Oh, they're 6-2? Neat. We should trade for an average QB then and make a playoff run, since clearly going 7-2 down the stretch is a total lock with an average QB. Who should we get? Seems weird that we haven't done this yet.
This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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What if he were to pick a Gonzalez equivalent at wide receiver in the 2024 draft? I realize everyone wants to diminish the Gonzalez pick as either being "obvious" or dock Bill for the player undergoing a freak shoulder injury. But that pick matters just as much if not more so than the Strange pick.
I agree with this too. The Bears and the Browns (powerhouses!) have a long history of needing a QB TODAY so they draft that QB and let him get destroyed. OTOH, Rodgers sat behind Favre (and Love behind Rodgers, even if it looks like Love might not be that good). Mahomes was drafted when Smith was taking KC to the playoffs. Hurts was drafted when it looked like Wentz wouldn't be able to turn it around. More and more, I feel like BB and Kraft underestimated how bad Brady wanted out (his last year in NE seemed miserable) and when he left they pivoted to a highly-available Cam (who was washed up) and when that did not work out, they were left with nothing (well, other than lightly-touted 4th rounder Stidham). That is completely on BB.
Find me an average QB the Pats can trade for...
The point remains that everyone says this team is devoid of talent and yet with an average QB they beat the Eagles, Raiders, and Dolphins twice.
Both statements cannot be true, the Pats can not be a team that is devoid of talent, and yet also a team that with better QB play would have a 6-2 record.
A couple of points. One, you seem to be ranking on picks made for needs. They needed a QB, so Jones was the best option. Isn't the better analysis "is Jones a 15 pick", and if not, pick a non=QB and fill QB elsewhere? Or trade down and take him at 20.
Two, on the same vein of "BB able to see true value," does that play into the Gonzalez pick? BB traded down from 14 to 17 solely to pick up a fungible 4th. What if someone had taken Gonzalez (a consensus top 10 pick?)
Maybe Bill had info that he would continue to fall.
But maybe he didn't consider Gonzalez a "14 pick" talent (or thought CB was not a position of need) and was willing to risk him going elsewhere and picking at 17. If so, does that reflect well on his talent ranking acumen?
And if we apply the "what was the player's true value" standard (in which Gonzalez was truly only 17, not 14) how does that pan out with Strange, and not trading down a bit to get him? On that rubric, he determined Strange was a 24-pick value, not a 30/35 value.
Or is BB just picking for needs and making bad choices based on forcing picks?
Well then perhaps your statement about being a 6-2 team is the one that isn't true?
I think speculating on trade opportunities is a fool's errand. It takes someone willing to trade with you. We have very, very little of that type of information. The trade down for Gonzalez was a success. Standing pat for Mac was a success from the perspective that they didn't give up additional capital to get him. Maybe they could have traded down 3 picks for a 4th, but we have no idea. Obviously Strange was the best player on their board so they took him, whether they valued him at 25 or 40. Seems like it was a scouting problem, not a draft strategy problem (aside from the fact that 1st round guards don't provide as much surplus value as some other positions).
Okay, so do they beat the Eagles, the Dolphins at home, and the Raiders with better QB play, because we all watched those games and it sure felt they like win with a better QB. You can debate about winning yesterday if you want.
That pick is only one piece among many needed to assemble a competitive, let alone a championship, team. I think my concerns about BB's motivation and mindset are legitimate.
There has been an entire discussion on this fairly recently here on SOSH. BB's drafting record has been examined in detail and it turns out that he's good at his job.
Of COURSE there are misses. Some very big ones. But every team has misses, including some very big ones. We laud the way SF builds their team, but holy crap they traded a bushel full of picks to draft....Trey Lance. What a catastrophe. It's only worked out because they got Brock Purdy and built a good team anyway. But that Lance move - an epic, epic, epic fail. It happens.
Ah yes, but what if we carefully trim the sample to get the worst years in and the best years out, and then throw out the defensive picks.... checkmate.
They could also be 1-7 if a hail mary goes the right way. This is a fool's errand when it comes to evaluating NFL games yet we still seem to do it.
These hypotheticals are nonsense unless you can pinpoint a specific play or plays that would have flipped the script if not for a certain player and its outcome. It almost never happens in the NFL.
This team is absolute trash and the record perfectly reflects it.
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Maybe one game better, but Derek Carr to me has a lot of the same flaws as Mac only with better physical traits, having a timid passer at the position just caps your ceiling in general.
In 2014, BB the GM drafted Jimmy Garoppolo in the 2nd round, and explicitly cited Brady's age and contract status. Then in 2016 BB the GM drafted Jacoby Brissett in the 3rd round. Both picks looked really good when Brady was forced to sit for 4 games in 2016.
Of course, Brady defied time, and finally Bill was forced to choose between Garoppolo and Brady in 2017. And he undeniably made the right choice, albeit one that was going to lead to the team still needing to find a replacement in the future. And that choice of Brady was coupled with the Patriots going all in on 2018 and 2019, a choice that was universally applauded on this forum.
Still, the Pats drafted Etling in the 7th round in 2018 (a pure flyer, as any 7th round pick is), and Stidham in the 4th in 2019. But there were also few chances to draft a replacement in that period. The Pats traded most of their 2017 draft capital for more immediate needs, and Mahomes was out of reach for them anyway. They possibly could have picked Lamar Jackson in 2018, although they instead focused on immediate need and drafted Michel and Wynn. Maybe in 2019 they should have drafted Minshew instead of Stidham, but that's really going out of the way to find fault. In the 2020 draft, they probably should have drafted Jalen Hurts; fortunately, they did not draft Jordan Love, who is likely going to have an even worse career than Mac Jones. But a lot of teams passed on Hurts as well.
There just was no "easy" solution to find a replacement for Brady, no matter how many times we wishcast it otherwise. BTW, the bolded in Felger/Mazz nonsense. The team went all in and started 8-0 until the defense tired and the Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon experiments went awry.
I appreciate your efforts at fact based discussion here, but if he's been good at his job why is the team so bad? Just bad luck? Seems to me this run of poor personnel decisions is more than bad luck.
I have no idea. I think it's a fool's errand to think you can isolate a single variable in a football game and say that's the sole reason for an outcome.
Look, Mac stinks. Most of this season the offensive line has stunk (or have I imagined the whiffs). Most of this season the WRs have stunk (or have I imagined the terrible route running and constant drops). Our lead RB can't break a tackle anymore. Our TEs can't block.
It's everything. Hence, holes everywhere.
Sure, if you put Mahomes in this O they'd be better than 2-6. Geno Smith? Justin Fields? Sam Howell? Those are the "average" QBs you seem to be referencing, since they're ranked around the middle of the pack on QB rating. Those guys have us 6-2?
I don't think the bolded is correct. One does need to take into account the game situations and strategies that change based on the score.
They probably beat the Raiders if they had either a league average QB or a league average WR corps. They certainly don't beat the Dolphins yesterday even with a league average QB. The other games are coin flips, IMO.
Because it's IMPOSSIBLE to ALWAYS be good. Even the best-run teams in the NFL have bad stretches. The league is designed to tear good teams down and give bad teams an opportunity to improve.
Eh. The Antonio Brown experiment went awry after Week 2 and the Gordon experiment was done after Week 5. Brady also called himself "the most miserable 8-0 quarterback in the NFL". He was very obviously frustrated the whole year even before they started losing.
The ones with top top tier QBs don't, really. Unless said QBs are injured. Sure, there are about 3 or 4 of those in the league in a given time, it just points to the disproportionate impact of the position and how the teams that don't have that piece (even the very good ones) are always playing with the difficulty turned up.
I'm not talking about his record - hence "BB and the Patriots moving forward." I'm talking about his motivation and interest regarding selecting a draft pick as high as we're expecting, and his ability to build the team to relevancy.
If gets another shot and whiffs then what?
The loss of Brown and Gordon ended up hurting the team badly when the injuries started piling up on offense towards the end of the season; if they had either one, they probably beat the Titans in the playoffs. And Brady's quote is being taken out of context here.
I would say yes. The point I am trying to make is that the roster isn't as bad as everyone is making it out to be.
Put a good QB on the team and fix the line and this team is challenging for the division. It is not the dumpster fire everyone is making it out to be.
The QB part is obviously hard to find/do, but the line can be fixed in the offseason and the team can contend (again if you fix the QB).
I honestly do not understand this. You are saying that they had a transition plan (twice!) and then they had to update that plan when Brady did not tail off. Then in 2018 they took an absolute flier on a 7th rounder and drafted Stidham, who I don't think anyone thought was a potential franchise QB. So they had plans, but then decided to stop doing them right around the time Brady was hitting FA as an old player. How is that a good thing?
OK, we completely disagree then. I look at this offense and see dumpster fire everywhere. 3/5ths of the OL needs fixing. The WR unit is a joke outside of Bourne and maybe Douglas. The RBs are well below league average. The TEs can't block.
There were no better options via the draft in that entire period, other than perhaps Lamar Jackson in 2018. They instead focused on immediate needs and won a Super Bowl.
EDIT: Also, it was apparent as early as 2019 that the team would have lots of cap space in 2021, and that there were going to be a number of highly touted college QBs available in the 2021 draft. The only problem would be 2020, but everyone from Kraft on down wrote that season off anyway.
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They aren't by NFL standards and timelines? I get that people have wild expectations, but find the NFL team that doesn't have a bad year over 20 years? That's the nature of the league, a great GM/Coach/QB situation can extend a window, good coach/GM situations can keep the bottom from falling out for a while after the QB goes, but eventually unless you get absurdly lucky with another franchise QB (and sometimes even then) you have bad years.
Which was the proper approach at the time and was borne out by Lombardi Number 6.
I think a huge issue here is that it feels like - to the fans - that they're not even really trying to build a modern offense. And I say that as someone who was fine with letting Meyers leave because I don't think he's a difference maker either.
Of course they are trying. The issue is that Mac can't run it. Yes he's had OL issues and his WRs aren't great. But the #1 problem is and always has been Mac.
Preach. Was just about to post that. One can easily make the argument that "oh any RB could've done what he did behind that line and with Brady." The point was that Bill showed a ton of trust in a rookie RB to handle that load. Was his career overall a disappointment? Sure. YMMM on using the word "bust," but even Id allow it if you want to make that claim.
Doesn't change that it was still a good draft pick.
So then what's the proper response for the Pats here? Well, we were due for some bad luck, we suck now, it's really not our fault because it was going to happen sooner or later. I don't buy it. This has been building for a few years now, and I don't think it's just personnel. At least on the offensive end the on field coaching hasn't been good either, and special teams have been mediocre too.
I guess drafting Thornton and Strong tried to address some of the speed issues, but Juju and Parker certainly can't run. Agholor and Jonnu were fast, I guess.
It is personnel, and it's mostly the QB. The QB can't run the offense because his arm stinks and he's a nincompoop on the field. All else stems from that.
I believe that confidence on the football field is a huge part of success. The players must trust each other to carry on their assignments and thus success will follow. But the QB is by far the most important player on the field and the Pats have a QB that can't play.
Bill seems to have been fixated on bringing back Bruiser Ball for the past few seasons. Cue Cam, and then Mac for that matter. Even if Mac was playing well I think you'd be hard pressed to say he's the model of a "modern" NFL QB.
Seems like a modern NFL offense attempts to have game changing weapons all over the field. Where have we attempted that?
It's up to the owners to decide if they believe in the front office, if they do then the answer is try to make good draft picks, trades and signings. I don't see a coaching issue overall, this team has been compeitive for playoff spots without an NFL starter for a couple years, the defense has consistently been excellent when even fairly healthy. Now maybe you say "I don't trust these guys" and clean house in the FO. But otherwise, you just say "we had some misses, lets discuss how we see the plan going forward"
I think a big part of it has been QB in terms of the skill positions. The lack of good QB play turns mediocre skill positions guys into bad ones. They definitely still had plenty of misses, but it looked worse both on individual levels and aggregate because of the QB situation. In terms of the line... I think that has been far more about injury/continuity than anything else. The line looked pretty good late last year, and while they didn't make the big upgrade many hoped for, they did try to add at the edges. This year has just been a health/continuity apocalypse up front, not much you can really do when you are cycling through a dozen combinations of guys many of whom are playing well under 100%.
Mac isn't the exact modern QB I agree, but given the options taking "Could be Kirk Cousins" wasn't crazy, Cousins has run excellent NFL offenses for years. As for weapons... not a ton of bites at the apple there, but they prioritized speed in Thornton, Agholor. They also targeted YAC guys... who promptly fell off a YAC cliff when they got here (Juju, Bourne, Jonnu) etc. Game changing weapons are awesome, but unless you're picking top 7 or so or are willing to trade multiple 1sts and give guys huge contracts you're not getting one. Oh sometimes a guy gets misevaluated (Jefferson) but most of those game breakers were high picks and/or huge trades.
What players (thereby diminishing this awful roster even more) are we moving on from to shed about $30mil in salary to be able to afford Derek Carr over Mac, is the second part of the question.
Then what's the team's record.
I guess my consternation is that we're now in year 4 post-Brady and I still don't see what Bill is building towards with this O. Seems like we're just careening from trying to plug one hole to another.
I just don't see any coherent strategy here. Seems like we're just doing reactionary stuff. But maybe I'm wrong.
Good point, I looked up the Carr contract-
At overthecap.com, they have Carr as a 7M cap hit this year and 35 next. Let’s assume the Patriots wouldn’t backload a contract quite so much and he signed here at a cap hit of 20/yr for the next 2 seasons.
To get 20M on this current roster, I’d be willing to release/not sign Juju and also release either Gesicki or Henry.
They need better skill players, but I think what we’ve seen over the past 3 years is that you have to draft those players as the best aren’t available as free agents. See how Juju/Agohlor/Parker/Henry have worked out; each is fine in isolation but they stink as a group. That said, in evaluating Mac, I think they’d have more wins with Carr than they do with Mac. Not that I want to be paying Derek Carr his contract.
To me it seems like the first year they had no money, so Bill and Josh said... let's see what Cam has left and figure how we might use a running QB if we get one.
Then they drafted Mac, and they tried to surround him with a fully built for cash offense set to maximize a rookie QB... signed the best deep threat available, signed the top TE available, loaded up on YAC guys.... it didn't work amazing but it wasn't terrible. Then Josh left and Bill didn't have a good plan for a replacement... throw that year out.
This year they brought in a real NFL coordinator (a pretty good one), they tried to go back to what worked Mac's rookie year, with some tweaks... O-line imploded, deep threat they drafted was hurt/ineffective. Dependable YAC guy they brought in has been terrible... QB has been bad.
The biggest thing is... they have not much on the books next year. If you're going to re-set QB this would be the best time to do it, and then you can build to that guy's strengths. Now, there could be some real concern whether you want BOB and Bellichick picking offensive players, and whether BOB scheme is explosive enough without a top QB (though he made Watson look way better than he was). But the last few years was about seeing what worked with 2 very different QBs, and staying flexible with short term deals.
You keep Mac for 2024. This draft, you draft another QB that you PLAN on being your next starting QB. But you give him a year to learn and grow into the position, unless he absolutely blows you away in camp. So this means either getting Williams or Maye at the top of the draft and then drafting a WR and OL later, OR you draft Harrison with your top pick and then get a QB later (so a guy who is NOT either Williams or Maye but who still has a chance at being a legit NFL QB like Penix maybe). That has to be the path forward.
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