-time member of BB's coaching staff could provide truly unbiased input and know it'll get listened to seriously.]
This is a lot of words for "tell BB you want him to resign rather than firing him." Not only would BB not go for RKK channeling his inner Jerah Jones nonsense, neither would most of the GMs or coaches in the NFL.
 

ManicCompression

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Maybe. But he did draft and sign (as UDFAs and normal FAs) a lot of really, really, really good players over the years.
Yep, he definitely did. He also made/makes a lot of really obviously poor decisions when it comes to roster management, such as drafting mid-round kickers and punters when the difference between them and street free agents is minimal, as you point out.
 

jsinger121

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its a catch 22 because u need to move on form bill but if u pick the wrong guy u get more and more behird
Anything is better than watching this dinosaur's product every Sunday. Don't care who the next guy is. I want them to clean the entire operation out.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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How bad is this team? I’m not certain. They seem to mostly compete on D even with having their two best players out. The offensive line is a bit healthier so run game has been not terrible. The QB play, on the other hand, has been so awful the overall grade gets way skewed. Fix the QB position and where will they be? I think they’d be competitive. Might need a little more talent/depth (or super health) to be playoff worthy, but they have zero chance without fixing the QB.
I will say it again: with league-average QB play this team is likely 7-4 and in the hunt for a playoff spot. But when your QB puts up a WAR of -4.0 he can single-handedly ruin the season.

They have been fine once Onwenu moved to RT. The plays are there to be had. But Mac can't make them.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Yep, he definitely did. He also made/makes a lot of really obviously poor decisions when it comes to roster management, such as drafting mid-round kickers and punters when the difference between them and street free agents is minimal, as you point out.
Yeah those are head scratchers that make no sense really. But on the whole, you don't do what the Pats did from 2000-2019 without making a LOT more good decisions than bad ones. But recently, it's not been as good a track record, that's for sure.
 

jsinger121

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I will say it again: with league-average QB play this team is likely 7-4 and in the hunt for a playoff spot. But when your QB puts up a WAR of -4.0 he can single-handedly ruin the season.

They have been fine once Onwenu moved to RT. The plays are there to be had. But Mac can't make them.
Neither can Zappe. The roster is a big problem and so is the coaching at this point. Blow them all out.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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This is a lot of words for "tell BB you want him to resign rather than firing him." Not only would BB not go for RKK channeling his inner Jerah Jones nonsense, neither would most of the GMs or coaches in the NFL.
Yeah, BB won't be taking that offer or any other. He will stay as long as all other things remain the same.
 

jsinger121

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It's the QB position. The roster is OK. There is talent there. But the QB drags everyone down with him.
The roster is a bottom 5 roster in the league. You overrate it by a lot. The receivers are mostly a joke, TE's pretty average, OL average to below average. There are holes everywhere. If I was starting another team I don't think there is one Patriot I want even starting a roster with outside of maybe Christian Gonzalez.
 

BaseballJones

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How bad is this team? I’m not certain. They seem to mostly compete on D even with having their two best players out. The offensive line is a bit healthier so run game has been not terrible. The QB play, on the other hand, has been so awful the overall grade gets way skewed. Fix the QB position and where will they be? I think they’d be competitive. Might need a little more talent/depth (or super health) to be playoff worthy, but they have zero chance without fixing the QB.
25-20 loss to Philly - very competitive, actually outgained Philly by 131 yards
24-17 loss to Mia - very competitive, driving for tying TD late in game and fell an inch short of converting a fourth down
15-10 win over NYJ - obviously competitive, winning the game
38-3 loss to Dal - not remotely competitive
34-0 loss to NO - not remotely competitive
21-17 loss to LV - very competitive, Parker dropped a huge bomb that could have helped them score late
29-25 win over Buf - obviously competitive, winning the game
31-17 loss to Mia - not that competitive
20-17 loss to Was - very competitive
10-6 loss to Ind - very competitive, chance to win at the end
10-7 loss to NYG - very competitive, chance to tie at the end

So of their 11 games, 8 were obviously very competitive. One wasn't very competitive, and two weren't competitive at all. So on the whole, it's not like the team hasn't been COMPETITIVE. They just find amazing ways to lose, week in and week out.
 

ManicCompression

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Yeah those are head scratchers that make no sense really. But on the whole, you don't do what the Pats did from 2000-2019 without making a LOT more good decisions than bad ones. But recently, it's not been as good a track record, that's for sure.
Right, during that time period, he probably made more good ones than bad. But he was built up to be this mastermind because he goes against the grain and those counterintuitive moves don't make as much sense when you don't have the best QB of all time.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The roster is a bottom 5 roster in the league. You overrate it by a lot. The receivers are mostly a joke, TE's pretty average, OL average to below average. There are holes everywhere. If I was starting another team I don't think there is one Patriot I want even starting a roster with outside of maybe Christian Gonzalez.
We're never going to agree on this. The talent is there, but the QB is single-handedly ruining the entire season. He's literally the worst QB I've ever seen. It's an NFL crime to keep playing him.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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So of their 11 games, 8 were obviously very competitive. One wasn't very competitive, and two weren't competitive at all. So on the whole, it's not like the team hasn't been COMPETITIVE. They just find amazing ways to lose, week in and week out.
Because the QB sucks.

I don't know why this is so difficult for people to admit. A decent QB has this team at 7-4, and that's not counting the Eagles game since they are a significantly better team. But the Pats have a QB who can't make any throws at all.

Mac didn't have a single throw longer than 10 yards today except one....an INT. He. Can't. Fucking. Play.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Right, during that time period, he probably made more good ones than bad. But he was built up to be this mastermind because he goes against the grain and those counterintuitive moves don't make as much sense when you don't have the best QB of all time.
Right. Counterintuitive moves definitely look a lot worse when they don't work out and you can't cover for them.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Because the QB sucks.

I don't know why this is so difficult for people to admit. A decent QB has this team at 7-4, and that's not counting the Eagles game since they are a significantly better team. But the Pats have a QB who can't make any throws at all.

Mac didn't have a single throw longer than 10 yards today except one....an INT. He. Can't. Fucking. Play.
I don't have any problem admitting that. And I've been one of Mac's biggest advocates ever since the 2021 draft. But he's not the answer. At all. He's regressed badly from his rookie year and has been very very bad the past two seasons. Not the answer at all.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I don't have any problem admitting that. And I've been one of Mac's biggest advocates ever since the 2021 draft. But he's not the answer. At all. He's regressed badly from his rookie year and has been very very bad the past two seasons. Not the answer at all.
If there's one reason to move on from BB is because he didn't permanently bench Mac six games ago.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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25-20 loss to Philly - very competitive, actually outgained Philly by 131 yards
24-17 loss to Mia - very competitive, driving for tying TD late in game and fell an inch short of converting a fourth down
15-10 win over NYJ - obviously competitive, winning the game
38-3 loss to Dal - not remotely competitive
34-0 loss to NO - not remotely competitive
21-17 loss to LV - very competitive, Parker dropped a huge bomb that could have helped them score late
29-25 win over Buf - obviously competitive, winning the game
31-17 loss to Mia - not that competitive
20-17 loss to Was - very competitive
10-6 loss to Ind - very competitive, chance to win at the end
10-7 loss to NYG - very competitive, chance to tie at the end

So of their 11 games, 8 were obviously very competitive. One wasn't very competitive, and two weren't competitive at all. So on the whole, it's not like the team hasn't been COMPETITIVE. They just find amazing ways to lose, week in and week out.
Isn’t that most teams? The Pats point differential (-100) is fourth worst in the league. Sure, several games they could have won! Also, could easily be 0-11.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The offense would be perfectly cromulent with a QB who was better than Hodson level.

Every single problem with this team stems from Mac. Every one. Not exaggerating for effect.
If this is true, why has the organization been unable to acquire such a player? Has such a move not been available to them? Do they think Mac is fine? Not prioritizing winning? If I were RKK, I’d be asking my coach / GM why our QB situation is the way it is.
 

jsinger121

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Isn’t that most teams? The Pats point differential (-100) is fourth worst in the league. Sure, several games they could have won! Also, could easily be 0-11.
They definitely could be 0-11 and are pretty lucky right now they aren't because that really should have been the case had Rodgers not been hurt and Buffalo didn't poop their pants.
 

jmanny24

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You're off your rocker. The offense is terrible. The QB is also terrible. When you have that combo, you're the worst team in the league.
Watching guys like Aidan O'Connell, Will Levis, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Jake Browning be at least competent today suggests a couple of things: You can find a guy anywhere in the draft, it also suggests there might be something really wrong with your college evaluation process.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Isn’t that most teams? The Pats point differential (-100) is fourth worst in the league. Sure, several games they could have won! Also, could easily be 0-11.
I was just addressing the idea that they're not even competitive. They are competitive, almost all the time. They just...lose in the end. But for the most part, the games are really close.

So if that's also true for other terrible teams, that's fine. But here's Carolina:

L, 24-10 to Atl - not competitive
L, 20-17 to NO - competitive
L, 37-27 to Sea - not competitive - it took a garbage time TD to make it "just" a 10-point loss
L, 21-13 to Min - competitive
L, 42-24 to Det - not competitive
L, 42-21 to Mia - not competitive
W, 15-13 over Hou - competitive
L, 27-13 to Ind - not competitive
L, 16-13 to Chi - competitive
L, 33-10 to Dal - not competitive
L, 17-10 to Ten - competitive

So of their 11 games, 6 of them were not competitive.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Maybe. But they both are terrible. And who chose them?

I truly don't understand the NFL salary system, but there HAD TO be some veteran they could have found who would have at least been league average, right?
I believe it’s been covered here; absolutely nothing else the org could have done.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Maybe. But they both are terrible. And who chose them?

I truly don't understand the NFL salary system, but there HAD TO be some veteran they could have found who would have at least been league average, right?
Yes of course you're right. BB chose them. The point I was addressing was SJH's contention that BB should not have played Mac the last 6 weeks. Well, his other in-house option was worse. So yeah, he could have gone outside the organization I suppose.
 

johnmd20

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I was just addressing the idea that they're not even competitive. They are competitive, almost all the time. They just...lose in the end. But for the most part, the games are really close.

So if that's also true for other terrible teams, that's fine. But here's Carolina:

L, 24-10 to Atl - not competitive
L, 20-17 to NO - competitive
L, 37-27 to Sea - not competitive - it took a garbage time TD to make it "just" a 10-point loss
L, 21-13 to Min - competitive
L, 42-24 to Det - not competitive
L, 42-21 to Mia - not competitive
W, 15-13 over Hou - competitive
L, 27-13 to Ind - not competitive
L, 16-13 to Chi - competitive
L, 33-10 to Dal - not competitive
L, 17-10 to Ten - competitive

So of their 11 games, 6 of them were not competitive.
They have the 4th worst point differential in the league.

That's an indication that this team is not competitive.

They are 2-9 and you're defending this joke. It's odd.

edit - it's especially sad you're using Carolina as your example. They are a joke, one of the worst teams in the last 10 years. When you need to use them as your example as to why the Pats are "competitive" all it proves is that the team sucks.
 

BigJimEd

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They didn't want a veteran. They didn't want Mac looking over his shoulder. It was sink or swim time. He sank like a lead balloon.
 
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