Reagor? I suppose it is mostly tied to health, practice, and team discipline. Maybe it just feels more random this year due to those factors.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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If we get at least a first round pick for it I would support this.
Also I think the not trading within your division / to your rival thing is stupid. If you think it's a good trade you should stand by it, whether you will see that player / coach twice a year or once every four years.
Both Bledsoe and Milloy were traded to the Bills with no adverse effect on the Pats. And the Pats acquired Welker from Miami, that worked out well.
Milloy was released, Welker had negotiated return since he was a restricted free agent, and all three were players, not coaches. Owners don't get to trade coaches - Bill only goes to Buffalo if he's available, wants to, and they want him.
Coach trades can happen. But it does take a willingness on Bill's part.
https://www.fanduel.com/research/theduel/how-many-nfl-coaches-have-been-traded-history-of-coach-trades-involving-draft-picks-01gr6wd1wvn4/#:~:text=Yes, it is within the,franchise they were acquired by.
I thought he resigned, then signed with the Patriots, who were forced to provide compensation after the fact.
The assumption in the reporting is that there would be a mutual parting, which would almost ensure some sort of draft compensation coming back the Patriots direction.
Don Shula
Was ticked at Colts ownership so he signed a deal with the Dolphins to be their coach. The Colts blew a gasket and were awarded some compensation.
Bill Parcells
This may be familiar to some of us. Resigned, signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Mike Holmgren
Resigned, signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Jon Gruden
An oddity. He and the team were at odds and he wanted out - hence the gigantic haul, which I believe was negotiated before he actually resigned but he went to the Bucs because he wanted to, not because the Raiders wanted him to.
Herm Edwards
This is inherently hilarious. Sort of like Gruden, he wanted out because he was buddies with Vermeil and had a good relationship with the Chiefs, so the resignation came later than usual.
Bruce Arians
"Retired", signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Sean Payton
"Retired", signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Was ticked at Colts ownership so he signed a deal with the Dolphins to be their coach. The Colts blew a gasket and were awarded some compensation.
Bill Parcells
This may be familiar to some of us. Resigned, signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Mike Holmgren
Resigned, signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Jon Gruden
An oddity. He and the team were at odds and he wanted out - hence the gigantic haul, which I believe was negotiated before he actually resigned but he went to the Bucs because he wanted to, not because the Raiders wanted him to.
Herm Edwards
This is inherently hilarious. Sort of like Gruden, he wanted out because he was buddies with Vermeil and had a good relationship with the Chiefs, so the resignation came later than usual.
Bruce Arians
"Retired", signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Sean Payton
"Retired", signed where he wanted, original team got some compensation.
Kraft isn't going to shop Bill around to the highest bidder. I think the scenario people are laying out is Bill and Robert decide it's time to part ways, but Bill wants to continue coaching. Kraft doesn't fire Bill but gives Bill permission to seek employment elsewhere. When Bill finds a landing spot, Kraft will work out compensation from the hiring team.
@cshea
I too see that as plausible. But it will be a bit of a tightrope walk. RK will want to bring in the next HC ASAP, as any candidate worth his salt will want to have this settled ASAP. And they will not want to wait around while BB shops and comp gets worked out. And I dont think they can "move on" from Bill and still get compensation due to legalities.
Maybe Mayo? With the understanding as soon as the chairs empty the job is yours.
How would we feel about Mayo?
Any Chance Vrabel becomes available?
I too see that as plausible. But it will be a bit of a tightrope walk. RK will want to bring in the next HC ASAP, as any candidate worth his salt will want to have this settled ASAP. And they will not want to wait around while BB shops and comp gets worked out. And I dont think they can "move on" from Bill and still get compensation due to legalities.
Maybe Mayo? With the understanding as soon as the chairs empty the job is yours.
How would we feel about Mayo?
Any Chance Vrabel becomes available?
I don't think it's that complicated. The mutual parting will be similar to that done between the Jets and Belichick. Kraft cannot afford to dig in his heels too deeply, but he will have some leverage. And there's nothing stopping him from hiring others while Bill finds work elsewhere.
Of course, Bill has some leverage, too, and could decide to wait out the year.
If we're canning Bill because we want someone we think can do something different and better with the offensive scheme and scouting, then Mayo doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
You're right, but that settlement still nets something in return. Fully agreed it's a trilateral discussion, not a typical trade.
I'm sure there are lots of other examples of this, but I thought this provided some interesting perspective on the Brady v Belichick discussion.
https://www.threads.net/@dogwild/post/CzukFfkpzFS/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
And here I was told Belichick was the total brains behind the NEP organization and could coach anybody up into a championship winning player.#Belifraud /FelgerBot
The irony being Felger was one of the people who actually believed that, lol.
Were you told that? Really? I mean, having a great coach definitely matters. But it's really hard to win consistently if you lose your great players. Let's see how well Cincy plays if Burrow has to miss 4 weeks. Let's see how good KC would be if Mahomes went down.
Eh, there were PLENTY of people who unironically believed for 20 years they'd contend as long as they had Bill, we don't have to rewrite history now. I mean, Joe Judge was throwing out the "coaching staff believes we could have done the same with any top 15 QB" spiel in 2020.
To be fair, they went 14-6 with Jimmy G, Cassell, and Brissett. They may well have thought they were on to something.
The idea that BB could coach up any team to at least .500 (and thus, why the Pats could never tank) was a pretty popular notion around here as recently as a few months ago.
Joe Judge was with the Giants; not sure I would take that comment at face value. Especially with Brady having moved to the NFC. He wasn’t going to come out and say “We don’t have Brady so it’s hopeless”.
Bill himself has acknowledged Brady’s talent level and contributions many times.
And the top 15 QB is an important qualifier that doesn’t apply to this Patriots team. And Kirk Cousins is proof that not all Top 15 are alike (he would be a disaster here next season).
I do think people were not expecting the offense to be this bad. Lots of players on that side of the roster are just not good.
Why not? He was on the staff for years and had just left. Why shouldn't I take "Kraft believes Brady to be god's gift but the coaching staff doesn't feel the same way" at face value?
And Kirk Cousins is a top 8 QB at worst and would make this team significantly better, because, hey, it turns out QB play is supremely important.
No, I was joking. This is the trolling I have been hearing from the lakes of my brother-in-law and friend who is a Giants fan.
As a fan, I actually think the Tampa years showed us something we didn’t really know but maybe suspected for the last decade: that Brady, yes, could largely drive the offense at will given average, or above average skill players, but that Belichick was essentially responsible for pretty much everything else, including rostering that average or above average talent.
What we’ve seen over the last few years is that absent a singular player who can do that that the model is a lot harder to sustain. I actually don’t think Belichick would disagree with that and has been maybe trying to figure out what the right model is: a different scheme, a different quarterback, etc..
This is partly why I have not been losing my mind the way some people have over the mediocrity of the last few years or even the piss poor season they’re undergoing right now. It’s also partly why I am interested in knowing whether Kraft gives Belichick the chance to dig his way out of it. My guess is that there has been a lot more meddling behind the scenes than we have heard about but that is just a guess.
We had the 11-5 Cassel season and the 3-1 suspension (with the one loss Brissett playing injured) as proof positive! But alas, small sample sets, with a much larger one since 2019.
What we do know for certain is BB can get mileage out of lower draft picks, especially on defense, but mostly because his higher draft picks at the same position bomb out of the NFL quickly. That is a worthwhile skill, but if it's offset by poor drafting and FA acquisitions on the offensive side of the ball, you get what we have today.
2008 could also be framed as "missed the playoffs with the best roster in football and the third easiest schedule with the QB Todd Haley won his division with and got a Pro-Bowl 27 TD/7 INT year out of". And then in 2016 they went 14-1 with Brady with the only loss requiring a last second goal line stand in Seattle. Those were proof positive that given a good baseline of talent Belichick's team wouldn't crater without Brady, but the difference was stark even back then, people just were mostly on the Bill > Brady train at the time and made more out of the non-Brady record than they very arguably should.
"Best roster" is doing a lot of unwarranted work. The defense was aging rapidly, and as the 2009 season showed even Brady could bring a one-dimensional Welker/Moss offense only so far. The missed the playoffs more due to a fluke of the NFL tiebreaker system, being the only 11-5 team to miss the playoffs during the entire wild card era.
I don't think most people were on the Bill>Brady train. Most fans acknowledged that Brady would not be particularly easy to replace. People here did believe that Bill would accomplish the rebuild more smoothly, especially when the team made the playoffs with a rookie Mac Jones.
Missing the playoffs with an 11-5 record isn't any sort of indictment at all given the uniqueness of that circumstance, I think it was only the second time it had ever happened.
They missed the playoffs at 11-5 due to the AFC being far and away the better conference and the AFC East specifically facing the horrific NFC West and AFC West, the two worst divisions in the sport at the time, which inflated the Dolphins record as well.
Also, the 2009 team had much less in common to 2007 than 2008 did. And the 2009 offense was 1st in the league by DVOA.
I actually predicted a bottom 5 offense in April for this team on this board, but I still thought BB could coach them up to a .500 team.
The reality is they probably are a .500 team if they don't lose their defensive backfield, Judon, White, etc. I know it's fantasy football, but I found it interesting the Pats have given up more FF points to receivers than any team in the NFL. And yet, their defense is still keeping them in these games. I think with a closer to full compliment of defensive guys, resulting in a few more turnovers, etc., they easily could be around 5-5 right now.
Edit: To be clear, Bill is the main culprit as to why this team's offense blows though.
Coaching a team to be competitive is very different than coaching a team to championships. I'm pretty sure Andy Reid wouldn't be as "good" a coach without Mahomes (or, to a lesser extent, McNabb - a 6x pro bowl QB).
If he was getting top-25 QB play he would have coached this team to at least .500.
I think the opinion is still true, with the new caveat that he can't when the QB seems to actively working against the team.
I've been annoying repetitive about this same point. With a league-average QB they'd be .500. The defense is good enough. Their QB play is 31st or so in the entire league, that's what's been killing them.
I was listening to Andrew Callahan's podcast and a mailbag question brought up a very interesting discussion regarding BB's next destination if he in fact moves on. The idea is to trade BB to the Giants for the right to swap 2024 1sts if the Giants finish with a better pick than the Pats. I added in the detail of a conditional 2025 pick. Either way, with the addition I put into the proposal, the Pats would get a 1st or a 2nd round pick for BB. Historically, every coach trade netted the trading team a 1st so that would be the goal. It depends on how many teams are in on him and how high the bidding gets. If the Giants finish with a top 2 pick, the Pats would get their opportunity to draft Williams or Maye this year and hopefully come out of next year with 2 1sts since it would be a pretty high possibility that the Giants would finish with a better record than the Pats.
Proposal
--Giants get Bill Belichick
--Patriots get the rights to a 2024 1st round pick swap and a conditional 2025 1st based on the the two teams' 2024 records. Pats get the Giants '25 1st if they finish with a worse record than the Giants in 2024 and if the Pats finish with the better record the pick reverts to a 2025 2nd.
Proposal
--Giants get Bill Belichick
--Patriots get the rights to a 2024 1st round pick swap and a conditional 2025 1st based on the the two teams' 2024 records. Pats get the Giants '25 1st if they finish with a worse record than the Giants in 2024 and if the Pats finish with the better record the pick reverts to a 2025 2nd.
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If the Pats could get the Giants' first round pick, and then the Pats end up with basically the #3 and #4 picks in this draft, that would be phenomenal. Of course it would mean losing Bill, but for a lot of folks here, that itself would be a win anyway. (not for me, but for a lot of people here)
While it is true that hiring a coach under contract with another team typically requires a first round pick, I don't see the Giants giving up a top 2 pick. They need a QB almost as badly as New England, if not more so.
There's a few things to consider here. First, we know that Bill is on good professional terms with Brian Daboll. He is not going to do anything to undermine Daboll while DB is still with the Giants. It's also quite possible that Bill's opinion of the Giants could be colored by the experiences of both Judge and Daboll.
The other thing is that there is probably only a couple of places on the east coast that Bill would move to. He's got a lot invested (both personally and financially) in his residences on Nantucket, so I don't see him moving cross country, unless he really becomes singularly focused on chasing Shula's record (something nobody really knows right now). Jets bridge is permanently burned. Eagles aren't moving on from Sirianni anytime soon, nor are the Dolphins looking beyond McDaniel. Bills are a possibility, but their roster is getting expensive real quick and windows of contention can slam shut overnight. Carolina (still rebuilding from the studs), Bears, Green Bay (QB is probably worse than Mac), Falcons, Titans, and Giants are the other eastern/northern central teams that could be looking for coaches, but unclear which ones would intrigue BB and vice versa.
BB has lost a step. He's not bad, but not as good as he once was. We make the same sorts of judgements for aging players all the time. BB was once a 5-tools coach/GM: excellent at coaching fundamentals on both sides of the ball, elite as a defensive coach, elite game-planner, elite in roster management, elite in FA acquisitions/trades and excellent at drafting for late value. I believe he is still excellent or elite at those three coaching categories, but has fallen off significantly on the GM side. If he'd accept staying as coach and allowing Kraft to hire a GM who gets final say on roster construction, I'd keep him in Foxboro forever. I doubt he will though, so one has to consider moving on.
Who is giving up a pick for a 72 year old coach?
At some point BB is going to have to retire. But maybe he can't. Perhaps he and Brady have more in common than anyone previously thought.
At some point BB is going to have to retire. But maybe he can't. Perhaps he and Brady have more in common than anyone previously thought.
Based on what? Most ways we have to measure QBs puts him at pretty solidly middle of the pack now.
Probably a number of teams that haven't had a single season of high level coaching in decades. Bill is one of the best and most successful coaches of all time, the idea that because he's 72 nobody will want him seems silly.
Possible. But as for the Giants, Daboll did coach the team to a playoff win last season. So it’s bizarre that they would be looking to move on given the dumpster fire of a roster they have. It’s much more the GM’s fault than Daboll’s.
Arians was traded with a 7th round pick for a 6th rounder
Herm Edwards was traded for a 4th
Holmgren was traded for a 2nd.
Belichick will only be traded if he wants it and he'll likely have a big say in the compensation.
While Belichick will only be "traded" (not really, just allowed to sign elsewhere for compensation) if he wants to go somewhere else, he'll have no say in the compensation. If Bill expresses an interest in quitting NE, and signing elsewhere the deal will be worked out by the owners, same at the Sean Payton one was. (Saints got a 1st, 2nd and 3rd)
The deal will be worked out by the owners but I would guess Belichick will want and have some input on the deal but maybe not
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It could be as easy as going from 2 to 3 though for the Giants then the Giants could trade down to get even more picks and get a QB plus other players. Their roster is in just as bad shape as the Pats. He may love Brian Daboll, but his affinity for the Giants has long been documented.
A place that you did not mention that may be intriguing on the East Coast for Bill is Tampa. It is not far from his home in Jupiter.
Arians was retired and came back 2 years later so I don't think that is a comp to this situation. I shouldn't have said every trade involved a 1st, but the biggest names except for one that have moved have gotten a 1st and BB is a much bigger name than any that have been traded.
When the end comes, I have a feeling Kraft that will want to move on from Belichick more than BB will want to move on from the Patriots. I don't think BB will get traded. I think they'll come to an agreement and Belichick will resign and move on instead of Kraft firing him. No payout, no trade, BB just leaves cleanly.
On which side? The owner of the new team can't involve him without breaking the rules, and I doubt Kraft is going to let Bill dictate the price.
IF it happened... Kraft would talk with Bill about where he wants to go, then he'd talk to the owner and give him a price. I doubt Kraft would be so unreasonable that it falls apart, nor the other owner so stingy it does. They both can look at past deals and find something similar. As to Bill, he's not picking his next stop based on such criteria that missing a few picks (likely one 1st) somewhere along the way is going to change his mind.
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