The way too early January 2023 Transfer Window Thread

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Pretty much everyone is reporting that Mbappe is unhappy with PSG and is pushing for a move in the January transfer window after just resigning a contract to stay at PSG five months ago. He's expressed his preference (continuing) to be Real Madrid but that he's open to other clubs. At about 1M euros per week, it's unclear to me who could actually afford him or if he'll have to take a reduction in wages. You'd have to think Real, Liverpool, Chelsea and Barca are the favorites were he to actually leave. One impact of him leaving in January for both PSG and his acquiring club would be that he's ineligible for the Champions League being cup tied to PSG.

Unless suppressed by his wages, this would certainly be the largest January transfer of all time, which is what may make it unlikely to happen. The next two came from Liverpool in 2018 shipping Coutinho out for 108GBP and bringing in Van Dijk for 75GBP.


Cristiano Ronaldo is also looking to make a move in January and is apparently desperate for as much playing time as possible for the remainder of his career. A question of whether he'll stay in Europe or make a big move over to MLS, especially to Beckham's Miami team.

We'll also have the additional disruption and impact of the World Cup just before the break this year. Typically there's always 2 or 3 performances by individuals that launches them onto the world stage and into the high 8 or 9 figure transfer conversations seemingly out of nowhere or will the frequent playing time lead to an injury and necessary replacement of a star player on team competing for their league or cup.

 

[pedro1918]

One impact of him leaving in January for both PSG and his acquiring club would be that he's ineligible for the Champions League being cup tied to PSG.

Is this a thing again? I think they did away with that and he can play.

 

[67YAZ]

Is this a thing again? I think they did away with that and he can play.

They killed it back in 2018.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

No way does Mbappe leave PSG in January.

Not sure about Ronaldo. It's still hard to see a market for him but the financial commitment is smaller for just half a year and a CL team with injury issues at CF could plausibly do it.

 

[Kliq]

Mbappe's contract does feel somewhat like it is finally the deal too big to be moved. Neymar actually might already have the contract, but it's hard to see Mbappe being moved to another club at his wages, plus meeting the huge transfer sum. Especially with the Spanish sides in financial disarray and Abramovich no longer at Chelsea. City could probably afford him, but they don't really need him. United perhaps. He's too expensive for anybody else.

 

[67YAZ]

Watch Newcastle. Maybe not Mbappe’s preferred destination, but you know the Saudis would love to steal one of the best players on the planet out from under the Qataris, especially in the wake of the WC in Qatar.

 

[Zososoxfan]

Watch Newcastle. Maybe not Mbappe’s preferred destination, but you know the Saudis would love to steal one of the best players on the planet out from under the Qataris, especially in the wake of the WC in Qatar.

Good shout, but couldn't PSG just block that move? Or does France have mandatory release clauses in employment contracts like Spain?

 

[67YAZ]

Good shout, but couldn't PSG just block that move? Or does France have mandatory release clauses in employment contracts like Spain?

For sure, but I'm thinking more along the lines of back-channel communications where Newcastle throw huge contract figures at him, point to ludicrous spokesperson side deals he could sign with the crown, explain all the squad and coaching upgrades they have planned, etc. All to unsettle Mbappe and get him to push for a move to Newcastle.

Maybe that works? Or maybe Mbappe uses it as leverage to get to Real Madrid, who at least isn't a geopolitical rival...

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Is this a thing again? I think they did away with that and he can play.

They killed it back in 2018.

But who's paying attention to the rules anyway? Oops

 

[Blundatola]

Watch Newcastle. Maybe not Mbappe’s preferred destination, but you know the Saudis would love to steal one of the best players on the planet out from under the Qataris, especially in the wake of the WC in Qatar.

Thanks. I’m sick and needed a good laugh.

First, Mbappé would never come (Il fait pas chaud là-bas). Second, the Newcastle board are taking financial fair play seriously and don’t have anywhere near the commercial revenue to be able to pull off a deal of this size. Third, and least importantly, he doesn’t match the character profile they are looking for (though they would certainly ignore that if the other two issues didn’t exist).

 

[SocrManiac]

Most of Juventus will probably put in a transfer request with Agnelli reaffirming his belief in Allegri.

 

[OCST]

We'll also have the additional disruption and impact of the World Cup just before the break this year. Typically there's always 2 or 3 performances by individuals that launches them onto the world stage and into the high 8 or 9 figure transfer conversations seemingly out of nowhere

is that James Rodriguez’ music?

dude parlayed a nice run to the WC QF (5 games?) into a career of being a very good, useful but never indispensable player, but at insanely inflated wages.

 

[Zososoxfan]

is that James Rodriguez’ music?

dude parlayed a nice run to the WC QF (5 games?) into a career of being a very good, useful but never indispensable player, but at insanely inflated wages.

Arshavin milked Arsenal for years based on a good WC, on home soil IIRC.

 

[Kliq]

I think some people might not understand just how much Mbappe is making. According to FBRef, Mbappe is making around $1.7 million per week. Ronaldo, the EPL's highest paid player, is making around $580,000 per week. Haaland is making around $420,000 per week. Mo Salah, on his new contract is making $390,000 per week. No one player is really worth that amount of money; you could fill out most of a starting XI of world class players for the price of just Mbappe. If it wasn't for the vanity project that is PSG, nobody would ever make that much money.

 

[blueguitar322]

Arshavin milked Arsenal for years based on a good WC, on home soil IIRC.

It was worth it, just for this clip from Special 1 TV back in the day:
View: https://youtu.be/uPPT_CwIBwA?t=128

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I think some people might not understand just how much Mbappe is making. According to FBRef, Mbappe is making around $1.7 million per week. Ronaldo, the EPL's highest paid player, is making around $580,000 per week. Haaland is making around $420,000 per week. Mo Salah, on his new contract is making $390,000 per week. No one player is really worth that amount of money; you could fill out most of a starting XI of world class players for the price of just Mbappe. If it wasn't for the vanity project that is PSG, nobody would ever make that much money.

Not to mention PSG don’t even have his image rights .. so he can (and has ) refuse to endorse club sponsors

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I think some people might not understand just how much Mbappe is making. According to FBRef, Mbappe is making around $1.7 million per week. Ronaldo, the EPL's highest paid player, is making around $580,000 per week. Haaland is making around $420,000 per week. Mo Salah, on his new contract is making $390,000 per week. No one player is really worth that amount of money; you could fill out most of a starting XI of world class players for the price of just Mbappe. If it wasn't for the vanity project that is PSG, nobody would ever make that much money.

I would not take any of these FBRef numbers as particularly trustworthy. I have no doubt Mbappe is making the most money in football and quite possibly even more than $1.7 million per week over the course of his deal, but its not really clear how much any of these guys are truly making as its all based on media reports with unreliable sourcing and that often don't include bonuses, image rights, etc.

Haaland, for example, was widely reported to be making no more than other top earners at City when he signed his deal (this is probably where that $420,000 per week figure comes from) and I'm sure that was reporting City liked to have out there. But recent reports (which may or may not be trustworthy) now claim that he is actually making close to a million pounds per week once you factor in easily obtainable performance bonuses. Not Mbappe level but potentially a lot closer than originally thought.

 

[67YAZ]

is that James Rodriguez’ music?

dude parlayed a nice run to the WC QF (5 games?) into a career of being a very good, useful but never indispensable player, but at insanely inflated wages.

WC James was an all-time great player. I'm bummed we won't get to see him this go-round.

Should we throw out some Arshavin Award predictions for the player who will blow up the WC and get a massive transfer?

Cody Gakpo, Netherlands/PSV - He's in great form right now (9 goals & 6 assists in 9 Eredivisie matches) and should head to Qatar with a ton of confidence. There were some mega-clubs sniffing around this summer, but he's going to show out at the WC and move in January for an ungodly fee.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

WC James was an all-time great player. I'm bummed we won't get to see him this go-round.

Should we throw out some Arshavin Award predictions for the player who will blow up the WC and get a massive transfer?

Cody Gakpo, Netherlands/PSV - He's in great form right now (9 goals & 6 assists in 9 Eredivisie matches) and should head to Qatar with a ton of confidence. There were some mega-clubs sniffing around this summer, but he's going to show out at the WC and move in January for an ungodly fee.

I think its hard to predict January transfers because even with a big world cup, a lot of clubs just won't be interested in selling then. Rumors are flying about Gakpo already though, so I could see him moving for a big fee if he does well in the tournament.

Three other under-the-radar players that could bust out under the right circumstances:

Nico Williams - The younger brother of Inaki Williams, who also plays for Bilbao, he looks like a serious talent having a breakout season and just debuted with the Spanish side last international break. Spain really needs a dynamic, athletic forward like him but will Luis Enrique roll the dice on such a young player in a big tournament (especially given that he is already building the side around Pedri and Gavi)?

Enzo Fernandez - Was just posting about him in the CL thread. Not clear how much he will play for Argentina. However he does in the World Cup, I see Benfica selling him for a big fee next summer.

Andreas Skov Olsen - Danish RW who probably doesn't the ceiling of those two other guys but is still highly rated and is very likely to start at RW for a team that could do some damage. Has been a central part of Club Brugge's successful CL campaign so far.

 

[dirtynine]

Brighton signed the next Messi! Chelsea will be coming for him shortly, I’m sure.

 

[DJnVa]

Lots of talk that the Spurs have started talking with Atalanta regarding Malinovskyi

 

[Cellar-Door]

Both England and Brazil based sources say West Ham is signing Luizao a 20 year old defender for Sao Paulo whose contract will run out in January.
View: https://twitter.com/gazetaesportiva/status/1600164412740050944


Not sure how he gets a work permit, so wonder if they'll loan him back out.

 

[67YAZ]

Chelsea swoop for the Ivorian striker Fofana who is lighting it up in Norway.

And Madrid snaps up another teenage Brazilian, Endrick, who won't head to Spain for another couple years. This has been a productive pipeline for them.

 

[Kliq]

The hype around Endrick is huge.

 

[67YAZ]

The hype around Endrick is huge.

They dropped €60m on a 16 year old!

 

[Kliq]

Yeah, he will be in Brazil for a few more years, but he has already played for first-place Palmeiras extensively as a 15 year old, and has been consistently dominant in playing with older players through different youth competitions, including dismantling England in a u16 game earlier this year. He's drawing comparisons to Vini Jr. and Neymar, and his trajectory is obviously similar to Vinicius.

 

[OCST]

Chelsea swoop for the Ivorian striker Fofana who is lighting it up in Norway.

And Madrid snaps up another teenage Brazilian, Endrick, who won't head to Spain for another couple years. This has been a productive pipeline for them.

seems like these kids all dream of playing for RM and not so much Chelsea or Bayern or Juve.

 

[SocrManiac]

It’s good to see Chelsea filling that void in attack.

 

[rguilmar]

WC James was an all-time great player. I'm bummed we won't get to see him this go-round.

Should we throw out some Arshavin Award predictions for the player who will blow up the WC and get a massive transfer?

Cody Gakpo, Netherlands/PSV - He's in great form right now (9 goals & 6 assists in 9 Eredivisie matches) and should head to Qatar with a ton of confidence. There were some mega-clubs sniffing around this summer, but he's going to show out at the WC and move in January for an ungodly fee.

This prediction is aging nicely.

 

[the1andonly3003]

this is fun: Unai Emery wants to rid of Coutinho and Emi
View: https://twitter.com/BBCSport/status/1606749050249924610?s=20&t=MEX38Uxp8KJF3o5pHrn02w

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

I mean, he's wasted on a team that will never be in a competition that necessitates penalty kicks. Might as well get him into a CL squad.

 

[OCST]

Mac Allister is going to attract a lot of interest. Well deserved but definitely the beneficiary of WC bias. He’s been solid and worthy of a look from CL level clubs based on his play at Brighton but only just, almost every PL club has a couple of guys of that stripe. He was excellent in the WC but those 7 games in a tournament of part time teams… how much should it factor?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Mac Allister is going to attract a lot of interest. Well deserved but definitely the beneficiary of WC bias. He’s been solid and worthy of a look from CL level clubs based on his play at Brighton but only just, almost every PL club has a couple of guys of that stripe. He was excellent in the WC but those 7 games in a tournament of part time teams… how much should it factor?

It probably will - all it takes is one stupid owner desperate to impress their supporter base with an incoming WC star. Maybe it bumps his transfer fee from - what - £40m to £50m ? (Just making up the numbers as I have no idea as to his value)

As you say, he’s a good player. He will be an asset wherever he goes.

 

[the1andonly3003]

It probably will - all it takes is one stupid owner desperate to impress their supporter base with an incoming WC star. Maybe it bumps his transfer fee from - what - £40m to £50m ? (Just making up the numbers as I have no idea as to his value)

As you say, he’s a good player. He will be an asset wherever he goes.

so....Chelsea....
hehehe

 

[67YAZ]

Matheus Cunha from Atlético to Wolves got £44m. Technically a loan & obligation to buy…but wow.

 

[OCST]

That’s a lot of money. I like the player but that’s the kind of spending that can kill a club (ask me how I know).

Feels a little like Villa and Coutinho.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Cody Gapko to Liverpool for £35-45m

View: https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1607502559010242561?s=20&t=TnKPhxQ0Zzl__8sFwTo3BA

 

[Tangled Up In Red]

Cody Gapko to Liverpool for £35-45m

Seems cheap. Transfermarkt (with grain of salt) has his market value at €60m -- and they're usually under reality.
Big club discount?

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Seems cheap. Transfermarkt (with grain of salt) has his market value at €60m -- and they're usually under reality.
Big club discount?

The terms were not being publically announced , But PSV says it’s a club record transfer. The 35-45 range was quoted by both The Times (Paul Joyce) and the Echo .. (and the Athletic) … maybe United was dithering , as has been their want of late.

 

[teddykgb]

At that kind of price the player must have had a strong preference. Getting it done right away is incredibly beneficial teams always leave this stuff until late Jan while they haggle over fees and it burns a month of impact

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

At that kind of price the player must have had a strong preference. Getting it done right away is incredibly beneficial teams always leave this stuff until late Jan while they haggle over fees and it burns a month of impact

Not to mention in complete secrecy … only your garden variety transfer rumour before this.

 

[the1andonly3003]

Cody Gapko to Liverpool for £35-45m

View: https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1607502559010242561?s=20&t=TnKPhxQ0Zzl__8sFwTo3BA

is this where Xander Bogaerts savings went? *ducks*

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

is this where Xander Bogaerts savings went? *ducks*

Wow, ManU got completely jobbed on the Gapko transfer. Liverpool swoops in again at the last minute.

 

[teddykgb]

Not to mention in complete secrecy … only your garden variety transfer rumour before this.

Thinking about it more there are in my view three options

1) United were backing out or at least PSV thought they’d be stuck negotiating with Liverpool only and they panicked

2)When Gakpo heard of Liverpools interests he basically closed the United door entirely and left PSV with no negotiating leverage

3) PSV have an idiotic board that doesn’t know what it is doing. They had 2 rival Premier League rivals poised to battle for a player and turned it into a fee before January that the entire world feels is low especially after what United paid for Antony which should have set the market to some extent. Even if PSV wanted to move onto another target quickly they left presumably a good amount on the table for speed and I don’t see how that helps them

 

[Zomp]

Howard Nurse is reporting that we weren't in for him in January.

If you recall, he was our back up option if Antony didn't come in the summer.

I mean it may be the club doing damage control. Lord knows we aren't exactly solid in our transfer market strategy, but if I'm trying to be optimistic about what happened I could see Ten Hag telling the board he no longer wants a player who to *my* untrained eye looks like another Marcus Rashford/Anthony Martial.

We have plenty of LW/ST hybrids. Now that Rashford remembered how to play I'm not sure if Gapko is worth the gamble that he could use his big frame to transition to a Premier League #9. He may...we'll see.


If United are going to go stop gap at the striker position, I'd much rather Depay than Felix on loan then try to take advantage of Juve's position and go for Vlahovic in the summer.

 

[teddykgb]

Yeah I could see United deciding to focus on a pure ST and cooling off enough for PSV to sort of panic sell which is what it looks like here.

I have no idea if Gakpo will translate to the prem. Liverpools system gets these players in so much space that it’s hard to imagine outright flopping but the eredivisie to prem conversions lately have all been pretty rough. To Gakpos credit he was really tearing that league apart. In the end though it feels like Liverpool got a solid 15-20 million off what I would have expected them to pay at the bare minimum and you never see deals like that anymore when there aren’t release clauses.

 

[67YAZ]

Whatever happened in the Everton halls of power, Marcel Brands knows exactly what he’s doing as PSV director. The fee is surprising given that there’s no apparent bump for the WC performance. I interpret this as Brands didn’t see another real offer forthcoming and he wants spend this money in January to reshape the squad.

PSV has several excellent options on the right, starting with 19yo Xavi Simons (remember the name) and a couple veterans as well as 19yo Johan Bakayoko backing up trusty vet Luuk de Jong in the middle. They now really need a left winger. They also have leaky backline for a team with their aspirations, so CBs and FBs are on the shopping list. The midfield is held down by Sangare, who continues to dominate the league, and Richie Ledezma, of course!

PSV are thru to the Europa knock out rounds where they’ll face Sevilla. They also current sit 3 in the Eredivisie
Feynoord 33pts
Ajax 30
PSV 30 (5 back on GD)
AZ 29

The next club is on 24pts.

All of this to say, I suspect Brands has a plan for spending the Gakpo cash to balance the squad better. Definitely a high risk gamble to sell the guy who has a hand in half your goals, but this is what PSV does and does well.

 

[teddykgb]

Selling him isn’t a problem. Selling him for a curiously low fee is. It’s hard not to imagine that they couldn’t have gotten more and been able to fix more of those problems with the extra money. I mostly expected to see PSV buying a bunch of players today and that yesterday’s deal was needed to make that happen but if they’re just heading into the market now with this cash then I have to wonder if Brands has lost it

 

[bosox4283]

Matheus Cunha from Atlético to Wolves got £44m. Technically a loan & obligation to buy…but wow.

That’s a lot of money. I like the player but that’s the kind of spending that can kill a club (ask me how I know).

Feels a little like Villa and Coutinho.

I both like this move and don't like this move.

In terms of finances, Atletico needs revenue, so the team was a bit forced to sell Cunha (and Atletico will need to sell another player or two to make up for the lost revenue from not making the group stages of the Champions League and not even making Europa League). But, at the same time, I struggle to see how Atletico has such an instable financial situation after 11 years of massive success under Simeone. So, it's frustrating to have to be a seller rather than a buyer, but if the team can make a sizable profit and move a large salary, it's a good move given the situation Atleti are in.

In terms of football, I think Cunha can be electric and has the ability to improve, but he's currently inconsistent and struggles to score. Maybe Diego Costa will serve as a mentor and perhaps all Cunha needs is to get out of Simeone's system to thrive. I like Cunha's intensity and his potential, so the deal could work out great for the Wolves.

 

[67YAZ]

A couple tidbits from this Guardian piece on United’s striker search:

the Liverpool fee for Gakpo could climb as high as £50m.

United are limited in what they can spend right now with the team up for sale, so they came to PSV with a loan to buy offer that wasn’t as attractive as Liverpool hitting the buy-it-now button.