The way too early 2017 redraft thread

bosox79

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This is shaping up to be an interesting class. Going in, the class was supposed to be incredibly deep but lacking that franchise talent, but Fultz was close. The class is living up to the deep billing, but Fultz is looking more and more like a bust.

1. Tatum- Goes without saying. His shot wasn't falling in the early going but it's clear he's improved his overall game. He looks to facilitate more.

2. Donovan Mitchell: Big riser, though I think he's like 90% of the way to his ceiling. He's already really good and like Tatum, is looking to facilitate more.

3. De'Aaron Fox: I almost wanted to put him 2nd but I'm being conservative due to it being 11 games. He's taken a huge step forward this year and has improved in pretty much every area of the game. There were certain polls done last year and while Fox didn't rank out the highest, he was voted the most likely to be a generational talent. If he keeps it up, by the end of the year, he could be 1.

4. Lonzo Ball: He could easily by higher depending on if you think his early shooting performance is due to improvement. Hard to get a measure on how he's improved in other areas because of the LeBron James factor.

5. Dennis Smith: Also ooks to have improved his shooting in the early going but hasn't shown improvement elsewhere yet. His assist rate is down considerably but part of that is due to Doncic.

6. Lauri Markkanen: Hasn't played yet this season but he had a really good year last year and fits into today's NBA really well.

After this, it gets more iffy and into personal preference/bias because it's still too early to know.

7. Zach Collins: Rim protecting stretch big who's made considerable gains this summer.
8. Kuzma
9. Ntilikina
10. Isaac
11. Jarrett Allen
12. Monk
13. John Collins
14. Josh Hart

Can easily make cases for Bam, OG, Josh Jackson and others too though. Tons of talent.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I linked to this Ringer piece in the Tatum thread but it’s good fodder here too:

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/11/13/18089898/nba-2017-draft-class-progress

If you’re a Josh Jackson hater, their write-up on him is a must read. The opening:

Jackson has been abysmal. He’s shooting 25 percent from 3, 47.1 percent from the line, and averaging more turnovers (2.7) and fouls (2.4) than assists (1.5) and rebounds (2.0). Suns head coach Igor Kokoskov has decreased Jackson’s role because he has other young players more deserving of opportunity. It’s not just that Jackson, 21, has been slow to develop on offense. It’s that his defense, a defining trait that made him a top prospect, has been equally disastrous.
 

nighthob

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A year and a half ago I compared Jackson to Marcus Smart, an offensive jack of all trades with limited upside on that end of the floor whose real impact was going to come on the other end.

But what he really is is Marcus’ Evil Twin. Jackson is a real malingerer that’s shown nothing but a propensity to coast on defense when he isn’t getting his way on the other end. The Suns should really move him on to a vet team for whatever they can get at this point.
 

Kliq

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Tatum, Mitchell and Fox are my locked in Top 3. I liked Fox coming out of college and I think he was the victim of what is a common occurrence in the NBA. He had a perfectly fine rookie season, but was overshadowed by Tatum and Mitchell and was stuck playing on a losing team in a small market. That he looks to be making a leap in year two shouldn't be that surprising given his pedigree, but I don't think a lot of people were talking about the De'Aaron Fox leap heading into the season. A big thing for him is that his major question mark during the draft was outside shooting, and he's hit 44 percent from downtown this season, which even in a limited sample size (43 total attempts) is a great sign.

Lonzo is an interesting case. I think he'll be a very solid NBA player but probably won't be able to justify going #2 in the draft when so much talent was taken after him. He really isn't in the best situation in LA with LeBron, but maybe that will change. I see him having a career like Ricky Rubio.
 

Imbricus

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If you’re a Josh Jackson hater, their write-up on him is a must read.
Yeah, Jackson seems to be a mess, just based on the box scores. Not surprisingly, he's not getting much playing time. Thank God he blew off his practice session with Brad and Danny.

On the redraft: With all due respect to Tatum, I think most people would flip him and Mitchell. A lot of people are high on Ntilikina, but I still don't get it; I'm not sure I'd put him in the top 15. His shooting line looks pretty poor, and the few times I've seen him, the most impressive stuff has come out of the mouths of the announcers lauding his potential. Allen has taken a nice step forward this year, so I could see him as high as 11. Wherever you put Kuzma is going to be controversial: some will claim he's top 5/top 10, others wouldn't put him in the lottery.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Meh. I think Jackson blew off the workout because his agent garnered he was never really in the mix;’so why bother risking a workout that had no upside? Ainge knew who he wanted and played Philly like a fiddle.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Meh. I think Jackson blew off the workout because his agent garnered he was never really in the mix;’so why bother risking a workout that had no upside? Ainge knew who he wanted and played Philly like a fiddle.
Even if this wasn't the case it was Jackson's agent who made the prudent decision to avoid him being drafted by Boston just as Ball did and Dunn's agent made himself unattractive to the Celtics the previous year. With all the drama about our young guys getting minutes as they fight for numbers and their new contract it is not difficult to see why these agents were avoiding a minutes crunch in Boston. We discussed it back then but now we are seeing it firsthand. Today's representative aren't like those a generation ago.....these guys are by and large real good at their jobs.
 

bosox79

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Even if this wasn't the case it was Jackson's agent who made the prudent decision to avoid him being drafted by Boston just as Ball did and Dunn's agent made himself unattractive to the Celtics the previous year. With all the drama about our young guys getting minutes as they fight for numbers and their new contract it is not difficult to see why these agents were avoiding a minutes crunch in Boston. We discussed it back then but now we are seeing it firsthand. Today's representative aren't like those a generation ago.....these guys are by and large real good at their jobs.

And now Ball and Jackson are getting considerably less minutes than last year. Funny how that works.
 

The Social Chair

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Even if this wasn't the case it was Jackson's agent who made the prudent decision to avoid him being drafted by Boston just as Ball did and Dunn's agent made himself unattractive to the Celtics the previous year. With all the drama about our young guys getting minutes as they fight for numbers and their new contract it is not difficult to see why these agents were avoiding a minutes crunch in Boston. We discussed it back then but now we are seeing it firsthand. Today's representative aren't like those a generation ago.....these guys are by and large real good at their jobs.
Dunn and Jackson have little to no brand recognition. Tatum is already a high profile star and will get a max contract soon enough. Jaylen Brown also has a much higher profile than either of those guys and will also get a max deal with somebody.

Hell even Terry Rozier got a spread in GQ before the season.

You've been pushing this narrative for two years yet all the evidence shows that being a young player on the Celtics is good for your career.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Dunn and Jackson have little to no brand recognition. Tatum is already a high profile star and will get a max contract soon enough. Jaylen Brown also has a much higher profile than either of those guys and will also get a max deal with somebody.

Hell even Terry Rozier got a spread in GQ before the season.

You've been pushing this narrative for two years yet all the evidence shows that being a young player on the Celtics is good for your career.
It isn't a narrative. The agents didn't have their clients workout with the Celtics due to a numbers crunch. As of today, Rozier is bitching about playing time that likely is from his representation looking to get him moved this winter and Jaylen appears uncertain about everything basketball.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, Jackson seems to be a mess, just based on the box scores. Not surprisingly, he's not getting much playing time. Thank God he blew off his practice session with Brad and Danny.
I think the only way it would have mattered to Boston is if Tatum was off the board at #3. JJ was never anything more than a backup plan for the worst case scenario.

On the redraft: With all due respect to Tatum, I think most people would flip him and Mitchell.
Casual fans, maybe. GMs would likely go with the younger, taller, longer player with a ton of projection left in his game that’s also demonstrated that he can play at an all star level. Mitchell is already developed physically. He will get more efficient as a volume scorer, but Tatum is the guy GMs want in the pace & space era.
 

Jimbodandy

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It isn't a narrative. The agents didn't have their clients workout with the Celtics due to a numbers crunch. As of today, Rozier is bitching about playing time that likely is from his representation looking to get him moved this winter and Jaylen appears uncertain about everything basketball.
I agree with your point about agents and their wisdom about getting their guys in the best position to play minutes. And usually that's a good way to get exposure.

I'll never understand why you pounce on any opportunity to say something negative about Jaylen. Ten years from now, he could be coming off a bunch of AS games and comfortably settled in as a top-30ish player, and somewhere you'll be posting about how he still doesn't make enough plays for his teammates or something.
 

lovegtm

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It isn't a narrative. The agents didn't have their clients workout with the Celtics due to a numbers crunch. As of today, Rozier is bitching about playing time that likely is from his representation looking to get him moved this winter and Jaylen appears uncertain about everything basketball.
This is all true. Now write about the part where Tatum is getting a max deal barring injury, Brown likely will, and Rozier is the the face of a shoe line. Honestly, Rozier probably has better brand recognition than De'Aaron Fox, which is crazy.

The agents for Jackson et al definitely thought they were doing the best for their clients, but it turns out being a Celtic is good for business. It's an interesting and counterintuitive story precisely because of the talent crunch the Cs have.
 

moondog80

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This is all true. Now write about the part where Tatum is getting a max deal barring injury, Brown likely will, and Rozier is the the face of a shoe line. Honestly, Rozier probably has better brand recognition than De'Aaron Fox, which is crazy.

The agents for Jackson et al definitely thought they were doing the best for their clients, but it turns out being a Celtic is good for business. It's an interesting and counterintuitive story precisely because of the talent crunch the Cs have.
Being a good player is good for business.
 

nighthob

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I agree with this. And I would have Mitchell and Tatum as 1A and 1B
People get lost in the PPG, but he's an inefficient scorer. He'll ultimately get his efficiency to above average, but there just isn't any projection left with him. He's under 6'3" in shoes, so his current 215 is probably what he can handle. As Smart found, bulking up when you're already the size of an NFL safety carries diminishing returns.

Then there's also the issue of that Dwyane Wade game in 2019. I have a lot of trouble seeing how you build a contender around a guy like Westbrook, Oladipo, or Mitchell. Don't get me wrong, it's fun watching those guys play. For someone else.

Tatum has a lot of physical projection left and is already an efficient scorer (despite his early season struggles this year, he's still scoring more efficiently than Mitchell). So he's still 1A.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is all true. Now write about the part where Tatum is getting a max deal barring injury, Brown likely will, and Rozier is the the face of a shoe line. Honestly, Rozier probably has better brand recognition than De'Aaron Fox, which is crazy.

The agents for Jackson et al definitely thought they were doing the best for their clients, but it turns out being a Celtic is good for business. It's an interesting and counterintuitive story precisely because of the talent crunch the Cs have.
Ok I'll bite. Tatum gets max regardless of where he plays because he's proven to be really good.

Rozier can't get the minutes he deserves in his year entering FA. How is this good for business? Jaylen is in his 3rd year and about to be benched due to roster redundancy making his future earning potential in question. I certainly wouldn't peg him for a max based on his most recent play.
 

nighthob

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Any team that gives Jaylen Brown a max contract is going to regret it. I hope that team is not the Celtics.
I think that any team that has the ability to bump Brown into a scoring role is going to be happy with the results. I think Atlanta is a good bet to come calling this summer as they could really use a scorer to go along with Trae Young.

Of course part of this depends on where the Hawks are in the draft, if they end up 3-5 and can't get Barrett or Williamson then I think they'd probably go really hard after Brown, if they ended up with Barrett in the draft that'd change the calculus some.